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Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:51 am
by cloudy72
Matt may be the golden winner for a change this go-around!
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:57 am
by tron777
MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:50 am
I've learned to be happy with whatever we get and know there's a good chance we'll miss cashing in by the north or south.
We had to wait until Feb for action basically last winter so tracking something in early January this year is great. I think we'll have more threats down the road a piece in January as well.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:58 am
by tron777
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:51 am
Matt may be the golden winner for a change this go-around!
I agree... We could see a bump north or south still but anything major is probably not going to happen this close to start time. Energy should be sampled on the 0Z run tonight.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:05 am
by MJSun
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:57 am
MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:50 am
I've learned to be happy with whatever we get and know there's a good chance we'll miss cashing in by the north or south.
We had to wait until Feb for action basically last winter so tracking something in early January this year is great. I think we'll have more threats down the road a piece in January as well.
Here's hoping! When my husband, who is at best "meh" about snow, says he wants a good snowfall... You know it's been awhile!
Screenshot_20220104-100422.png
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:12 am
by fyrfyter
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:49 am
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:47 am
Seems like it has just settled down to what every other model has shown.
Yep. 1-3" call looks solid. Less north, more south.
Agree- thinking the exact same thing.
I guess the only magical options that remain are- timing, does it tap the GoM, and does it round the trough earlier.
A decent little snowfall to start what has been a warm and lackluster winter through December.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:35 am
by nkyoutdoors
Just saying hi and checking in! Hahaha. Took the chance of snow to get me in here.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:36 am
by tron777
12Z RGEM scrapes the SE Crew... nothing for the rest of us.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:36 am
by tron777
nkyoutdoors wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:35 am
Just saying hi and checking in! Hahaha. Took the chance of snow to get me in here.
Well it's about time!
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:59 am
by tron777
A lot of the issue is that the storm moving thru the Lakes today is stronger then originally expected so heights are lower ahead of our system. As a result, it's not able to amplify enough for us.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:00 am
by tron777
12Z GFS has light snow along / S of the river. Dry to the north.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:11 am
by Bgoney
Barely a Surface reflection on the map for the low , looks like it never entered TN. 12z GFS QPF
gfs12.PNG
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:12 am
by BookNerdCarp
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:51 am
Matt may be the golden winner for a change this go-around!
Don't jinx me!!! LOL
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:24 am
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:11 am
Barely a Surface reflection on the map for the low , looks like it never entered TN. 12z GFS QPF
gfs12.PNG
Low doesn't pop until in extreme Western NC. Way too late.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:50 am
by tron777
12Z GEFS Mean has...
0.5" - I-70 Crew
N Cincy burbs: 1"
Metro: 1.5"
SE Crew 2-3"
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:54 am
by tron777
12Z CMC is almost a swing and a miss... 1" or so SE Crew that's about it.
12Z UKIE is virtually nothing north of the River. Maybe 0.5 to 1" for NKY Metro counties. 1-2" SE Crew
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:54 am
by BookNerdCarp
What is it showing in terms of time frame - start/finish
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:04 pm
by tron777
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:54 am
What is it showing in terms of time frame - start/finish
I think it is going to be a Thurs afternoon and evening event. Wrapping up maybe as late as midnight or so down by you. It's a quick hitter.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:14 pm
by cloudy72
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:50 am
12Z GEFS Mean has...
0.5" - I-70 Crew
N Cincy burbs: 1"
Metro: 1.5"
SE Crew 2-3"
Here are the individual members.....couple nice hits, but a lotta nothing (at least for us I-70 folk)! LOL
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ecentus-snow_total_multimember_panel-1567600.png
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:18 pm
by tron777
I just hope the bleeding stops or even I won't get much of anything.
The good news... BG should be back in action with SnowTalk! tomorrow per a post on his Facebook page.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:36 pm
by Bgoney
I wasn't kidding a couple days ago when I said , "let the games begin" . So far 12z suite is playing the game of pulling the rug out from under us.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:39 pm
by MJSun
C'mon big money, no whammies!
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:48 pm
by young pup
If there is a data transfer problem. Would that mean that data could be bad?
0988E5FC-11B1-47D7-8C31-73F54C4D3B64.png
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:03 pm
by tron777
young pup wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:48 pm
If there is a data transfer problem. Would that mean that data could be bad? 0988E5FC-11B1-47D7-8C31-73F54C4D3B64.png
Probably server issues so the model data would be delayed as a result.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:07 pm
by tron777
MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:39 pm
C'mon big money, no whammies!
12z Euro not a lot of change. Mainly a S of the river yet.
Whammy.jpg
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:08 pm
by tron777
12Z Euro QPF:
N of the River, nothing.
CVG - 0.03"
FGX - 0.10"
Well that didn't take long to analyze that run.
