November 2024 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY THANKSGIVING AV COMMUNITY!!

The 98th Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade looks to be a soggy one.

A thin scattered coating here in my 'hood.

Currently 34 here in G'ville.

[tpweather]

Happy Thanksgiving!!!! One of my favorite days of the year and the weather outside is perfect. No snow here but a nice dose of rain once again which is great news. The true arctic air will not arrive until overnight and we get several days of below normal temps and a few chances of clippers. All 3 major models are showing the clipper late Saturday and early Sunday but different locations of course. The models are warming us up quicker next week and without snow cover to the west its so easy to have that happen. Will we have any snow cover by the middle of next week and if so it will be on the light side. When the milder air returns always that chance to get that last clipper with some added moisture and one that can be somewhat bigger and this happens with a big temp difference from northeast to southwest. Again models won't see this yet but something to watch later next week. We should become more active after next week and more chances of some bigger systems the flow will start to come from the pacific and this brings milder air in plus the NAO and AO should be more on the neutral to slightly positive side.

Don't be surprise to see some flakes on Friday though the NWS offices are not mentioning this and even a snow shower are two are possible. On Friday morning if its sunny then this tells me the drier air is tough and chances go down but if its cloudy all morning and then you get that period of sun in the afternoon and this can lead to those snow showers as there will still be moisture around. This should repeat next Monday as well. Best chance will be northeast of the local area but as we know a few can get into the local area.

Heading into mid Dec and it looks like we get milder but more storminess and hopefully this will lead to some decent snows in the northern and central plains and upper mid-west. This would help when the colder air returns and maybe just maybe in time for Christmas

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Just watched the video from Travis and he shows that southern Canada has been building up snow cover and that is key to keeping us with some decent cold in December. We talked about this a few weeks ago and I was counting on this happening and since it has the forecast may turn out fine. If we still saw bare ground in southern Canada then it would have hard to get the cold to make it here. So much of November is key to winter forecast and what I am seeing looks good for the upcoming winter. I still will keep the temps slightly above normal as the southeast ridge will have its time to be a trouble maker but with more chances of clippers and a few decent snows I still believe above normal with snow before all is said and done.

[Bgoney]

Inch or less for the majority of CVGland still looks good at this stage for Saturday night. The corridor along the river is the go between of exceptionally lower level dry air and DPs to a bit better moistened atmosphere just to the south. That northern edge of Qpf probably takes a bit longer to moisten up ( virga) so how many hundredths of an inch of Qpf does that eat up? At any rate, adding any kind of snow , flurries or other to this particular November is a huge victory

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

Details for snow potential: At the onset of the long term period, a
weak shortwave moves through the base of the deep trough, providing
enough upward lift to generate a band of light snow. There will be
an initial period of evaporation, likely delaying the onset of any
snow until sunset. Overall, guidance continues to waffle back and
forth a bit in the exact location of the highest probabilities (40%-
50%) of 1" or more. These amounts are currently focused across
portions of southeast Indiana, southern Ohio, and northern Kentucky,
but a dusting of snow is still not out of the question as far north
as Wilmington, Ohio. Key note: With these type of low QPF (~0.1" or
less) events, any adjustments in QPF will dramatically change the
snowfall amounts given the very efficient snowfall growth
environment. Will continue to mention this light snow potential in
the same spot as the previous HWO.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Model QPF for CVG - Sat night clipper:

12Z NAM - 0.15"
6Z GFS - 0.14"
6Z Euro - 0.02" ---

12Z HRRR is mainly S counties in KY. Central KY gets the best snows.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and funny how models many times change as early on the Euro and hrrr model higher and of course its the nam and gfs at the moment. A couple things about clipper and I mentioned this in the Dec topic but when you start seeing a southwest wind getting involved this usually means added moisture. I saw this yesterday especially in Missouri and southern Illinois and with a decent ratio some places out there could see 2-4 inches in a short period of time. Locally we are still on the northern end but have the best ratios so if the NAM is correct then your talking 2-3 inches. I need more data to support that but my guess somebody in the Ohio Valley will get to those totals. We have not seen many clippers the last few years and time to catch up on the forecasting of these events. The cold is there and that is step 1.

Today flurries flying around and still could see a snow shower as well. Models do not handle low level moisture especially in the Ohio Valley and always to much sunshine predicted like I saw yesterday from the NWS. They need to get off the script sometimes

[tron777]

I think up to 1" for the Tri-state is possible (less to the north, and more to the south) I am going 1-2" south of the ILN forecast area. That is geared more towards LOU's region. 12Z GFS coming in with 0.14" for CVG.

