November 2024 Weather Discussion

[dce]

Lots of uncertainty in the extended range due to blocking, a cut off upper low and the tropics. How will the period after 11/20 evolve? Todays 12Z GFS has the cut off low coming in providing several days of cool weather and showers. Then once the core of the upper low swings thru, first flakes of the season would be possible before Thanksgiving! Some interesting times ahead friends so stay tuned to AV for the latest! Get your friends and family to sign up too! It's always been free and will always be free as long as I have any say so. The more, the merrier right? Our favorite season is closing in on us! Snow Lovers and Snow Weenies Unite!®

Wow! That's the optimistic Les we've always known!

[tpweather]

Lots of uncertainty in the extended range due to blocking, a cut off upper low and the tropics. How will the period after 11/20 evolve? Todays 12Z GFS has the cut off low coming in providing several days of cool weather and showers. Then once the core of the upper low swings thru, first flakes of the season would be possible before Thanksgiving! Some interesting times ahead friends so stay tuned to AV for the latest! Get your friends and family to sign up too! It's always been free and will always be free as long as I have any say so. The more, the merrier right? Our favorite season is closing in on us! Snow Lovers and Snow Weenies Unite!®

Wow! That's the optimistic Les we've always known!

Doug that is so true. Who took Les away for a few months? Glad he is back

[tron777]

Lots of uncertainty in the extended range due to blocking, a cut off upper low and the tropics. How will the period after 11/20 evolve? Todays 12Z GFS has the cut off low coming in providing several days of cool weather and showers. Then once the core of the upper low swings thru, first flakes of the season would be possible before Thanksgiving! Some interesting times ahead friends so stay tuned to AV for the latest! Get your friends and family to sign up too! It's always been free and will always be free as long as I have any say so. The more, the merrier right? Our favorite season is closing in on us! Snow Lovers and Snow Weenies Unite!®

Wow! That's the optimistic Les we've always known!

Doug that is so true. Who took Les away for a few months? Glad he is back

We have something interesting to track now fellas. I am awakening from my boredom lol

[tron777]

Good morning all! Look for rain late in the day and esp by this evening. A soggy night and AM commute tomorrow is ahead. No changes to the rainfall call, a half inch plus looking solid. We dry out Fri thru this weekend with the next system being pushed back until Mon night into Tues of next week. Temps thru this period are in the 50s and 60s for highs with the 40s for lows.

Things continue to look interesting in the extended range. The fun starts with the blocking, cut off low, and tropical system that may or may not hit FL. Once we get past that, a more sustainable cold period is looking more and more possible heading into the Thanksgiving Holiday. In fact, the 18Z GFS had a snow storm moving into the OV at the end of its run last night. 0Z run has it suppressed. The bottom line here is that we know it isn't going to happen esp this far out. However, the pattern is starting to look more favorable for some flakes. Stay tuned folks as we have some fairly interesting weather coming up besides mild and drought.

[tron777]

Hey Bgoney... the OP Euro does go out to 360 hours now as part of that upgrade! Awesome!!! Now we can see how good or bad it does in the fantasy range with the AI Euro and GFS.

[Bgoney]

Hey Bgoney... the OP Euro does go out to 360 hours now as part of that upgrade! Awesome!!! Now we can see how good or bad it does in the fantasy range with the AI Euro and GFS.

I just saw that, cool . Haven’t checked the other freebie model sites yet

[tron777]

Hey Bgoney... the OP Euro does go out to 360 hours now as part of that upgrade! Awesome!!! Now we can see how good or bad it does in the fantasy range with the AI Euro and GFS.

I just saw that, cool . Haven’t checked the other freebie model sites yet

Pivotal weather has it out to 360. TT is still only out to 240. Text data on Accu Wx Pro is still only out to 240 hours also.

[Bgoney]

If this comes to be, Probably won’t see this again in a lifetime. Hurricane and mid 1050s high in the lower 48

IMG_2613.jpeg

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice day for mid-November. Going to raise my totals on rainfall which I should of on the last system. Going 0.75-1.25. Why and a few reasons is the system out west is a tad stronger than I thought plus there is leftover moisture from Rafael that is hanging around the GOM and also in Mississippi this morning. With those two items plus some decent forcing I believe heavier amounts possible. Still some dry air in place but it should not take much to take care of that problem.

As usual a few folks may be a tad short on amounts and some if you get in a nice band for several hours could go higher.

November has no doubt turned out like we thought as each week gets busier and yes later in the month maybe some below normal temps. Will wait and see as we have a lot of stuff on the map and with blocking forecasts can be tougher and that looks to be the case in the coming days and weeks.

