Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

[tron777]

A wonderful day in progress folks with temps currently around 60 with a nice and dry airmass in place. Hoping to get out in the yard after work today to pick up the debris and then mow / leaf grind later this week. Will probably get the garden stuff put away too as the season is winding down. Granted there is no expectation of frost in the next 2 weeks but my plants are about done producing so that is the reason for the clean up. I'm trying to stay ahead of the game since we know in a few weeks time, that the weather can change on a dime so it is wise to use the calm time that we have coming to get things done outside before the Fall rains and winter eventually comes. Besides, if you sweat a lot like me when working outside, these temps for today are spectacular for not sweating when doing physical activity.

[tpweather]

I say this everyday but another great video by Brian. He is showing items on the models that I saw earlier that either were not on the models or just too far out for the models. First what he calls the dumbbell effect and this happens in the northeast. We see this in the winter where a anchored low pressure gets surrounded by smaller pieces of energy and they rotate around the main low. This time the low is expected to be somewhere in the northeast. This will keep us from getting the warmth back in from the west but also if you get a decent piece of energy this can produce a back door cold front. You see this more often in winter and early spring but they can happen even once in awhile in the summer. Will watch this for mid-month to see if we can get one of those fronts to arrive and that would put us in the 50's during the day and 30's at night for a few days. This can also be a rather sharp cutoff in temps and example being Cleveland has a day or two with highs in the upper 40's and Louisville has highs in the low 70's. Big difference is Cleveland has clouds and Louisville is sunny.

The other item he mentioned is the EPO and how the Euro wants to switch it rather quickly from positive to negative in mid-October. I am not sure on this item and will give it several more days to even entertain the ideal of this happening. The west has been quite hot most of the summer and still remains very warm and though early October you see the coastal areas that tend to get warm because of cold front coming into the northern rockies and this brings an offshore wind really this has not been the case and its just really warm everywhere in the west.

[tpweather]

Les I sweat when I post on here. Funny I sweat all the time and my wife calls me the blast furnace. She mentions at night when I come to bed the heat just radiates off me so much she even starts to sweat. My mom was this way for much of her life as well and that darn old dna is something you cant change

[tron777]

Les I sweat when I post on here. Funny I sweat all the time and my wife calls me the blast furnace. She mentions at night when I come to bed the heat just radiates off me so much she even starts to sweat. My mom was this way for much of her life as well and that darn old dna is something you cant change

I can relate Tim! I sweat with each passing model run when we are tracking snow storms in the winter time on here!

My response to your other post, is that the models aren't quite sure yet on that cold blast that BG discussed in his video today. As far as the GFS goes, one run it is there, the next it's gone. That is typical of the operational models so if we look at the overnight Ensembles to try and limit some of the model noise, you will see ridging for a large part of the country with troughing in Alaska / Pacific NW as well as New England. To your point, no big heat for us but at the same time, it's not gong to get very cold either. I still am a little suspect at a mid month cool down. Later in the month, yes! I think some of the Operational models are rushing this just a bit. However with that being said, we have tons and tons of time to watch the trends over the next few weeks to see if this is correct or is it being rushed.

[tron777]

71 here today, CVG 72. Lows should drop into the 40s tonight. Watch for dense fog in the morning.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 73, DAY 71 and CMH 72 today.

[tron777]

Good morning! Look for patchy dense fog this morning otherwise temps in the upper 40s to low 50s this morning. We will see sunshine and highs 75 to 80 today. We should be around 80 Fri and Sat and in the 80s on Sun ahead of our next front. Still looking at a few storms Sun afternoon and evening with the front but not looking like a lot of coverage on this at all.

We will see more sunshine early next week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for the 1st half of next week. Our next significant rain chance TBD. Still, I am watching the potential to perhaps see a mid month cool shot of air that may last a few days before we warm up again. I still do not know when the first frost of the season will be.

[tron777]

NEW This Week in Weather from DT:

[tpweather]

Good Morning and love the video by DT. When he shoots on Joe B. it shows the different opinions on climate change. Climate change should be talked about but folks become so sure they have the correct conclusion. I believe many things cause climate changes though most are because of Mother Nature and not man made. I do believe the warm oceans near the Asian coast are in part to underwater volcano's and has we are aware having those warm waters there are going to be changes. Are they short term or longer term is another question. They should have a tv show on climate change.

