Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

Would love to see that trend continue. Could use an inch of rain to get the water table back up and soften up this hard, concrete clay ground.

[MVWxObserver]

Would love to see that trend continue. Could use an inch of rain to get the water table back up and soften up this hard, concrete clay ground.

Would be wonderful if both the Tri-state and Miami Valley (including north of I-70) could get in on Fred's rain remnants!

I already forget when the last time here in Greenville had an inch.

[Bgoney]

Cuba continues to restrict Fred. Pretty much an open wave atm, will have time now once over open waters to gain a bit of strength and hopefully visit the OV

[tpweather]

Good Morning and as we know Fred moved further west over Cuba than expected which weaken the system. Should be able to regain some strength once over open waters though this system has never been a big wind maker but tons of rain. The current path is one you don't see that often which is trying to bring it up to southern Kentucky. Stronger high off the coast is one reason this system is moving further west. Still looks to die off as a storm before getting to far north but it will add moisture to the pattern. Hopefully there will be enough moisture and the timing is correct so folks get in on some needed rainfall. Down in Greenville I will be involved with plenty of rainfall and even before the tropical system since the front will stall and sort of damn up the moisture against the mountains so easily see 3 inches before Tuesday and maybe more then.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! TD Fred is almost ready to get away from Cuba and get into the Gulf. We will have to wait and see how strong he gets prior to landfall next week. So far a mod to strong TS looks good.

TS Grace this morning with winds of 40 is currently excepted to continue to take a Fred like track. This will likely be the next one to monitor for US impacts around Day 10 give or take.

[Bgoney]

Good morning folks! TD Fred is almost ready to get away from Cuba and get into the Gulf. We will have to wait and see how strong he gets prior to landfall next week. So far a mod to strong TS looks good.

TS Grace this morning with winds of 40 is currently excepted to continue to take a Fred like track. This will likely be the next one to monitor for US impacts around Day 10 give or take.

Agree, another chance at tropical moisture in the days following Fred. Hopefully one or both give the region a soaking.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! TD Fred is almost ready to get away from Cuba and get into the Gulf. We will have to wait and see how strong he gets prior to landfall next week. So far a mod to strong TS looks good.

TS Grace this morning with winds of 40 is currently excepted to continue to take a Fred like track. This will likely be the next one to monitor for US impacts around Day 10 give or take.

Agree, another chance at tropical moisture in the days following Fred. Hopefully one or both give the region a soaking.

That would be great! One would put me where I need to be. Both would give me a good surplus heading into Sept which is climo dry time for us anyway. However, with the tropics now active, if the current 500 MB pattern holds, could we have a wetter fall? Will be interesting to watch. The next two systems and how they behave for us or not for us will be telling.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be
issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/
10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory.

SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

...DISORGANIZED GRACE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 65.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warnings for Saba and Sint Eustatius have been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warnings for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy have
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Samana
* Entire coast of Haiti

[tpweather]

Just looking at the latest info and to me the models are heading more northeast than north once the system hits land. There will still be moisture that will interact with the front but if the current models are correct the heaviest rains will occur in northern Georgia and western Carolina's. This track is one that is a little more common but the last two days or so the models had pushed further west.

[tron777]

Fred has winds of 50 mph moving N at 9. He'll make landfall across the NW part of the FL panhandle later today and tonight.

Grace is down to a TD now with winds of 35 mph. This one is likely to continue West and it might be a Deep S Texas or N Mexico issue at this point. We shall see, it's early.

Finally, TD 8 has formed moving SW at 5 towards Bermuda. This one also may get a name but do a loop around Bermuda and not bother the East Coast as it stands now.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

[MVWxObserver]

Fred-related from Sun ...

1930 UNK 4 SSE SAINT PETERSBURG PINELLAS FL 2770 8264 PUBLIC REPORTS SEVERAL PINE TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (TBW)

1940 59 2 ENE SAINT PETERSBURG PINELLAS FL 2777 8263 ASOS STATION KSPG ST PETERS ALBERT. (TBW)

From Sat ...

