September 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another nice band headed this way.The key with all these bands is how far north does the steadier heavy rain go before hitting a brick wall. These bands can put down .5-1 inch in a couple of hours and that is rain we need. Yes big question is where Helene finally crosses over the app mountains and we know the actual track of Helene went further east than earlier forecast though models picked up on that yesterday. It does make a difference because it does allow the upper system to drift a little further south than forecast the past two days. Once Helene crosses over the mountains you will have a tug of war for a few hours and at first Helene may win the battle and tug the upper system northward but sooner or later the upper or we can call it upper and mid-level low will win out. Big question the location of the low once all this has happened. No doubt this has gone back and forth a few days and not blaming models at all as once again a rare event. My thoughts are somewhere in northeast Tn or southwest Ky. So yes the remainder of the morning and afternoon and early evening we should continue to see bands of rainfall. At some point that will stop and the upper system takes control and should form a low at the surface. Then we see this low head northeast over the weekend but very slow since it will be away from the faster jet. Saturday looks wet imo for much of the day and would not be surprised to get .5-1.0 inch for many areas just with Saturday. Sunday will see the showers more scattered and even Monday morning maybe an isolated shower before we can finally say good-bye to a system that for us was really needed.

Mother Nature is still amazing in trying to even things out though like in the southern apps not the kind you want to see. Before this week we had a chance to be in the top 10 all time low rainfall and before September is over we could be double the normal rainfall for the month. This short term drought was hard and with all the 90's later in the summer it did some damage. So no this rain won't undo the problems the drought left behind but it is a great start. With the way the late fall and winter are starting to shape up I believe rain/snow will be above normal through the winter. Does not mean a cold and snowy winter and still several weeks before getting involved on that but one of the early signs with maybe a weak La Nina and how other things are setting up is a rather wet 4-6 months ahead imo.

[tpweather]

As of 10am at CVG total rainfall is 0.54 and over the next 2-3 hours that will no doubt double and maybe even triple if the band sets up near CVG

[tron777]

Wonderful post Tim! Rainfall totals as of 10am:

CVG - 0.54"
Boone co mesonet - 0.69"

BG's video from today, it just ended.

[Bgoney]

That band coming in is heavier than what we’ve seen but it is also weakening as it nears the river

[tron777]

CVG gusted to 33 as of the 10am reading.

[Bgoney]

Sporadic gusts in Indian hill, so far, with drizzle continuing

[tron777]

Power Company outage maps:

Owen Electric: https://outage.owenelectric.com/
Duke for OH and KY: https://outagemaps.duke-energy.com/#/cu ... tages/ohky
Duke for IN: https://outagemaps.duke-energy.com/#/current-outages/in

[tpweather]

The winds have no doubt picked up in the last 10 minutes. Love Brian's video and as always at the top of his game and I believe folks on this forum have done a really good job especially since its a rare storm. Again no perfect forecast but with all the moving parts I believe we have done well. After we get through the weekend we can start looking at the first half of October. Of course changes will be occurring but how quickly is somewhat determined by the tropics. The eastern GOM has taken a beating and not sure anything can repeat the same path but the western GOM was barely touched at all so along the Texas border and south we will just need to watch and see if anything develops. Do we see an early frost and something we need to look at or will continue with the above normal temps.

Looks like by the time September is over we should average about 4 degrees above average but that was with some really nice and cool weather at first and then the middle of the month was not so nice and ending the last 3rd of the month about average or so. The middle 10 days was warmer than I expected and the main reason was the ridging north of us was really big time and my guess for the time of year in the top 1p/c. Models and some talented folks on here saw this coming but I just had a hard time in seeing this happen and I was wrong. Good thing is I ignored models this past Sat-Tues concerning rainfall amounts so yes sometimes the models win out and sometimes we get a victory or two as well. Still too early to give a grade on Helene and the leftovers and by Monday we should be able to but so far a passing grade is not a problem. I like to grade forecasts and this is never an ego thing but when I am wrong its such a learning experience and I try to push that forward for another system that may pop up.

[MVWxObserver]

Where my sister resides, Mt. Airy, NC e.g., is under a TOR Watch, Flood Watch and Flood Warning.

Saw a few minutes ago on TWC footage of flooding in Asheville. Reminds me of the flooding from Floyd in Rocky Mount, NC e.g.

[tpweather]

Brian mentioned the I-40 stretch from Knoxville to Asheville and I probably drove that at least 50 times during the 4 years I lived there part time. He is correct never a fun stretch to drive even when its dry. My guess some parts of that area has been shut down at times. Even I-26 from Asheville- Greenville is not fun as they have been working on expanding that part of the expressway for years. I lived probably 5-7 miles south of downtown Greenville and out of the hills and mountains for the most part. My guess sure some flooding in that area but north of Greenville my guess its not pretty all the way to Asheville.

[Bgoney]

Upper low starting to move eastward, should really start tugging on Helene

IMG_2339.gif

[tron777]

CVG gusted to 38 now as of 11am. 0.63" for rain.

[BCW]

Will the low tugging on remnants help or hurt the wind?

