November 2021 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good afternoon (almost evening) everyone! Not much to talk about in the short term other then frosts / freezes. We will see warming temps this weekend and going into next week. We should crack 60+ (above normal temps) by early next week. However, it should be short lived. Our next chance for significant rain looks to be around Thurs / Fri next week. The question after that is do we turn colder for a more sustainable period of time or not? Are models rushing it a bit as is typical?

The first image are the 0Z Ensembles models from the GFS Ensemble, Canadian Ensemble, and the Euro Ensemble.


EnsModels0Z.png


The only 12Z Ensemble I ran across was the Euro Ensemble, so here it is:


EPS12Z.png


We'll see what happens but if correct, I suspect a colder pattern to settle in sometime during the 2nd half of November, The question is... win?

Les I saw those and of course the gfs which tends to hurry things was the first one I saw. However, when the other two came in it makes you look twice. Going to wait on the forecast and believe their will a system and a cold front but the key is will a bigger trough dig itself out and we have an extended period of cold or just a 2-3 day and back to more normal like November weather. Going to see what the mjo shows and that may be a key as well but at the moment the mjo is weak at best.

[tron777]

Les I saw those and of course the gfs which tends to hurry things was the first one I saw. However, when the other two came in it makes you look twice. Going to wait on the forecast and believe their will a system and a cold front but the key is will a bigger trough dig itself out and we have an extended period of cold or just a 2-3 day and back to more normal like November weather. Going to see what the mjo shows and that may be a key as well but at the moment the mjo is weak at best.

Def some uncertainty for sure Tim. Agree with you on that. We watch and wait of course. I'm not seeing a strong signal from the MJO from any of the MJO models on the CPC's website. Even Kyle MacRitchie's experiential MJO model shows a weak signal as well. IMO its not a factor if this is correct.

realtimemjo.png

[tron777]

Wow... much colder this morning then I thought. Props to Tim for making the right call. 28 currently at CVG and widespread mid and upper 20s everywhere. The growing season is now over.

[tron777]

26 here!

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and glad the growing season is over and maybe I will quit sneezing. Beautiful stretch of weather as we have cold mornings and cool afternoons with plenty of sunshine for several days. Is this the calm before the storm and it may well be that and starting next week more in the way of storminess. Lots of question about later next week and though a few may be answered early I believe we need to see how the pattern evolves. I agree with you Les about the mjo and though a non-factor in terms of a strong signal and will this continue as we know last year I believe the mjo headed for phase 3-5 in later November which are not good phases if you want winter weather.I know some metd saw the same pattern happening this year but I understand La Nina is happening again but their is so much more going on besides the La Nina and one of those is some decent blocking so far this autumn season.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and glad the growing season is over and maybe I will quit sneezing. Beautiful stretch of weather as we have cold mornings and cool afternoons with plenty of sunshine for several days. Is this the calm before the storm and it may well be that and starting next week more in the way of storminess. Lots of question about later next week and though a few may be answered early I believe we need to see how the pattern evolves. I agree with you Les about the mjo and though a non-factor in terms of a strong signal and will this continue as we know last year I believe the mjo headed for phase 3-5 in later November which are not good phases if you want winter weather.I know some mets saw the same pattern happening this year but I understand La Nina is happening again but their is so much more going on besides the La Nina and one of those is some decent blocking so far this autumn season.

[tpweather]

Having little in the amount of wind helped temps drop last night but the key was the sky. We were clear for the most part and so was Lexington and temps dropped into the mid-upper 20's. To the southwest in Louisville more clouds and so far the temp has only dropped to 35.

[Snowbrain2]

No accumulating snow in Chardon, Ohio so far. Did see snow and graupel, but no accumulation.
Maybe tonight into tomorrow I will see first snowfall.
Parts of NW PA. did see some snowfall, especially Erie County.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and glad the growing season is over and maybe I will quit sneezing. Beautiful stretch of weather as we have cold mornings and cool afternoons with plenty of sunshine for several days. Is this the calm before the storm and it may well be that and starting next week more in the way of storminess. Lots of question about later next week and though a few may be answered early I believe we need to see how the pattern evolves. I agree with you Les about the mjo and though a non-factor in terms of a strong signal and will this continue as we know last year I believe the mjo headed for phase 3-5 in later November which are not good phases if you want winter weather.I know some metd saw the same pattern happening this year but I understand La Nina is happening again but their is so much more going on besides the La Nina and one of those is some decent blocking so far this autumn season.