1914 UNK NEWVILLE HENRY AL 3142 8534 TREE DAMAGE AND DAMAGE TO A BARN REPORTED NEAR COUNTY ROAD 56 AND COUNTY ROAD 99. (TAE)

2050 UNK HOLIDAY PASCO FL 2818 8274 AN ONLINE NEWS OUTLET POSTED A PICTURE OF WIND DAMAGE TO A CARPORT ATTACHED TO A MOBILE HOME NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BUENA VISTA LANE AND KEPNER DRIVE IN HOLIDAY. (TBW)

2142 UNK 5 W VICKSBURG BAY FL 3033 8575 REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; SHINGLES BLOWN OFF. (TAE)

0101 58 14 NW KEY WEST GMZ033 FL 2471 8193 A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 50 KTS ... OR 58 MPH ... WAS RECORDED BY THE WEATHERFLOW MESONET AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT AT 901 PM EDT. WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 34 KTS ... OR 39 MPH. (KEY)

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

Fred has winds of 60 mph as he comes ashore this evening.

TD Grace has winds of 35 and will struggle for another day or two due to land interaction.

TS Henri is born now with winds of 40 mph and will do a circle around Bermuda. Not expecting US impacts as of yet.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM HENRI...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 62.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. Henri is
moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the
center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and
the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the
island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[tron777]

We can say good-bye to Fred now as he moves thru the SE.
Grace has winds of 40 mph as she deals with the Islands.
Henri has winds of 50 mph as he continues to impact the area around Bermuda.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes likely

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Tim's turf!

[MVWxObserver]

So far from Tues ...

1220 UNK 2 E BUCKHEAD MORGAN GA 3357 8332 TWO TREES DOWNED ON THE 1300 BLOCK OF APALACHEE WOODS TRAIL (FFC)

1220 UNK 2 SE ILA MADISON GA 3415 8326 MINOR DAMAGE TO A FEW GRAIN BINS AND BARNS ... TREE DOWNED ONTO A VEHICLE ... AND NUMEROUS TREE TOPS BROKEN OFF ... ALL ALONG HWY 98 FROM JUST SOUTHWEST OF DANIELSVILLE TO ILA. (FFC)

1426 4 E HOMER BANKS GA 3434 8342 EM REPORT OF A MOBILE HOME DESTROYED ALONG BENNETT ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (FFC)

1428 3 SSW PINEFIELD CROSSROADS BANKS GA 3437 8345 MULTIPLE REPORTS OF DAMAGE ALONG PAYNE ROAD. BARN DESTROYED ALONG WITH STRUCTURAL FIRE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (FFC)

1506 5 ENE CATAWBA IREDELL NC 3574 8099 TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND WITH TREES BLOWN DOWN. (GSP)

1530 UNK 3 SSW SANDY SPRINGS ANDERSON SC 3456 8278 LARGE TREE DOWN ALONG CENTERVILLE RD. NEAR I-85 (GSP)

1532 1 S STONY POINT ALEXANDER NC 3585 8105 TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR SMITH FARM ROAD WITH TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO NEARBY HOUSES AND BUILDINGS. (GSP)

1612 UNK 3 S SANDY SPRINGS ANDERSON SC 3455 8275 TREE DOWN ON CENTERVILLE ROAD. (GSP)

1638 UNK 8 ENE WALHALLA OCONEE SC 3480 8293 TREE ON A HOUSE ON CROWE DRIVE SENECA. (GSP)

1715 1 NNW RONDA WILKES NC 3624 8095 EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND RONDA VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR RONDA AND OBSERVED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCH DOWN. A HOUSE WAS ALSO DAMAGED. (RNK)

1736 5 NW EDGEFIELD EDGEFIELD SC 3384 8200 EDGEFIELD 911 CALL CENTER REPORTS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR MOORE ROAD. (CAE)