[tpweather]

Not making a forecast yet but hopefully by this evening. Most of what falls should stick but again always have some dry air to overcome

[tron777]

The boys had this to say:

Saturday begins dry with high pressure building to the south.
That will change late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening
thanks to a short wave disturbance in the mid level flow. Models
have been relatively consistent regarding this system, showing
light snow accumulations mainly along and south of the Ohio
River. 1 to 1.5 inches of accumulation are indicated by the
latest model estimates in those southern locations such as
Owenton and Maysville KY, with lesser amounts forecast as we go
farther north to Dayton and Columbus. There may be some travel
impacts to the southern areas by Sunday morning.

Temperatures staying below normal are forecast to rise to the
upper 20s to mid 30s Saturday, falling to the upper teens to mid
20s Saturday night.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and with the clipper getting into the computer models today it does look like a decent clipper. Again this is one that can cause a big difference in just a few miles but overall I am going to give it my best shot. Expect snow to break out late in the day on Saturday and after dark so that is even better for accumulation. I believe folks near I-70 may get some flurries at best. Then folks north of I-275 in Ohio up to southern part of Dayton I have about 1/2 inch. Then from I-275 south into the northern 1/3 of northern Kentucky expecting 1-3 inches though most will be on the lower end I see where a few spots can get totals closer to 3 inches. Once you get south of I-64 is the hardest part of the forecast and though they may have more moisture to work with they may warm up just enough to have this start as rain for an hour or two and this is a quick system that may only last 4 or 5 hours. Will check back in on Saturday but at least we have a system to talk about which is great

[tron777]

That looks good to me Tim. Higher amounts for Central KY for sure and lesser amounts to the north. I like your amounts that you have outlined.

[tpweather]

Thanks Les and if you told me what the final total would be at CVG that is not easy but always fun anyways so my final total will be 1.6 inches. That extra southwest wind getting into the system on Saturday has made me up my totals but this won't be the one back in 77 or 78 that went from flurries in the forecast at 430pm until the NWS finally gave up and I believe the final total was 6.9. This snow should not go anywhere either as the cold gets colder for Sunday-Tuesday and then what happens Wednesday is one of the possible overriding events that surprise models but a little to early. Still having problem finding the energy for later Monday and hopefully I am just missing this because another clipper may not add much to the snow cover but can keep the cold in a tad longer

[tron777]

18Z GFS holding serve. I like an inch for CVG. Less to the north, more to the south.

[tron777]

We are in the 20s now. Going to be a cold night tonight in the teens to around 20.

[Bgoney]

Busy yesterday with baby sitting. I don’t have any changes for me from 24 hours ago. Inch or less for majority of CVGland. It’s always been for me a sharp cutoff situation with the accumulating snow swath and slightly higher totals. With the battleground along the river of much drier air to the north and slightly more moist to the south . Models that weren’t showing a sharp cutoff were tossed. Hopefully a late shift more north with the higher qpf is in the cards and cvg can see some of those 2 “inch amounts….. Now, Back to being Grandpa!!!

[tpweather]

Busy yesterday with baby sitting. I don’t have any changes for me from 24 hours ago. Inch or less for majority of CVGland. It’s always been for me a sharp cutoff situation with the accumulating snow swath and slightly higher totals. With the battleground along the river of much drier air to the north and slightly more moist to the south . Models that weren’t showing a sharp cutoff were tossed. Hopefully a late shift more north with the higher qpf is in the cards and cvg can see some of those 2 “inch amounts….. Now, Back to being Grandpa!!!

Good Morning and nothing better than being Grandpa or mine call me POP. Watching the system come into play and it seems to have been on the western edge of the forecasting. What does this mean and imo the snowfall in our area is probably pushed 20-30 miles further south and like you mentioned this will put us on the edge. Keeping the forecast the same but that may change by mid-day as the system get closer. No doubt somebody in Northern Kentucky will get a decent snowfall but where is still up in the air. The cutoff is sharp like usual in these type of systems and you can go from snow to flurries to nothing in a 20-40 mile span. Sunday cold and some flurries or snow showers around but the cold is the main item

Next week we have pieces of energy around the USA and even some flow from the GOM. Can we get a couple of pieces of energy to combine and just need to wait and see but no doubt the pattern itself does show those chances.

[Bgoney]

Busy yesterday with baby sitting. I don’t have any changes for me from 24 hours ago. Inch or less for majority of CVGland. It’s always been for me a sharp cutoff situation with the accumulating snow swath and slightly higher totals. With the battleground along the river of much drier air to the north and slightly more moist to the south . Models that weren’t showing a sharp cutoff were tossed. Hopefully a late shift more north with the higher qpf is in the cards and cvg can see some of those 2 “inch amounts….. Now, Back to being Grandpa!!!