[tron777]

If this comes to be, Probably won’t see this again in a lifetime. Hurricane and mid 1050s high in the lower 48

That image definitely makes for some good wallpaper on your desktop. A pretty amplified jet stream pattern too with the big block in place.

[tron777]

Good Morning and a nice day for mid-November. Going to raise my totals on rainfall which I should of on the last system. Going 0.75-1.25. Why and a few reasons is the system out west is a tad stronger than I thought plus there is leftover moisture from Rafael that is hanging around the GOM and also in Mississippi this morning. With those two items plus some decent forcing I believe heavier amounts possible. Still some dry air in place but it should not take much to take care of that problem.

As usual a few folks may be a tad short on amounts and some if you get in a nice band for several hours could go higher.

November has no doubt turned out like we thought as each week gets busier and yes later in the month maybe some below normal temps. Will wait and see as we have a lot of stuff on the map and with blocking forecasts can be tougher and that looks to be the case in the coming days and weeks.

Hey Tim, good morning! I raised my precip amounts the other day too as you know, and a 1/2" might be a bit short. 3/4 to 1" maybe more in line to what folks will see tonight into tomorrow. It's nice to be able to raise precip amounts some isn't it versus always having to lower them? You can tell that we are slowly changing up the pattern and getting out of this drought.

[tron777]

Hey Bgoney... the OP Euro does go out to 360 hours now as part of that upgrade! Awesome!!! Now we can see how good or bad it does in the fantasy range with the AI Euro and GFS.

I just saw that, cool . Haven’t checked the other freebie model sites yet

Pivotal weather has it out to 360. TT is still only out to 240. Text data on Accu Wx Pro is still only out to 240 hours also.

I have not yet confirmed this but I am reading that the College of Dupage site has it out to 360.

[Bgoney]

Yes , COD has the upgrade EU Hres. Hoping TTs does so soon , it’s the easiest one if you’re using an iPhone

[tron777]

Yes , COD has the upgrade EU Hres. Hoping TTs does so soon , it’s the easiest one if you’re using an iPhone

I like the COD site on a PC better then TT also due to the slider and not having to click on individual model images waiting for them to load. COD gets the data populated quicker on their website as a result versus TT.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice day for mid-November. Going to raise my totals on rainfall which I should of on the last system. Going 0.75-1.25. Why and a few reasons is the system out west is a tad stronger than I thought plus there is leftover moisture from Rafael that is hanging around the GOM and also in Mississippi this morning. With those two items plus some decent forcing I believe heavier amounts possible. Still some dry air in place but it should not take much to take care of that problem.

As usual a few folks may be a tad short on amounts and some if you get in a nice band for several hours could go higher.

November has no doubt turned out like we thought as each week gets busier and yes later in the month maybe some below normal temps. Will wait and see as we have a lot of stuff on the map and with blocking forecasts can be tougher and that looks to be the case in the coming days and weeks.

Hey Tim, good morning! I raised my precip amounts the other day too as you know, and a 1/2" might be a bit short. 3/4 to 1" maybe more in line to what folks will see tonight into tomorrow. It's nice to be able to raise precip amounts some isn't it versus always having to lower them? You can tell that we are slowly changing up the pattern and getting out of this drought.

Good Morning Les and yes the pattern is changing but it has been a slow change and those tend to last longer. Decent rains every 3-4 days this time of year is liquid gold especially after the dry spell in the summer and early fall. I watched DT's video and again informative but most of the info we know and I like his long term info most of the time its just the short term storms he struggles with and that is fine because everyone has their strengths and weakness. He made one point which I made and concerning snowfall in the polar regions in Oct. Again I believe this really is something I throw out and the reason is really November. I believe November is more important with snow up there because its fresh snow that tends not to melt at all with shorter nights and colder temps. Snowfall is starting to get closer to normal and lets see where we stand by the end of the month because sooner or later the snow will not fall in those polar regions as the jet stream will be too far south. Even if we are on the border of a weak La Nina or neutral it does not change my forecast at this point but again November data to me is so important and also what trends are we see shaping up. I do agree with him about the templates they use in longer term forecast and not sure why they even give us a product that means little if anything.

[tron777]

Good Morning and a nice day for mid-November. Going to raise my totals on rainfall which I should of on the last system. Going 0.75-1.25. Why and a few reasons is the system out west is a tad stronger than I thought plus there is leftover moisture from Rafael that is hanging around the GOM and also in Mississippi this morning. With those two items plus some decent forcing I believe heavier amounts possible. Still some dry air in place but it should not take much to take care of that problem.