1737 UNK 3 ENE HALLS MILLS WILKES NC 3631 8117 MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN ON CANE CREEK CHURCH ROAD. (RNK)

1741 UNK 2 SSW EAST BEND YADKIN NC 3619 8052 TREE DOWN ON MOBILE HOME. REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. (RNK)

1756 UNK 3 SSE FAIRVIEW BUNCOMBE NC 3548 8239 TREES DOWN ACROSS BRUSH CREEK ROAD (GSP)

1756 UNK 3 S GLADE VALLEY ALLEGHANY NC 3643 8104 A COUPLE OF TREES BLOWN DOWN ON THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY. (RNK)

1804 UNK 1 SE GLADE VALLEY ALLEGHANY NC 3647 8104 ONE OR TWO TREES BLOWN DOWN. (RNK)

1818 UNK 2 SW TOPNOT CASWELL NC 3634 7929 ONE TREE AND SEVERAL BRANCHES DOWN ON BURTON CHAPEL ROAD. (RNK)

1834 UNK 3 SW RIDGEWAY HENRY VA 3655 7990 A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ALONG RESERVOIR ROAD. (RNK)

1852 MAULDIN GREENVILLE SC 3479 8230 EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SEVERAL BUILDINGS IN AND NEAR MAULDIN. (GSP)

1949 6 SSW LITTLE MOUNTAIN NEWBERRY SC 3412 8144 CALLER REPORTS A LINE AROUND 20FT IN DIAMETER OF DOWNED WHEAT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (CAE)

1950 7 SW CHAPIN NEWBERRY SC 3409 8142 CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 6 SW CHAPIN. SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF A TORNADO MOVING ACROSS LAKE MURRAY NEAR DREHER ISLAND STATE PARK. (CAE)

1950 6 SW CHAPIN NEWBERRY SC 3410 8143 SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF A TORNADO MOVING ACROSS LAKE MURRAY NEAR DREHER ISLAND STATE PARK. THE VIDEO WAS SHOW FROM THE AUTUMN CAY NEIGHBORHOOD OFF OF STATE PARK ROAD. (CAE)

1955 5 SW CHAPIN LEXINGTON SC 3412 8141 TREE DOWN ON HOME ON CRYSTAL COVE CT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (CAE)

2001 UNK 5 SW CHAPIN LEXINGTON SC 3412 8141 POWERLINES DOWN ALONG CRYSTAL COVE CT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (CAE)

2004 2 S CHAPIN LEXINGTON SC 3414 8135 VIDEO FROM HOME SECURITY CAMERA OF POSSIBLE TORNADO. LOCATED NEAR MURRAY LINDLER RD & VENTNOR AVE FACING WEST NORTHWEST. (CAE)

2114 UNK 1 W VALDESE BURKE NC 3575 8158 LARGE TREE LIMBS/BRANCHES DOWN GREATER THAN 2 INCHES (GSP)

2133 UNK 6 NNW BROOKDALE ORANGEBURG SC 3360 8087 SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS TREE ON ROADWAY AT COLUMBIA ROAD AND NEW HOPE ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (CAE)

2134 UNK 3 WSW JONAS RIDGE MCDOWELL NC 3596 8194 SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN (GSP)

2205 3 SE FOUNTAIN INN LAURENS SC 3466 8217 VIDEO EVIDENCE OF TORNADO WITH DEBRIS COINCIDENT WITH RADAR SIGNATURE (GSP)

From Mon ...

