Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2021-2022

[tron777]

This would explain the nice and warm weather for us. Very little in the way of cool air here so far.

I agree Tim... typically when they are cold, we are warm and vice versa. We'll have to wait and see of any ridging can set up shop later on in Oct and early Nov. Thru mid October at the very least, it isn't happening just yet. No issues since it's extremely early in the season. Currently the PV is still weak so we'll need to keep an eye on it as we progress thru the Fall as we typically do lol

[tron777]

Accuweather's Outlook for the winter has been released just for kicks:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-w ... st/1022887

[tpweather]

Accuweather's Outlook for the winter has been released just for kicks:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-w ... st/1022887

I never thought I would say this but I agree with some of the thoughts about the upcoming winter forecast from Accuweather. The one thing that stood out and something I am relying on for my winter forecast is the strength of the La Nina. Looks to be weak and so far that is playing out. Usually when we get a weak La Nina or weak El Nino the winters around here tend to be good for cold and snow. Is it a slam dunk and no but what I have observed over the years is this tends to help the folks who love winter. The Pv staying weak of course is key and lets see how that plays out. Still need another 6 weeks or so to see how things play out but I do believe an early start to winter is likely. Starting early October I really start watching the patterns being set up and to me its like leading up to Christmas and I get very excited and can't wait to see what's under the tree.

[tron777]

I agree Tim and things look to get more interesting after mid month (Oct). I think we'll start seeing some of those stronger cold fronts coming in again from the NW.

[tron777]

[tron777]

ims2021274_alaska.gif

[dce]

This is very well written and thought out. It does not mean this prediction will be right, but the correlation JB lays out in this analog for an early start to winter is pretty overwhelming. With a likely warm October on tap, at least according to most models at this point, everything looks to be right on track for an early start to winter. I believe he wrote this in July.

https://www.cfact.org/2021/07/09/if-onl ... he-reason/

[tron777]

This is very well written and thought out. It does not mean this prediction will be right, but the correlation JB lays out in this analog for an early start to winter is pretty overwhelming. With a likely warm October on tap, at least according to most models at this point, everything looks to be right on track for an early start to winter. I believe he wrote this in July.

https://www.cfact.org/2021/07/09/if-onl ... he-reason/

It's going to be interesting to see if JB's theory holds up. We've been talking about it for different reasons on here and I am sure a lot of folks have read stuff on their own too supporting it. In addition, can we buck the warm December trend that we've had in the last decade or so? The best December since we've been around as a forum was Dec of 2010. Snowiest on record for CVG with 16.1" of snow and temps were 8 degrees below vg for the month. We've had a couple of below avg temp wise Dec's since then but only by a degree or two. Rest have been above avg. Saw 1 above avg snowfall Dec since then which was 2012, but we torched temp wise that time. So yeah... for a big time cold and snowy December, we're way overdue.

[tron777]

NEW QBO reading is in for September. The drop continues and we've picke3d up a little steam again.

June: -6.93
July: -13.17
Aug: -13.82
NEW Sept Reading: -16.56

We have a moderately negative QBO now which is fine. Just hope it can remain in that -10 to -20 range for winter. That's about perfect as far as it is concerned.

[Bgoney]

NEW QBO reading is in for September. The drop continues and we've picke3d up a little steam again.

June: -6.93
July: -13.17
Aug: -13.82
NEW Sept Reading: -16.56

We have a moderately negative QBO now which is fine. Just hope it can remain in that -10 to -20 range for winter. That's about perfect as far as it is concerned.

Thought I would repost the August QBO forecast from page 1 from the various models to compare with the actual readings. The EU being the closest for September prediction

Screenshot_20211003-094133_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

Thanks Bgoney for doing that. Do we see another decent drop for October like the Euro is saying or a slower drop like the French model has. These are the closest two models for sure at this point in time.

Larry Cosgrove has updated his newsletter and I'll put a link here for his long term discussion. Reason for me posting it is that he has some early analogs he is throwing out and most folks will be salivating when you see the analog years. They are not ENSO based by the way so he is looking at other factors (as one should). Not saying Larry will be right or anybody for that matter but anyway

https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramer ... 8d-oNkHDZ4

[tron777]

So using Larry's analogs, I am not going to dig around for 1976, but Oct of 1995 was warm, Oct of 2007 was very warm having 2 days in the 90s (which are record highs), and last Oct was basically near avg. The expectation would be for a colder pattern to come sometime in November and hang on thru December. We'll see as usual. So much to look at. Solar is still low but picking up. A mod -QBO, and a developing 2nd year Nina, which we hope remains weak along with a weaker then normal PV at this time.

[Bgoney]

LC is on my very short list of unbiased popular web Mets. I don't necessarily think he's more right than others, but his forecasts come from a sincere POV

[tron777]

LC is on my very short list of unbiased popular web Mets. I don't necessarily think he's more right than others, but his forecasts come from a sincere POV

I feel the same way and I always pay attn to what he is saying. Everybody has their successes and busts, but Larry did do very well last winter with his forecast. He is still working on this year's forecast so this was just prelim thoughts of his at this time.

