Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

The way October is starting out, I would venture to say near normal, maybe slightly above in temps and below normal precip is a decent call. The first 10 days or so of the month, from an overall sense, look tranquil.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and October is finally here I am thrilled. After today as Les mentioned a dry period heading this way but again early October is known for drier weather during the first half of the month and then we start seeing another rainy season. Do we see 80 over the next say 7 days. Maybe and its different than what we saw in September. September we had the drought and temps just soared for many days. We have much better vegetation since we got plenty of rainfall so clouds do show up most every day around the noon hour for an hour or two and that can hold back temps a few degrees. The best shot of 80 is ahead of a cold front and that day looks like Friday through Sunday. No extended 80's and my guess after the front comes through that should be it for the 80's until next April or May. The model in the extended does show more ridging but I expect that the strongest part of that will be west of here and not like September when we square in the middle of that ridging.

[tron777]

I agree Tim... I see the low 80s on Friday ahead of another dry frontal passage to knock us back into the 70s for the weekend. The Gulf is closed for business for a while once again so these fronts coming in from the NW will be starved for moisture. Agree with you that the heat will be West of us where the core of the ridging is. I see 70s mainly for highs and 50s for lows, but a morning or two in the 40s is likely as well as a day or two in the low 80s in the afternoon. Very nice fall weather to be honest starting tomorrow.

[Bgoney]

October is a return of the 500mb pattern “as ugly as it gets “ for drought areas and recovery, not just in the OV but Midwest and plains. The GOA lows slamming BC and staying far north through the first half. The ridge won’t be centered over the Great Lakes/Canada but a bit more west thats still a very dry pattern (unless tropical system can intervene). We’ll see cool fronts of course but since Canada remains largely above normal, nothing noteworthy or unusual and short lived

[tpweather]

October is a return of the 500mb pattern “as ugly as it gets “ for drought areas and recovery, not just in the OV but Midwest and plains. The GOA lows slamming BC and staying far north through the first half. The ridge won’t be centered over the Great Lakes/Canada but a bit more west thats still a very dry pattern (unless tropical system can intervene). We’ll see cool fronts of course but since Canada remains largely above normal, nothing noteworthy or unusual and short lived

I agree and the east coast should have more troughs as things balance out. To get a decent shot of cool air that has lows in the upper 30's or low 40's will come from northeast and somewhat north central Canada. They will get cold up there but how far does the trough retrograde for the Oct 8th-15th is the main question.

[tron777]

The MJO is in Phase 1 right now but most of the models put it back in the neutral circle for a while it looks like. I don't see anything to shake up the pattern either for the first 10 days at least of the month.

[Bgoney]

Latest frost potential next 7 days. I’m guessing this is close to normal possibilities

IMG_2375.jpeg

[tron777]

October is a return of the 500mb pattern “as ugly as it gets “ for drought areas and recovery, not just in the OV but Midwest and plains. The GOA lows slamming BC and staying far north through the first half. The ridge won’t be centered over the Great Lakes/Canada but a bit more west thats still a very dry pattern (unless tropical system can intervene). We’ll see cool fronts of course but since Canada remains largely above normal, nothing noteworthy or unusual and short lived

The drought to our north is definitely getting bad. Minneapolis, MN got only 0.06” for the entire month of Sept and Cedar Rapids, Iowa recorded Zero!

[tpweather]

October is a return of the 500mb pattern “as ugly as it gets “ for drought areas and recovery, not just in the OV but Midwest and plains. The GOA lows slamming BC and staying far north through the first half. The ridge won’t be centered over the Great Lakes/Canada but a bit more west thats still a very dry pattern (unless tropical system can intervene). We’ll see cool fronts of course but since Canada remains largely above normal, nothing noteworthy or unusual and short lived

The drought to our north is definitely getting bad. Minneapolis, MN got only 0.06” for the entire month of Sept and Cedar Rapids, Iowa recorded Zero!

What is bad they had drought conditions late last year and very early this season as snowfall was lighter than normal. Then spring and the first half of summer came and they got to much rain and of course back to very little in the way of rainfall. They are still 5 inches above normal for the year and rain did hit at a good time so hopefully the crops were fine.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Another wonderful video by Brian. No doubt he has any cold air later in the month and that is fair. Early next week yes we can get in the low to mid 40's which is not unheard of that time of year. Do we get a better shot before the 15th of the month is the big question and again the tropics as usual have a say in this outlook. He does mentioned the PV that may and head this way late in the month or early November. This is really a typical 1st year La Nina and with a decent cold shot early then a mild period before a really nice cold shot in early to mid December. Will this pan out this season and no ideal but its one that we can look back and see how it happens. Again not everything from the year I am going by which 1983 matches up but several items do so at least we won't be bored after mid-month. 80 for us will be close this Fri-Sun and I am staying in the 77-79 range just because of some clouds that happen around the noon hour or so that gives you that 1-2 hour period where its partly to sometimes mostly cloudy and just enough to hold temps down a degree or two. Really means nothing if its 77 or 81 because going to be beautiful either way.