1625 4 WSW HARMONY IREDELL NC 3594 8084 NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR OLIN. EXACT LOCATION AND TIME ESTIMATED. (GSP)

0525 1 NE AMERICUS SUMTER GA 3208 8422 LIKELY TORNADO DAMAGE NEAR PINECREST DR AND SHARON DR IN AMERICUS. MANY TREES DOWN ... SEVERAL ON STRUCTURES. (FFC)

0834 3 WSW ROCKY MOUNT MERIWETHER GA 3316 8472 REPORTS OF SEVERAL VERY LARGE TREES DOWN ACROSS COLEMAN CREEK CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH A RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADIC CIRCULATION AROUND 4:34 AM EDT (FFC)

0948 1 NE DISTRICT PATH TWIGGS GA 3262 8336 MULTIPLE REPORTS OF DAMAGE IN THE AREA OF MISSILE BASE RD. BOATS OVERTURNED AT ACADEMY SPORTS DISTRIBUTION CENTER ... DAMAGE TO A NEARBY PUMP HOUSE ... AND A TRACTOR TRAILER OVERTURNED. (FFC)

0951 2 NNE DISTRICT PATH TWIGGS GA 3264 8337 MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED NEAR PROSPECT CHURCH RD AND HWY 96 (FFC)

1023 3 ESE GRESHAMVILLE GREENE GA 3360 8327 MULTIPLE REPORTS OF DAMAGE ... MAINLY TREES DOWN WITH MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ... IN THE ARROWHEAD SUBDIVISION. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (FFC)

1028 4 WSW COOPERS BALDWIN GA 3295 8335 REPORT OF A FEW TREES DOWNED NEAR UNION HILL CHURCH RD AND KITCHENS RD (FFC)

1037 4 SE HADDOCK BALDWIN GA 3300 8338 TREE BLOCKING THE ROAD AT EDWARD HILL RD (FFC)

2249 UNK 1 E STANLEYTOWN HENRY VA 3675 7994 THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW DOWN ONE TREE ON ROUTE 220 BLOCKING ONE OF THE SOUTHBOUND LANES NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BRANSCOME DRIVE. (RNK)

2257 UNK SANVILLE HENRY VA 3671 8007 THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW DOWN ONE TREE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CASSELL DRIVE AND MORNING SIDE DRIVE. (RNK)

1100 UNK 2 ESE BISHOP OCONEE GA 3381 8341 A PORTION OF A BARN COLLAPSED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF OLD FARMINGTON RD AND ASTONDALE RD (FFC)

[tpweather]

Very lucky so far as the heaviest rains have been further west and severe weather so far so good. Not out of the woods and see what happens over the next several hours but rainfall totals should come in less than predicted.

[tron777]

Very lucky so far as the heaviest rains have been further west and severe weather so far so good. Not out of the woods and see what happens over the next several hours but rainfall totals should come in less than predicted.

Wonderful news Tim! Looks like the center rolled right thru Atlanta.

[MVWxObserver]

Very lucky so far as the heaviest rains have been further west and severe weather so far so good. Not out of the woods and see what happens over the next several hours but rainfall totals should come in less than predicted.

Great to hear, Bro!

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

My bil's mother is under this watch as she resides in Mt Airy, NC (native hometown of Andy Griffith and not far from the VA border).

[tpweather]

Winds and rain have picked up. Still several hours before everything is out of the local area.

[tron777]

Winds and rain have picked up. Still several hours before everything is out of the local area.

I forgot to ask you Tim, did you ever get a weather station or at least a rain gauge put up at your Greenville hood? Was curious to know your totals for this event.

[tpweather]

Winds and rain have picked up. Still several hours before everything is out of the local area.

I forgot to ask you Tim, did you ever get a weather station or at least a rain gauge put up at your Greenville hood? Was curious to know your totals for this event.

Hey Les. I have nothing to measure the rainfall. Been wild down here and though the rainfall total locally will not reach the 2-3 inch mark the severe weather down here has been busy to say the least. A tornado maybe 1-2 miles away from me and have another band heading this way. The system no doubt pick up speed but has kept its strength somewhat and that is why we are hearing many reports of tornado's to the east of the low. Just got another alert for a severe thunderstorm warning.The tornado's have been mainly rain wrapped which makes it hard to see but it seems these storms will drop the tornado and then it heads back up so it does not stay on the ground very long. I was outside earlier trying to see if I could see any circulation but the clouds plus the heavy rain made it hard to see any rotation.