Solar Activity

All weather related things can be found here! From snow storms to severe weather including the best model analysis and long range forecasting around!
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4296
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: Solar Activity

Post by Bgoney »

IMG_1029.jpeg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22690
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Solar Activity

Post by tron777 »

I am surprised no one has posted about this yet so I will. :lol: Check this out from spaceweather.com:
ARE WE ABOUT TO EXPERIENCE A NEW CARRINGTON EVENT? No. AR3664 is indeed a 'Carrington-class' sunspot, but the CMEs it hurled toward Earth over the past few days are not as potent as the monster CME of Sept. 1, 1859. NOAA says we might experience a severe geomagnetic storm when the CMEs arrive this weekend. If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, 'severe' would be category 4. The Carrington Event was category 5 or greater. So this is no Carrington Event. Even so, category 4 is pretty intense--if it happens. Stay tuned for some great auroras! Aurora alerts: SMS Text
Basically, we have a good chance to see some Auroras this weekend if we can get clear skies and also if you're away from the city lights. Tonight maybe questionable for viewing as we should start out clear but get increasing clouds ahead of tomorrow's cold front. Sat. night looks much better for viewing as we should have clear skies all night long. Please post a pic if any of you do happen to witness the Aurora's. I have too many lights around me unfortunately.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Sawdoggie
Rain Shower
Posts: 39
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:22 am
Location: Madeira/Ripley, OH

Re: Solar Activity

Post by Sawdoggie »

Friday night the sky turned awesome around 10 pm. Naked eye aurora was completely overhead and even south. While not as bright as the pictures, there were a few pulses that lightened the landscape considerably. Saturday night didn’t yield much but a faint aurora that appeared sporadically on the horizon. The ISS did fly across the sky which is always cool!
IMG_4362.jpeg
IMG_4354.jpeg
IMG_4358.jpeg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Christian
Madeira by week, Ripley, OH by weekend
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KOHRIPLE5
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22690
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Solar Activity

Post by tron777 »

Gorgeous pics, Christian! Thank you sir for sharing those with us. Truly spectacular! :)
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
Pepper
Rain Shower
Posts: 44
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:53 pm

Re: Solar Activity

Post by Pepper »

I also captured the lights it was absolutely the neatest thing ever
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Located in Franklin County, Indiana
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22690
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Solar Activity

Post by tron777 »

Awesome pics, Pepper! Thanks for sharing those with us! :) Love those purples!!!
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4296
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: Solar Activity

Post by Bgoney »

The average number of sunspots reached 215.5 in August, according to the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center at the Royal Observatory in Belgium. It’s the highest number since Sept.-Dec. 2001, according to SpaceWeather.com. July's total was 196.5. Last month, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center issued a preliminary statement that solar activity is at its highest since March 2001.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22690
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Solar Activity

Post by tron777 »

Solar Cycle 25 has out performed expectations for sure and it's a big reason why the Northern Lights have been seen much further to the south then usual. No signs of it slowing down anytime soon and in fact, I think it is still intensifying due to the high amount of cosmic rays hitting the Earth.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
winterstormjoe
EF1 Tornado
Posts: 401
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:13 am
Location: Westwood/Cheviot

Re: Solar Activity

Post by winterstormjoe »

Going back as far as 2006 Space weather's site we had 268 spotless days in 2008 and 281 spotless days 2019. From what I read we were going into a minimum back in the early 2000's but not as weak as the Dalton Min of late 1700's/early 1800's or the Maunder Min of the 1600's. According to what I read another Grand Min is coming within the next 50 years!
winterstormjoe
EF1 Tornado
Posts: 401
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:13 am
Location: Westwood/Cheviot

Re: Solar Activity

Post by winterstormjoe »

Current as of today...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4296
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: Solar Activity

Post by Bgoney »

This could cause a few problems




IMG_2388.jpeg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22690
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Solar Activity

Post by tron777 »

Solar Cycle 25 has been off the charts for sun spot activity and geomagnetic storms! No model or scientist predicted this at all.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4296
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: Solar Activity

Post by Bgoney »

tron777 wrote: Thu Oct 03, 2024 5:34 pm Solar Cycle 25 has been off the charts for sun spot activity and geomagnetic storms! No model or scientist predicted this at all.
It’s still going crazy, another CME today and activity is expected to continue as this particular active area rotates more directly to earth…. Uh oh.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22690
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Solar Activity

Post by tron777 »

Bgoney wrote: Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:50 am
tron777 wrote: Thu Oct 03, 2024 5:34 pm Solar Cycle 25 has been off the charts for sun spot activity and geomagnetic storms! No model or scientist predicted this at all.
It’s still going crazy, another CME today and activity is expected to continue as this particular active area rotates more directly to earth…. Uh oh.
I'm wondering if that will be bad news for winter when combined with a very westerly QBO? At least it's a Nina instead of a Nino with that combination.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4296
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: Solar Activity

Post by Bgoney »

tron777 wrote: Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:56 am
Bgoney wrote: Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:50 am
tron777 wrote: Thu Oct 03, 2024 5:34 pm Solar Cycle 25 has been off the charts for sun spot activity and geomagnetic storms! No model or scientist predicted this at all.
It’s still going crazy, another CME today and activity is expected to continue as this particular active area rotates more directly to earth…. Uh oh.
I'm wondering if that will be bad news for winter when combined with a very westerly QBO? At least it's a Nina instead of a Nino with that combination.
Yea I’m sure they’ll be some speculation on this in the coming weeks/months . Seems like in the past what looked like things going in our favor were then supposedly ruined by sun activity
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
tpweather
Hurricane
Posts: 6131
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Location: Edgewood

Re: Solar Activity

Post by tpweather »

Love this topic but I am so lost and not sure how this helps/hurts when it comes to actual temperature. I should study this more this winter but at this point you guys are the experts on this subject and hopefully I can grasp it somewhat before the winter is over.
Post Reply