[tpweather]

Great Posts folks and so much info to go over. I like many things I see but of course always looking at things that may hurt a cold and snowy winter. Does the La Nina get too strong and so far its okay but no signs of staying just at a low end so something I am watching. The QBO and will it slow down its decline because one that is too negative could be a bad sign. We know how much October gives us clues that can help us in a forecast that hopefully is more correct than not. Just glad we have so many folks on here with different ideals and yes we will argue at times but that is from passion and we all will have forecasts that are correct and other times a bust but that is because mother nature always has the winning hand.

[Bgoney]

Latest Cansips winter Outlook

FAjsV91XMAI-REA.png.767f2605039e9a6597248da6e82ad0d3.png

[tpweather]

Latest Cansips winter Outlook


FAjsV91XMAI-REA.png.767f2605039e9a6597248da6e82ad0d3.png

I must say they took today's map and used it for the winter outlook. I know nothing about cansips and will do some research before giving my final say on this product or person or combo of both.

[tron777]

Latest Cansips winter Outlook


FAjsV91XMAI-REA.png.767f2605039e9a6597248da6e82ad0d3.png

I must say they took today's map and used it for the winter outlook. I know nothing about cansips and will do some research before giving my final say on this product or person or combo of both.

If you didn't know Tim, the CAN-SIPS is Canada's version of our CFSV2 long range climate model. I don't think it's going to be correct. It is too cool with the La Nina so thus a Nina look for the upcoming winter.

[tpweather]

Latest Cansips winter Outlook


FAjsV91XMAI-REA.png.767f2605039e9a6597248da6e82ad0d3.png

I must say they took today's map and used it for the winter outlook. I know nothing about cansips and will do some research before giving my final say on this product or person or combo of both.

If you didn't know Tim, the CAN-SIPS is Canada's version of our CFSV2 long range climate model. I don't think it's going to be correct. It is too cool with the La Nina so thus a Nina look for the upcoming winter.

Thanks Les. To me it was more of a El Nino look which I may be wrong but that threw me off

[tron777]

Latest Cansips winter Outlook


FAjsV91XMAI-REA.png.767f2605039e9a6597248da6e82ad0d3.png

I must say they took today's map and used it for the winter outlook. I know nothing about cansips and will do some research before giving my final say on this product or person or combo of both.

If you didn't know Tim, the CAN-SIPS is Canada's version of our CFSV2 long range climate model. I don't think it's going to be correct. It is too cool with the La Nina so thus a Nina look for the upcoming winter.

Thanks Les. To me it was more of a El Nino look which I may be wrong but that threw me off

It's a mod to strong Nina look taking little else into consideration.

[SWC_Josh]

Been doing some poking around and research, but two analogs that show up for winter is 1976 and 1995. I feel most won’t know what that means, exactly, but a couple in here will know.

Josh

PS- Ahh it looks like others feel the same way. Especially, Cosgrove.

[SWC_Josh]

I guess with the data that some are throwing around, 1995 as I remember:

August was very warm and very wet, thanks to TS Dean and Hurricane Erin bringing 2-4” here. Very, very humid. August 2021- Not as wet, still active, but very humid.

Oct 1995, Caribbean rooted system, Opal, developed the west trough and end of summer pattern. Then mild October, for most part, few flakes end of month. This Oct looks similar. Caribbean rooted system, anticipated next week, sets up west trough. Biased mild October, cold at end, maybe few flakes.

Dec 15-Jan 10 1995-96, awesome set up with 4 modest, major snows. Cold. A bit of break in January, thaw, then cool and snow through Feb. Same for Dec 15-Jan 10, 2021-22?

Josh

[tron777]

I guess with the data that some are throwing around, 1995 as I remember:

August was very warm and very wet, thanks to TS Dean and Hurricane Erin bringing 2-4” here. Very, very humid. August 2021- Not as wet, still active, but very humid.

Oct 1995, Caribbean rooted system, Opal, developed the west trough and end of summer pattern. Then mild October, for most part, few flakes end of month. This Oct looks similar. Caribbean rooted system, anticipated next week, sets up west trough. Biased mild October, cold at end, maybe few flakes.

Dec 15-Jan 10 1995-96, awesome set up with 4 modest, major snows. Cold. A bit of break in January, thaw, then cool and snow through Feb. Same for Dec 15-Jan 10, 2021-22?

Josh

I remember it well. I was at NKU when Opal hit. Lovely walking to class with gusts to 50 mph and heavy rain falling LOL Jan of 96 saw a total of 27" at CVG for the month but the bulk of it fell in the first half of the month thanks to the Blizz of 96 which all New Englanders remember. We remember it here for one of the biggest snow storm forecast busts in recent memory. Flurries turned into 1-2" that eventually turned into a foot at CVG! Feb didn't do much for snow at CVG (couple of nice cold snaps, just bad luck with the set up in a couple of systems) but March absolutely came roaring back with temps almost 6 1/2 degrees below normal and more then double our avg March snowfall with a total of 8.4" falling. We even capped it off with a 2"+ snowfall on April Fools Day! Another thing too about 95-96 was it was very active. Tons of precip events. It was not cold, dry, and boring by any stretch of the imagination.

