November 2024 Weather Discussion

[young pup]

It's mainly the oaks now in my hood for leaf droppage. Most everything else is about down.

Yes the good ole oaks, bradford pears. and ginkos up here. My bet is that most of the ginkos are down now. I will need to go look at a couple of clients that have those. I hate those. lol Got some maples that still have some left.

Oaks have big leaves too but if I recall, gingko leaves are even bigger so those have to be a pain to grind up.

I think the Gingkos are just a bit smaller than the oaks. But those definitely do not like going through the leaf loader. They won't really grind and clogged up the hose some. lol

Back to weather, 1.10 inches here. It's a start.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 64, DAY 62 and CMH 63 today.

[tron777]

It's mainly the oaks now in my hood for leaf droppage. Most everything else is about down.

Yes the good ole oaks, bradford pears. and ginkos up here. My bet is that most of the ginkos are down now. I will need to go look at a couple of clients that have those. I hate those. lol Got some maples that still have some left.

Oaks have big leaves too but if I recall, gingko leaves are even bigger so those have to be a pain to grind up.

I think the Gingkos are just a bit smaller than the oaks. But those definitely do not like going through the leaf loader. They won't really grind and clogged up the hose some. lol

Back to weather, 1.10 inches here. It's a start.

Thanks for the correction JP! Glad to see your area get some rain too. I know you all have been hurting this year for moisture.

[tron777]

62 for my high today. It was a beautiful rainy day!

[tpweather]

pdo.png.9bfc1280b342855ad3738e2d763ec64d.png

That explains a lot over the past few months

[tron777]

pdo.png.9bfc1280b342855ad3738e2d763ec64d.png

That explains a lot over the past few months

Yep Tim! The PDO has been very strong. Hope to see it rise some as some of the below modeling suggests: Run as of 9/1/24:

PDO Modeling.png

[Bgoney]

pdo.png.9bfc1280b342855ad3738e2d763ec64d.png

That explains a lot over the past few months

Yep Tim! The PDO has been very strong. Hope to see it rise some as some of the below modeling suggests: Run as of 9/1/24:


PDO Modeling.png

It’s going to be awhile

IMG_2605.gif

[tpweather]

I agree at the moment getting cold from Alaska or western Canada will not happen. Good thing Alaska is cold but not the brutal cold that state can see this time of year. We are going to rely on cold air from the northeast later this month which normally means quick shots of cold but then the mild air returns. That could be the pattern this winter but again way to early to say that is the main pattern.

[tron777]

Good morning all! A nice Veteran's Day on tap and an equally nice day expected for your Tues. Lows in the 30s highs in the 60s and 50s. Increasing clouds on your Wed with rain likely Wed night ending early Thurs. Sticking with amounts in the 0.25 to 0.50" range. Then we are looking dry thru the weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Once we get past this week, we are closer tot racking stronger fronts and cold air shots after the 20th too. Hang in there folks!

[Bgoney]

Nothing like seeing a hurricane in Florida and a snowstorm in the plains /midwest at the same time on the models . Let the games begin!!

[Bgoney]

That cool down starting around the 21st is pretty much a lock. The degree and length remains a question. The AI has what looks to me like a temporary-EPO to go with that period, so if that happened a below normal temp period would result. Kind of hard to tell on ensembles if a -EPO develops since at that range highs and lows get washed out .

[tpweather]

Nothing like seeing a hurricane in Florida and a snowstorm in the plains /midwest at the same time on the models . Let the games begin!!

Bgoney you made me glance at the models early this morning . Snowstorm in the plains and no doubt that happens quite often in mid-late November but the Hurricane in Florida not so much. I am sticking to what I said about Rafael and how some models and mets a few weeks ago got all excited as some runs showed this Hurricane hitting the mainland USA. Can it happen and sure but again I do play the odds on this once again and more likely just a strong storm with tons of tropical moisture. I just hope it waits until after the 22nd to throw moisture northward since next week I will in Hilton Head

[tron777]

That cool down starting around the 21st is pretty much a lock. The degree and length remains a question. The AI has what looks to me like a temporary-EPO to go with that period, so if that happened a below normal temp period would result. Kind of hard to tell on ensembles if a -EPO develops since at that range highs and lows get washed out .

The Ensembles and AI all have a version of a -EPO. Love seeing a trough NE of Hawaii with ridging occurring over Eastern AK and Western Canada. That is the EPO domain and it does look negative to me in the extended range. If this can build in as shown (esp on the AI), then we would have a more prolonged period of below normal temps. Very interesting look coming up if it's correct.