La Nina and DT mentioned this and how the models are seeing a very short-lived one at best. Question is do we have volcano action on the west coast of South America that is causing water to warm quickly near the coast and expand which gets the waters back to normal very quickly. Again these are just some thoughts of what may be happening and need a bigger brain than I have to figure this out. One last thought and then I will post more on the upcoming pattern. What I have seen over the past decade or so is during the spring we have cooler weather later and later into April and May but in the fall warmer weather later in October and November. That is an observation but what cause this and again could be many items that cause this but my out there opinion is the axis of earth has shifted every so slightly and we see these changes. No way I can prove that and would love see some these top folks look at this as well. Off my bandwagon and will start posting about the upcoming pattern which looks great except for the lack of rain

[tpweather]

Good Morning and looks like a very nice pattern setting up with the warmest period today through Sunday when a decent cold front arrives. I agree with Les not a ton of moisture but still could see a few showers pop up later in the day. Sunday looks to be the warmest day as we are just southeast of the cold front. Do we see 80 and again with the recent rains over a large area those winds from the south are traveling over the wet ground and this in turn can cause a degree or two difference in temps. Again over the next 4 days it really means little in terms of weather and if we see 78 or 81 its not going to be bad as any return of higher dew points will be short-lived. Next week we start out with the cooler air with temps in the 60's during the day and 40's at night. Later in the week we get somewhat warmer which is normal before another cold front arrives probably by the weekend. That looks like the period where we can get some frost in our area and though CVG and the inner city areas may have a harder time we know some of the outlying areas can no doubt get their first frost.

The trends in the models has been to keep the tropics less active starting next week and also in the longer term it shows the ridge in the central part of the country moving slowing west which brings in more chances for cool shots to the eastern 1/3 of the country. This is rather common for mid-October.

[tpweather]

Wow I must have spent the night at a Holiday Inn Express with all my posts.

[Bgoney]

So many getter done days this summer/fall , I’m all caught up. The 500mb pattern (especially PAC) has been set for months with only a tropical system to interrupt. Might be awhile until we break out of it .

[tron777]

So many getter done days this summer/fall , I’m all caught up. The 500mb pattern (especially PAC) has been set for months with only a tropical system to interrupt. Might be awhile until we break out of it .

Great posts this morning and I agree with you Bgoney. My guess is later in October but until then, what we see is what we get, minus a brief interruption come mid month with a quick hitting shot of cold air being possible. Still not seeing much rain or the cold shot lasting too long anyway.

[tron777]

Wow I must have spent the night at a Holiday Inn Express with all my posts.

In all seriousness though, I believe the pattern to be rather boring for the next 2 or 3 weeks. Then, hopefully we can get back into some much needed rainfall and maybe a little severe wx too since we still have a lot of warmth around.

[tpweather]

Just looking at the pattern and especially over North America. Where is the cold building up over the next week and its not Alaska but looks to be over North Central and North East Canada. Again this is not the coldest air you see for this time of year but cold enough. I believe the ridge out west is trying to build more west and by later next week further north into the western part of Canada. This in turn will bring imo cold shots into the eastern USA. The coldest may well be in the northeast USA but I believe we are far enough away from the main ridging that those cold shots will give us a decent shot of frost mid-month. This is typical for La Nina's that are starting and usually once you get a period of cold air then you have a rather mild period until early-mid December. This happens because the cold will start building up in Alaska and of course northern and central Canada during November. Would love to see a stormier period with more chances of rain but again that may be towards mid November the way I see things panning out at the moment. A dry October and again we have seen this many times and though usually we tend to get wetter in the second half of the month this year may not turn out like we hope.

[tron777]

Just looking at the pattern and especially over North America. Where is the cold building up over the next week and its not Alaska but looks to be over North Central and North East Canada. Again this is not the coldest air you see for this time of year but cold enough. I believe the ridge out west is trying to build more west and by later next week further north into the western part of Canada. This in turn will bring imo cold shots into the eastern USA. The coldest may well be in the northeast USA but I believe we are far enough away from the main ridging that those cold shots will give us a decent shot of frost mid-month. This is typical for La Nina's that are starting and usually once you get a period of cold air then you have a rather mild period until early-mid December. This happens because the cold will start building up in Alaska and of course northern and central Canada during November. Would love to see a stormier period with more chances of rain but again that may be towards mid November the way I see things panning out at the moment. A dry October and again we have seen this many times and though usually we tend to get wetter in the second half of the month this year may not turn out like we hope.

Tim, what you have described is the EPO timing negative, like what BG showed in his video the other day with regards to the EPO forecast from the Euro. That is exactly what we would need to get a shot of colder air in here and an early season frost. I am watching the cold shot potential around mid month closely. Not ready to bite just yet or if it does come, I still believe it'll be short lived. Again, tons of time to watch and adjust my thinking on this. Great post though as always from you explaining what could happen in the longer term.

[MVWxObserver]

Good Morning and love the video by DT. When he shoots on Joe B. it shows the different opinions on climate change. Climate change should be talked about but folks become so sure they have the correct conclusion. I believe many things cause climate changes though most are because of Mother Nature and not man made. I do believe the warm oceans near the Asian coast are in part to underwater volcano's and has we are aware having those warm waters there are going to be changes. Are they short term or longer term is another question. They should have a tv show on climate change.

La Nina and DT mentioned this and how the models are seeing a very short-lived one at best. Question is do we have volcano action on the west coast of South America that is causing water to warm quickly near the coast and expand which gets the waters back to normal very quickly. Again these are just some thoughts of what may be happening and need a bigger brain than I have to figure this out. One last thought and then I will post more on the upcoming pattern. What I have seen over the past decade or so is during the spring we have cooler weather later and later into April and May but in the fall warmer weather later in October and November. That is an observation but what cause this and again could be many items that cause this but my out there opinion is the axis of earth has shifted every so slightly and we see these changes. No way I can prove that and would love see some these top folks look at this as well. Off my bandwagon and will start posting about the upcoming pattern which looks great except for the lack of rain

Sadly, the other side of the aisle just clings to that climate change, climate change, climate change fanaticism. Windmills and tulips.

Its natural cycle of things in the atmosphere that's been going on for centuries.

[Bgoney]

Once we get done with the first week , normal lows dip into the 40s and highs in the 60s , so good timing with the cool down.

IMG_2386.jpeg

[tron777]

Once we get done with the first week , normal lows dip into the 40s and highs in the 60s , so good timing with the cool down.

Great post! The averages this time of year start to drop more rapidly with the increase in loss of daylight. So we are just keeping pace with the climate normals as you mentioned. A high in the 50s with lows in the 30s, now that is below avg and would be more November like then October like. I don't see that coming anytime soon however.

[Bgoney]

Improvements for SW Ohio and NK. Not much improvements for eastern Ohio and WV. Need October to be close to normal with QpF , otherwise our recovery comes to a halt

IMG_2387.png

[tron777]

The CPC's 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day outlooks for precip are below avg for a large part of the country. The only areas that are near normal or above are the West Coast, SW US, and FL.

[tpweather]

Improvements for SW Ohio and NK. Not much improvements for eastern Ohio and WV. Need October to be close to normal with QpF , otherwise our recovery comes to a halt




IMG_2387.png

I have seen short term droughts before but this is more widespread but also many locations on the year are near or above rainfall totals. When the dry periods come they hit hard but also when it rains it seems to pour.

[tron777]

Well Tim... today's 12Z GFS in the fantasy range has your name written all over it. First frost around the 17th or 18th?

[tpweather]

Well Tim... today's 12Z GFS in the fantasy range has your name written all over it. First frost around the 17th or 18th?

Hey Les and we understand that if the tropics die down and you see most of the action south of Florida or even south of Cuba chances go up for some decent cold fronts. I still believe another reason is the ridging out west which makes a run at us the next few days ends up heading west later next week with the ridging moving up into western Canada. That has been my thought for awhile and again with no true cold air heading into Alaska that I can see this also gives me hope we get these cold fronts coming through here starting with a nice one later Sunday and then maybe another one or two the following weekend into the week of Oct 14th. Once again if the tropics decide to spend more time near the mainland USA then the chances of colder air does goes down.