January 2025 Wx Discussion

[Bgoney]

gFS doesn’t make much sense with its 12z strength of low. We finally have a system with a good temperature contrast to work with, so I would think a stronger low than it’s latest depiction

For Friday, I don’t think anything has changed from the get go, an inch or less for the majority of the region

[tpweather]

One area models seem to always have trouble with is snow on the ground. They seldom account for the correct amount of snow that may be on the ground until about 48 hours or so before a storm develops. There is plenty of snow in Canada and with a decent shot of cold headed this way you would say maybe the system will go further south. The problem here is very little snow in the northern part of the USA so in turn the system is further north. In this case and this far out I would go with a middle of the ground forecast and have a low pressure come somewhere through the Ohio Valley. That could be northwest Indiana or southeast Kentucky so a big range but hopefully gets narrowed down the closer we get to the weekend. Do I expect a cutter and most likely that is not the case and one reason not a strong southeast ridge to put the brakes on the storm. Could it get so strong that it goes to the northwest and that is always an option but with a decent high to the northwest of us and one that is maybe more important where will the high pressure this weekend be located northeast of us. If that high is to far south then yes a suppression of the system could happen and also if its to far away mixing becomes more of an issue. How strong is the high and location are important and yes getting a northeast wind can be great at times because it just keeps bringing in the cold air but sometimes to much of a good thing and the dry air stays around longer. This kind of set up imo also can bring a decent ice storm especially either side of the mountains with the upcoming system. Concerning sleet and not seeing a decent signal at the moment but if the storm becomes stronger this no doubt can up the chances for sleet.

[tron777]

12Z Euro coming in nicely for Cincy. Much less QPF to the north for I-70 Crew though. Still looking like snow, probably some sleet then back to snow at CVG. Same thing we have been seeing from the foreign models. Low tracks from ARK to KY / TN border then East bound from there.

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.6    -5.8    1025      75      99    0.07     556     537    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.4    -3.9    1019      91      98    0.30     555     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.8    -3.6    1012      90      99    0.52     550     541    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -6.0    1010      86     101    0.14     542     534    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -5.1    -8.7    1015      80      90    0.16     542     530    

HAO

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.8    -6.6    1025      70      99    0.04     555     536    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.4    -5.2    1020      85      97    0.11     555     539    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -4.9    1013      88     100    0.40     550     540    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -6.8    1011      84     100    0.15     541     533    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -8.7    1015      82      84    0.05     541     530    

MGY

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.1    -7.3    1024      49      97    0.01     554     535    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.4    -6.2    1020      72      96    0.03     554     538    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -5.5    1014      85     100    0.27     550     539    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.8    -7.2    1011      84     100    0.15     541     532    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -8.9    1015      84      80    0.01     541     529    

DAY

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -3.8    -6.9    1020      48      94    0.01     553     538    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.1    -6.2    1015      82     100    0.14     549     538    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.9    -8.1    1012      84     101    0.22     541     531    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -9.3    1015      84      69    0.01     541     529    

CMH

MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.5    -7.0    1015      67     101    0.05     549     537    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.9    -7.5    1012      79     101    0.12     541     532    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.7   -10.5    1013      75      78    0.01     539     529    

FGX - Matt!

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.4    -5.1    1025      74     100    0.09     557     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.1    -3.0    1019      91      98    0.35     557     542    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.4    -1.2    1011      93     100    0.64     552     543    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.6    -2.2    1007      87      82    0.13     543     537    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.7    -7.9    1012      81      96    0.15     542     532    

[tpweather]

Les will take the Euro and run at this point in time. Concerning a transfer to the east coast and I guess it could happen but the way its playing out I don't see that option. I believe this kind of system will end up being a more west to east system and sure it transfer energy over the mountains but not seeing a low developing off the east coast and again one reason not a big southeast ridge ahead of the system.

[tron777]

Les will take the Euro and run at this point in time. Concerning a transfer to the east coast and I guess it could happen but the way its playing out I don't see that option. I believe this kind of system will end up being a more west to east system and sure it transfer energy over the mountains but not seeing a low developing off the east coast and again one reason not a big southeast ridge ahead of the system.

That would be a plus as far as more moisture is concerned having a low of moderate strength (not too strong, not too weak). Wow! A chunk of the PV comes all the way down into the Tri-state after the storm per the Euro. Wow... second week of January is looking very cold. Then we'll see if we can cash in mid month on the reloading cold shot. Long range Euro looking interesting there.

[Bgoney]

Best run yet from EU for Cvgland, with less length of time of sleet /freezing rain

[tron777]

12Z EPS looking outstanding just like the Euro and very juicy to boot!

[Trentonwx06]

Yes, glad Euro held its ground but hopefully a smidge north so we all get the goods.

[tpweather]

Thanks guys for keeping me updated on the model runs. May look this evening but no doubt in the morning. Again chances are good for a decent system and really a tad better than normal for us locally

[tpweather]

Good thing this system develops in the central plains and then gets stronger as it heads east. I love storms getting stronger though many times for us it means a combo of precip types. From what I saw this morning this system could even have a negative tilt as heads through the Ohio Valley which could add to the fun. First we need the storm to develop lol.

