Solar Activity

[Bgoney]

Developing:

A major, long-duration solar flare measuring X1.0 at its peak erupted from geoeffective Active Region 2887 at 15:35 UTC on October 28, 2021. The event started at 15:17 and ended at 15:48 UTC.

The event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 263 km/s. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event.

Additionally, a Type IV Radio emission was registered at 15:32 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

The region responsible is located in geoeffective location, making Earth-directed CME very likely.

100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu at 16:35 UTC - an enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

[Bgoney]

The biggest flares are known as "X-class flares" based on a classification system that divides solar flares according to their strength. The smallest ones are A-class (near background levels), followed by B, C, M and X. Similar to the Richter scale for earthquakes, each letter represents a 10-fold increase in energy output. So an X is ten times an M and 100 times a C. Within each letter class there is a finer scale from 1 to 9.



C-class and smaller flares are too weak to noticeably affect Earth. M-class flares can cause brief radio blackouts at the poles and minor radiation storms that might endanger astronauts.

And then come the X-class flares. Although X is the last letter, there are flares more than 10 times the power of an X1, so X-class flares can go higher than 9. The most powerful flare measured with modern methods was in 2003, during the last solar maximum, and it was so powerful that it overloaded the sensors measuring it. The sensors cut out at X28.

The biggest X-class flares are by far the largest explosions in the solar system and are awesome to watch. Loops tens of times the size of Earth leap up off the sun's surface when the sun's magnetic fields cross over each other and reconnect. In the biggest events, this reconnection process can produce as much energy as a billion hydrogen bombs.

If they're directed at Earth, such flares and associated CMEs can create long lasting radiation storms that can harm satellites, communications systems, and even ground-based technologies and power grids. X-class flares on December 5 and December 6, 2006, for example, triggered a CME that interfered with GPS signals being sent to ground-based receivers.

NASA and NOAA – as well as the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and others -- keep a constant watch on the sun to monitor for X-class flares and their associated magnetic storms. With advance warning many satellites and spacecraft can be protected from the worst effects.

[tron777]

Good thread... thanks for starting it Bgoney. For those who are new to the solar game, you can get a lot of info on https://spaceweather.com/ I like looking at that info from time to time. You can def tell that the solar activity has been ramping up a little bit from the deep solar min then we have been in the last few years. Overall, I still think that the solar activity will continue to be lower then model projections as has been the case for the last couple of decades.

[tpweather]

Thanks Bgoney. That is so interesting and something I really need to study. I love this kind of info.

[Bgoney]

No problem, it's another fascinating contributor to our climate which the dollars to further study the science and understanding has been severely dwarfed by AGW theories.

Our magnetic field that sheilds the planet ain't what it used to be, even small class CMEs have affected electronics more so lately than just a few decades ago


Les, if you want to lump it with the earthquake and volcano thread feel free to do so

[tron777]

We can keep this thread for solar activity discussion. CME's, sunspots, solar cycles, etc and keep the other thread strictly for volcanoes and earthquakes. It's all good by me.

[Bgoney]

Not sure what each video denotes just yet , other than one hell of an explosion..and ejection. Can you imagine

[tron777]

Those videos are simply fantastic! I assume they were taken with the Helioscope at the Space Weather Observatory? Whatever the case, it truly is amazing to watch. As most know, the sun drives our climate and sustains life on Earth so it's important that we try and understand the suns role. We know very little about it as most things in our atmosphere. We're just scratching the surface with the knowledge we have at this time.

[Bgoney]

Latest:

Solar activity reached high levels on October 28, 2021, with a pair of M-class flares from geoeffective AR 2887 at 07:40 and 10:28 UTC, followed by a major X1.0 flare at 15:35 UTC which generated an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). As a result, a G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for October 30.

A fast, asymmetric Halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 15:48 UTC, with CME impact at Earth expected early to mid October 30.1

A G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for October 30 and G2 - Moderate for October 31.

Potential impacts (G3 - Strong):
(area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude)

Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

[tron777]

It'll be interesting to see what is affected by this over the weekend. Glad I don't have satellite TV for starters.

[Bgoney]

[Wxlrnr]

Not sure what each video denotes just yet , other than one hell of an explosion..and ejection. Can you imagine

I think the videos were taken at different wavelengths of light which shows details differently. The hot spot on the sun center lower area is the sunspot that created the X1.0 flare. It is aimed at earth so we do not see the CME as well as if it was off to the side. But the circular flash and tongue of materials is the CME.

