Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

All I could manage was 78 today, 77 now. CVG also looks to have hit 78 as far as I can tell for now.

EDIT: Mesowest site has CVG topping out at 79,. but I'll wait for the 5pm climate report from the boys to confirm.

[Bgoney]

Looks cvg got 79d again. Around the state temps

IMG_2528.png

[tron777]

It is raining leaves outside now... it doesn't even look like I ground them up on Sunday.

[Bgoney]

Just another typical October record heat kind of day for the region

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[tron777]

Copy and paste that map for tomorrow.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY got to 78 and CMH 79 today.

[tron777]

61 both here and at CVG right now. Let's see how high we will get temp wise today. SPC has a marginal risk for severe wx out in our extreme Western counties. This is west of Cincinnati and LOU. It's more of a Western KY to Indy type of ordeal. For us... it'll still be windy with 30 mph gusts likely. As far as the rainfall is concerned, NAM and HRRR are still showing bands / broken lines of showers so it does not look to be a steady rain for hours on end. There will be wet times certainly but there are breaks too. Also, it'll depend on location for amounts. Some only 0.10-0.25" and others 0.50" is possible. Heaviest amounts still look to be west and north with lighter amounts south and east.

[Bgoney]

Wow ,look at those Midwest/Canada temps

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[tron777]

Wow ,look at those Midwest/Canada temps



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Is this August?

[tron777]

[tron777]

Well folks... two days in a row where BG has had some technical issues. At least we are not tracking a major weather event!

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

Interesting seeing 2004 and 1950 on the above list. It means nothing but we all remember the pre Christmas 2004 monster snow and ice storm and we also remember the Nov App. Storm of 1950. In fact the 1950-1951 winter was very good for snow around here.

[MVWxObserver]

My folks and I have some Geraniums on our patio in planters / pots and the strong wind gusts have taken out 3 of them. We planned to get rid of them anyway since the growing season is nearing a close. Ma Nature gave us a head start!

Currently 64 here in G'ville and progged for around 80.

[tron777]

70 now as of 12pm at CVG. 69 yesterday at this time and we hit 79. 80 is within reach today so we'll see. Watch we get 79'ed again.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and another beautiful day. Looks like we come up just short of 80 and I thought we had a chance with the strong southerly wind but just a few high clouds and the angle of the sun is just enough to keep us in the upper 70's. Nice to see the radar lit up west of us and they are also a tad short on rainfall as well though earlier in the spring they were going gangbusters for a couple of months. Still not much change in the overall forecast and hopefully we can get enough rain to at lease wash the cars.

Next week should be busier and I believe this is a trend that will continue each week in November as we get nearer winter. Still believe overall the month of November will be milder than normal and my guess is it will be more above normal than October but this will be caused more by overnight lows staying near to above normal for several days compared to October where the lows were mainly near of below normal for much of the month.

Yes I saw the models this afternoon and again trying to form something in the tropics and getting into the GOM. I have not been sold on this happening and still not biting what the model shows. Yes tropical moisture very possible and heck we see that in the winter but getting a true tropical system to develop and hit the mainland USA imo is about 1 p/c. Never say never as no doubt the uptick in storms the latter half of the season has been more than I expected but again once we have more systems coming across the mainland this should suppress these storms if they do form to be further south imo.

[Bgoney]

Today’s record/near record temp extravaganza

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[tron777]

78 for my hood today, 77 at last check for CVG.

[tron777]

Concerning the forecast for Halloween... I don't really have any changes. Winds will be the biggest issue gusting in excess of 30 mph. Could see some 40 mph gusts as well. I believe the severe wx threat will stay to our west. I still believe the heaviest rains are west, lighter amounts to the east. Timing... tomorrow afternoon and evening. It won't be a steady rain. We will see bands of showers (isolated t-storms) working thru. Some folks won't see much rain, others could. It all depends on how the radar looks relative to your location. Some folks will see 0.25 to 0.50" Others 0.10" or less. Just the way it goes.

[tron777]

BG was finally able to get a video in earlier this afternoon.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / CMH reached 77 and DAY 78 today.

[tron777]

Good morning and to you all! Wind and showers is the name of the game for today. IMO the wind will be more of an issue for the kiddies then the actual rainfall will be. IMO, we should see the heaviest rainfall before trick-or-treat time. Some folks will see re-development of showers (scattered) and others won't see a thing during those hours. Still thinking some folks will get shafted and others will get to that 1/2" mark. Temps in the 70s today falling thru the 60s for the kiddos this evening and eventually into the 40s by morning.

[tron777]

SPS issued from the boys due to the wind:

...GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

Winds will increase this morning with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph
becoming common from mid morning through much of the afternoon.
Winds this strong may blow around loose or light weight objects.
In addition, the winds may result in some difficulty with control
of high profile vehicles.

[Bgoney]

IMG_2543.jpeg

[tron777]

SPC has the marginal risk now placed in our area from around Cincy and points SW.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

I guess we'll have to wait and see but I have no changes to my thoughts. I still expect the front to be weakening as it moves in. I have wind gusts around 40 mph in the forecast already and I still think that looks good. A severe wind gust is 58 mph or greater by definition. The OP NAM and HRRR both weaken the action as it moves in. The hires NAM does not so that is probably why they placed the marginal risk over us. We'll just have to wait and see how this shakes out. Dews are now at 60 at CVG so that should help. Wind shear is pretty good too. CAPE will be lacking so it's a high shear, low instability set up and thus the marginal risk.