December 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Scattered snow showers have moved into the area. Actual snow squalls were located back across Central IN so we will monitor those as the evening wears on. After 8pm or so, the game should be over then we are just cold.

[tron777]

SPC mesopage shows the snow squall parameter is good N of the River.

snsq.gif

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY got to 36 and CMH 40 today.

[tron777]

1.1" at CVG per the 5pm climate report. I'm impressed!

[MVWxObserver]

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[Bgoney]

1.1" at CVG per the 5pm climate report. I'm impressed!

Cvg hit the jackpot cause traveling around a lot of the tri-state today, a dusting was the rule

[Bgoney]

Oh my! An obscene 8-14 day outlook. Lol , those interns.

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[House of Cards]

This is f'n NICE!!!!!!! Quick 1/2-1" already, still coming down at a good clip. Had my Work Christmas Party here in the Basement Pub, and went to take out the garbage after everyone left, and all of a sudden BOOM! and it's been snowing gangbusters for the last 10-15 minutes or so. So festive!

[fyrfyter]

The flash freeze we got tonight is awful. Everything untreated is covered in ice. I just drove from Springdale to Green Twp- white knuckling most of it.

There’s a 6 call pileup E275 at Cross County in Colerain. There is a destroyed police car in the median.

If you don’t have to be out- stay home!

https://www.wlwt.com/article/crash-invo ... p/63165051

[tron777]

Good morning! Grab some coffee and here is DT with another This Week in Weather:

[tron777]

I did not see any overnight snow shower action here. Cold thru Fri then by Sat we look good during the day as we warm into the U40s, maybe 50. Then rain moves in late in the day and ends on Sunday. I think another 0.25 to 0.50" is possible. Mild wx continues into next week with rain chances still hanging around. We will cool down again by mid to late next week. The pattern continues to look active also. Any snow prospects TBD. Still too early to know for sure. Right now, I see rain this weekend, around Tues of next week and probably one more then we cool off again.

[airwolf76]

^ Just watched DT new video. he is pretty much on the same page as us. looking at potential next weekend or Christmas week. sure get me in the mood . been seeing flurries flying around all night. no accumulation though

[tron777]

^ Just watched DT new video. he is pretty much on the same page as us. looking at potential next weekend or Christmas week. sure get me in the mood . been seeing flurries flying around all night. no accumulation though

It is certainly looking more interesting Charles esp towards the end of next week / next weekend. Foreign models look more promising then the American models. That is usually a good sign lol

[Bgoney]

IMG_2811.jpeg

[tron777]

Please let me know if this link does not work as I am posting from the customer side. I found this posted over on American Wx. If the link does work, then this is good news showing that the MJO gets to Phase 7 by the end of the year, and should be at a nice amplitude to get us into Phase 8 and beyond for mid to late January. Of correct, we could have a cold and stormy month! DT mentioned it in his video too. The below graphic is another way of looking at it.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/m ... f0507b.png

[House of Cards]

The flash freeze we got tonight is awful. Everything untreated is covered in ice. I just drove from Springdale to Green Twp- white knuckling most of it.

There’s a 6 call pileup E275 at Cross County in Colerain. There is a destroyed police car in the median.

If you don’t have to be out- stay home!

https://www.wlwt.com/article/crash-invo ... p/63165051

Could hear all the equipment responding to that one; actually not sure we didn't hear the actual crash too, wife and I were watching TV and thought we heard a sort of a boom. Not long after heard non-stop sirens. Happened around 10pm or so. Hope everyone is OK.

[Bgoney]

SOI has been coming down and 850 wind anomalies are slowly relaxing, so eastward movement from MJO is inevitable. However I disagree atm with the amplitude being shown in the long range . Still good news for winter prospects

[tron777]

SOI has been coming down and 850 wind anomalies are slowly relaxing, so eastward movement from MJO is inevitable. However I disagree atm with the amplitude being shown in the long range . Still good news for winter prospects

It is good news.... and we have an interesting model battle shaping up for the intensity of the MJO. GEFS and CFS have gone bonkers with its strength (relatively speaking) while the Euro and Aussies keep it much weaker. What I find interesting though with regards to the long term pattern is that it is very El Ninoish with an Aleutian Low. We have an active N stream (which is La Ninaish) but some action in the STJ too (El Ninoish). If we can get some phasing, then some bigger storms will be possible. Not sure though on that since the NAO does not look to be very negative at all. But with the active N stream, a supply of cold air and some upper lows / clippers will be lurking about. After the 20th is still looking very interesting to me.

[Bgoney]

SOI has been coming down and 850 wind anomalies are slowly relaxing, so eastward movement from MJO is inevitable. However I disagree atm with the amplitude being shown in the long range . Still good news for winter prospects

It is good news.... and we have an interesting model battle shaping up for the intensity of the MJO. GEFS and CFS have gone bonkers with its strength (relatively speaking) while the Euro and Aussies keep it much weaker. What I find interesting though with regards to the long term pattern is that it is very El Ninoish with an Aleutian Low. We have an active N stream (which is La Ninaish) but some action in the STJ too (El Ninoish). If we can get some phasing, then some bigger storms will be possible. Not sure though on that since the NAO does not look to be very negative at all. But with the active N stream, a supply of cold air and some upper lows / clippers will be lurking about. After the 20th is still looking very interesting to me.

A couple of Reasons for not believing the amplitude of the GFS atm , is because some of its ensembles are skewing the mean with them immediately bolting off the chart in 6 and I’m confident that isn’t happening . Also can’t ignore the cooler waters in the Pacific phases that usually temper a the amplitude.

IMG_2812.jpeg

IMG_2813.png

[dce]

What would be the difference from the map posted above by Bgoney and this map from the NOAA? Just trying to figure this out.

[dce]

Going by either map, not looking at the actual numeric readings that determine La Nina or a neutral Enso state, it sure looks like a La Nina to this untrained eye.

[tron777]

I think both sites calculate the SST's differently but the main idea is the same. We'll have to wait and see if this officially gets classified as a La Nina or cold ENSO neutral. Either way, it may not make a lot of difference since if it does get classified as a Nina, it'll be weak anyway.

[tron777]

In the short term, a band of light snow is expected to move into our N counties later today. Up to 1" is possible along and North of I-70 so keep that in mind if you live in this area or have to travel to the north later on. Dry and cold for the rest of us today.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 12 here in G'ville up a couple degrees from earlier. Progged to top out at around 23 today.

[tron777]