Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter

[Bgoney]

Poor JB , he’s finally been broken ( probably temporarily) and gone with the standard generic, vague, vanilla LaNina winter forecast .

[tron777]

Poor JB , he’s finally been broken ( probably temporarily) and gone with the standard generic, vague, vanilla LaNina winter forecast .

It is the warmest forecast for the Eastern US that I have probably ever seen from him to be honest. I can't disagree with it based on what we've been discussing in this thread. But you're right. Going cold / snowy the last few years hasn't looked good on him and I'm sure he has lost subscribers because of it.

[Bgoney]

Poor JB , he’s finally been broken ( probably temporarily) and gone with the standard generic, vague, vanilla LaNina winter forecast .

It is the warmest forecast for the Eastern US that I have probably ever seen from him to be honest. I can't disagree with it based on what we've been discussing in this thread. But you're right. Going cold / snowy the last few years hasn't looked good on him and I'm sure he has lost subscribers because of it.

Oh I’m not saying he’s wrong he’s finally playing it smart and going with the higher probabilities . I’m sure all the other big guns will have virtually same forecast . Everyone uses the same data and analogs so I’m sure, if they can set aside their cold biases as JB seemingly has done , we’ll see carbon copies. But we know they’ll always be someone who goes for the winter kill simply because, what have they got to lose.

[tron777]

Poor JB , he’s finally been broken ( probably temporarily) and gone with the standard generic, vague, vanilla LaNina winter forecast .

It is the warmest forecast for the Eastern US that I have probably ever seen from him to be honest. I can't disagree with it based on what we've been discussing in this thread. But you're right. Going cold / snowy the last few years hasn't looked good on him and I'm sure he has lost subscribers because of it.

Oh I’m not saying he’s wrong he’s finally playing it smart and going with the higher probabilities . I’m sure all the other big guns will have virtually same forecast . Everyone uses the same data and analogs so I’m sure, if they can set aside their cold biases as JB seemingly has done , we’ll see carbon copies. But we know they’ll always be someone who goes for the winter kill simply because, what have they got to lose.

Great post! I agree with you and I understand the point you are making, which is 100% correct.

[airwolf76]

I know a particular utube channel that goes balls to the wall cold and snowy for the east coast and my area every year and is almost always wrong. we only get bad winters like what he predicts about once every 5 years or so.

[tron777]

I know a particular utube channel that goes balls to the wall cold and snowy for the east coast and my area every year and is almost always wrong. we only get bad winters like what he predicts about once every 5 years or so.

Is it Direct Weather?

[airwolf76]

I know a particular utube channel that goes balls to the wall cold and snowy for the east coast and my area every year and is almost always wrong. we only get bad winters like what he predicts about once every 5 years or so.

Is it Direct Weather?

[tron777]

QBO readings for 2024:

2024 -24.56 -25.54 -28.56 -23.42 -6.52 1.95 6.91 8.61 10.36

As you can see it continues to rise. The Sept reading was +10.36 so a westerly QBO is likely for the upcoming winter to go along with the weak Central based Nina. The biggest issue to me is still the very -PDO driving the bus as it has for the last several winters anyway regardless of the other factors we continue to discuss.

[tron777]

Paging Tim.... the snow cover is going to start to build in Alaska! From NWS Fairbanks...

AK Snow.jpg

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and this section of the blog will become very busy in the next few months. La Nina and will it be one we see quite often or will the west pacific be a problem. Again not all La Nina's alike but normally when one is forming this time of year the autumn is normally mild. Many times though you get a early touch of winter say late November or early December. Another feature is we tend to get wet which would be nice whether its rain or snow.

So to get these normal conditions you would see quite a bit of cold build up in northern and central Canada. This helps in a few ways and yes it builds up the cold but also hopefully the snow cover in much of Canada. Then if we can see a shift later in November and early December hopefully this can bring that early shot of winter weather

This is not a forecast this upcoming season but it does give us what happens often with a La Nina

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and this section of the blog will become very busy in the next few months. La Nina and will it be one we see quite often or will the west pacific be a problem. Again not all La Nina's alike but normally when one is forming this time of year the autumn is normally mild. Many times though you get a early touch of winter say late November or early December. Another feature is we tend to get wet which would be nice whether its rain or snow.