Good morning Tim... I see another flip to cold coming as we approach mid month. How long does it last remains to be seen. Very nice weather as mentioned thru about Wed of next week with a warming trend beginning this weekend. 60s which is above normal now in temps should occur by Sunday or Monday of next week and last until the cold frontal passage around Thursday or so of next week. Speaking of winter... did you see the fantasy GFS? That front comes thru as I mentioned and stalls along the Apps for a new low to move up from the south and strengthen as it does so. Of course that won't happen as modeled but just a sign of things to come when fantasy snows start to show up.

[tron777]

No accumulating snow in Chardon, Ohio so far. Did see snow and graupel, but no accumulation.
Maybe tonight into tomorrow I will see first snowfall.
Parts of NW PA. did see some snowfall, especially Erie County.

Good morning Jeff! Did you see the lake belts in the UP of Mich? Still snowing this morning and up to 11" in some places has fallen!

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and glad the growing season is over and maybe I will quit sneezing. Beautiful stretch of weather as we have cold mornings and cool afternoons with plenty of sunshine for several days. Is this the calm before the storm and it may well be that and starting next week more in the way of storminess. Lots of question about later next week and though a few may be answered early I believe we need to see how the pattern evolves. I agree with you Les about the mjo and though a non-factor in terms of a strong signal and will this continue as we know last year I believe the mjo headed for phase 3-5 in later November which are not good phases if you want winter weather.I know some metd saw the same pattern happening this year but I understand La Nina is happening again but their is so much more going on besides the La Nina and one of those is some decent blocking so far this autumn season.

Good morning Tim... I see another flip to cold coming as we approach mid month. How long does it last remains to be seen. Very nice weather as mentioned thru about Wed of next week with a warming trend beginning this weekend. 60s which is above normal now in temps should occur by Sunday or Monday of next week and last until the cold frontal passage around Thursday or so of next week. Speaking of winter... did you see the fantasy GFS? That front comes thru as I mentioned and stalls along the Apps for a new low to move up from the south and strengthen as it does so. Of course that won't happen as modeled but just a sign of things to come when fantasy snows start to show up.

I saw that Les. I agree chances of that happening are slim but the shot of cold air behind the front looks impressive for mid-November so not throwing out the chances yet.

[Bgoney]

Don't be surprised if we hit 70+ sometime next week . Strong low to the west and fairly strong high pressure to the east means southerly winds will be cranking a good chunk of the week, maybe even watch criteria, it looks impressive imo.

[tron777]

Oh I agree Tim... you can never rule out anything of course. I just believe that the system will track to our west and I think we'll need to watch for strong t-storms should the timing of the cold front arrive during peak heating.

[cloudy72]

27 here

[tron777]

Don't be surprised if we hit 70+ sometime next week . Strong low to the west and fairly strong high pressure to the east means southerly winds will be cranking a good chunk of the week, maybe even watch criteria, it looks impressive imo.

Def will see mid to upper 60s and if clouds don't kill us with a strong SW flow, I agree. 70 would be achievable.

[tron777]

Now that the sun is up... major frost here... probably a hard freeze since I got down to 26. That ought to assist with getting those leaves down since we have a few more nights like this to go before we warm up again.

[tron777]

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/03/snowta ... -blog-113/

[Sargent51]

23 in Maineville/Morrow area...

[young pup]

Light frost around the house. Once i got out and about. More open areas was heavier.

[tron777]

27 officially at CVG this morning.

[tron777]

12Z GFS shows what I think is a more believable solution. The front comes in on Thursday of next week with some rain. It stalls then a new low tracks to our West towards Chicago with t-storms on Friday. Then we turn colder by next weekend. That makes more sense to me then the fantasy snow storm solution from the overnight run.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS shows what I think is a more believable solution. The front comes in on Thursday of next week with some rain. It stalls then a new low tracks to our West towards Chicago with t-storms on Friday. Then we turn colder by next weekend. That makes more sense to me then the fantasy snow storm solution from the overnight run.

Les you beat me to the punch and I agree 100p/c . This solution makes more sense plus the cold is here for a few days and should ease off. Maybe a 2 days of below normal temps and should see a return to milder weather once again.

[tron777]

So far from my vantage point, I foresee a more active second half of November then the first half. Should see some cold shots of air as well. Any snow TBD...

Every GEFS member agrees with the OP GFS for the next system around Thurs / Fri time frame, next week. Some guidance is hinting at a front trying to come in earlier around Tues or Wed before the main system arrives. Not yet sold on that, but sometime next week, we do look to turn much warmer, much windier, and much more active. I'd spend this weekend getting outside things done if I were you.

[tron777]

Hopefully this is an encouraging sign. It fits in with the -WPO talk in our Early Winter Thoughts thread.

[tron777]

12Z CMC has a much slower solution for next week. We're dry until Friday then the front never does make it thru. At day 10, which is next Sat, a low forms and deepens along the southern end of the front. Low location is over Central MS, then the model stops there.