April Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Nice post Tim! The question for me and probably a lot of folks is this: Can we plant this early and take a chance or not? You know our local climate enough that it is a good idea to wait a couple of weeks just in case. If you want to take a chance, then go for it! It can be an expensive mistake. I currently do not see any frost in our future but that is only going out 7-10 days.

I’m going to for it Les, If the ground temps weren’t there for the taking I wouldn’t but since they are it’s worth a shot , probably 2 weeks ahead of schedule. I’ll do half of planting now and then the rest when I normally would. ( just in case)

I might do the same once my spinach is done (It's close). I would like to at least get some bean seeds in the ground. I can do the rest later when you're supposed too.

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY EARTH DAY AV COMMUNITY FAMILY!!

[tron777]

[tron777]

BG's video did not have any audio today unless you were on the Wave Weather app. Oh well...

I think I'll cut the spinach at lunch time today, then plant some seeds after work. The forecast looks warm and wet at times. The only fly in the ointment is a possible cut off low in early May but you'd have clouds, showers and cool weather and you wouldn't see frost since skies aren't going to be clear. I am seeing signs of the cut off low still on the models but I do not see cold air. It stays over New England or SE Canada and misses us. If correct, we will be in good shape for planting. Fingers crossed....

[tron777]

Just came in from cutting the spinach on my lunch hour and boy oh boy... it is a beautiful day outside! Hope all can get out and enjoy it. A nice pleasant air mass too.

[tron777]

If the 12Z GFS is correct, we get rain chances beginning Thurs afternoon with the chances peaking Fri afternoon . night. The weekend now looks dry as the front moves thru faster so some good news there if it holds.

[tron777]

12Z Euro delays most of the action until Fri afternoon and evening when a nice 1/2" falls at CVG.

[tron777]

A gorgeous day today folks! High of 72 here today, CVG checking in with 70. Another nice one tomorrow before we track rain chances late in the day Thurs becoming more likely on Friday. Expecting upper 70s tomorrow, 80 on Thurs and in the 70s Fri. Cooling back down into the 60s or so this weekend. We will rebound again next week with the mid 80s possible by Tuesday of next week. Wow! A taste of summer? Rainfall wise, after Friday's system, the weekend is dry but rain chances return for early next week along with warmth and humidity.

Listening to My Tigers on SiriusXM before bed.

[MVWxObserver]

BG's video did not have any audio today unless you were on the Wave Weather app. Oh well...

I think I'll cut the spinach at lunch time today, then plant some seeds after work. The forecast looks warm and wet at times. The only fly in the ointment is a possible cut off low in early May but you'd have clouds, showers and cool weather and you wouldn't see frost since skies aren't going to be clear. I am seeing signs of the cut off low still on the models but I do not see cold air. It stays over New England or SE Canada and misses us. If correct, we will be in good shape for planting. Fingers crossed....

I would rather do without BOTH the cold air AND cut off low possibilities. A cut off low scenario e.g. would impact my neighborhood's ongoing Spring Bocce ball tournament games. I by far don't want to see any drought situation set up this summer but the cold / cool air temps + set ups like a cut off low aren't conducive for great outside activities like Bocce etc.

I am ready for a string of 70s days and DRY for a while in the medium term at least.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 70, DAY 71 and CMH 72 on Tues.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Another beauty today and honestly tomorrow isn't bad either until a warm front comes in later in the day to bring in a chance for rain and storms. Fri has likely chances with the cold front. A cooler and drier weekend followed by a mild and potentially active early next week. No severe wx is expected per the SPC. We are not outlooked over the next several days.

[pianoman]

My wife and I are planning on hosting an 8th grade party for our choral students from Mars Hill Academy this Friday afternoon at our home on Morrow, Ohio. We don’t mind a little rain, (we live on a farm), but we don’t want a lot of mud and dirt tracked into the house either. Should we postpone? Our backup date is May 10. Thank you!

