November 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning and some much needed rain once again. Looks like most folks locally will get an inch of rain and some a tad more. Rain will become more scattered late this morning and afternoon before ending. Then we have 3 nice days of fall weather with temps nearing normal. Next system is late Wednesday and Thursday. How much rain do we get and that will be determined by the path of the low. Will wait until after today's rain to see where the next system may take a path. The good thing is several systems over the remainder of November and these systems for the most part will travel over nicer vegetation instead of the brown stuff we had much of the summer and early fall.

[Bgoney]

So far cvg at .76” Kday .50” kcmh .35”

[tpweather]

What a nice system and some heavy rain along the river near Owensboro with over 3.5 inches of rainfall. Adding GOM moisture with a decent system helps and something we have seen much of the past 4-5 months. Always nice to watch systems either coming up from the southwest or just across the country because we are able to how strong these system are imo easier forecasts.

[tpweather]

What a nice system and some heavy rain along the river near Owensboro with over 3.5 inches of rainfall. Adding GOM moisture with a decent system helps and something we have not seen much of the past 4-5 months. Always nice to watch systems either coming up from the southwest or just across the country because we are able to how strong these system are imo easier forecasts.

[Mjr]

So far cvg at .76” Kday .50” kcmh .35”

Reporting 1 inch here.
Heading to church shortly.
Make it a great day all!

[tron777]

Good morning all! It was indeed a wet morning for Church as expected. Per radar, the heaviest rain is moving thru the Metro and pushing off to the East / NE. Still a few more hours of light to mod rain to go before things taper off.

Updated totals:

CVG - 1.21"
Me - 1.23"
Boone co Mesonet - 1.27"

[tron777]

The front for next week (Wed / Thurs time frame) isn't looking too impressive to me. Some light rain certainly is possible, but will leave amounts in the 0.25 to 0.50" range for now until we see how much available moisture that we have to work with. Then, another system after that as we approach the 20th. Then do we turn cooler for a bit? As you would expect, the OP GFS is all over the place. 0Z run has the cold delayed until we get closer to Thanksgiving, then you have the 6Z run bringing first flakes of the season now after the 20th.

Looking at the Ensembles, which is what we should be doing this far out anyway shows a -NAO briefly hooking up with the SE ridge but that linkage breaks down with ridging retrograding back to the west. The Aleutian ridge tries to go more poleward so we get some troughing into the East after the 20th. Nice +PNA ridging over the west into Canada too. The position of that ridge is critical for us with regards to the location of the down stream trough. It is nice seeing the ensembles are finally starting to hint at this.

What is helping is the MJO. I was wrong. The MJO stayed fairly strong thru Phase 8 and is in Phase 1 as of 11/8. It is still supposed to weaken as it heads towards 2 and 3. Then it goes into Phases 4 again for the warmer phases in early December. So this goes along with the idea of the colder pattern being transient with warmth coming back early to mid December. Now if the MJO stays weak in those warmer phases, then maybe the warmth will be somewhat muted too? We'll see how that goes. But we are seeing signs of a change coming. How long it lasts after the 20th remains to be seen.

[Bgoney]

The front for next week (Wed / Thurs time frame) isn't looking too impressive to me. Some light rain certainly is possible, but will leave amounts in the 0.25 to 0.50" range for now until we see how much available moisture that we have to work with. Then, another system after that as we approach the 20th. Then do we turn cooler for a bit? As you would expect, the OP GFS is all over the place. 0Z run has the cold delayed until we get closer to Thanksgiving, then you have the 6Z run bringing first flakes of the season now after the 20th.

Looking at the Ensembles, which is what we should be doing this far out anyway shows a -NAO briefly hooking up with the SE ridge but that linkage breaks down with ridging retrograding back to the west. The Aleutian ridge tries to go more poleward so we get some troughing into the East after the 20th. Nice +PNA ridging over the west into Canada too. The position of that ridge is critical for us with regards to the location of the down stream trough. It is nice seeing the ensembles are finally starting to hint at this.

What is helping is the MJO. I was wrong. The MJO stayed fairly strong thru Phase 8 and is in Phase 1 as of 11/8. It is still supposed to weaken as it heads towards 2 and 3. Then it goes into Phases 4 again for the warmer phases in early December. So this goes along with the idea of the colder pattern being transient with warmth coming back early to mid December. Now if the MJO stays weak in those warmer phases, then maybe the warmth will be somewhat muted too? We'll see how that goes. But we are seeing signs of a change coming. How long it lasts after the 20th remains to be seen.

You’ve got it covered Les, only thing I can throw in that would also effect temps in the long range is if the NAO stays negative, which atm looks to be transient for the long range

[Bgoney]

10am regionally cvg 1.23” kday .55” kcmh .66”

[young pup]

This rain is going to do wonders for keeping the dust down. From the road construction that is going on in front of the house to doing leaf work and having dust for lunch. Remaining leaves are coming off the trees with ease with the rain. Nice day to sit and listen to the rain hit the roof.

[tron777]

It's mainly the oaks now in my hood for leaf droppage. Most everything else is about down.

[young pup]

It's mainly the oaks now in my hood for leaf droppage. Most everything else is about down.

Yes the good ole oaks, bradford pears. and ginkos up here. My bet is that most of the ginkos are down now. I will need to go look at a couple of clients that have those. I hate those. lol Got some maples that still have some left.

[tron777]

It's mainly the oaks now in my hood for leaf droppage. Most everything else is about down.