So to get these normal conditions you would see quite a bit of cold build up in northern and central Canada. This helps in a few ways and yes it builds up the cold but also hopefully the snow cover in much of Canada. Then if we can see a shift later in November and early December hopefully this can bring that early shot of winter weather

This is not a forecast this upcoming season but it does give us what happens often with a La Nina

That's a good post there Tim. Typically with Nina's and weak ones at that, winter normally does strike early as you mentioned. However, as we have discussed on here, ENSO events aren't acting like typical ENSO events. I still say that the West Pacific warm pool, that marine heat wave off Japan is causing the biggest issue. That in turn has been tanking the PDO to record negative levels. That also acts to enhance the Pacific Jet too. That is exactly why I continue to call for a mild winter with below normal snowfall. If we can get the Aleutian Ridge to go more poleward though with a -WPO that would help in getting a favorable pattern going for cold air into the Eastern US. The northern jet, or polar jet is typically more active in a La Nina so that would bode well for a snowier pattern for our region. If we do not see those changes, then we will see a mainly -PNA pattern which keeps the cold and snow to our NW and we would get the SE ridge, which would keep us mild and wet. It's just too early to know what exactly will happen but I did look at the latest SST's and that marine heat wave (West Pac warm pool) is still there and it doesn't look to be going away anytime soon.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

[tpweather]

Les you are 100p/c correct about the warmth off the coast of Japan. That area has been warm for how long? As we know around getting some decent storms in that area of the world usually means we get stormier in a few weeks and usually brings down some colder air as heights build in Alaska. The last few winters have been terrible and like you mention if that does not change the outlook for a cold and snowy winter goes way down. The good thing about a La Nina is we do tend to get the jet close to us during the winter and the clippers should happen more often. Again clippers though are usually a narrow area so you must be on the correct side and usually no more than an inch or two at best. Yes those can add up over time but I would like to see a least a couple big storms in the winter.

[tron777]

Les you are 100p/c correct about the warmth off the coast of Japan. That area has been warm for how long? As we know around getting some decent storms in that area of the world usually means we get stormier in a few weeks and usually brings down some colder air as heights build in Alaska. The last few winters have been terrible and like you mention if that does not change the outlook for a cold and snowy winter goes way down. The good thing about a La Nina is we do tend to get the jet close to us during the winter and the clippers should happen more often. Again clippers though are usually a narrow area so you must be on the correct side and usually no more than an inch or two at best. Yes those can add up over time but I would like to see a least a couple big storms in the winter.

Thanks Tim and I agree with you that the winter will be active for the reason you just mentioned. We've got to get a more favorable Pacific or we will have a mild and wet winter with the cold and snow NW of our area. You'll see a lot of cutters due to the SE ridge. 2007-2008 matches up well with this thinking. If you get those favorable changes in the Pacific though then watch out! 2013-2014 would make more sense. Due to the -PDO though I am leaning towards a more 2007-2008 style winter. Yes we had the March of 2008 system that year which saved our winter, but without that storm, that winter overall was a complete dud.

[tron777]

Accuwx has released their winter outlook:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-w ... on/1699821

[tpweather]

Accuwx has released their winter outlook:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-w ... on/1699821

Say it ain't so.

[tron777]

Accuwx has released their winter outlook:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-w ... on/1699821

Say it ain't so.

I know these vendors love to broad brush these outlooks and also, as you know, they are primary based on ENSO. We try and look at everything that we can on this forum, again as you know. The only beef that I have with their forecast is that they are too snowy for the Northeast. I agree with above normal temps and below normal snow for us at this time.

[tron777]

PDO reading for Sept was updated: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ ... v5.pdo.dat

-3.54 for Sept - WOW! It is the 2nd lowest PDO for Sept on record going back into the 1800s. The PDO will obviously be very negative for the upcoming winter if this is any indication. I see no evidence to change my mild winter call with below avg snowfall. Of course there will still be wintry periods and we can always get that 1 big storm to save the winter (like March of 2008) but as a whole, IMHO, it is not looking good.

[Bgoney]

PDO reading for Sept was updated: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ ... v5.pdo.dat

-3.54 for Sept - WOW! It is the 2nd lowest PDO for Sept on record going back into the 1800s. The PDO will obviously be very negative for the upcoming winter if this is any indication. I see no evidence to change my mild winter call with below avg snowfall. Of course there will still be wintry periods and we can always get that 1 big storm to save the winter (like March of 2008) but as a whole, IMHO, it is not looking good.

The bully on the block this winter for sure. There’s always one dominant feature that sets up for winter , although this has been dominant for quite some time. Going to need a -EPO for any sustained winter periods, as usual.

