January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[tpweather]

No doubt a big fight Sunday evening and not talking about the football game. The warm layer fighting with that northeast wind. Wait until morning for my final forecast . Loved the runs tonight and nothing to change my mind. Heading to bed as this old man is getting sleepy or course got up at 3am this morning.

[tron777]

Backend snows are pretty lame though so we are getting the faster transfer. So Sun afternoon, Sunday night thru Mon morning looks to be the worst of it vs thru Mon evening should this trend be correct. GFS and Euro should be helpful here too in that regard.

[dce]

18.3 inches for Dayton on the 3k Nam. 19.9 on the 12k Nam! I wish I could believe this.

[tpweather]

Backend snows are pretty lame though so we are getting the faster transfer. So Sun afternoon, Sunday night thru Mon morning looks to be the worst of it vs thru Mon evening should this trend be correct. GFS and Euro should be helpful here too in that regard.

Les I have it snowing until about 5 or 6 pm Monday. The snow on Monday should have a better ratio as colder air works in as well.

[tpweather]

18.3 inches for Dayton on the 3k Nam. 19.9 on the 12k Nam! I wish I could believe this.

Doug somebody is going to get hit hard and over a foot. Wish I knew the exact location but with a slow moving mainly west to east track of the low and plenty of moisture to work with.

[tron777]

0Z NAM Text data...

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN  1P 05-JAN  -4.2    -2.6    1024      86      95    0.08     559     540    
SUN  7P 05-JAN  -4.3    -2.5    1019      92      98    0.59     559     544    
MON  1A 06-JAN  -4.4    -1.5    1013      92      97    0.99     555     545    
MON  7A 06-JAN  -4.6    -2.1    1009      89      82    0.32     546     539    
MON  1P 06-JAN  -3.2    -6.1    1007      88      95    0.04     538     532   
MON  7P 06-JAN  -3.2   -11.2    1014      87      27    0.11     538     527    

HAO

SUN  1P 05-JAN  -3.9    -4.0    1024      73      95    0.01     558     539    
SUN  7P 05-JAN  -4.2    -3.3    1020      93      97    0.24     558     542    
MON  1A 06-JAN  -5.0    -2.3    1014      93      96    0.99     554     543    
MON  7A 06-JAN  -5.4    -3.8    1010      91      96    0.44     546     538    
MON  1P 06-JAN  -2.6    -6.6    1008      86      84    0.04     539     533    
MON  7P 06-JAN  -3.6   -12.1    1015      87      19    0.04     538     527  

MGY

SUN  7P 05-JAN  -4.6    -4.0    1021      91      96    0.07     557     541    
MON  1A 06-JAN  -5.7    -2.9    1015      92      96    0.90     554     542    
MON  7A 06-JAN  -5.8    -4.8    1011      91      96    0.52     546     537    
MON  1P 06-JAN  -2.6    -6.6    1008      87      90    0.07     539     533    
MON  7P 06-JAN  -3.8   -12.5    1014      88      29    0.04     538     526    

DAY

SUN  7P 05-JAN  -3.8    -4.7    1020      62      95    0.01     556     540    
MON  1A 06-JAN  -5.9    -4.0    1016      91      97    0.63     553     541    
MON  7A 06-JAN  -5.9    -5.3    1012      91      94    0.44     546     537    
MON  1P 06-JAN  -2.5    -7.0    1008      84      85    0.11     540     533    
MON  7P 06-JAN  -4.2   -12.8    1015      86      36    0.02     538     526  

CMH

MON  1A 06-JAN  -5.8    -4.7    1017      92      95    0.37     554     540    
MON  7A 06-JAN  -5.9    -5.3    1012      91      95    0.56     546     537    
MON  1P 06-JAN  -2.5    -6.2    1008      82      77    0.15     541     534    

FGX - Big ice here  :(

SUN  1P 05-JAN  -4.6    -2.2    1025      92      94    0.11     560     541    Snow
SUN  7P 05-JAN  -3.3    -2.5    1020      90      98    0.70     560     544    Snow to SLEET
MON  1A 06-JAN  -2.8     0.5    1013      94      98    0.65     557     547    Sleet to FRZ RAIN
MON  7A 06-JAN  -2.2     0.3    1007      94      98    0.54     548     542     FRZ RAIN
MON  1P 06-JAN  -3.8    -1.8    1006      91      89    0.09     539     535     Back over to Snow
MON  7P 06-JAN  -2.6   -10.2    1011      94      90    0.25     537     528    Snow
TUE  1A 07-JAN  -5.7    -7.8    1019      87      14    0.03     541     527     Snow

[fyrfyter]

What is the Middletown/Centerville area looking like at this point? If it goes south, will that impact us as well, or just the Columbus folks? I have COVID right now, and I’m really hoping I won’t have to go back to work (I teach) until Tuesday, so I can have an extra day to recover without having to take time off. Thanks in advance!

Thanks!

Prayers that you'll feel much better soon, Casie.

My folks and I had Covid at Christmas 2021 and Christmas 2023.

Currently 21 here in G'ville and progged for around 14 Sat morning.

