Rocktober 2021 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tpweather]

Nice warm front with Louisville in the mid 70's while Columbus in the mid 50's. The warm front will stall in the next few hours but expect 60's to make it to I-70 or so. Would not be surprised to see a little sunshine later today before more rain overnight into about noon on Monday

[MVWxObserver]

I have some cousins and their families who are "under the gun" in O'Fallon, MO near St Louis. Also some other cousins and their families in southwest IN.

[tron777]

Nice warm front with Louisville in the mid 70's while Columbus in the mid 50's. The warm front will stall in the next few hours but expect 60's to make it to I-70 or so. Would not be surprised to see a little sunshine later today before more rain overnight into about noon on Monday

Agreed Tim and if we see a peak or two of sun later, CVG should easily get past 70. 60 currently imby. Looks like we got one more band to come thru then we're done until after midnight. Sunshine prospects are also looking halfway decent in a few hours as well.

[tron777]

Heavy rain and some thunder here as that last batch comes thru.

[tpweather]

Heavy rain and some thunder here as that last batch comes thru.

Same here Les

[tron777]

Looks like about a half inch here for the day and at CVG. I think we're done now until after midnight. Even seeing a touch of sun as well right now. Up to 66. 70 is reachable.

[tpweather]

Les we have been on the same page lately which usually leads to a decent forecast. Most of the state of Missouri is under a tornado watch as we expected. Almost 80 in Louisville.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely

Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

[young pup]

Seeing some lightning and hearing thunder. Had a couple of decent downpours as well.

[young pup]

Would not be surprised to see flood watches or advisories issued for more areas soon. Getting quite a bit of rain in the area here.

[tron777]

Les we have been on the same page lately which usually leads to a decent forecast. Most of the state of Missouri is under a tornado watch as we expected. Almost 80 in Louisville.

72 here, 73 at CVG. It's a nice afternoon down our way.

[tron777]

Would not be surprised to see flood watches or advisories issued for more areas soon. Getting quite a bit of rain in the area here.

0.51" as of 5pm at CMH. 0.42" of that in the last hour.

[snowbo]

.95" here so far

[young pup]

Would not be surprised to see flood watches or advisories issued for more areas soon. Getting quite a bit of rain in the area here.

0.51" as of 5pm at CMH. 0.42" of that in the last hour.

Just ran out and checked the gauge here. 1 inch so far.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible

Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

2316 UNK 1 ESE SOUTH JACKSONVILLE MORGAN IL 3971 9022 DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF VANDALIA ROAD. TREES WERE DOWN. A FACADE WAS TORN OFF A CHURCH. (ILX)

0125 2 SSW LIBERTYVILLE ST. FRANCOIS MO 3768 9031 HOUSE COMPLETELY DESTROYED ON OLD FREDERICKTOWN RD; INJURIES UNKNOWN. (LSX)

0125 3 SE FARMINGTON ST. FRANCOIS MO 3775 9039 FOUR HOUSES DESTROYED NEAR POSSUM HOLLOW RD AND OLD FREDERICKTOWN RD. (LSX)

0156 JUNCTION CITY MADISON MO 3757 9030 NUMEROUS TREES UPROOTED/SNAPPED AND POWER POLES SNAPPED. SEVERAL METAL ROOFS LIFTED OFF OF HOUSES. (LSX)

0216 CHESTER RANDOLPH IL 3791 8982 LARGE TREES UPWARDS OF 18 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAVE BEEN UPROOTED. SMALL BOATS HAVE BEEN BLOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LSX)

0231 2 WNW STEELEVILLE RANDOLPH IL 3803 8970 MACHINE SHED MANGLED AND WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE. DEBRIS ALSO ON THE ROAD. (LSX)

0241 UNK NEW MINDEN WASHINGTON IL 3844 8937 WIND BLEW CAR OFF ROAD. (LSX)

0244 62 1 SE SCOTT AFB ST. CLAIR IL 3853 8983 AWOS STATION KBLV SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE. (LSX)

0245 UNK CHESTER RANDOLPH IL 3791 8982 FROM TWITTER: CHESTER HAS LOST ITS FIRE HOUSE. (LSX)

0247 UNK MASCOUTAH ST. CLAIR IL 3851 8981 POLE BARN LIFTED ... FLIPPED ... AND LAID ON A BUSINESS 30 FT TO THE EAST. (LSX)

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up 1.80" for Sun.

[tron777]

Rain is getting ready to roll in this morning. Looks tough for the AM commute with heavy rain. A break then more storms will develop ahead of the front as temps drop from the 60s thru the 50s. Cannot rule out a strong storm at this time.

[cloudy72]

Storm total so far has been 0.51" here but seeing some pretty heavy rain at the moment so should add to this.

[tron777]

I had a 1/2" (CVG too) going into today and the current band moving thru should easily drop another 0.25-0.50". Then we'll see if any t-storms can get going ahead of the frontal passage around midday or so.

[cloudy72]

Will be a close call on the storms this afternoon - looks like they will either fire on top of us or just to our east according to the HRRR model.