Early Winter Thoughts Thread 2021-2022

[tron777]

check my edit

Just checked. Thanks! My favorite model forecast for the progression of the QBO would have to be the JMA. If correct, we've peaked and should only slowly rise through the rest of fall and into winter but still remaining negative. If you take an avg, the wintertime QBO would be in that -5 to -10 range. Perfect!

[tpweather]

check my edit

Just checked. Thanks! My favorite model forecast for the progression of the QBO would have to be the JMA. If correct, we've peaked and should only slowly rise through the rest of fall and into winter but still remaining negative. If you take an avg, the wintertime QBO would be in that -5 to -10 range. Perfect!

Great Post Les and agree 100p/c about the JMA on the QBO. Love to see it stay negative but anything below -15 tends to be okay for us.

[tron777]

check my edit

Just checked. Thanks! My favorite model forecast for the progression of the QBO would have to be the JMA. If correct, we've peaked and should only slowly rise through the rest of fall and into winter but still remaining negative. If you take an avg, the wintertime QBO would be in that -5 to -10 range. Perfect!

Great Post Les and agree 100p/c about the JMA on the QBO. Love to see it stay negative but anything below -15 tends to be okay for us.

Check out my ACE post too on the previous page if you haven't. I thought it was rather interesting.

[tpweather]

check my edit

Just checked. Thanks! My favorite model forecast for the progression of the QBO would have to be the JMA. If correct, we've peaked and should only slowly rise through the rest of fall and into winter but still remaining negative. If you take an avg, the wintertime QBO would be in that -5 to -10 range. Perfect!

Great Post Les and agree 100p/c about the JMA on the QBO. Love to see it stay negative but anything below -15 tends to be okay for us.

Check out my ACE post too on the previous page if you haven't. I thought it was rather interesting.

Very interesting Les and knew about the ACE but it shows how the tropical season has influence on the upcoming weather. Sure many things to factor in but the tropics are such a big part of the weather.

[Bgoney]

This isn't a good look

image.png.1cfe0feed63f0ea88cc5c1ce5c174cce.png

[tron777]

This isn't a good look


image.png.1cfe0feed63f0ea88cc5c1ce5c174cce.png

The North Pacific ridge is too far to the west. Yeah, it shows a -EPO but the orientation of the ridge is what is key for us in the Eastern US. You know this of course, Bgoney, just pointing it out for anyone looking at that image who may not. Looks like a +AO/+NAO with the cold bottled up in Canada. Def hope this look is wrong lol

[cloudy72]

Looks like a carbon copy of the last ____ winters here!

[tpweather]

This isn't a good look


image.png.1cfe0feed63f0ea88cc5c1ce5c174cce.png

To me that looks like a basic La Nina forecast from the NWS. Looks to simple plus having warmth across all the USA seldom happens any winter with a more likely time would be with and El Nino

[tron777]

QBOModelForecast.png

Folks... I am re-posting the QBO model forecast image from the previous page that Bgoney shared with us. Reason being is I found some more information on the QBO that I wanted to share and it ties into that image. If you go to the below website, Dacula Weather, it's an awesome website for ENSO related things, QBO, and a whole slew of other weather related topics. The link below is for QBO information and Weak La Nina's.

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_qbo_index.php

If you go back and look at some of our colder and snowier winters like those classic mid 1970s winters, some from the 60s, 93-94, 95-96, 09-10 and so on and so forth, in some cases the QBO was moderately negative. Just thought that it was interesting to see. Look at that website. Look at what happens during a Weak Nina if the QBO is negative in November and stays that way throughout the winter. I mean wow!

[Bgoney]

Would be interesting to see what the MJO phases were in the winter months of those winters along with the favorable QBO

[tron777]

Would be interesting to see what the MJO phases were in the winter months of those winters along with the favorable QBO

Not sure if or when I'll have time in the near future, but I wonder if there are archived MJO info out there?

