December 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

The main weather story looks to be the cold air and LES belts for the 1st week of December. For us locally... we have a weak system on Wed that may bring us a rain shower otherwise, I am still waiting for the prospects for a bigger storm as the current pattern relaxes a storm should form ahead of a new surge of cold air. I talked about this idea before back on 11/26. The dates may change, but the idea is the same.

[tpweather]

The main weather story looks to be the cold air and LES belts for the 1st week of December. For us locally... we have a weak system on Wed that may bring us a rain shower otherwise, I am still waiting for the prospects for a bigger storm as the current pattern relaxes a storm should form ahead of a new surge of cold air. I talked about this idea before back on 11/26. The dates may change, but the idea is the same.

Les not doubt the pattern is one that a bigger storm can form. When and where is anybody's guess at this point and will just wait and see. I believe Wednesday morning be careful as warm air will try and head north as the system in the great lakes will try and pull that warmer air into the system. This is a true overriding kind of event and though it usually only lasts a few hours with the cold temps and the pavements well below freezing all it takes is some drizzle or light rain to cause problems and yes maybe even start out as snow.

[tron777]

The main weather story looks to be the cold air and LES belts for the 1st week of December. For us locally... we have a weak system on Wed that may bring us a rain shower otherwise, I am still waiting for the prospects for a bigger storm as the current pattern relaxes a storm should form ahead of a new surge of cold air. I talked about this idea before back on 11/26. The dates may change, but the idea is the same.

Les not doubt the pattern is one that a bigger storm can form. When and where is anybody's guess at this point and will just wait and see. I believe Wednesday morning be careful as warm air will try and head north as the system in the great lakes will try and pull that warmer air into the system. This is a true overriding kind of event and though it usually only lasts a few hours with the cold temps and the pavements well below freezing all it takes is some drizzle or light rain to cause problems and yes maybe even start out as snow.

It's all about the timing for sure. If the current timing is right, then we'll be fine. All rain with temps in the low 40s Wed afternoon. That is how I am currently seeing it. If it happens to speed up and arrive in the morning then for sure there will be some problems.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and welcome to winter. Great call on here except for me on the snow Saturday and though I saw the path further south yesterday I did not change my forecast. Just a covering here but its the first time I have seen snow this season since I was gone in November. Speaking of November and precp was well above normal and we ended up 4.9 degrees above normal for temps so at least that prediction turned out fine. No big storms expected this week though we will stay cold.

[tpweather]

Looking ahead for the weak and minor systems in mainly the northwest flow though at times it will be from the south especially later Tuesday and Wednesday. The first piece of energy which is still hard to fine is expected on Monday but very little moisture available but its important to keep the cold in place. That is why when we get a flow from the south later on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of another cold front this could bring some frz/drizzle or light snow early am on Wednesday. These are the tricky ones models really have a hard time with and again the duration is short but the timing sometimes causes problems especially since the ground is cold. The cold front will arrive later that day and Wednesday itself will end up being the warmest day of the week. Then cold and dry until the weekend and then do things get interesting. Stay tune for that as there are signs of a stronger system but give a few days to see if that has a chance of occurring.

[Bgoney]

Freezing temps all the way down to the coast. A ways to go until we see a system where qpf is not at a premium

IMG_2719.jpeg

[tron777]

Good morning all! 0.2" at CVG for snow yesterday so that brings us up to 2.6" on the season. We'll see if anything got added after midnight later today. Not much weather for us locally this week other then the cold. A few flurries tomorrow afternoon are possible then a rain / snow shower on Wed but both of these systems look to be minor.

I am watching next weekend, Saturday in particular, to see if we can get one of those clippers to phase with a southern stream system. If it isn't that one, maybe the next system that follows it up on Tues Dec 10th? That period is looking active so we'll have to wait and see how the chips fall.

[tron777]

December stats for Cincinnati thanks to Gumball at Local 12.

DecemberStats.jpg

[tpweather]

Freezing temps all the way down to the coast. A ways to go until we see a system where qpf is not at a premium



IMG_2719.jpeg

Great map and the coastal area really is ready to explode with the temperature difference.That is one key area to watch this week as moisture will build up down there and then do we have a piece of energy come out of the southwest and combine with a northern system. Many questions but the pattern is no doubt getting busier by this weekend. The systems may stay apart and the precip for the most part would stay to our south and if they do hook up where is that going to happen and is that in the central plains,Oh valley or east coast. To get bigger systems we need warm air and at the moment not so good but its coming and I do believe a pattern change mid-month and usually this will bring a bigger storm to usher in the new pattern. The newer pattern imo looks rather mild say from the 15th or so through the 25th. When I say milder I am not talking 50's and 60's everyday but one where we see more 40's and yes a day or two milder ahead of a cold front. So far this season had not turned out like models showed and this shows us once again long term models are just not that good and the NWS really needs an update on how they give out forecasts but we have been saying this for years and we understand the government is slow with everything except when they want your tax money.

[Weathermanbryan]

Though this was a cool thing. Went down to Lake Erie to snap a few photos of the lake effect snow clouds. Looking towards Cleveland and into Lake county.

[tron777]

Wow... you can see that wall of snow off in the distance.

