April Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and at this point I believe this could no doubt be a much more lively severe outbreak than yesterday. I could be wrong but from what I see at the moment late Wednesday into the overnight could be quite active.

Concerning rainfall totals from Wednesday-Sunday and almost 100p/c chance we get some heavy rainfall. I am still going 4-6 and it seems in these kind of patterns southern Indiana and western Kentucky end up with the highest amounts before all is said and done. Don't get me wrong 4-6 in 4 days is plenty of rainfall but getting over 6 inches locally does not happen often. So much depends on each wave that comes through and how strong they become. Amounts will probably vary even locally and if you happen to get hit with the heaviest bands for and extended period numbers can be quite high. All we can do before Wednesday is try to figure out the severe threat first and where does the front end up stalling on Thursday.

[tron777]

Great post yourself there Tim! We both bring up good points here as we have a dual threat event unfolding. Severe wx then the potential for longer term river flooding and shorter term flash flooding as well. It is going to be an interesting and active pattern after the quiet start to the week. The timing of the warm front and its behavior determines the severe side then where the cold front actually stalls determines the multi day heavy rain side. Extreme rainfall amounts are likely if the same area keeps repeatedly getting hit. Remember, we will have POPS from Wed thru Sunday of the upcoming weekend. 5 different waves along the stalled frontal boundary. If you get 3 or 4 of those heavy rounds, flooding will be a huge concern.

[tron777]

I think this event deserves its own thread. A severe wx / Flooding combo.

Link to storm thread for Wed - Sun period: viewtopic.php?t=411

Please use this thread for anything else April. Thanks all!

[tron777]

After the flooding event (which is being covered in the other thread), the extended range is looking cooler then normal if not cold at times thru mid month. It looks like our old friend the -NAO / +PNA combo pattern is coming back. That usually means colder for us but drier, which will be sorely needed after this next event.

[tpweather]

Made it through the 1st 3 months of the year and how do we stand compared to normal. At CVG precip is about 1/10above normal so I considered that normal and temps around 1/2 degree below normal so once again in the normal range imo.

What does the next 3 months bring and the only item we know of so far is a very wet start to the month and the chance to go above the normal April rainfall in the first 5 days or so.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 54, DAY 51 and CMH 52 today.

[tron777]

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY 53RD BIRTHDAY DOUG!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

[tron777]

Enjoy your day Doug! Happy Birthday! Thanks for being part of our forum.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 80 and both DAY / CMH 78 today.

[tron777]

81 was my high today. Still a balmy 79 this evening.

[tron777]

MD issued for a possible watch in Central / SKY into Middle TN:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0362.html

[tron777]

Storms trying to get going over EC IN into NW Ohio like around Muncie. Does that happen farther south or not? How much of the cap has eroded down our way? Guess we'll need to continue to monitor radar trends.

[MVWxObserver]

MD issued for a possible watch in Central / SKY into Middle TN:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0362.html

Yep my nephew / his wife in Columbia, TN and his wife's folks in Nashville, TN e.g. etc., too.

[tron777]

Whoops. I was posting in the wrong thread.

[Bgoney]

Looks like mid 20s for lows a couple days next week

[tron777]

Looks like mid 20s for lows a couple days next week

One day, maybe 2 in the 40s also for highs. Lovely!

[MVWxObserver]

Going to be a cold one for the start of my neighborhood community's Bocce ball Spring league tournament.

[winterstormjoe]

Looks like the trends on the GFS are trying cook up another severe event with multi waves of rain around or after mid month.

[tron777]

Looks like the trends on the GFS are trying cook up another severe event with multi waves of rain around or after mid month.

Yeah. I think we will get into another blocking pattern with a possible cut off low which would promote showery and cool conditions or something like todays GFS is plausible too, which we don't want.