[tpweather]

Just looking at some or forecast for the tellies and over the next week it looks like the AO and PNA will be close to neutral but the NAO looks to go negative. The mjo is weak and heading to the COD but forecasts shows it trying to head back towards phase 1 instead of moving towards the warmer phases. This no doubt is a colder look later next week but again how long is the big question.

November so far is behaving and playing out like we thought on this forum so sooner or later will break the nice streak.

Through the first 3rd of the month we are averaging 10 degrees above for temps and almost double the amount on rainfall.

[tpweather]

That cool down starting around the 21st is pretty much a lock. The degree and length remains a question. The AI has what looks to me like a temporary-EPO to go with that period, so if that happened a below normal temp period would result. Kind of hard to tell on ensembles if a -EPO develops since at that range highs and lows get washed out .

The Ensembles and AI all have a version of a -EPO. Love seeing a trough NE of Hawaii with ridging occurring over Eastern AK and Western Canada. That is the EPO domain and it does look negative to me in the extended range. If this can build in as shown (esp on the AI), then we would have a more prolonged period of below normal temps. Very interesting look coming up if it's correct.

Les I love seeing the trough NE of Hawaii almost always and with the ridging over eastern Alaska and Western Canada that is a good look for us. Though Alaska is going to be colder over the next 10 days its more a normal cold for them and this is good news. Looks like we are getting busier and finally after really a slow period for several months and Hurricanes that hit the USA were really the only stories we talked about except for the warm and dry conditions.

[tron777]

That cool down starting around the 21st is pretty much a lock. The degree and length remains a question. The AI has what looks to me like a temporary-EPO to go with that period, so if that happened a below normal temp period would result. Kind of hard to tell on ensembles if a -EPO develops since at that range highs and lows get washed out .

The Ensembles and AI all have a version of a -EPO. Love seeing a trough NE of Hawaii with ridging occurring over Eastern AK and Western Canada. That is the EPO domain and it does look negative to me in the extended range. If this can build in as shown (esp on the AI), then we would have a more prolonged period of below normal temps. Very interesting look coming up if it's correct.

Les I love seeing the trough NE of Hawaii almost always and with the ridging over eastern Alaska and Western Canada that is a good look for us. Though Alaska is going to be colder over the next 10 days its more a normal cold for them and this is good news. Looks like we are getting busier and finally after really a slow period for several months and Hurricanes that hit the USA were really the only stories we talked about except for the warm and dry conditions.

The trough NE of Hawaii would also be indicative of a -WPO. When you get the -WPO / -EPO combo, the colder pattern can sometimes be more sustainable. The last few winters -EPO's were hard to come by and when we got one it was transient thanks to the WPO being positive. The extended range models show a much more favorable Pacific pattern on last night's runs. Hoping that it pans out!

[Bgoney]

The upcoming cooldown lines up perfectly with the MJO going through 8/1 at weak to moderate intensity, given the proper lag time.

[tron777]

The upcoming cooldown lines up perfectly with the MJO going through 8/1 at weak to moderate intensity, given the proper lag time.

The MJO definitely got further along than I thought it would. Another good sign, or at least a better one. Tim mentioned it too and I am echoing it also, but we'll just have to wait and see if it stays on the weaker side, goes into the COD, etc. That should help us in figuring out how long the cooler pattern lasts around Thanksgiving and beyond.

[Bgoney]

Until then, North America warm anomalies abound

IMG_2608.jpeg

[tpweather]

Great maps. You look across the globe and really the only place beside Alaska and western USA that is below normal is Europe as Asia for the most part is milder than normal and even the polar regions though cold nothing to write home about this time of year. With such a late period getting the polar regions cold I am interested in seeing how this pans out as we head into winter. Sure we have had some late starts to cold in the polar region but I don't remember one that started this late. Must make for lost time is my guess and Mother Nature will figured it out as always. She is so busy

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY VETERANS DAY TO ANY AV VETS AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE!!

Please keep in prayer for my Marine cousin Logan, his troop unit, and all other servicemen and servicewomen as they are in battle training for possible deployment to the Middle East at some point. Logan has a wife Cahyluh (pronounced like Kayla) and they have a 6 yr old daughter Khloe.

Currently 43 here in G'ville and progged for around 60 today.

