1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Some

[cloudy72]

Matt may be the golden winner for a change this go-around!

[tron777]

I've learned to be happy with whatever we get and know there's a good chance we'll miss cashing in by the north or south.

We had to wait until Feb for action basically last winter so tracking something in early January this year is great. I think we'll have more threats down the road a piece in January as well.

[tron777]

Matt may be the golden winner for a change this go-around!

I agree... We could see a bump north or south still but anything major is probably not going to happen this close to start time. Energy should be sampled on the 0Z run tonight.

[MJSun]

I've learned to be happy with whatever we get and know there's a good chance we'll miss cashing in by the north or south.

We had to wait until Feb for action basically last winter so tracking something in early January this year is great. I think we'll have more threats down the road a piece in January as well.

Here's hoping! When my husband, who is at best "meh" about snow, says he wants a good snowfall... You know it's been awhile!

Screenshot_20220104-100422.png

[fyrfyter]

Seems like it has just settled down to what every other model has shown.

Yep. 1-3" call looks solid. Less north, more south.

Agree- thinking the exact same thing.

I guess the only magical options that remain are- timing, does it tap the GoM, and does it round the trough earlier.

A decent little snowfall to start what has been a warm and lackluster winter through December.

[nkyoutdoors]

Just saying hi and checking in! Hahaha. Took the chance of snow to get me in here.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM scrapes the SE Crew... nothing for the rest of us.

[tron777]

Just saying hi and checking in! Hahaha. Took the chance of snow to get me in here.

Well it's about time!

[tron777]

A lot of the issue is that the storm moving thru the Lakes today is stronger then originally expected so heights are lower ahead of our system. As a result, it's not able to amplify enough for us.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has light snow along / S of the river. Dry to the north.

[Bgoney]

Barely a Surface reflection on the map for the low , looks like it never entered TN. 12z GFS QPF

gfs12.PNG

[BookNerdCarp]

Matt may be the golden winner for a change this go-around!

Don't jinx me!!! LOL

[tron777]

Barely a Surface reflection on the map for the low , looks like it never entered TN. 12z GFS QPF



gfs12.PNG

Low doesn't pop until in extreme Western NC. Way too late.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS Mean has...

0.5" - I-70 Crew
N Cincy burbs: 1"
Metro: 1.5"
SE Crew 2-3"

[tron777]

12Z CMC is almost a swing and a miss... 1" or so SE Crew that's about it.
12Z UKIE is virtually nothing north of the River. Maybe 0.5 to 1" for NKY Metro counties. 1-2" SE Crew

[BookNerdCarp]

What is it showing in terms of time frame - start/finish

[tron777]

What is it showing in terms of time frame - start/finish

I think it is going to be a Thurs afternoon and evening event. Wrapping up maybe as late as midnight or so down by you. It's a quick hitter.

[cloudy72]

12Z GEFS Mean has...

0.5" - I-70 Crew
N Cincy burbs: 1"
Metro: 1.5"
SE Crew 2-3"

Here are the individual members.....couple nice hits, but a lotta nothing (at least for us I-70 folk)! LOL

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ecentus-snow_total_multimember_panel-1567600.png

[tron777]

I just hope the bleeding stops or even I won't get much of anything. The good news... BG should be back in action with SnowTalk! tomorrow per a post on his Facebook page.

[Bgoney]

I wasn't kidding a couple days ago when I said , "let the games begin" . So far 12z suite is playing the game of pulling the rug out from under us.

[MJSun]

C'mon big money, no whammies!

[young pup]

If there is a data transfer problem. Would that mean that data could be bad?

0988E5FC-11B1-47D7-8C31-73F54C4D3B64.png

[tron777]

If there is a data transfer problem. Would that mean that data could be bad? 0988E5FC-11B1-47D7-8C31-73F54C4D3B64.png

Probably server issues so the model data would be delayed as a result.

[tron777]

C'mon big money, no whammies!

12z Euro not a lot of change. Mainly a S of the river yet.

Whammy.jpg

[tron777]

12Z Euro QPF:

N of the River, nothing.
CVG - 0.03"
FGX - 0.10"

Well that didn't take long to analyze that run.