As usual a few folks may be a tad short on amounts and some if you get in a nice band for several hours could go higher.

November has no doubt turned out like we thought as each week gets busier and yes later in the month maybe some below normal temps. Will wait and see as we have a lot of stuff on the map and with blocking forecasts can be tougher and that looks to be the case in the coming days and weeks.

Hey Tim, good morning! I raised my precip amounts the other day too as you know, and a 1/2" might be a bit short. 3/4 to 1" maybe more in line to what folks will see tonight into tomorrow. It's nice to be able to raise precip amounts some isn't it versus always having to lower them? You can tell that we are slowly changing up the pattern and getting out of this drought.

Good Morning Les and yes the pattern is changing but it has been a slow change and those tend to last longer. Decent rains every 3-4 days this time of year is liquid gold especially after the dry spell in the summer and early fall. I watched DT's video and again informative but most of the info we know and I like his long term info most of the time its just the short term storms he struggles with and that is fine because everyone has their strengths and weakness. He made one point which I made and concerning snowfall in the polar regions in Oct. Again I believe this really is something I throw out and the reason is really November. I believe November is more important with snow up there because its fresh snow that tends not to melt at all with shorter nights and colder temps. Snowfall is starting to get closer to normal and lets see where we stand by the end of the month because sooner or later the snow will not fall in those polar regions as the jet stream will be too far south. Even if we are on the border of a weak La Nina or neutral it does not change my forecast at this point but again November data to me is so important and also what trends are we see shaping up. I do agree with him about the templates they use in longer term forecast and not sure why they even give us a product that means little if anything.

What's really become interesting about the Nina is that it maybe peaking now or has already peaked. Enso cold neutral / weak Nina is the call, one of the other. Also.... could it start to become more east based instead of westerly or central? It is better news for us if it is more east based. If this trend continues then our winter may not turn out as bad as I once thought. I am already digging the MJO. I am very curious to see the November PDO reading. My assumption is that it should be weakening somewhat. I don't know if it'll weaken enough to help out our winter so the jury is out on that. What may end up helping is the -WPO / -EPO combo that I have brought up several times. If this is true that we will see periods of +PNA / -EPO (Which is called a +TNH pattern) over North America and when that happens you will see periods of cold and snow. These things are exactly why my optimism has improved as of late. Later this month is going to be a good test to see how the late Fall period going into Met. Winter shapes up. I am very interested in this. I want to see how the 500 MB pattern evolves and how long it sustains itself.

[tpweather]

Les the main item of your post imo is the mjo. We have seen years where many items looked wonderful for a decent winter and the mjo cancels everything out and that is why the mjo really is one of the major players every year. If we can just keep it into phase 7-2 much of winter that is wonderful compared to the phases 3-6 which have seen in recent winters.

[tron777]

Les the main item of your post imo is the mjo. We have seen years where many items looked wonderful for a decent winter and the mjo cancels everything out and that is why the mjo really is one of the major players every year. If we can just keep it into phase 7-2 much of winter that is wonderful compared to the phases 3-6 which have seen in recent winters.

I agree Tim. Even if we do see periods of phases 4-6, which we probably will, as long as it keeps moving and looping back around to the colder phases (8-2) then we will have favorable windows of opportunity to cash in. The MJO is driving the upcoming cold shot we are tracking. The upcoming blocking pattern with that deep cut off upper low and tropical system (soon to be named Sara) is going to be a challenge for the models to get correct as well as us forecasters. The Euro AI is a dream solution for us phasing Sara into the trough / upper low so we see cold air and decent backside snow! GFS has done it a time or two as well in previous runs. Keep in mind I am not forecasting this to occur but it is a solution that is on the table. The block I think will be there. It is going to boil down to the timing of the ejection of the ULL and the tropical system. Definitely some exciting times ahead tracking this stuff. Anyway I am long winded in my posting today, but the point is that this is MJO driven.

[Bgoney]

Those MJO phases (7-2) are such a fascinating instigator for winter weather for all the northern hemisphere. Great Britain needs it to Block the Atlantic ,for, as they say across the pond “a proper cold spell “(which they will) and we need it to block the pacific. Without it the blast furnace doors are open

[tron777]

Those MJO phases (7-2) are such a fascinating instigator for winter weather for all the northern hemisphere. Great Britain needs it to Block the Atlantic ,for, as they say across the pond “a proper cold spell “(which they will) and we need it to block the pacific. Without it the blast furnace doors are open

No doubt! Lots of interesting things going on right now. Hopefully this won't be a one and done as far as the MJO is concerned.