[tron777]

PDO reading for Sept was updated: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ ... v5.pdo.dat

-3.54 for Sept - WOW! It is the 2nd lowest PDO for Sept on record going back into the 1800s. The PDO will obviously be very negative for the upcoming winter if this is any indication. I see no evidence to change my mild winter call with below avg snowfall. Of course there will still be wintry periods and we can always get that 1 big storm to save the winter (like March of 2008) but as a whole, IMHO, it is not looking good.

The bully on the block this winter for sure. There’s always one dominant feature that sets up for winter , although this has been dominant for quite some time. Going to need a -EPO for any sustained winter periods, as usual.

100% correct! If the EPO is positive, it will be mild if not well above normal.

[tron777]

NOAA released their winter outlook and it's your typical La Nina look. For us, above normal temps and above normal precip. It's not a terrible look to be honest.


https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-wi ... tter-north

[Bgoney]

These long range winter outlooks have become anti-climactic. ENSO /analog driven which anyone can look up. I’m not knocking anyone, really, I’m not. They’re still fun to read and the different ways individuals try to hype things up. It’s just a by-product of what long range forecasting has morphed into. Everyone looks at the same modeling, same analogs , throw in the internet = conclusion. The winter outlooks are rarely a surprise, but winter usually is

[tron777]

These long range winter outlooks have become anti-climactic. ENSO /analog driven which anyone can look up. I’m not knocking anyone, really, I’m not. They’re still fun to read and the different ways individuals try to hype things up. It’s just a by-product of what long range forecasting has morphed into. Everyone looks at the same modeling, same analogs , throw in the internet = conclusion. The winter outlooks are rarely a surprise, but winter usually is

This probably means absolutely nothing, but I have noticed something with regards to winter outlooks over the last few years. Most of the hype has been for cold and snow in the East due to the set up, analogs, etc. however the opposite has happened. They have been warm and snowless. So now this year, what most folks are doing is keeping their expectations very low. I know I am. I have learned more about the PDO and since it has been so negative, I've learned that it has been the pattern driver despite the ENSO state. Anyway the point of this post is watch that the opposite happens again this year. Since most folks are going warm and snowless for the East, watch it be cold and snowy!

[Bgoney]

These long range winter outlooks have become anti-climactic. ENSO /analog driven which anyone can look up. I’m not knocking anyone, really, I’m not. They’re still fun to read and the different ways individuals try to hype things up. It’s just a by-product of what long range forecasting has morphed into. Everyone looks at the same modeling, same analogs , throw in the internet = conclusion. The winter outlooks are rarely a surprise, but winter usually is

This probably means absolutely nothing, but I have noticed something with regards to winter outlooks over the last few years. Most of the hype has been for cold and snow in the East due to the set up, analogs, etc. however the opposite has happened. They have been warm and snowless. So now this year, what most folks are doing is keeping their expectations very low. I know I am. I have learned more about the PDO and since it has been so negative, I've learned that it has been the pattern driver despite the ENSO state. Anyway the point of this post is watch that the opposite happens again this year. Since most folks are going warm and snowless for the East, watch it be cold and snowy!

Yep , my last sentence says it all

[tron777]

These long range winter outlooks have become anti-climactic. ENSO /analog driven which anyone can look up. I’m not knocking anyone, really, I’m not. They’re still fun to read and the different ways individuals try to hype things up. It’s just a by-product of what long range forecasting has morphed into. Everyone looks at the same modeling, same analogs , throw in the internet = conclusion. The winter outlooks are rarely a surprise, but winter usually is

This probably means absolutely nothing, but I have noticed something with regards to winter outlooks over the last few years. Most of the hype has been for cold and snow in the East due to the set up, analogs, etc. however the opposite has happened. They have been warm and snowless. So now this year, what most folks are doing is keeping their expectations very low. I know I am. I have learned more about the PDO and since it has been so negative, I've learned that it has been the pattern driver despite the ENSO state. Anyway the point of this post is watch that the opposite happens again this year. Since most folks are going warm and snowless for the East, watch it be cold and snowy!

Yep , my last sentence says it all

For sure!

[Bgoney]

Hate that we’re already in MJO watch mode . But we know we’re getting to the time of year its influence is significant . Your worry about the -PDO squashing its progression is a concern. Along with that progression, I think it needs to stay strong as well to really shake the 500mb pattern up