Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Season Discussion

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 107.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
1100 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 108.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
500 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

...ILEANA CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 109.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Can any of the moisture make it into the SW US next week?

[tron777]

Ileana has been downgraded to a depression and will fizzle out over the Gulf of California shortly.

[tron777]

TD 10E is now born in the East Pac:

Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 98.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

Corrected to add size of tropical storm force winds

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOHN...
...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 98.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

TS John looks to turn into Mexico this week and could it reemerge into the Bay of Campeche? We'll see!

[tron777]

Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024

...HURRICANE JOHN JUST INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES IN THE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 99.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...90 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

[tron777]

The leftovers of hurricane John may re-generate over the waters off of Mexico again.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

John came back and it a strong TS at this time. It won't leave Mexico alone lol

Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...JOHN NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 102.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...28.99 INCHES

[House of Cards]

John came back and it a strong TS at this time. It won't leave Mexico alone lol

Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...JOHN NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 102.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...28.99 INCHES

maybe they should have called it "Juan" instead?

[tron777]

LOL Dave! It's back to being a Cat 1 cane again at the last update from the NHC. What a remarkable storm!

[tron777]

Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024

...JOHN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 102.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[tron777]

Two waves off the Mexican coast right now. One has a 60% chance in the next 5 days, the other a 20% chance.

[tron777]

Both waves off the Mexican coast have a high chance to develop in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

TD 11E is near the Mexican Coast moving north bringing heavy flooding rains to that part of the country.

[tron777]

There is a wave off the Mexican coast that has a 40% chance of development.

[tron777]

The above wave now has a 60% chance.

[tron777]

The above wave now has a 60% chance.

It's up to a high chance now, 70%.

[tron777]

Once the leftovers of what is now TS Nadine crosses the Yucatan Penn and moves into the East Pac, we have an 80% chance of development over the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

[tron777]

A 90% chance now that Nadine's leftovers become a newly named system in the East Pac next week.

[MVWxObserver]

A 90% chance now that Nadine's leftovers become a newly named system in the East Pac next week.

She may go "woke" and trans to Norman.

[tron777]

A 90% chance now that Nadine's leftovers become a newly named system in the East Pac next week.

She may go "woke" and trans to Norman.

[tron777]

What was once Nadine on the ATL side is now TS Kristy in the East Pac.

Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024

...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY HEADING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 103.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

A major hurricane with this one is expected but no land masses look to be involved at this time.

[tron777]

Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024

...HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 110.1W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[tron777]

Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024

...KRISTY REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 117.2W
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES