February 2025 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Last 4 runs from the EU and QPF trends for Mon/Tues also showing the squeeze. Still time for a new trend to develop

IMG_3174.gif

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and first thing is the system from last night is just about to leave the USA through Maine. This tells me no blocking whatsoever and this looks to continue until later next week. The NAO positive but forecast showing this heading toward neutral later next week. This tells me the next few systems will be quick movers and not expecting a whole lot in terms of precip. Then later next week I really do like what the Euro shows with a slower system and also still plenty of moisture to work off of because the next two systems move so fast they really leave the GOM alone for the most part.

Again way too early for a forecast but later next week imo is a decent shot of a winter storm and when I say winter storm one that can produce more than 4 inches of so somewhere in the Ohio Valley.

[Bgoney]

Tim , what I’m seeing with the trend for Mon/Tues is what we’ve seen the last month, models have over done the SE ridge in the mid range showing further north precip shield, then as we get closer to event the ridging is weak and the moisture moving up river falls over to a more east trajectory . Not saying this is set in stone at this point but the trend at the moment can’t be ignored, especially for the I70 crew

[tron777]

The Euro was not impressive with the first wave at all. Second one is a nasty ice storm.

[tpweather]

Tim , what I’m seeing with the trend for Mon/Tues is what we’ve seen the last month, models have over done the SE ridge in the mid range showing further north precip shield, then as we get closer to event the ridging is weak and the moisture moving up river falls over to a more east trajectory . Not saying this is set in stone at this point but the trend at the moment can’t be ignored, especially for the I70 crew

Bgoney you are correct about how the southeast ridge has been overdone most of the winter. The system for Mon/Tues though I believe is going to be weak and snow totals more in the 1-2 inch range. I believe the system later in the week has more potential for reasons I mentioned before this post. Will be busy and will be fun to watch and see how models see this every run. When there is not a clear sign of exactly which pieces of energy gets going it can be tough and I am using the NAO forecast as a big part of my forecast next week.

[tpweather]

The Euro was not impressive with the first wave at all. Second one is a nasty ice storm.

Les it could be ice or snow and I just believe that system has a better shot of becoming something decent in the Ohio Valley

[Trevor]

Multiple waves next week will lead to plenty of potential here in the OV. The ingredients for a biggen are in place, but it all comes down to how the finer details behave.

[tron777]

Multiple waves next week will lead to plenty of potential here in the OV. The ingredients for a biggen are in place, but it all comes down to how the finer details behave.

The Euro was not impressive with the first wave at all. Second one is a nasty ice storm.

Les it could be ice or snow and I just believe that system has a better shot of becoming something decent in the Ohio Valley

Going to quote the both of you here since I agree with what each of you are saying. I've said the same thing before too. It's always been timing. We've all lived here and forecasted for here long enough to know how things typically work. So far this winter though I will say, things have broken for the good (if you like snow). I can't say why that trend wouldn't continue for the season when you get these marginal set up's. I also am beginning to see the second wave as being the stronger one versus the first. That trend was very clear in the modeling today. As the first wave dampens out, the QPF field shrinks. But that leaves the door open for the more amplified wave to come in later in the week. This is a legitimate option.

[tron777]

12Z EPS Mean for snowfall over the next 2 weeks. I'd take this in a heart beat! We'd be above avg for the month and the season too.

EPS Mean.png

[tpweather]

Great post today guys. We all have different ways to look at the weather and I have said that before and really gives this forum a high mark imo. There are some out there where everyone mentions the same thing over and over but looking at it in different ways imo is always a good thing. I learn something new on here every week and learning is not a bad item.

[tron777]

Wow... a nice look on the Canadian Ens. even after mid month. EPS is similar...

EPS.png

[tron777]

This Week in Weather from DT:

[tron777]

18Z GFS is back to a stronger round 1 and weaker round 2 (maybe even 3 on Friday).

[tron777]

CVG - Round 1

Code: Select all

TUE 12Z 11-FEB  -2.7    -6.2    1025      90      97    0.08     559     539    
TUE 18Z 11-FEB  -1.3    -4.0    1019      94      98    0.09     556     541    
WED 00Z 12-FEB  -2.8    -5.5    1018      95      99    0.28     552     538    
WED 06Z 12-FEB  -7.0    -6.4    1020      97      83    0.01     552     536   

Rounds 2 and 3

Code: Select all

THU 12Z 13-FEB  -1.9    -2.3    1025      96      94    0.14     561     542    
THU 18Z 13-FEB   0.1    -1.6    1025      96     100    0.01     562     542    
FRI 00Z 14-FEB  -0.2    -0.1    1024      96      87    0.04     562     543    
FRI 06Z 14-FEB  -0.8     0.1    1021      95      93    0.05     560     543    
FRI 12Z 14-FEB  -2.6    -3.1    1019      96      98    0.12     554     539    
FRI 18Z 14-FEB  -0.8    -4.8    1023      92      80    0.23     552     534  

[tpweather]

Les lets just have one 5 day storm with brief periods of calm starting Tuesday lasting through Saturday.

[tron777]

Les lets just have one 5 day storm with brief periods of calm starting Tuesday lasting through Saturday.

I'd like to be approved to work from home next week Tues thru Friday, please.

[tpweather]

Will watch the DT video later but off to make a little money playing Euchre. Should be busy over the next 7-10 days

[tron777]

Will watch the DT video later but off to make a little money playing Euchre. Should be busy over the next 7-10 days

Good luck Tim! Hope you get a lot of bowers and your partner has your back!

[tron777]

[tron777]

12Z AI Euro is light snow for Tues but Wed afternoon thru Thurs a nice snow storm! The hits keep on coming after that thru the end of the run. Wow!!

[tron777]

12Z EPS mean has plenty of QPF for Tues / Wed as well as the Wed / Thurs round. Man... if things come together just right, next week could feature several days with light to moderate snow. It'll add up over time and make clean up easier versus one major dumping.

[MVWxObserver]

From yesterday ...

0552 175 Burgin Mercer KY 3775 8477 Multiple reports of ping pong to golfball size hail. Relayed by broadcast media. (LMK)

0557 100 4 WNW Rose Hill Mercer KY 3777 8498 Quarter size hail reported near Cornishville. (LMK)

1054 UNK 2 WSW Welchs Creek Butler KY 3733 8660 Trees down on Needmore Road. (LMK)

1056 UNK 2 E Hammonville Hart KY 3741 8576 ​Barn damage and power line damage blown into roadway near intersection of Levi Beams Road and N Jackson Highway near Magnolia. (LMK)

1152 UNK 3 SSW Jacktown Casey KY 3741 8503 Carport pole barn rolled over at residence on Button Knob Road. (LMK)

From today ...

1212 UNK 4 ENE Monroe Green KY 3725 8563 Tree damage in roadway between Donansburg and New Salem Church along Donansburg New Salem Road. (LMK)

1246 UNK 1 WSW Robinet Rockcastle KY 3737 8420 Delayed ... Post-Survey Report. Multiple trees were snapped along Big Cave Road (KY-1004) ... with their trunks blown uniformly to the south. This appears to be related to the tornado touchdown. (JKL)

1248 Robinet Rockcastle KY 3738 8417 The National Weather Service confirms EF-1 tornado damage in the Robinet Community ... on the eastern side of Rockcastle County ... via storm survey. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

1248 UNK Robinet Rockcastle KY 3738 8417 TOR Possible. Report of a roof off a house on Red Hill Road in Livingston ... KY. Individual contacted the County Emergency Manager about a possible tornado. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

1318 1 SE Island City Owsley KY 3735 8375 Corrects previous tornado report from 1 SE Island City. The National Weather Service confirms EF-1 tornado damage near the Island City Community ... on the southwestern side of Owsley County. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

1318 UNK 1 SE Island City Owsley KY 3735 8375 TOR possible. Delayed report relayed via broadcast media. Photographs of structural damage and downed trees in between Sextons Creek and Island City. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

1437 UNK 2 SE Wendover Leslie KY 3711 8335 Corrects previous report from 2 SE Wendover. Tree blown down in the 1800 block of Camp Creek Road. (JKL)

1440 UNK 1 SW Marlowe Letcher KY 3713 8284 Abandoned trailer home destroyed by thunderstorm winds. Time estimated as approximately the same time as the Whitesburg ... KY Mesonet reported a 53 mph gust. (JKL)

2200 UNK 2 W Clear Creek Spring Bell KY 3672 8376 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 1 SSW Wasioto. Tree fell on a power line on Road 190. Tree fell at intersection of Road 190 and Beckys Branch Road. Time was estimated via radar. (JKL)

2211 175 Cumberland Harlan KY 3698 8299 NWS Morristown relayed a public report of golf ball sized hail in Cumberland. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

2242 UNK 1 SSW Wasioto Bell KY 3674 8370 Tree fell on a power line on Road 190. (JKL)

0018 UNK 1 E Corbin Whitley KY 3694 8410 Report of damage along Madison Avenue in Corbin. Large tree was uprooted and fell on a residence and a vehicle. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

0020 UNK Stinnett Leslie KY 3709 8340 Multiple trees reported down along US-421 between One Stop Gas Station and Stinnett Hill Road. (JKL)

0026 UNK 1 S Burkesville Cumberland KY 3678 8537 3 power poles down along Highway 90 east of Burkesville. (LMK)

0035 UNK 1 SSW Goldbug Whitley KY 3678 8418 Tree fell over Prewitt Bend Rd ... about 1.5 miles off US-25. Time estimated from radar. (JKL)

0043 UNK 3 NW Bledsoe Leslie KY 3696 8340 Tor Possible. Leslie County 911 Center reports many tree limbs and other debris scattered around the intersection of 421 and 2058. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

0102 100 2 SW Dorton Pike KY 3726 8260 Quarter sized hail reported at Big Branch Hill off of Lick Fork of Beefhide. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

0141 UNK Clover Fork Harlan KY 3688 8293 A tree was reportedly blown down onto KY-38 near MM 28. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

[MVWxObserver]

Les lets just have one 5 day storm with brief periods of calm starting Tuesday lasting through Saturday.

I'd like to be approved to work from home next week Tues thru Friday, please.

Bro, maybe your boss will have a heart and let you do just that.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 53, DAY 41 and CMH 43 today.

[tron777]

Good morning all! We begin the discussion today with our next system. I think it'll be similar to what we just saw. Frz rain / sleet at precip onset late tonight / early Sat morning then plain rain after that. Highs only in the 40s now. Then for next week, we are still watching Tues then Wed PM into Thurs and perhaps another by next weekend too. Precip types and amounts are still in question as we try and get some kind of model agreement going this weekend.... I hope.