Good Morning and nothing better than being Grandpa or mine call me POP. Watching the system come into play and it seems to have been on the western edge of the forecasting. What does this mean and imo the snowfall in our area is probably pushed 20-30 miles further south and like you mentioned this will put us on the edge. Keeping the forecast the same but that may change by mid-day as the system get closer. No doubt somebody in Northern Kentucky will get a decent snowfall but where is still up in the air. The cutoff is sharp like usual in these type of systems and you can go from snow to flurries to nothing in a 20-40 mile span. Sunday cold and some flurries or snow showers around but the cold is the main item

Next week we have pieces of energy around the USA and even some flow from the GOM. Can we get a couple of pieces of energy to combine and just need to wait and see but no doubt the pattern itself does show those chances.

lol, hey POP, my daughter asked us a while back what we wanted to be called, I guess that’s a “thing” these days. Whatever the little one comes up with is fine by me.

I’m done with the forecast, once we’re within 24 hrs of event the challenge of forecasting is done for me . Let it ride, if doesn’t work out , Ma nature for the win. I just want to enjoy watching things unfold

[tpweather]

Bgoney it really comes down the first grandchild and what name they end up calling you. My oldest grandson who just turned 19 was calling me pop early on as we were slick as thieves when he was young. No matter what they call you its all about the love and that is all that matters

[tron777]

Good morning all! 17 here and at CVG this morning. The boys upped the call to 1-2" now for CVG. That kind of surprised me since the model QPF didn't go up at all. No changes from me either. I still like a inch for CVG. Lesser amounts north, more to the south. Start time of the snow fort those that see it should be in that 5-7pm range. Could be some slick spots where the snow occurs this evening and into the overnight. I have a friends surprise b-day party to go to tonight. It might be interesting driving from here to Southgate, KY lol

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A fast moving mid level short wave will rotate east across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight into Sunday morning. As it
does a weak low pressure system will track east across Kentucky
through the night. Along and north of the low, an axis of low
level convergence will shift east across our southern areas
overnight. Snow will develop across our southwest early this
evening and then shift east across areas along and south of the
Ohio River through the early morning hours on Sunday.

Models continue to show the highest QPFs across our southern
tier of counties. Given the cold airmass in place, SLRs will be
fairly high, likely on the order of 15:1 or so. This should
allow for snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches along and south of the
Ohio River with some 2 inch plus amounts possible across our far
southern areas. Will therefore go ahead and issue a Winter
Weather Advisory for most of our northern Kentucky counties as
well as Switzerland County Indiana.

As the low moves off to the east, the snow will begin to taper
off from the west late tonight and through Sunday morning across
our southeast. Lows tonight will be in the upper teens to mid
20s with highs on Sunday mostly in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

WWA issued for folks South of the CVG Metro:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches.

* WHERE...In Indiana, Switzerland County. In Kentucky, Lewis,
Bracken, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Mason, Owen, Pendleton, and
Robertson Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday.

[tpweather]

Just looking over more info and two things about the current system and one I mentioned before it it was further west than I thought plus probably the most important one is how the cold went further south overnight compared to how the models had showed it yesterday. On Thursday the models did show the cold further south but on Friday they had the cold air not going as far south and this meant imo a better shot of getting that nice southwest flow which will still happen but its further south. Small items but important and with the colder temps this really helps central Kentucky with road temps much colder. Not sure what the models are showing for total precip but just say for kicks its 0.12 and some of that will be used to moisten the atmosphere as dew points went way down last night so lets say 0.04 goes towards the atmosphere getting moist and you are left with 0.08. Normal ratio and that bring you yes .8 inches or snow. Say the ratio is closer to 15-1 which makes sense with the colder air then we are talking about 1.2 inches of snow. So yesterday I had 1.6 at CVG and with the new info dropping to 1.2 inches. The winner overnight is near the I-64 area in Kentucky and again some places there 2-3 inches very possible. Not expecting many changes today as the system has developed and is moving eastward from Missouri.

[MVWxObserver]

Had a wonderful Thanksgiving with my folks and some extended family members, 2 aunts, 5 cousins, and 2 spouses of cousins. We all had dinner at a main dining room in the big bldg here at the Brethren Ret Community where my folks and I reside and where an aunt and her house isn't far from our house at the BRC, too. Played a couple rounds of Bocce ball after the feast with a cousin, her husband, and their college-aged daughter who are from VA Beach. Their daughter Madeline is a student at James Madison U. in Harrisonburg, VA. We had a split as one team aced Game 1 and then we the other. Then went to our house for some more fellowship and visiting. Very blessed as we all had a wonderful time!

This afternoon my Mom, her 2 sisters, a niece, and grand niece are going to our newly renovated Wayne Theatre here in Greenville to see the movie "Wicked" which is a spin-off from "The Wizard of Oz".

I enjoyed watching the scattered snow showers up this way on Black Friday.

Currently 18 and progged to top out at around 28 today here in G'ville.