[MVWxObserver]

Brian mentioned the I-40 stretch from Knoxville to Asheville and I probably drove that at least 50 times during the 4 years I lived there part time. He is correct never a fun stretch to drive even when its dry. My guess some parts of that area has been shut down at times. Even I-26 from Asheville- Greenville is not fun as they have been working on expanding that part of the expressway for years. I lived probably 5-7 miles south of downtown Greenville and out of the hills and mountains for the most part. My guess sure some flooding in that area but north of Greenville my guess its not pretty all the way to Asheville.

Hi Tim,

Those years my folks and I resided in NC I remember taking I-40 at times and some stretch near Maggie Valley, or Canton / Clyde there was a rockslide and later massive bolts were installed along the face of the area to help prevent future slides.

[tpweather]

Brian mentioned the I-40 stretch from Knoxville to Asheville and I probably drove that at least 50 times during the 4 years I lived there part time. He is correct never a fun stretch to drive even when its dry. My guess some parts of that area has been shut down at times. Even I-26 from Asheville- Greenville is not fun as they have been working on expanding that part of the expressway for years. I lived probably 5-7 miles south of downtown Greenville and out of the hills and mountains for the most part. My guess sure some flooding in that area but north of Greenville my guess its not pretty all the way to Asheville.

Hi Tim,

Those years my folks and I resided in NC I remember taking I-40 at times and some stretch near Maggie Valley, or Canton / Clyde there was a rockslide and later massive bolts were installed along the face of the area to help prevent future slides.

Hey Eric and you are correct. I hope you and your family are doing well. I drove a U-Haul several times on that stretch but with full loads I was going faster than driving my car though my wife was not thrilled as she was in the car well behind me. The only time that was really bad was fog early in the morning when I would be driving from Greenville back home. At some snow but it was rare. The drive to Wisconsin is about 3 hours longer but once I past Indy the ride is so relaxed and yes I go up I-39 because no way in heck to I drive through Chicago.

[tron777]

Will the low tugging on remnants help or hurt the wind?

It will impact the track of Helene which will determine where the strong winds go. The strongest winds will be north and east of where the center tracks. If the center tracks up thru SE KY > Central KY > back across Western KY, something like that, then we should be in a good spot for those winds. Only expecting a few hours for the strongest winds by the way. This won't be like Ike where we had those terrible winds for 12-16 hours. 50-60 mph winds for like 2 or 3 hours or something is all that is expected. Sometime in that 1-6pm range is when they should occur. Outside of that time period, 20-40 mph gusts should be common.

[tpweather]

Just to show you the difference in these waves of rainfall. Cvg and Lexington have been getting the same waves so far but at 11am Cvg stand at .70 and Lex at 1.20. Decided to check Dayton as well and they stand at .50. So the waves only go so far north before they weaken. Still have a few more waves into the early evening and the strongest one may be in the early afternoon. Helene is still moving north but later today she will no doubt start losing the war with the upper system. The dreaded dry slot and my guess we are going to be okay but southeast of us it could be close and again no sun as that will ramp up winds quickly. Still not sure we get much past 50 mph gusts and even if we do its a short window of the higher winds.

[tron777]

Latest HRRR has that first band weakening as it moves in as Bgoney mentioned a little while ago. Then, a couple more heavy bands yet to come as Tim was mentioning. Per that model, the timing for CVG Land looks to be around 2-3pm for the first one and around 4 or 5pm for the second one. Things should begin to dry out this evening as the center pinwheels back to the SW over Western KY. Then as the upper low takes over tonight, we'll get back into the light rain scenario with lighter winds for tomorrow, although still breezy. A few more showers on Sunday too as the low finally gets on the move and by Monday, a leftover shower possible as the system finally moves away. Then it's on to October lol

[tron777]

As of 10:30am from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

Not too many updates from previous forecast as the remnants of Helene
are still on track to move through the region this afternoon.

Much of our area is gusting to 30 knots or so this morning (with
the exception of our northeastern sites that are somewhat
removed from the tightest pressure gradient at the moment).
Lexington, KY to our south is now gusting well into advisory
criteria, at 47kts. We anticipate gusts to continue to increase
as we head into the late morning/ afternoon hours.

Rain has overspread the entire CWA, with the highest
reflectivity along the Ohio River. Gauges along the river are
reporting anywhere from 0.5 inch to 0.75 inch as of 10 AM this
morning. The strongest precipitation should arrive this
afternoon from 2PM to 6PM in conjunction with the strongest
winds. Total precipitation accum should still be between 1-3
inches with the highest totals near the Tri-State.

[tron777]

12pm total at CVG is now at 0.65"

[Sargent51]

Bradford's are always the first to go...but what happens to the rest of it when the winds REALLY pick up?

Image.jpg

[dce]

CB is reporting 43 mph sustained winds at the Lexington airport with gusts over 60.

[tron777]

CVG reported sustained winds of 26 gusting to 43 as of 12pm.

[tpweather]

No doubt the strongest winds of they day going on. Rainfall picked up as well.

[tron777]

CVG just gusted to 47 now. Rainfall up to 0.67" Boone Co mesonet up to 0.81" with a peak gust of 36.