[tron777]

If the Euro holds and / or gains more support, might have to start that thread tomorrow. I will be using the smoker and doing some ribs on NYD before the really "fun weather" comes.

[tpweather]

If the Euro holds and / or gains more support, might have to start that thread tomorrow. I will be using the smoker and doing some ribs on NYD before the really "fun weather" comes.

Sounds great Les and yes we just put the ribs in the crock pot this morning. Dinner is ribs,baked potato and salad. Probably catch up on some streaming of shows and I can't keep up with what show is on what streaming device. My wife is wonderful at that so that helps quite a bit.

[tron777]

If the Euro holds and / or gains more support, might have to start that thread tomorrow. I will be using the smoker and doing some ribs on NYD before the really "fun weather" comes.

Sounds great Les and yes we just put the ribs in the crock pot this morning. Dinner is ribs,baked potato and salad. Probably catch up on some streaming of shows and I can't keep up with what show is on what streaming device. My wife is wonderful at that so that helps quite a bit.

Sounds good Tim! I bought some beef short ribs the other day and those are really good in a crock pot cooked all day too! Baby backs will be going on the smoker tomorrow though per the usual.

[dce]

There should be reality show called model watchers and how much they age in the winter. I look at them once in the morning after I look at what is actually going on and then try to come up with a forecast. If someone shows a major change during the day I may look at them late afternoon or evening. I try and keep my forecast changes up to 48 hours in advance to once a day and even then I can be stubborn. Having the knowledge of a model bias is nice but also knowing certain models do better in certain situations. These are all factors I try to include as much as possible.My earlier forecast this morning is one that is vague but does have my thoughts on what may happen but no certain outcomes because its just early in the game and yes we are going in with a pattern change which no doubt tends to have models go back and forth. Once you get the pattern established then the models tend to be more reliable. Just to many parts to the equation at first with a pattern change and we are lucky to a certain extent that we have 2 cold fronts before the bigger system late this weekend. So by Friday I would expect models to be rather close with their output and then making a somewhat decent forecast is possible.

Love that approach. Emotions can take a person all over the place from one model to the next. I won't get too excited one way or the other until Thursday night/Friday. That's when we need to be concerned about north or south. Right now we are right on the middle of model consensus. Good place to be 5 days out. I like our chances with this one.

[airwolf76]

these type systems never really benefit me I am too far northeast from the main Low coming across and if or when it develops a coastal I will end up too far to the west. this system can end up leaving me in the " screw zone "

[tron777]

these type systems never really benefit me I am too far northeast from the main Low coming across and if or when it develops a coastal I will end up too far to the west. this system can end up leaving me in the " screw zone "

Yeah. The NAO Block is going to be too strong, so too much of a good thing in this case and it slides west to east. As Tim said, you won't get a transfer to a coastal, You would want to see a stronger primary low into Ohio then transfers before hitting the mountains.

[Ddmeyer004]

Les what are your thoughts on models…..I e been watching and learning more and this setup seems more like a classic Miller B type setup rather than a Miller A where it’s more northern. If that’s the case it would mean more snow and less ice for cincy…..thoughts or am I way off

[tron777]

Les what are your thoughts on models…..I e been watching and learning more and this setup seems more like a classic Miller B type setup rather than a Miller A where it’s more northern. If that’s the case it would mean more snow and less ice for cincy…..thoughts or am I way off

Dave, I think the GFS right now is the southern outlier just as the UKMET is the northern outlier. A more common ground is to meet in the middle and you've got it from the Euro, EPS, CMC, and ICON models at this time. It is a Miller B. Your thoughts are good Dave. We just need to see the models hone in on the strength of this thing as well as the blocking which will determine the track. The blocking is strong so a cutter isn't going to happen. A miss south if it comes in weak is there, but after another cycle or two, we should be able to see more of what the main p-type is going to be and for who. Amounts too.

[tpweather]

Dave always nice to see you post and hope all is well

[tron777]

12Z Euro AI looked good and continued the Euro's theme of a nice one!

[tron777]

18Z RGEM has an inch for us Thurs night / Fri and up to 2" for folks north . That would be a nice opening to the party if correct!

[tpweather]

Hey Les how are the models handling the strength of this storm. I thought they were rather close but maybe the gfs is quite a bit weaker. My thoughts were this system was getting stronger heading east and maybe I am incorrect on this part of the storm. Thanks

[tron777]

Hey Les how are the models handling the strength of this storm. I thought they were rather close but maybe the gfs is quite a bit weaker. My thoughts were this system was getting stronger heading east and maybe I am incorrect on this part of the storm. Thanks

The GFS has it weakening as it heads east due to a stronger block. Euro isn't as strong with that confluence from the block so you get a stronger system. Euro tries to strengthen the low a bit but once it hits the block, even it starts to get sheared a bit as it heads east. This happens late in the game and makes no difference to AV Country only locations E of the mountains.

[tpweather]

Thank You Sir!!

[tron777]

Thank You Sir!!

Anytime my friend! We should have an AV Outing at the Lions vs Bengals game in 2025. That's be cool as hell. Hope no one minds me sitting in a sea of Bengal's fans with My Lions gear on!