[Bgoney]

Great maps. You look across the globe and really the only place beside Alaska and western USA that is below normal is Europe as Asia for the most part is milder than normal and even the polar regions though cold nothing to write home about this time of year. With such a late period getting the polar regions cold I am interested in seeing how this pans out as we head into winter. Sure we have had some late starts to cold in the polar region but I don't remember one that started this late. Must make for lost time is my guess and Mother Nature will figured it out as always. She is so busy

I agree Tim , it’s slim pickings for large arctic air masses and what there has been so far, has been brief in general. I know it’s only mid November, but for certain parts of the world not seeing the buildup, it’s getting late

[tron777]

Great maps. You look across the globe and really the only place beside Alaska and western USA that is below normal is Europe as Asia for the most part is milder than normal and even the polar regions though cold nothing to write home about this time of year. With such a late period getting the polar regions cold I am interested in seeing how this pans out as we head into winter. Sure we have had some late starts to cold in the polar region but I don't remember one that started this late. Must make for lost time is my guess and Mother Nature will figured it out as always. She is so busy

I agree Tim , it’s slim pickings for large arctic air masses and what there has been so far, has been brief in general. I know it’s only mid November, but for certain parts of the world not seeing the buildup, it’s getting late

I third these posts. It's nice to see our pattern gradually turning more active, but I still see no arctic air invasions as of yet. Even after the 20th, that air mass doesn't look arctic for us. It will turn much cooler, if not even a little below avg but It is still not arctic in origin. Maybe after that, an air mass will be.

[tpweather]

Great maps. You look across the globe and really the only place beside Alaska and western USA that is below normal is Europe as Asia for the most part is milder than normal and even the polar regions though cold nothing to write home about this time of year. With such a late period getting the polar regions cold I am interested in seeing how this pans out as we head into winter. Sure we have had some late starts to cold in the polar region but I don't remember one that started this late. Must make for lost time is my guess and Mother Nature will figured it out as always. She is so busy

I agree Tim , it’s slim pickings for large arctic air masses and what there has been so far, has been brief in general. I know it’s only mid November, but for certain parts of the world not seeing the buildup, it’s getting late

I third these posts. It's nice to see our pattern gradually turning more active, but I still see no arctic air invasions as of yet. Even after the 20th, that air mass doesn't look arctic for us. It will turn much cooler, if not even a little below avg but It is still not arctic in origin. Maybe after that, an air mass will be.

Les I still believe the coldest of air will end up in the northeast as a -nao will help us but with the polar regions not that cold except Greenland which has been cold almost all year and below normal and that is where we may need to tap the cold air like Europe is doing. The pacific is not finished and we should see several milder episodes this winter but I keep watching the northeast to fight back and we stay on that western edge several times as well and with a fight that is why I believe precip will be above normal this winter though I like it better if the ground is not frozen to get rainfall but if its snow then I want the ground frozen lol

[tron777]

Great maps. You look across the globe and really the only place beside Alaska and western USA that is below normal is Europe as Asia for the most part is milder than normal and even the polar regions though cold nothing to write home about this time of year. With such a late period getting the polar regions cold I am interested in seeing how this pans out as we head into winter. Sure we have had some late starts to cold in the polar region but I don't remember one that started this late. Must make for lost time is my guess and Mother Nature will figured it out as always. She is so busy

I agree Tim , it’s slim pickings for large arctic air masses and what there has been so far, has been brief in general. I know it’s only mid November, but for certain parts of the world not seeing the buildup, it’s getting late

I third these posts. It's nice to see our pattern gradually turning more active, but I still see no arctic air invasions as of yet. Even after the 20th, that air mass doesn't look arctic for us. It will turn much cooler, if not even a little below avg but It is still not arctic in origin. Maybe after that, an air mass will be.

Les I still believe the coldest of air will end up in the northeast as a -nao will help us but with the polar regions not that cold except Greenland which has been cold almost all year and below normal and that is where we may need to tap the cold air like Europe is doing. The pacific is not finished and we should see several milder episodes this winter but I keep watching the northeast to fight back and we stay on that western edge several times as well and with a fight that is why I believe precip will be above normal this winter though I like it better if the ground is not frozen to get rainfall but if its snow then I want the ground frozen lol

Tim I agree with you with regards to this first push of cooler air. In fact, don't be surprised if some kind of a Nor' Easter forms before we get to Thanksgiving.