[tron777]

[tron777]

My wife and I are planning on hosting an 8th grade party for our choral students from Mars Hill Academy this Friday afternoon at our home on Morrow, Ohio. We don’t mind a little rain, (we live on a farm), but we don’t want a lot of mud and dirt tracked into the house either. Should we postpone? Our backup date is May 10. Thank you!

We still have some timing issues to resolve. 12Z NAM has the greatest chances after midnight Fri night whereas the 12Z GFS is a bit earlier more so during the afternoon and evening. We'll see once we get a little bit closer.

[pianoman]

Thank you!

[tron777]

12Z Euro is really going to town for heavy rain and storms Fri afternoon and evening. More QPF then the other models.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro is really going to town for heavy rain and storms Fri afternoon and evening. More QPF then the other models.

Hey Les and I am leaning towards the Euro and will see what the trends show on Thursday. Could use a nice 1/2-1 inch of rainfall and can we get that once a week for say the next 12-14 weeks lol

[tron777]

12Z Euro is really going to town for heavy rain and storms Fri afternoon and evening. More QPF then the other models.

Hey Les and I am leaning towards the Euro and will see what the trends show on Thursday. Could use a nice 1/2-1 inch of rainfall and can we get that once a week for say the next 12-14 weeks lol

I am game for it Tim! MBY could use some rain since we haven't had a good soaker since the flooding rain event occurred. A lot of low humidity and windy days so while the deeper soil moisture is just fine, the top surface is somewhat dry. The timing is changing some on the guidance and that should determine how much coverage we get. I like Fri afternoon and evening for best chances but if slower solutions are right, it could hold off until after midnight.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 77, DAY 80 and CMH 81 on Wed.

[tron777]

Good morning! We have a 50 / 50 chance of seeing rain this afternoon and evening. The greatest chance will be Fri afternoon and evening and into the overnight also.

At CVG....

6Z NAM - 0.26" event total with the highest chance Fri afternoon and evening.
0Z GFS - Nearing 0.60" with the best chance Fri evening thru around 1am or so.
0Z Euro - A third of an inch with this afternoon and evening having the best chance.

So, still some timing issues but it's the best I can do. I am going with scattered action today and likely for tomorrow. The weekend is still cool and dry.

[MVWxObserver]

Its a few days away but the SPC currently has us under a Slight risk for next Tues.

[tron777]

Its a few days away but the SPC currently has us under a Slight risk for next Tues.

Next week is interesting since we'll have some warm moist air to work with. Not a bad early call from the SPC IMO. We may see that type of look continue for Wed and Thurs as well.

[Bgoney]

Good morning! We have a 50 / 50 chance of seeing rain this afternoon and evening. The greatest chance will be Fri afternoon and evening and into the overnight also.

At CVG....

6Z NAM - 0.26" event total with the highest chance Fri afternoon and evening.
0Z GFS - Nearing 0.60" with the best chance Fri evening thru around 1am or so.
0Z Euro - A third of an inch with this afternoon and evening having the best chance.

So, still some timing issues but it's the best I can do. I am going with scattered action today and likely for tomorrow. The weekend is still cool and dry.

A pretty weak set-up for the Two days. Weak jet , weak shear so nothing organized. Scattered showers and maybe a rumble here and there

[tron777]

Good morning! We have a 50 / 50 chance of seeing rain this afternoon and evening. The greatest chance will be Fri afternoon and evening and into the overnight also.

At CVG....

6Z NAM - 0.26" event total with the highest chance Fri afternoon and evening.
0Z GFS - Nearing 0.60" with the best chance Fri evening thru around 1am or so.
0Z Euro - A third of an inch with this afternoon and evening having the best chance.

So, still some timing issues but it's the best I can do. I am going with scattered action today and likely for tomorrow. The weekend is still cool and dry.

A pretty weak set-up for the Two days. Weak jet , weak shear so nothing organized. Scattered showers and maybe a rumble here and there

I could see some scattered areas getting into the 1/4" to 1/2" range with a little luck but most everyone else I agree, totals will remain below 1/4".

[tron777]

La Nina maybe trying to make a come back. DT has a nice This Week in Weather video to talk about it: