Major Hurricane Milton

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tpweather]

Hey Eric and great post about the tornado's. Overnight several water spouts in the ocean and they were quite strong. This tells me we have big time rotation with these cells and these no doubt will be an issue today and early Thursday for the southern half of Florida. Another issue is flooding and yes we know widespread flooding is likely with the surge but also the ground is wet and you can see central Florida already getting pounded with rain this morning and that will continue all day.

[Bgoney]

Getting closer to the shear , so we’ll see how much that can weaken Milty. Course the weakening expands the wind field , so , what are you going to do

[tron777]

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BY
THIS AFTERNOON...
...PREPARATIONS, INCLUDING EVACUATION IF TOLD TO DO SO, SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 84.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

NHC now has the landfall at a Cat 4, 130 mph near Sarasota.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Several tornadoes likely

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

[Bgoney]

Eye is a bit obscure on radar but it is much closer now to the NHC track

IMG_2426.jpeg

[Bgoney]

Eye more defined now. Still a bit E/S of track

IMG_2427.jpeg

[Bgoney]

Some changes this hour. Milt wobbled a bit north and is right on track now , but notice NHC has shifted landfall a bit more south of Tampa at the end of loop

IMG_2428.gif

[Bgoney]

Weakening eye wall with the dry air infiltration. Pretty much following the script now . Staying just south of TB

[tpweather]

Bgoney you are correct and the storm surge is hitting southwest Florida first and working its way northward towards Tampa Bay. No doubt it should weaken enough to be a Cat 3 which is still a strong storm. The storm is picking up speed and that is another good item to look at with this storm. Storm surges comes in all shapes and forms and one is if you have a stalled storm you can have that surge for a day or two and that is terrible. Then you have Milton who is moving in fast and yes a big storm surge but its in and out quickly. Still going to be damage and we know loss of life is likely but the folks have had plenty of time to prepare. Probably some of the biggest issues will be some of the outer island especially south of Tampa and those can really change the entire island with a storm surge like this

[Bgoney]

The only thing that probably isn’t going as forecast is the landfall. Looks to me to be sooner than forecast

[Bgoney]

Wow , I hadn’t realized how much it weakened compared to earlier , probably a low end cat 3

[Bgoney]

Winds at Tampa are still out of the NE

[Bgoney]

Eye is looking rough but on course

IMG_2429.gif

[Bgoney]

Looks like it’s going to wobble more east atm

[Bgoney]

Tampa may not get the worst of the surge but are in line for the highest winds , whatever that will be, tbd

[Bgoney]

Definitely moving more east as the eye enlarges. Possibly more weakening to go

IMG_2431.gif

[MVWxObserver]

From Wed 10/9 and Thurs 10/10 ...

1342 4 SSW Miccosukee Indian Reservation Collier FL 2612 8088 Preliminary starting point for a confirmed tornado that crossed I-75 near the Miccosukee Service Station and moved north to the Brighton Reservation. Pending storm survey. (MFL)

1352 9 WSW Weston Broward FL 2604 8052 Preliminary starting point for a confirmed tornado that moved across I-75 ... SR-27 ... and east of Belle Glade and Pahokee. Pending storm survey. (MFL)

1542 1 W Devils Garden Hendry FL 2661 8115 Preliminary starting point for a confirmed tornado that moved from Hendry into Glades County crossing SR 80. Pending storm survey. (MFL)

1555 5 ENE Pine Island Lee FL 2664 8204 Lee County Sheriff's office report tornado damage in Matlacha. (TBW)

1613 Port Mayaca Martin FL 2699 8062 Multiple reports of a tornado along the eastern shore of Lake Okeechobee near Port Mayaca. (MLB)

1615 2 NNW Page Park-Pine Manor Lee FL 2660 8188 Social media video and images showing tornado damage to homes near Colonial Blvd and Orangewood Ave. (TBW)

1620 2 SW Fort Myers Lee FL 2661 8188 Social media videos of tornado and damage near SE area of Fort Myers Country Club. (TBW)

