Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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Hey Curtis! I don't think it will have much of an impact. When does the low get cranked up will determine how far NW or SE that it tracks. A lot of warm air advection too so it will be strong enough IMO to overcome the snow covered ground. Second, the snow is settling and melting / compacting today now that we're above freezing. A few snow showers tonight and tomorrow and we may even hit the 40s on Tuesday so much of the snow will probably be gone anyway prior to the next system rolling in.snowlover wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 11:52 am Dumb question: With the over achieving snow here today, will that help to keep temperatures lower over the next few days? Which could have a hand in helping keep things colder for the next storm?
Just wishful thinking on my part, as we can never have enough snow!
Absolutely! An overachieving snow storm today and a dominating Bengals win. Can't ask for anything more right now.
Late Jan or at the beginning of Feb, we maybe doing this all over again with another one of those nail biter type systems.
The next one to me in the pipeline is like Sat night thru Sun night. Right now models favor rain, maybe some snow for the area but like you, I'm more focused on the current system. I am also wondering if the snowpack will assist with a better track for that system I am speaking of. We shall see!tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 3:44 pm I know we have had a few systems and the extended has been put to the side. More snow cover will be to the north and west after this system so how does this affect the pattern later this week into early next week. Looks more like a zonal flow next weekend into early next week so you have weaker systems in the pipeline. If you get these weaker systems you can still get that southwest wind over colder air and the snow/rain line is usually a little further south especially in late January and early February. I know this weekend the Euro was calling for a big warm up but I believe that models is starting to back off some and I agree. The gfs was probably to cold and is heading towards a more seasonal pattern in terms of temps. Way too early for any forecast of a storm as there will pieces of energy around but which one will take off and when is almost impossible this far out.
Hey Tim, as that Arctic air tries to move out of here in time for the warm up on Sunday with rain (according to the GFS) you have to wonder if the snow cover along with the snow showers later Thursday and Friday adding a little more to the ground could affect Sunday's precip type? Then as I've read some of the post on here and seen the models for mid week next week I'm statring to lick my chops on that one. The 0Z GFS definitely has some more nail biters over the next two weeks.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:45 am Going to talk a little about the system later this weekend. Doing this while I wait on info from the mid-day models concerning the system on Wednesday. A true arctic front is working its way south later this week and with a good dose of snow just to the north and west of us this kind of front can push further south than models show and the reason is they usually have not computed snow of the ground in the current output. Once we get to Thursday with the snow on the ground I believe models will show this front further south and chances of snow go up for us.
Hey Joe, you are correct and with a decent snow pack to the north and west the front will be able to move further south. Then next week I see some bigger storms as the arctic air will be at least nearby and a nice warm ridge over Florida. This kind of set up can fire up some big storms and especially the east coast. Way to early but the set up this far out bodes well for a bigger storm or two.winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:01 amHey Tim, as that Arctic air tries to move out of here in time for the warm up on Sunday with rain (according to the GFS) you have to wonder if the snow cover along with the snow showers later Thursday and Friday adding a little more to the ground could affect Sunday's precip type? Then as I've read some of the post on here and seen the models for mid week next week I'm statring to lick my chops on that one. The 0Z GFS definitely has some more nail biters over the next two weeks.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:45 am Going to talk a little about the system later this weekend. Doing this while I wait on info from the mid-day models concerning the system on Wednesday. A true arctic front is working its way south later this week and with a good dose of snow just to the north and west of us this kind of front can push further south than models show and the reason is they usually have not computed snow of the ground in the current output. Once we get to Thursday with the snow on the ground I believe models will show this front further south and chances of snow go up for us.
May be the first time in awhile that we are seeing things different on a storm Les. I believe the arctic front slides south of here and since the storm on Sunday is not overly strong we are on the correct side of the front for overriding precip and that would be in the form of snow. We have plenty of time to watch this but that is my first call on how the Sunday system may play out.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:12 am The pattern is absolutely loaded with systems to track! Are we on the good side or bad side of the boundary for snow lovers? A lot of nail biters for sure are in our future. Concerning this weekends system, the SE Ridge is fighting the front off from dropping in here so it's rain. We need the SE ridge to get knocked down a peg for an all snow event with that one.
That is very possible Tim that the front can get south of here, but the SE Ridge is def a concern. The wave will ride the baroclinic boundary wherever that happens to be. What I think is that the front gets hung up to our NW so it's rain but after that system, then the cold should be able to get in here for future systems to work with. No doubt, since we are 5 days or so away from the weekend system, changes can still occur for sure.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:19 amMay be the first time in awhile that we are seeing things different on a storm Les. I believe the arctic front slides south of here and since the storm on Sunday is not overly strong we are on the correct side of the front for overriding precip and that would be in the form of snow. We have plenty of time to watch this but that is my first call on how the Sunday system may play out.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:12 am The pattern is absolutely loaded with systems to track! Are we on the good side or bad side of the boundary for snow lovers? A lot of nail biters for sure are in our future. Concerning this weekends system, the SE Ridge is fighting the front off from dropping in here so it's rain. We need the SE ridge to get knocked down a peg for an all snow event with that one.
Great question. So far no and if we continue to see systems rolling across the nation we should be fine. If the Polar Vortex makes a stronger push later next month we may need to worry about that but once you get into later February suppression is less of a concern but not completely gone.
None whatsoever from me thanks to the SE Ridge. I'm way more concerned about systems tracking too far NW like the current one coming in. The global models are running much colder then their ensemble counterparts at the present time. We'll just have to wait and see how things look after Wednesday's low is by us.
totally agree with this. I am more worried about a SE ridge then anything. still think the OV in general will be in prime spot for a big dawg in the next couple weeks though.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:11 amNone whatsoever from me thanks to the SE Ridge. I'm way more concerned about systems tracking too far NW like the current one coming in. The global models are running much colder then their ensemble counterparts at the present time. We'll just have to wait and see how things look after Wednesday's low is by us.