EDIT: This link I just found maybe of some value. It's a daily time series of MJO values since 1979. Going to take some time to pour over the info of course.

https://psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex/

Here's another site to play around with too, again not sure if it's useful or not. Just posting things quickly before I get busy working.

https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES ... anguage=en

[Bgoney]

Would be interesting to see what the MJO phases were in the winter months of those winters along with the favorable QBO

Not sure if or when I'll have time in the near future, but I wonder if there are archived MJO info out there?

I know, I've tried before to find that, to no success, but I would think its out there somewhere

[tron777]

D'oh... please see my edit Bgoney.

[Bgoney]

I gave it a look and I'll have to look into it more when I get to a computer, those ki d of sites were not made for phones, at least not my phone lol

[tron777]

I gave it a look and I'll have to look into it more when I get to a computer, those ki d of sites were not made for phones, at least not my phone lol

Agreed... much easier to see on a bigger screen anyway.

[winterstormjoe]

Found this article on the current Arctic sea ice, Sea Ice loss was surprisingly second-lowest in the past 20 years, I wonder what effects this will have on our winter?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... wprocket=1

[tron777]

Found this article on the current Arctic sea ice, Sea Ice loss was surprisingly second-lowest in the past 20 years, I wonder what effects this will have on our winter?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... wprocket=1

What a great article! My thought on this is that we should see an earlier then normal build up of snow and cold air thanks to the arctic sea ice not melting as much this summer. Whether or not, we benefit from that here locally will depend on the jet stream and upper level weather patterns as we head through the Autumn months.

[Bgoney]

Found this article on the current Arctic sea ice, Sea Ice loss was surprisingly second-lowest in the past 20 years, I wonder what effects this will have on our winter?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... wprocket=1

What a great article! My thought on this is that we should see an earlier then normal build up of snow and cold air thanks to the arctic sea ice not melting as much this summer. Whether or not, we benefit from that here locally will depend on the jet stream and upper level weather patterns as we head through the Autumn months.

I saw the ice report a few weeks ago , nice to see the beginnings of a recovery, hopefully. I also saw an onslaught of articles poopooing the good news by saying the thickness was still way low. Duh, it is a process you know , hopefully the refreeze continues and we start packing on multi year ice in those regions

[tron777]

Found this article on the current Arctic sea ice, Sea Ice loss was surprisingly second-lowest in the past 20 years, I wonder what effects this will have on our winter?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... wprocket=1

What a great article! My thought on this is that we should see an earlier then normal build up of snow and cold air thanks to the arctic sea ice not melting as much this summer. Whether or not, we benefit from that here locally will depend on the jet stream and upper level weather patterns as we head through the Autumn months.

I saw the ice report a few weeks ago , nice to see the beginnings of a recovery, hopefully. I also saw an onslaught of articles poopooing the good news by saying the thickness was still way low. Duh, it is a process you know , hopefully the refreeze continues and we start packing on multi year ice in those regions

Exactly! You've stated it perfectly.

[tpweather]

Found this article on the current Arctic sea ice, Sea Ice loss was surprisingly second-lowest in the past 20 years, I wonder what effects this will have on our winter?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... wprocket=1

What a great article! My thought on this is that we should see an earlier then normal build up of snow and cold air thanks to the arctic sea ice not melting as much this summer. Whether or not, we benefit from that here locally will depend on the jet stream and upper level weather patterns as we head through the Autumn months.

I saw the ice report a few weeks ago , nice to see the beginnings of a recovery, hopefully. I also saw an onslaught of articles poopooing the good news by saying the thickness was still way low. Duh, it is a process you know , hopefully the refreeze continues and we start packing on multi year ice in those regions

No doubt these are cycles and in recent years the polar regions have got it with much heavier snow than normal. After several years the snow takes longer to melt and the temps in the arctic are colder in the summer than normal and this leads to less ice melt. This should happen for several years and then go the other way. I never hear anything on mainstream media about the colder summers in the arctic and how Antarctica has been below average in temps for years.

