May 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Disagreement from the hires models is pretty significant on timing and placement of clusters of storms for all of tomorrow. Hopefully Oz narrows is down better

Yeah,,, it's a difference between maybe seeing isolated severe vs a full blown outbreak, Right now, it is truly a conditional set up. Glad I am not an SPC or ILN forecaster.

[MVWxObserver]

The breeze and some scattered clouds made it nicer for my Dad and I's next round of Spring tournament Bocce ball as this afternoon we and a pair of women split the 2 games set 1-1.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 84, DAY 86 and CMH 85 today.

[Bgoney]

Disagreement from the hires models is pretty significant on timing and placement of clusters of storms for all of tomorrow. Hopefully Oz narrows is down better

Yeah,,, it's a difference between maybe seeing isolated severe vs a full blown outbreak, Right now, it is truly a conditional set up. Glad I am not an SPC or ILN forecaster.

If round one comes early evening then that should be the main show, meaning more warnings than when round two comes for the southern parts of CVGland after dark . But given the shear still present for the later round some severe still possible

[dce]

Disagreement from the hires models is pretty significant on timing and placement of clusters of storms for all of tomorrow. Hopefully Oz narrows is down better

Yeah,,, it's a difference between maybe seeing isolated severe vs a full blown outbreak, Right now, it is truly a conditional set up. Glad I am not an SPC or ILN forecaster.

The models are probably an indication of just how close the cap is to being blown right off. It should be close one way or the other. An inch that way or an inch the other way.

[MVWxObserver]

Disagreement from the hires models is pretty significant on timing and placement of clusters of storms for all of tomorrow. Hopefully Oz narrows is down better

Yeah,,, it's a difference between maybe seeing isolated severe vs a full blown outbreak, Right now, it is truly a conditional set up. Glad I am not an SPC or ILN forecaster.

The models are probably an indication of just how close the cap is to being blown right off. It should be close one way or the other. An inch that way or an inch the other way.

During the 5 PM hour of today's WHIO7 news, met Nick Dunn gave a demo talk about cap and likened it in part to a can of soda pop that is shaken up and then when opened, released the contents (like precip).

[tron777]

The breeze and some scattered clouds made it nicer for my Dad and I's next round of Spring tournament Bocce ball as this afternoon we and a pair of women split the 2 games set 1-1.

Cool! Glad you guys finally got some dry time in.

[tron777]

Biggest change has been to expand the Moderate risk area into our extreme SW counties. SW of Cincy Metro. All severe modes are possible. My ranking of the hazards from highest to lowest:

1) Damaging wind
2) Large Hail
3) Tornadoes
4) Flash flooding

[tron777]

NAM and HRRR on their 18Z runs are converging somewhat now in terms of two rounds. Differ a bit on placement and timing. Primarily looking to be Cincy on south event or NKY on south event depending on what model you choose. They want to bring in an MCS esp for KY Fri afternoon in that 5-7pm window then the evening round after that, is primarily south again.

Global models have better coverage but even the 18Z GFS shifted south a tad from its 12Z run. Mainly a KY event. The 18Z Euro has more Fri AM junk (leftover from Thurs night) that the main show is well south of the area. We'll see what happens with the trends and data tonight into tomorrow but so far, my money on the worst weather is KY.

[Bgoney]

HRRR continues to be the most aggressive with widespread severe of all types for much of AVLAND. Parameters are lining up as well as I’ve seen (Hrrr) for awhile. Trees fully leaved out this go round is going to be trouble

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[tpweather]

Good Morning and all systems go for the severe outbreak. How far north is one question and usually with this type of severe outbreak the models tend to miss a little on how far north the severe weather will end up going. Folks nearing the I-70 area could be that dividing line but will need to watch the radar later today. Plenty of wind energy,moisture sheer and when the cap is broken you will see these storms explode. All types of severe weather as well with hail,heavy rain, strong winds and yes even tornado's which we could see a few rather strong.

A nice weekend in store so that is the good news with another round of storms early next week but late week heading into the Memorial Day weekend is starting to look really nice.

[tron777]

Good morning and obviously out concern is severe wx for late this afternoon and evening. The data continues to grow more concerning since the daytime activity looks to stay far enough away not to impact our atmosphere very much. If this is correct, then we all stand a higher risk. 6Z HRRR shows a nasty squall line this evening impacting almost everyone. NAM is still a southern show only.

[Bgoney]

Hrrr showing long track supercells

IMG_3634.jpeg

[Teresaw721]

Good morning, We have prom tonight over in Northern Kentucky. Not sure if you have any ideas yet on timing. Wondering if we should we be concerned about the students leaving around 10:30'ish and driving back across the river?

[tron777]

Good morning, We have prom tonight over in Northern Kentucky. Not sure if you have any ideas yet on timing. Wondering if we should we be concerned about the students leaving around 10:30'ish and driving back across the river?

It'll be close but the storms maybe done by then for some areas. For an arrival time, I like that 5-7pm window maybe 8pm at the very latest.

[tron777]

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Switzerland County in southeastern Indiana...
Carroll County in northern Kentucky...
Southern Boone County in northern Kentucky...
Gallatin County in northern Kentucky...

* Until 830 AM EDT.

* At 801 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Carrollton,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Center Square, Braytown, Florence, Ryle, Interstate 71
at Mile Marker 52, Big Bone Lick, Interstate 71 at US Route 127,
Langstaff, Steele Bottom, Locust, Markland, Patriot, Ghent, Rabbit
Hash, Vevay, Kentucky Speedway, Quercus Grove, Mount Sterling, and
Jacksonville.

[Bgoney]

IMG_3635.gif

[tron777]

The warning has expired and that cell will miss me to the south. After that passes, we should be free and clear until this evening IMO. I think most of the Central KY activity will stay southbound.

[tron777]

This Week in Weather came out last night from DT:

[tron777]

No changes to the SPC Day 1 Outlook:


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


We should get another update around 12:30.

[tron777]

[Bgoney]

Pretty big change from latest Hrrr for NKentucky. Slices off the severe line at the river , apparently thinking the atmosphere was affected by this morning’s activity to our south . IDK, seems like we should have plenty of of time to recover in that area . Not buying that atm.

IMG_3636.jpeg

[tron777]

Pretty big change from latest Hrrr for NKentucky. Slices off the severe line at the river , apparently thinking the atmosphere was affected by this morning’s activity to our south . IDK, seems like we should have plenty of of time to recover in that area . Not buying that atm.



IMG_3636.jpeg

I agree with you. I don't foresee the morning cloud debris impacting things at all. The Thermodynamic environment is extremely supportive thanks to the strong wind shear that you posted on already and good lapse rates, helicity, etc. We already have some weak CAPE this morning thanks to how humid and moist the environment is. A few hours of sun will do the rest which is expected by midday and into the early afternoon hours.

[tpweather]

Bgoney I agree we should have time to recover locally. Heading towards I-64 though it will be interesting how long the current round of storms last and usually we see a decrease in the 11a-2pm time. If the storms are still up and running down there then the chances of more severe weather will be less but just need to see what happens the next few hours.

[tron777]

12Z NAM is doing the Cincy Tri-state split lol