1624 UNK 1 NE Leesburg Lake FL 2881 8188 Public reports trees down in Leesburg near US-441 and 3rd Street. (MLB)

1645 6 SSE Lorida Highlands FL 2737 8120 Social media pictures and videos of tornado near Wild Island. (TBW)

1750 6 SE Archbold Highlands FL 2713 8128 Pictures of large tornado near Brighton. (TBW)

1800 4 ESE Archbold Highlands FL 2717 8128 Video and images of large wedge tornado on the ground moving NNE near Placid Lakes near State Rd 70 and US 27. (TBW)

1802 7 W Palm City Martin FL 2715 8038 Emergency manager reports a confirmed tornado flipped a truck on Interstate 95 at mile marker 109. (MLB)

1811 4 NW Basswood Estates Okeechobee FL 2732 8091 Emergency manager confirms a tornado on the ground near Dixie Ranch Acres. (MLB)

1814 6 W Clewiston Hendry FL 2674 8103 Preliminary starting point for a confirmed tornado that formed near the Hendry and Glades County line ... crossing US 27 and moving into the Brighton Reservation. Pending storm survey. (MFL)

1815 5 SSW Port Saint Lucie St. Lucie FL 2722 8040 Video received of tree ... fence ... and patio damage north of SW Becker Rd and east of I-95. Time estimated via radar. (MLB)

1818 6 SSW Port Saint Lucie St. Lucie FL 2721 8040 Trained spotter reported a tornado on the ground near I-95 and SW Becker Rd moving north. Trees reported down. (MLB)

1830 Lake Placid Highlands FL 2730 8137 *** 1 INJ *** Reports of damage to a mobile home park in Lake Placid. (TBW)

1837 3 WSW Port Saint Lucie St. Lucie FL 2726 8040 Received photos of tree ... roof ... and window damage in the Newport Isles subdivision. Time estimated via radar. (MLB)

1838 3 WSW Port Saint Lucie St. Lucie FL 2726 8040 Video received of tree damage on SW Gatlin Blvd near SW Rosser Blvd in Port St Lucie. Time estimated via radar. (MLB)

1853 58 2 NE Naples Collier FL 2616 8178 AWOS station KAPF 1 ENE Naples reported a wind gust of 58mph as a band of Hurricane Milton moved through the area. (MFL)

1905 2 NNE Saint Lucie West St. Lucie FL 2734 8038 Reports of damage near NW Verdi Ct in Port St Lucie. Time estimated via radar. (MLB)

1908 3 ENE Carlton St. Lucie FL 2736 8039 Public reports of fence damage in the Torino area of Port St Lucie. Time estimated via radar. (MLB)

1924 3 NNE Saint Lucie West St. Lucie FL 2735 8038 Social media reports of damage to fences and minor damage to mailboxes in the location of Torino Parkway area around NW Zinnia St and NW Verdi Ct in Port Saint Lucie. (MLB)

1938 66 1 WNW Vero Beach Indian River FL 2765 8042 ASOS station KVRB Vero Beach. (MLB)

1955 5 E Holopaw Osceola FL 2813 8100 Trained spotter reports a tornado touchdown on US-192 between Deer Park and Holopaw. (MLB)

2000 1 S Winter Beach Indian River FL 2770 8042 Observed tornado with trees down near Orange Blossom neighborhood. (MLB)

2001 2 W White City St. Lucie FL 2738 8037 Multiple reports of the St. Lucie County Sheriff's office on the 4700 block of West Midway in Ft. Pierce sustaining damage. Time estimated via radar. (MLB)

2010 2 S Port Salerno Martin FL 2712 8019 Reports of damage along US1; bent power poles ... business signs destroyed ... minor structural damage & trees down. (MLB)

2010 1 SW Port Salerno Martin FL 2714 8021 Multiple reports of a tornado near US 1 and Cove Rd. Reports of branches down and minor damage to a home. (MLB)

2026 3 ESE Yeehaw Junction Indian River FL 2768 8087 Report of a tornado in west Indian River County ... near Yeehaw Junction. Report from SR-60 looking west towards Yeehaw Junction. Time estimate via radar. (MLB)

2038 4 W Lion Country Safari Palm Beach FL 2672 8043 Two different spotter reports of a tornado on the ground. Pending storm survey. (MFL)

2058 3 WNW Wellington Palm Beach FL 2668 8029 First video evidence of confirmed tornado near Southern Blvd that will pass west of Palm Beach Gardens and cross Bee Line Highway before crossing the Palm Beach County line. (MFL)

2102 2 S Saint Lucie Airport St. Lucie FL 2744 8040 Reports of damage to a Truck stop ... trees down ... and powerlines down around the area of Orange Ave near Interstate 95 in Fort Pierce. (MLB)

2110 92 4 SE Caloosa Palm Beach FL 2685 8022 Mesonet station KF45 North Palm Beach County General reported a wind gust of 92mph as a confirmed tornado on the ground passed over or very near the airport. (MFL)

2107 2 SW Saint Lucie Airport St. Lucie FL 2745 8043 Social Media report of a tornado on the ground NW of Port St. Lucie as seen on the FDOT camera on Florida Turnpike at mile marker 165. (MLB)

2115 1 NNW Lakewood Park St. Lucie FL 2755 8039 Multiple reports of a large and destructive tornado with significant damage near Lakewood Park. (MLB)

2118 1 S Port Salerno Martin FL 2713 8019 Martin County Fire Rescue reported several homes damaged and several trees down in the area of SE Federal Highway and SE Colonial Drive. (MLB)

2129 1 S Jaycee Park Indian River FL 2765 8036 Report of trees down on Beachland Blvd and A1A by the Marine Bank building in Vero Beach. Time estimated via radar. (MLB)

2129 Jaycee Park Indian River FL 2767 8036 Reports of structure damage and roof damage to buildings in Vero Beach on A1A near Jaycee Park across the street from the Village Beach Market. Time estimate via radar. (MLB)

2132 1 E Port Saint Lucie St. Lucie FL 2732 8031 Heavily damaged or destroyed homes in the Spanish Lakes Community in Fort Pierce. (MLB)

2140 1 NE Port Salerno Martin FL 2716 8018 A trained storm spotter reported a tornado with damage to roofs and trees. (MLB)

2142 Indian River Estates St. Lucie FL 2736 8031 Reports of multiple cars flipped over ... trees down ... powerlines down ... and roof damage in the Indian River Estates area in Ft. Pierce. Time estimated via radar. (MLB)

2152 1 ENE Cocoa Beach Brevard FL 2834 8061 Corrects previous tornado report from 1 ENE Cocoa Beach. Roof ripped off of Well Fargo bank near A1A and S Banana River Blvd in Cocoa Beach. Time estimated via radar. (MLB)

2215 60 8 SSE Playalinda Beach Brevard FL 2854 8057 USSF wind sensor on tower 108 measured a wind gust of 60MPH/52KT from the east on October 9 at 6:15 PM ET. Sensor elevation is 54 feet. (MLB)

2225 64 5 SSE Playalinda Beach Brevard FL 2857 8059 USSF wind sensor on tower 110 measured a wind gust of 64MPH/56KT from the east on October 9 at 6:25 PM ET. Sensor elevation is 54 feet. (MLB)

2329 58 2 SSW Silver Lake Lake FL 2882 8182 The ASOS at the Leesburg International Airport measured a wind gust of 58MPH/50KTS from the northeast. (MLB)

0120 64 Daytona Beach Intl Airport Volusia FL 2918 8107 The ASOS at the Daytona Beach International Airport measured a wind gust of 64MPH/56KTS from the northeast. (MLB)

0121 71 2 SSW Silver Lake Lake FL 2882 8182 The ASOS at the Leesburg International Airport measured a wind gust of 71MPH/62KTS from the northeast. (MLB)

0219 69 Daytona Beach Intl Airport Volusia FL 2918 8107 The ASOS at the Daytona Beach International Airport measured a wind gust of 69MPH/60KTS from the northeast. (MLB)

0225 60 2 SSE Midway Seminole FL 2877 8122 Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report from 2 SSE Midway. The ASOS at the Sanford International Airport measured a wind gust of 60MPH/52KTS from the northeast. (MLB)

0232 75 2 SSW Silver Lake Lake FL 2882 8182 The ASOS at the Leesburg International Airport measured a wind gust of 75MPH/65KTS from the northeast. (MLB)

0241 68 1 SSW Melbourne Brevard FL 2810 8065 The ASOS at the Melbourne International Airport measured a wind gust of 68MPH/59KTS from the southeast. (MLB)

0253 60 2 W Azalea Park Orange FL 2855 8133 The ASOS at the Orlando Executive Airport measured a wind gust of 60MPH/52KTS from the east-northeast. (MLB)

0309 75 Daytona Beach Intl Airport Volusia FL 2918 8107 The ASOS at the Daytona Beach International Airport measured a wind gust of 75MPH/65KTS from the northeast. (MLB)

0317 74 2 W Azalea Park Orange FL 2855 8133 The ASOS at the Orlando Executive Airport measured a wind gust of 74MPH/64KTS from the east-northeast. (MLB)

0336 76 Daytona Beach Intl Airport Volusia FL 2918 8107 The ASOS at the Daytona Beach International Airport measured a wind gust of 76MPH/66KTS from the northeast. (MLB)

0410 78 Daytona Beach Intl Airport Volusia FL 2918 8107 The ASOS at the Daytona Beach International Airport measured a wind gust of 78MPH/68KTS from the northeast. (MLB)

0411 86 1 SW Orlando Intl Airport Orange FL 2842 8133 The ASOS at the Orlando International Airport measured a wind gust of 86MPH/75KTS from the east-northeast. (MLB)

0412 60 2 SW Indrio St. Lucie FL 2750 8038 The ASOS at the Treasure Coast International Airport measured a wind gust of 60MPH/52KTS from the south. (MLB)

0413 64 1 WNW Vero Beach Indian River FL 2765 8042 The ASOS at the Vero Beach Regional Airport measured a wind gust of 64MPH/56KTS from the south-southeast. (MLB)

0453 70 1 WNW Vero Beach Indian River FL 2765 8042 The ASOS at the Vero Beach Regional Airport measured a wind gust of 70MPH/61KTS from the south. (MLB)

0455 76 11 NE Cocoa Beach Brevard FL 2846 8053 Tower 003 reported a wind gust of 76 MPH/66KTS from the southeast. (MLB)

0500 74 8 NNE Cocoa Beach Brevard FL 2844 8056 The KSC21 tower reported a wind gust of 64KT/74MPH from SE. (MLB)

0500 70 7 E Port Saint John Brevard FL 2846 8067 The KSC803 tower reported a wind gust of 70MPH/61 KT from the SE. (MLB)

0505 72 8 NNE Cocoa Beach Brevard FL 2843 8057 KSC1 tower reported a wind gust of 72MPH/63KT from the SE. (MLB)

0505 69 2 WSW Playalinda Beach Brevard FL 2863 8066 KSC3132 tower reported a wind gust of 69MPH/60 KT from the east. (MLB)

0510 67 8 SSE Playalinda Beach Brevard FL 2854 8057 USSF wind sensor on tower 108 measured a wind gust of 67MPH/58KT from the northwest on October 10 at 1:10 AM ET. Sensor elevation is 54 feet. (MLB)

0520 68 10 SSE Playalinda Beach Brevard FL 2851 8056 The KSC62 tower reported a wind gust of 68MPH/59KT from SE. (MLB)

0531 77 1 SSW Melbourne Brevard FL 2810 8065 The ASOS at the Melbourne International Airport measured a wind gust of 77MPH/67KTS from the south-southeast. (MLB)

0532 78 1 SSW Melbourne Brevard FL 2810 8065 The ASOS at the Melbourne International Airport measured a wind gust of 78MPH/68KTS from the south-southeast. (MLB)

0540 79 11 NE Cocoa Beach Brevard FL 2846 8053 The KSC3 tower reported a wind gust of 79MPH/69 KT from the southeast. (MLB)

0545 70 9 NNE Cocoa Beach Brevard FL 2846 8059 KSC403 tower reported a wind gust of 70MPH/61KT from the SE. (MLB)