[Wxlrnr]

https://spaceweather.com/images2021/28oct21/cme_c3.gif

This is a video taken from a satellite. It shows the CME from the side, it is the material moving at about the 2 o'clock position on the sun.

[tron777]

https://spaceweather.com/images2021/28oct21/cme_c3.gif

This is a video taken from a satellite. It shows the CME from the side, it is the material moving at about the 2 o'clock position on the sun.

Fascinating! Thanks Linn for the explanation too. Makes sense and really helps out the rest of us.

[Bgoney]

Yes thanks. I could watch pictures of the sun like that all day. It's become more fascinating than watching most on earth events.

[Wxlrnr]

My pleasure, finally glad to add something more than how much precipitation I in my back yard. I have the telescope equipment to observe the sun, but have not used it much after the eclipse. There was not much to see with the minimum. Going to get it out now that there is something to see. Too bad we will have clouds as this flare could produce aurora borealis down this way.

[tron777]

If my memory is working yeah I know... but anyway, I think I've seen the aurora borealis once this far south. Saw it a couple of times in Michigan and in Canada as well back many years ago.

[tron777]

Too bad we've got cloud cover Sat night...

aurora borealis.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

Fascinating video shots indeed!

The only aurora borealis that I ever recall having seen in person was during the summer of 1979 when my sister and I were at an Amway ranch camp in Rockford, MI.

[tpweather]

If my memory is working yeah I know... but anyway, I think I've seen the aurora borealis once this far south. Saw it a couple of times in Michigan and in Canada as well back many years ago.

I have never seen the aurora borealis and that is something I tend to do before its too late. Yes that means travel but I plan on doing a lot of that in the next 20 years. Never seen that in my life but have seen a UFO in the early 70's and my wife and I had a ghost in our previous house for about 6 months in the early 90's .

[tron777]

If my memory is working yeah I know... but anyway, I think I've seen the aurora borealis once this far south. Saw it a couple of times in Michigan and in Canada as well back many years ago.

I have never seen the aurora borealis and that is something I tend to do before its too late. Yes that means travel but I plan on doing a lot of that in the next 20 years. Never seen that in my life but have seen a UFO in the early 70's and my wife and I had a ghost in our previous house for about 6 months in the early 90's .

Wow! I'm the opposite. I've never seen a UFO nor ghosts.

[tpweather]

If my memory is working yeah I know... but anyway, I think I've seen the aurora borealis once this far south. Saw it a couple of times in Michigan and in Canada as well back many years ago.

I have never seen the aurora borealis and that is something I tend to do before its too late. Yes that means travel but I plan on doing a lot of that in the next 20 years. Never seen that in my life but have seen a UFO in the early 70's and my wife and I had a ghost in our previous house for about 6 months in the early 90's .

Wow! I'm the opposite. I've never seen a UFO nor ghosts.

Pretty wild and the UFO was in the early 70's and a craft hung in the sky for about 10 seconds and then gone. Have no ideal what kind of craft it was but interesting to see. The Ghost story is more interesting as both my wife and I start seeing a ghost of a boy in our bedroom. Neither mentioned it for about 2 months and then somehow we ended up saying something and it was wow. When the ghost was their your body was frozen and you could not move and something I will never forget. The last time the ghost showed up their were several ghosts and look like a mother,father and a few other kids and they were moving along and that was the end of seeing ghosts. Never seen one since.

[tron777]

Pretty wild and the UFO was in the early 70's and a craft hung in the sky for about 10 seconds and then gone. Have no ideal what kind of craft it was but interesting to see. The Ghost story is more interesting as both my wife and I start seeing a ghost of a boy in our bedroom. Neither mentioned it for about 2 months and then somehow we ended up saying something and it was wow. When the ghost was their your body was frozen and you could not move and something I will never forget. The last time the ghost showed up their were several ghosts and look like a mother,father and a few other kids and they were moving along and that was the end of seeing ghosts. Never seen one since.

That's a very interesting story of both accounts Tim, and not because of it being Halloween either. I wonder if there was a murder or some kind of tragedy that took place in your previous house? There's just a lot that we don't understand yet about this kind of stuff, much like the sun.

[MVWxObserver]

Hi Tim,

Glad that your ghostly encounters were at least friendly, so to speak. Your UFO sighting account is interesting, too, Bro.

[Wxlrnr]

Per Space Weather most of the energy missed the earth. Very minimal effects. May be worth watching tonight as the experts can be off on timing.