Thank you. Right now, I feel terrible. Can’t get much worse. I’m a kidney transplant recipient, so I’m immunosuppressed, and I get hit hard with these things. Doc called in Paxlovid, so hoping I feel better soon.

Here’s hoping for enough snow to call off Monday (and maybe even Tuesday!)..

I’m hoping the Paxlovid has you good in about two days, minus the persistent bitter taste it causes- somewhere between a metal spoon and a rubber band.

[dce]

18.3 inches for Dayton on the 3k Nam. 19.9 on the 12k Nam! I wish I could believe this.

Doug somebody is going to get hit hard and over a foot. Wish I knew the exact location but with a slow moving mainly west to east track of the low and plenty of moisture to work with.

You look to be correct! I would venture to say it will be south of Dayton, but who knows? This model has injested the new 7pm data. We will know more over the next 3 hours as the rest of the 00z suite comes in.

[Phr0z3n]

Hmmmm . It’s a very weird looking storm imo. It almost doesn’t look right, but on the bright side I like the track of the 850 low on the hi res nam.

IMG_1246.png

If that can keep south of my position that could possibly be some good lake effect.

[tron777]

20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.

[Phr0z3n]

20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.

Don’t bite it’s the nam

[tron777]

Backend snows are pretty lame though so we are getting the faster transfer. So Sun afternoon, Sunday night thru Mon morning looks to be the worst of it vs thru Mon evening should this trend be correct. GFS and Euro should be helpful here too in that regard.

Les I have it snowing until about 5 or 6 pm Monday. The snow on Monday should have a better ratio as colder air works in as well.

I could see a fluffy 2-4"on Monday if we get the right duration. You keep the upper low intact it maybe more! But man, Sun afternoon thru 7am Mon is pound town and if the NAM is right esp for folks N of the River. I won't bitch about my 10" of snow mixed in with a few inches of cement once it freezes! Going to be heavier then hell to move. Glad I have the plow this year!

[Pete1]

20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.

This reminds me of the pre Christmas monster of 2004. We got buried with snow ice sleet then came the arctic temperatures

[tron777]

20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.

This reminds me of the pre Christmas monster of 2004. We got buried with snow ice sleet then came the arctic temperatures

As far as amounts go, Jan of 1994 also hits home. Can't go with Jan of 96 unless the upper low remains intact a heck of a lot more. That s what made that one so special and such a memorable bust!

[tron777]

RGEM is coming up...

[fyrfyter]

Good lawd that’s a lot of snow!

IMG_0921.jpeg

[Phr0z3n]

I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird

[tron777]

Ice Ice Baby.png

[tron777]

I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird

Must be the reason for such heavy amounts of QPF / snow.

EDIT: Yeah it has to be, check it out! Freaking awesome! The 500 MB low remains closed and doesn't open up until the S Apps where it quickly dies.

NAMMY at 500 Baby.gif

[Phr0z3n]

I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird

Must be the reason for such heavy amounts of QPF / snow.

It is definitely. I think the upper level trough grabs the energy and neg-tilts before the transfer.

[Phr0z3n]

I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird

Must be the reason for such heavy amounts of QPF / snow.

It is definitely. I think the upper level trough grabs the energy and neg-tilts before the transfer.

All that really is missing is an Atlantic block to keep it from going out to sea. You have a nice 50/50 Low. It’s be a nice transfer to an apps runner

[Pete1]

20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.

This reminds me of the pre Christmas monster of 2004. We got buried with snow ice sleet then came the arctic temperatures

As far as amounts go, Jan of 1994 also hits home. Can't go with Jan of 96 unless the upper low remains intact a heck of a lot more. That s what made that one so special and such a memorable bust!

Jan 1996 might very well be my most memorable storm. Forecast was 1-3 inches then 3-6 then 6-10 then 10-12 inches. All as the storm was in progress.

[tron777]

I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird

Must be the reason for such heavy amounts of QPF / snow.

It is definitely. I think the upper level trough grabs the energy and neg-tilts before the transfer.

All that really is missing is an Atlantic block to keep it from going out to sea. You have a nice 50/50 Low. It’s be a nice transfer to an apps runner

That was the Jan of 96 storm. We had that block and it kept the upper low spinning over SKY for hours and hours and hours.

[tron777]

20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.

This reminds me of the pre Christmas monster of 2004. We got buried with snow ice sleet then came the arctic temperatures

As far as amounts go, Jan of 1994 also hits home. Can't go with Jan of 96 unless the upper low remains intact a heck of a lot more. That s what made that one so special and such a memorable bust!

Jan 1996 might very well be my most memorable storm. Forecast was 1-3 inches then 3-6 then 6-10 then 10-12 inches. All as the storm was in progress.

Models did not see the block and missed the slow coastal transfer and I mean slow!

[Phr0z3n]

I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird

Must be the reason for such heavy amounts of QPF / snow.

It is definitely. I think the upper level trough grabs the energy and neg-tilts before the transfer.

All that really is missing is an Atlantic block to keep it from going out to sea. You have a nice 50/50 Low. It’s be a nice transfer to an apps runner

The structure of the trough is off too for a nor’easter. It would have had to neg-tilt somewhere near the Mississippi.