0555 81 8 NNE Cocoa Beach Brevard FL 2844 8056 The KSC20 tower reported a wind gust of 81 MPH/70 KTS from the SE. (MLB)

0555 64 11 NE Cocoa Beach Brevard FL 2846 8053 The KSC3 tower reported a wind gust of 64MPH/56KT from the SE. (MLB)

0555 66 9 NNE Cocoa Beach Brevard FL 2846 8057 USSF wind sensor on tower 303 measured a wind gust of 66MPH/57KT from the northwest on October 10 at 1:55 AM ET. Sensor elevation is 54 feet. (MLB)

0608 83 13 NE Daytona Beach Shores AMZ550 FL 2929 8080 Buoy 41069 at Ponce De Leon Inlet reported a wind gust of 72KTS/83MPH from the east. (MLB)

0610 84 1 WNW Vero Beach Indian River FL 2765 8042 The ASOS at the Vero Beach Regional Airport measured a wind gust of 84MPH/73KTS from the south. (MLB)

0630 82 Daytona Beach Intl Airport Volusia FL 2918 8107 The ASOS at the Daytona Beach International Airport measured a wind gust of 82MPH/71KTS from the north-northeast. (MLB)

0721 84 Daytona Beach Intl Airport Volusia FL 2918 8107 The ASOS at the Daytona Beach International Airport measured a wind gust of 84MPH/73KTS from the north. (MLB)

0812 74 2 SSE Midway Seminole FL 2877 8122 The ASOS at the Sanford International Airport measured a wind gust of 74MPH/64KTS from the north. (MLB)

0831 87 Daytona Beach Intl Airport Volusia FL 2918 8107 The ASOS at the Daytona Beach International Airport measured a wind gust of 87MPH/76KTS from the north. (MLB)

1040 77 3 SSE Kennedy Space Center Brevard FL 2860 8068 USSF wind sensor on tower 511 measured a wind gust of 77MPH/67KT from the north on October 10 at 6:40 AM ET. Sensor elevation is 30 feet. (MLB)

1040 92 3 W Kennedy Space Center Brevard FL 2864 8075 USSF wind sensor on tower 714 measured a wind gust of 92MPH/80KT from the north on October 10 at 6:40 AM ET. Sensor elevation is 54 feet. (MLB)

1045 68 9 S Playalinda Beach Brevard FL 2852 8064 USSF wind sensor on tower 509 measured a wind gust of 68MPH/59KT from the north on October 10 at 6:45 AM ET. Sensor elevation is 54 feet. (MLB)

1050 87 3 SE Kennedy Space Center Brevard FL 2861 8067 USSF wind sensor on tower 412 measured a wind gust of 87MPH/76KT from the north on October 10 at 6:50 AM ET. Sensor elevation is 54 feet. (MLB)

1055 92 2 WSW Playalinda Beach Brevard FL 2863 8066 USSF wind sensor on tower 3132 measured a wind gust of 92MPH/80KT from the north on October 10 at 6:55 AM ET. Sensor elevation is 54 feet. (MLB)

[Bgoney]

If the eye keeps expanding eastward, landfall will be in 2-4 hours

[tron777]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...600 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Heavy rainfall continues over the central Florida peninsula with
hurricane-force wind gusts beginning to occur along the Florida gulf
coast.

A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 66 mph (106 km/h)
was recently reported at the Albert Whitted Airport in
St. Petersburg.

The next update will be at 700 PM EDT (2300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 83.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...250 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

[tron777]

If the eye keeps expanding eastward, landfall will be in 2-4 hours

Yep, I'd say a couple more hours or so. Sarasota maybe the target area for landfall.

[Bgoney]

I think it barely hangs on to cat 3 status at landfall

[tron777]

Over 20 tornadoes so far have been reported per the SPC. Some of those could be duplicates, Also heard earlier that a tornado hit the sheriff's dept in Port St. Lucie.

[tron777]

Latest dropsonde reported 952 MB for the pressure so I agree borderline 2 / 3 at landfall. Not like it will really make much difference.

[tron777]

KTBW Radar loop (Tampa) - Looks like the eye may go S of Sarasota now, more towards Venice, Englewood N Ft Myers region.

KTBW_loop.gif