[tron777]

Watching the 12Z GFS coming in and I think everyone's thoughts for the first half of Rocktober are spot on! After today's rain chance, then we are pretty much on the dry side and seasonal to at times mild side for temps, with little in the way of rainfall expected. Like the last time (and as Bgoney said) we either need another tropical system to bring us rain, or have a change in the pattern over the Pacific to allow for cold fronts to tap into the Gulf instead of NW flow where the Gulf is closed for business. At least this time of year, the heat is done for the season but a lot of 70s are on the way with an occasional 80 degree day thrown in. For lows... mainly nights in the 50s with a few 40s also thrown in. We may even see a day or two in the 60s for highs next week if the cold shot is deep enough behind Sunday's dry frontal passage, but as Tim also said earlier, it's nothing unheard of for the time of year either. I would use this time over the next 2-3 weeks to get things done outside that you need too before late Fall and winter comes knocking. just my 2 cents. Because you know the weather will turn crappy... it always does lol

[tpweather]

Great Post LES!!!

[tron777]

Great Post LES!!!

Thank you Sir! I like it when we're all on the same page (You, Me, and Bgoney) It's like the trifecta!

[tpweather]

Cold front moving through central Indiana at the moment and like we see many times a quick warm up ahead of the front happened in Indy as it reached 80 degrees. The cold front will not bring much in the way of rainfall but it will be a nice period of strong winds of 20-30 mph and some gusts could reach 35 or so . Good thing its a rather short period of strong winds and less the dew points will crash behind the front. Wednesday looks perfect with temp and humidity

[Bgoney]

Fairbanks airport had its first freeze of the season yesterday morning, marking the latest date on record for reaching 32°F. It's not, however, the latest date for dropping below 32°F; that didn't occur until October 5 in 2017.

[tron777]

74 here today which is also my current temp. 75 so far at CVG. There is a broken line of showers and an isolated t-storm with the front. A few downpours for some of you possible this evening then the wind as Tim mentioned for a few hours after that.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 76, DAY 78 and CMH 75 today.

[MVWxObserver]

Too bad so much ground clutter.

[tron777]

Good morning all! CVG picked up 0.14" with the front last night with winds gusting to 28 mph so not too bad all things considered. Now we are back to boring but nice weather for the foreseeable future. Look for dense fog the next couple of mornings being possible as the ground is still very wet. Otherwise cool mornings and delightful afternoons on the way! For today near 70 or so, then in the U70s Thurs, 80-82 Fri - Sunday before another front backs us down into the 60s for a few days early night week with lows in the 40s. A few showers are possible Sun afternoon and evening but moisture looks to be limited with this front.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a tad more rain then I expected last with 0.16 but that was fine. I agree with Les on his forecast except for the highs Fri-Sun which I expect 77-79 though maybe 80 on Sunday ahead of the front. The AC is turned off until next June or so and that is always nice to see. The tropics are trying to figure what to do over the next 10 days and so only the CMC has a decent storm at this point. Even if we get a storm it looks like Florida may be the only place where the storm may hit. With that said we should see more cold fronts start heading our way and expect the NWS long range forecasts over the next few days show this in their extended periods. Looks like first half of October is rather boring but that is the norm most years before the jet starts moving south in the second half of the month and better chances at some weather to keep us awake.

Bgoney was looking at the cold around the world after you mentioned Fairbanks and really not much in the way of an expanded area of cold. Usually when one place mild you can see the opposite somewhere else but really could not find this. Again Mother Nature will balance this out so would not be surprised by the end of the month some really cold air and maybe just maybe directed towards us. To early but once the tropics die down for good then we start to have more fun around here.

[tron777]

I agree Tim... the first half of October at this time, looks like a snooze fest. The last portion of October is when we should begin to see some change towards a more stormier pattern which you'd expect later in the Fall. I think the next 2-3 weeks is well below avg precip with mild to seasonal temps.

[tpweather]

I agree Tim... the first half of October at this time, looks like a snooze fest. The last portion of October is when we should begin to see some change towards a more stormier pattern which you'd expect later in the Fall. I think the next 2-3 weeks is well below avg precip with mild to seasonal temps.

Les glad we got the rain or we would see several days in the 80's over the next 7-10 days. The added vegetation and chances for morning fog and also the mid-day period where enough moisture off the ground has formed some clouds for a few hours will keep temps from getting out of hand. Further west in the central plains they will have several days in the 80's but the low humidity will help them

[tron777]

I agree Tim... the first half of October at this time, looks like a snooze fest. The last portion of October is when we should begin to see some change towards a more stormier pattern which you'd expect later in the Fall. I think the next 2-3 weeks is well below avg precip with mild to seasonal temps.

Les glad we got the rain or we would see several days in the 80's over the next 7-10 days. The added vegetation and chances for morning fog and also the mid-day period where enough moisture off the ground has formed some clouds for a few hours will keep temps from getting out of hand. Further west in the central plains they will have several days in the 80's but the low humidity will help them

I agree Tim. The rain was very much needed or else 85 to 90 would be the result. I think we've got 2 if not 3 days at 80-82 coming up, Fri - Sun. Then a drop back into the 60s early next week. However, we should warm up again into the 70s after that, I won't rule out another 80 either ahead of mid month. Around mid month, there are some signals of a decent trough and some chilly air moving in. But I'm not seeing that run after run yet on the modeling so it's probably a case of delayed, but not denied, so we'll just have to keep an eye on it until things become more clearer.

[Bgoney]

500mb Pattern we’ve been referring to and Qpf anomaly that goes with it.

IMG_2379.jpeg

IMG_2377.jpeg