[SWC_Josh]

I guess with the data that some are throwing around, 1995 as I remember:

August was very warm and very wet, thanks to TS Dean and Hurricane Erin bringing 2-4” here. Very, very humid. August 2021- Not as wet, still active, but very humid.

Oct 1995, Caribbean rooted system, Opal, developed the west trough and end of summer pattern. Then mild October, for most part, few flakes end of month. This Oct looks similar. Caribbean rooted system, anticipated next week, sets up west trough. Biased mild October, cold at end, maybe few flakes.

Dec 15-Jan 10 1995-96, awesome set up with 4 modest, major snows. Cold. A bit of break in January, thaw, then cool and snow through Feb. Same for Dec 15-Jan 10, 2021-22?

Josh

I remember it well. I was at NKU when Opal hit. Lovely walking to class with gusts to 50 mph and heavy rain falling LOL Jan of 96 saw a total of 27" at CVG for the month but the bulk of it fell in the first half of the month thanks to the Blizz of 96 which all New Englanders remember. We remember it here for one of the biggest snow storm forecast busts in recent memory. Flurries turned into 1-2" that eventually turned into a foot at CVG! Feb didn't do much for snow at CVG (couple of nice cold snaps, just bad luck with the set up in a couple of systems) but March absolutely came roaring back with temps almost 6 1/2 degrees below normal and more then double our avg March snowfall with a total of 8.4" falling. We even capped it off with a 2"+ snowfall on April Fools Day! Another thing too about 95-96 was it was very active. Tons of precip events. It was not cold, dry, and boring by any stretch of the imagination.

Yeah. That Sunday morning surprise was awesome. Flurries turned to 1-2 then 3-5. I went to bed with the new update of 3-5 around midnight. Got up Sunday morning with 6-8 as the call, then NWS updated to 9-12 around 8 AM. Got 9.7”’, then add that to the 8-12 inches that fell from Dec 19-Jan 3 was not too bad.

Then a couple modest clippers added some icing on the cake before that break. But that 3-4 week period might be the best 4 week winter period I have witnessed.
Josh

[tron777]

I guess with the data that some are throwing around, 1995 as I remember:

August was very warm and very wet, thanks to TS Dean and Hurricane Erin bringing 2-4” here. Very, very humid. August 2021- Not as wet, still active, but very humid.

Oct 1995, Caribbean rooted system, Opal, developed the west trough and end of summer pattern. Then mild October, for most part, few flakes end of month. This Oct looks similar. Caribbean rooted system, anticipated next week, sets up west trough. Biased mild October, cold at end, maybe few flakes.

Dec 15-Jan 10 1995-96, awesome set up with 4 modest, major snows. Cold. A bit of break in January, thaw, then cool and snow through Feb. Same for Dec 15-Jan 10, 2021-22?

Josh

I remember it well. I was at NKU when Opal hit. Lovely walking to class with gusts to 50 mph and heavy rain falling LOL Jan of 96 saw a total of 27" at CVG for the month but the bulk of it fell in the first half of the month thanks to the Blizz of 96 which all New Englanders remember. We remember it here for one of the biggest snow storm forecast busts in recent memory. Flurries turned into 1-2" that eventually turned into a foot at CVG! Feb didn't do much for snow at CVG (couple of nice cold snaps, just bad luck with the set up in a couple of systems) but March absolutely came roaring back with temps almost 6 1/2 degrees below normal and more then double our avg March snowfall with a total of 8.4" falling. We even capped it off with a 2"+ snowfall on April Fools Day! Another thing too about 95-96 was it was very active. Tons of precip events. It was not cold, dry, and boring by any stretch of the imagination.

Yeah. That Sunday morning surprise was awesome. Flurries turned to 1-2 then 3-5. I went to bed with the new update of 3-5 around midnight. Got up Sunday morning with 6-8 as the call, then NWS updated to 9-12 around 8 AM. Got 9.7”’, then add that to the 8-12 inches that fell from Dec 19-Jan 3 was not too bad.

Then a couple modest clippers added some icing on the cake before that break. But that 3-4 week period might be the best 4 week winter period I have witnessed.
Josh

Without a doubt Josh. I think I can say that too for my hood. The best 2 week stretch for me has to be this past Feb when I got a seasons worth of snowfall LOL But going back to 95-96, if I recall, Oct was warm overall as we both mentioned. Wasn't Nov warm as well? Then the shit hit the fan the rest of the time. Top 5 for snow at CVG. Only one thing that I caution with using 95-96. I buy it if the Nina stays weak. Otherwise I do not. 94-95 was an El Nino and 95-96 was a La Nina. This year we're working on a double Nina and we don't have a lot of those since 1950 to go by. I still like all of the chatter that's out there for an early start. But can the pieces come together to make it memorable which last years Nina failed to do other then that awesome 2 weeks in February? Should be very interesting to watch and find out.