[tron777]

GFS and Euro both look more active by next weekend / week after next thru the end of their respective runs. Too early to know timing, location, and precip type but there looks to be 2 or 3 systems to track.

[MVWxObserver]

Looks like a very nice evening wx-wise coming up for my folks and my church Christmas banquet at a local catering establishment here in Greenville for tonight.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

[tpweather]

Enjoy Eric!!! This week rather quiet but cold. Looking ahead to next weekend and the following week starting to look busy on the models but again this far ahead don't make a forecast because each run can be different. The tellies are looking good though as the AO and NAO are both supposed to be negative and the PNA though starting out really positive this week it does slacken and is still positive but not as strong which is good in terms of getting a storm or two that is more than a clipper. Still want to see some snow cover in the central and northern plains. The upper mid-west and the northeast are doing good but need more snow west of here to hopefully delay or at least weaken any milder periods coming after mid-month.

[tron777]

33 at CVG today with no snow recorded for the date. I also had 33 today. Probably will struggle to hit 30 tomorrow with clouds and even a few flurries dotting the sky.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 33, DAY 32 and CMH 31 today.

[tron777]

19 as of 4am at CVG, 14 here as of 4:30am. Coldest morning yet for my hood. CVG I believe has to beat 17 if I recall?? Anyway... no changes for the next 7 days. A few flurries are possible later today otherwise cold. A rain / snow shower possible Wed afternoon and again on Sat. Nothing is major at all. Mon into Tues of next week is when our next more significant system of note enters the picture. Rain to snow is my current thinking there. Then we turn mild but more active with cold shots of air to our NW along with the snow. I think that this is brief. As long as the SE ridge stays weak that is, then we should be in decent shape for snow potential as we head towards Christmas time. We shall see as usual!

[tron777]

17 so far at CVG this morning. We'll have to wait and see in the next hour or so if we drop any further.

[Bgoney]

16 here


Overall in the extended, the 500mb pattern looks pretty good for North America. Keep the ridging over Alaska feeding Canada a consistent cold air mass at least keeping theme going of periodic cold invasions deeper into the US. So far ensemble’s keep the SE ridge on the weaker side as Les mentioned , which has been the case for at least a couple years during our winter months, with it being weak to non existent or completely out of place where it has no influence

[tron777]

CVG has also dropped to 16. Coldest morning for the Airport so far this season if my memory is correct. We do need a weak SE ridge IMO to get systems to track to our SE. Too much of a SE ridge and you get a cutter. Not enough of one and you either get an East Coast track or our current pattern which is NW flow and clippers with limited moisture. Due to the MJO and the 500 MB pattern we are watching in the extended range, I like the idea of a weak SE ridge which should help us to become more active. Precip type ands storm tracks TBD this far out. In short, we are pretty much on the same page Bgoney. We watch and wait.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 14 here in G'ville and progged for around 30 today.

[Bgoney]

Stubborn flurries in Columbus this morning kept there temp up. Snow showers off to our west headed east to the OV , in a scattered fashion

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[tron777]

Models have the bulk of that snow shower activity passing to our SW thru KY where up to an inch could fall. I am only expecting flurries for us in Cincy Land as we should just get "clipped" by that clipper.

[tpweather]

Great Posts this morning and I agree a few flurries should take care of business today. A few things in the long term that we need and one is a weak southeast ridge like you guys talked about but we also need more snow cover in the central and northern plains. So far the cold shots have been more directed at folks from the Missouri Valley eastward but no digging into the southern plains. Sure we can get clippers and if that continues sooner or later a stronger clipper will occur somewhere when milder air in the central plains works its way into a system but still a narrow path of heavier snow. We get the best shot of a decent snow when the cold air masses work their way down the east side of the Rockies into all of Texas. Sure we usually warm up at first but once the front moves through its the second system that forms quite often in the southern plains of western GOM that gives us a better shot winter like weather. Good thing is the GOM is still running warm since the cold shots have been mainly north and east of that area so once we can get some energy to get near that area then a much greater shot of a storm or two. We have the cold at the moment and sure we should get a milder shot in the middle of the month but no problems as we need some reloading of the cold in the arctic.

Very mild in Siberia this season while Alaska has been back and forth and when they get quite cold its for a short period as milder air from the pacific pushes the cold eastward into western Canada. Northern and western Canada have been cold recently but only a few degrees below normal on certain days but still its plenty of cold and with a solid snow pack in southern Canada that cold can work its way into the USA. Europe has been back and forth but some decent cold when it happens and that looks to happen again in about 10 days and many times that is a prelude to cold getting into the eastern USA about 7-10 days after that period.

The 500mb and the tellies look good for the next 7-10 days and hopefully there is a storm we cash in on but after this Thursday or Friday the models may get a better handle on the energy in the southwest and provide more answers as the pattern is not perfect but its not bad either at the same time.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! The SE ridge is one of the unknowns, but I do think that we will see snow cover building to our NW over the Northern and Central Plains over the next 2 weeks. I am confident on that issue being resolved. If it is, then our chances for later this month just in time for the Holiday's should go up. That is my current expectation. The question is, will it be Mother Nature's?