[tron777]

Found this article on the current Arctic sea ice, Sea Ice loss was surprisingly second-lowest in the past 20 years, I wonder what effects this will have on our winter?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... wprocket=1

What a great article! My thought on this is that we should see an earlier then normal build up of snow and cold air thanks to the arctic sea ice not melting as much this summer. Whether or not, we benefit from that here locally will depend on the jet stream and upper level weather patterns as we head through the Autumn months.

I saw the ice report a few weeks ago , nice to see the beginnings of a recovery, hopefully. I also saw an onslaught of articles poopooing the good news by saying the thickness was still way low. Duh, it is a process you know , hopefully the refreeze continues and we start packing on multi year ice in those regions

No doubt these are cycles and in recent years the polar regions have got it with much heavier snow than normal. After several years the snow takes longer to melt and the temps in the arctic are colder in the summer than normal and this leads to less ice melt. This should happen for several years and then go the other way. I never hear anything on mainstream media about the colder summers in the arctic and how Antarctica has been below average in temps for years.

Exactly Tim! So glad we have this forum to talk about the truth and what's really happening in our world.

[tpweather]

Found this article on the current Arctic sea ice, Sea Ice loss was surprisingly second-lowest in the past 20 years, I wonder what effects this will have on our winter?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... wprocket=1

What a great article! My thought on this is that we should see an earlier then normal build up of snow and cold air thanks to the arctic sea ice not melting as much this summer. Whether or not, we benefit from that here locally will depend on the jet stream and upper level weather patterns as we head through the Autumn months.

I saw the ice report a few weeks ago , nice to see the beginnings of a recovery, hopefully. I also saw an onslaught of articles poopooing the good news by saying the thickness was still way low. Duh, it is a process you know , hopefully the refreeze continues and we start packing on multi year ice in those regions

No doubt these are cycles and in recent years the polar regions have got it with much heavier snow than normal. After several years the snow takes longer to melt and the temps in the arctic are colder in the summer than normal and this leads to less ice melt. This should happen for several years and then go the other way. I never hear anything on mainstream media about the colder summers in the arctic and how Antarctica has been below average in temps for years.

Exactly Tim! So glad we have this forum to talk about the truth and what's really happening in our world.

Les my problem is they like to pick and choose a certain event and will not even discuss the issue. Climate is always changing and always has but we need to talk about the entire subject and the media will never do that because they really have no clue what they are even talking about.

[tron777]

Well stated Tim and in my opinion a 100% correct what you just posted. Home come no one is talking about Barrow already having highs in the mid 30s with 15" of snow cover on the ground and it's only 9/10??? That's way ahead of schedule. No one is talking about Larry's leftovers which will dump 3-5 feet of snow over the S Coast of Greenland as he dies out. No one but this forum has mentioned the lack of sea ice melt in the arctic this summer. I mean the list goes on and on and on. All we hear is fear mongering and agenda driven BS and it's up to us to do our own research so we can make rational and logical decisions. That is exactly what we do on this forum which is great!

[Bgoney]

A graph showing ice melt season which is or will be ending soon , is in a healthy position for the start of ice season. Better in fact than the 30 year mean. But don't tell anyone

SMB_curves_LA_EN_20210831.png

[tron777]

If I remember right, mid Sept is usually the avg for when the melting process ends and the re-freezing process begins so we're pretty much right on cue there. Good news for early snow and cold air build up for sure, but as usual, the questions remain how it'll get down here. Right now, AK and Canada are going to be the beneficiaries as you would expect them to be in Sept / Oct. I like the odds still of an early start to the season. One wild card though that I am hearing talk of is another +IOD event for the upcoming winter, so we'll need to keep an eye on that. Hopefully it doesn't get out of control like a couple of winters ago.