[tpweather]

November so far and yes above normal in precip and that will only increase in the next 36 hours and temp wise we about 9 degrees above normal. I thought we would be in 3-5 degree above normal and that could still happen with a nice cold shot and precip wise doing exactly as I thought and maybe even higher than I expected.

Coldest temp in northern hemisphere is in Siberia with a -42 while in northern Canada the lowest I could find is -29. Interior Alaska is getting a nice shot of cold air and though a tad below normal nothing unheard of this time of year. That cold air should head towards western Canada over the weekend and Alaska will head back to near normal. This is a good sign for us as well because some years you get the heavy snow pack and the cold does not want to budge that area. This year and snowfall is normal in places but below in others plus no long term arctic outbreak in the southern half of the state.

Will be interested in how the snow cover is around November 30th across North America and though its not the tell all it can provide some clues on how the winter may shape up.

Snow cover in Siberia has picked up this month compared to October and one reason it was milder than normal early in the month which this produced more chances for snow. That seems to be changing and snow cover on this side of the planet has some chances to get snow especially in much of Canada and hopefully creeping into the northern plains and upper mid-west by the end of the month.

These are just a few items and many more to go over in the next few weeks. Every winter is different and last year imo was one of the worst I can remember and the amount of sunny days in our area was way above normal and I have seen winters with mild conditions but that usually comes with above normal rainfall but last winter was one I hope does not come around in the next several years.

[tron777]

We need to see more snow cover over the S part of Canada. It is severely lacking in those areas. Once that fills in, air masses won't be able to moderate as much. It is only mid November though so I am not too concerned yet. It should fill in soon. The key items for us are the MJO, PDO, EPO, WPO as far as the atmospheric indicators go. As far as sensible weather, our first challenge comes next week.

[tron777]

Here is a nice update from the boys with regards to our incoming rain maker and reasons why QPF has been increased.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Thickening cirrus continue to overspread the region ahead of an
approaching S/W, which will move further E into the OH Vly
tonight into Thursday. The daytime should stay dry locally as
very dry air entrenched in the area is gradually eroded into
late afternoon. A fairly rapid saturation of the profile will
occur from SW to NE this evening, allowing for steady, moderate
rain to overspread the ILN FA during the mid/late evening hours.

But until the rain arrives, a dry day is in store with highs
topping out in the upper 50s and lower 60s amidst filtered
sunshine and steady SE sfc flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Forcing and deep-layer moisture will increase abruptly this
evening, allowing for the development of widespread RA, which
will drift to the ENE through the local area through the heart
of the overnight. The steady rain will transition more to SCT
SHRA toward daybreak Thursday, but this activity should persist
sporadically at times through the day.

The latest guidance has trended a bit heavier with the QPF,
owing to the strong sustained forcing and lift and rapid
moistening of the profile through the nighttime. Latest
probabilistic guidance suggests greater than 60% chance of at
least 1" of rain for many locales from SE IN through the Tri-
State and N KY into south-central OH, with less than 20% chance
of 1" near/N of I-70. Overall, total rainfall tonight through
Thursday should generally range from around 0.5"-0.75" near/N of
I-70 to 1"-1.5" near/S of the OH Rvr.

Thursday is shaping up to be a cloudy/dreary day with
intermittent SHRA with temps generally in the mid to upper 50s.
Conditions may not trend completely dry until early Friday as
the low slowly pivots through the OH Vly.

[tpweather]

Les that deep layer moisture is from the leftover moisture of Rafael and that has no doubt increased the totals. I thought a few days back that the moisture from that system would not be part of the incoming system but really a 180 and you can see that moisture moving from Mississippi into Tn this morning plus even along the gulf coast still some moisture leftover. Tropical systems are big weather makes across a large area and even though the system had no direct contact with the mainland its moisture no doubt has and really to our benefit.

[tron777]

Les that deep layer moisture is from the leftover moisture of Rafael and that has no doubt increased the totals. I thought a few days back that the moisture from that system would not be part of the incoming system but really a 180 and you can see that moisture moving from Mississippi into Tn this morning plus even along the gulf coast still some moisture leftover. Tropical systems are big weather makes across a large area and even though the system had no direct contact with the mainland its moisture no doubt has and really to our benefit.

It sure is nice seeing the Gulf open for business again. It has been lacking for a while now, and even during the winter season. This winter, dare I say, might be trying to give us a different look then the past several. I need a few more weeks to confirm, but so far I am honestly beginning to like what I see. The next tropical influencer will be Sara and we'll see how she impacts the forecast for next week. Buckle up! The boring ride is now over.