Yes the good ole oaks, bradford pears. and ginkos up here. My bet is that most of the ginkos are down now. I will need to go look at a couple of clients that have those. I hate those. lol Got some maples that still have some left.

Oaks have big leaves too but if I recall, gingko leaves are even bigger so those have to be a pain to grind up.

[tpweather]

Good Morning once again and busy doing errands this morning and not sure how many folks need to retake their driving lessons wow. Car stop on a 4 lane hwy in the left lane because having problem with the car and need to pull over dude.

Back to the weather and I believe the tropics for the most part are done in regards to messing with the models. I know something maybe showing in a few weeks but like this last system not going to hit the mainland USA.

No doubt November has been busy and will continue but that is common for most Novembers especially after very little action the past 2 plus months.

Total here 1.47 so I was over in regards to what I thought would fall but love being over in regards to the rainfall and only if we could be over when getting snow lol.

[tron777]

1.32" now at CVG for an updated total. It has been a little beyond my expectation but not totally out of line. 1.35" here and 1.36" Boone Co mesonet.

[tron777]

Wow @ the 12Z GFS. A 1052 MB high over S Canada by Days 10-11. Hope it's not a fantasy. That is impressive for November standards.

[tpweather]

The front for next week (Wed / Thurs time frame) isn't looking too impressive to me. Some light rain certainly is possible, but will leave amounts in the 0.25 to 0.50" range for now until we see how much available moisture that we have to work with. Then, another system after that as we approach the 20th. Then do we turn cooler for a bit? As you would expect, the OP GFS is all over the place. 0Z run has the cold delayed until we get closer to Thanksgiving, then you have the 6Z run bringing first flakes of the season now after the 20th.

Looking at the Ensembles, which is what we should be doing this far out anyway shows a -NAO briefly hooking up with the SE ridge but that linkage breaks down with ridging retrograding back to the west. The Aleutian ridge tries to go more poleward so we get some troughing into the East after the 20th. Nice +PNA ridging over the west into Canada too. The position of that ridge is critical for us with regards to the location of the down stream trough. It is nice seeing the ensembles are finally starting to hint at this.

What is helping is the MJO. I was wrong. The MJO stayed fairly strong thru Phase 8 and is in Phase 1 as of 11/8. It is still supposed to weaken as it heads towards 2 and 3. Then it goes into Phases 4 again for the warmer phases in early December. So this goes along with the idea of the colder pattern being transient with warmth coming back early to mid December. Now if the MJO stays weak in those warmer phases, then maybe the warmth will be somewhat muted too? We'll see how that goes. But we are seeing signs of a change coming. How long it lasts after the 20th remains to be seen.

Great Post Les and yes the NAO going negative is good news but the mjo is still part of the forecast. Sure a very negative NAO can control the pattern in the eastern part of the country but the mjo can trump that if strong and in the warm phases. Just not sure though with the mjo and remember last year we just had that loop of phase 4-6 and sometimes 7 before it went into the cod and return to 4. Maybe we can get a loop of 7-1 and then cod back to 7. Just early in the season and we will need to start noticing what the pattern may hold for the upcoming winter. The only thing I really feel confident about is above normal precip.

[tpweather]

Wow @ the 12Z GFS. A 1052 MB high over S Canada by Days 10-11. Hope it's not a fantasy. That is impressive for November standards.

Rather wild Les but we have seen this happen where its so mild for a period of time and that region just flips. The cold over the past 5-7 days has really begun around the polar regions after such a late start. One of the latest times that I remember the really cold air starting this late in those regions. What does this mean for the winter and again no ideal just like with snowfall in those regions in October which imo means nothing

[tron777]

Things can flip on a dime, both good and bad for winter lovers. If that high isn't a mirage that bodes well for later in the season in my opinion. That tells us that the cold air is building and we're getting a good flow from Siberia. You need that connection to keep Canada filled with cold air for our systems to tap into.

I still think there is one more named TS coming from the Caribbean area again but again like Rafael, there may or may not be CONUS impacts. Then I think that tropics are about done as we head towards Turkey Time,

[Bgoney]

Kday .75 kcmh .94” kiln 1.34” cvg 1.37” Here 1.60”

[tron777]

Finals here:

Boone co mesonet 1.45"
Me - 1.39"

[MVWxObserver]

Things can flip on a dime, both good and bad for winter lovers. If that high isn't a mirage that bodes well for later in the season in my opinion. That tells us that the cold air is building and we're getting a good flow from Siberia. You need that connection to keep Canada filled with cold air for our systems to tap into.

I still think there is one more named TS coming from the Caribbean area again but again like Rafael, there may or may not be CONUS impacts. Then I think that tropics are about done as we head towards Turkey Time,

Thankful that Rafael has become disorganized and tremendously weakened.

[MVWxObserver]

My folks and I are hoping for a dry Thanksgiving as I have some cousins from VA Beach who will be in town. They've played Bocce ball e.g. in the past and would like to try out the new ball court here in the 'hood where my folks and I reside.

[tron777]

A nice Veteran's Day on tap for tomorrow with lows in the 40s and highs in that 60-63 degree range for most folks. A cool Tues with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s. Wed is back into the 60s then we get wet Wed night into the day on Thurs with that next front. A decent weekend on tap with highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s. Minus Tuesday, temps are above avg for most of the forecast period. Next front is due in around the 18-19th then we shall hopefully be tracking some cooler air by then invading the Nation.

[tron777]

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