August 2021 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

Looks like there were actually a couple of upper 40s this morning over in eastern Ohio (Cambridge and Ravenna)!

[tron777]

Looks like there were actually a couple of upper 40s this morning over in eastern Ohio (Cambridge and Ravenna)!

Very impressive for August especially!

[cloudy72]

So the 12z NAM fits into our forecast here perfectly. Has maybe a few hundredths of an inch on Wednesday for lucky souls, however the unusual thing that will happen is any cell will move from SE to NW due to the upper low influence.

[tron777]

So the 12z NAM fits into our forecast here perfectly. Has maybe a few hundredths of an inch on Wednesday for lucky souls, however the unusual thing that will happen is any cell will move from SE to NW due to the upper low influence.

It's the only shot of rain for this week. MY Dome is going to be tough to break per the norm. I think I am on Day 17 now without measurable rain.

[cloudy72]

Hopefully the GFS signals of more action next week come to fruition.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and another beautiful day though a few clouds which happens quite often in the summer time only to be replaced with sun after 2pm or so. Chances of rain are slim and only a few folks will get lucky the remainder of the week. Concerning drought and folks get worked up over nothing because even no rain for 2 months can cause short term droughts but that is normal for nature especially in August. Normal rainfall is probably around 3.25 inches but there are many years where that total is below 1 inch and some years with a decent tropical system or two we get over 5 inches. We have been well above normal in terms of rainfall for several years and probably the only bad thing is we have much more in the way of vegetation to water because of all the growth. Growing up the only folks really worried about droughts were the farmers and they understood how to deal with it better than most folks. No worries back then of lawn care because few folks had that kind of money to spend so the weeds made it look greener.

[Bgoney]

We have yet another current winter like patter occurrence going on . Western ridge is to far east resulting in troughing favoring the coast and low pressure skirting up the mid Atlantic and taking almost all the moisture with it and away from the OV.

[tron777]

We have yet another current winter like patter occurrence going on . Western ridge is to far east resulting in troughing favoring the coast and low pressure skirting up the mid Atlantic and taking almost all the moisture with it and away from the OV.

A classic winter time cold and dry pattern indeed. In August, I don't mind it one bit, even though I could use some rain.

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and another beautiful day though a few clouds which happens quite often in the summer time only to be replaced with sun after 2pm or so. Chances of rain are slim and only a few folks will get lucky the remainder of the week. Concerning drought and folks get worked up over nothing because even no rain for 2 months can cause short term droughts but that is normal for nature especially in August. Normal rainfall is probably around 3.25 inches but there are many years where that total is below 1 inch and some years with a decent tropical system or two we get over 5 inches. We have been well above normal in terms of rainfall for several years and probably the only bad thing is we have much more in the way of vegetation to water because of all the growth. Growing up the only folks really worried about droughts were the farmers and they understood how to deal with it better than most folks. No worries back then of lawn care because few folks had that kind of money to spend so the weeds made it look greener.

BG last week used the term flash drought. That's exactly right. We get short term droughts around here virtually every summer. At least for My Dome. The rain always comes back typically in the Fall. It can come earlier if any tropical systems can get involved. Gonna be a week to 10 days before we are too interested in the ATL Basin anyway.

[tron777]

Hopefully the GFS signals of more action next week come to fruition.

More troughs and cold fronts for sure. Same ole pattern continuing... GFS has been wetter then the Euro for sure over the next 10 days. Hard for me to get excited with rain chances until we see the moisture return from the Gulf next week.

[tron777]

Dew is now down to 49 at CVG and it's 8/3! I am impressed by this.

[tpweather]

Dew is now down to 49 at CVG and it's 8/3! I am impressed by this.

Must be pretty cold up above with the clouds staying around this long. More like an early September day. Can we have this every summer day.

[tron777]

Dew is now down to 49 at CVG and it's 8/3! I am impressed by this.

Must be pretty cold up above with the clouds staying around this long. More like an early September day. Can we have this every summer day.

Coldest 500 MB temps are right over us at -15C per current SPC meso analysis. 850s are only +12.5C right now.

[tron777]

82 here and at CVG today. One more nice night in the 50s to L60s before we slowly warm up and the humidity also returns esp by Fri and the weekend. Rain chances again look low with the upper low passing by Wed / Thurs. Highest chances East, lowest West. Good luck. Then we get warm with the U80s to L90s coming late this weekend into early next week. T-storm chances also return by about Tues and Wed of next week in scattered fashion. That's the call.

Long Term, I think we will cool down again with another cold front and t-storm / strong t-storm chance in the next week to ten days. Then we cool off, warm up and do it again. Same ole pattern all summer long, just with less rain right now basically.

[tron777]

Just a little tidbit for winter lovers out there. The new August QBO reading is out. Double digit negatives now for the QBO for June at 30mb.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... .u30.index

QBO for May 2021: 0.31 July: -6.93 August: -13.17

It is crashing folks! Oddly, 95-96' had a similar flip...just a bit later. 09-10 and 14-15 also have a QBO that flipped almost exactly at the same time as this summer's. Those were good winters. However this winter a second year Nina is becoming very likely but will it be in the drivers seat? Chances are it'll be ENSO COLD Neutral or a Weak Nina at best. Typically, second year Nina's are not as strong as the first year. It is only August, but already seeing some interesting signals emerge.

ssta.daily.current.png

You can see the La Nina developing, but a warm North Pacific certainly grabs my eye as well as the warmth around Greenland in the North Atlantic. A by-product of all the ridging this summer / blocking? We shall see if it can continue and what impacts the developing second year cool ENSO event may have. Watch the crashing QBO as well. When does it bottom out and begin to rise again?

[MVWxObserver]

Some brown areas in my front, side, and back yardage along with some green in other portions, like other AV posters.

Looking forward to next week as prayerfully a bit more active week of scattered convection sets up.

Currently 73 here in Greenville and progged for around 57 Wed morning.

[tron777]

59 here this morning. Third morning in a row where I have been in the 50s. Can't remember the last time I have said that in August. The humidity and warmth will be increasing after today so good luck. Rain chances also are the highest for today but the best chance will be east of I-71 and SE closer to the upper low itself.

[tpweather]

Just a little tidbit for winter lovers out there. The new August QBO reading is out. Double digit negatives now for the QBO for June at 30mb.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... .u30.index

QBO for May 2021: 0.31 July: -6.93 August: -13.17

It is crashing folks! Oddly, 95-96' had a similar flip...just a bit later. 09-10 and 14-15 also have a QBO that flipped almost exactly at the same time as this summer's. Those were good winters. However this winter a second year Nina is becoming very likely but will it be in the drivers seat? Chances are it'll be ENSO COLD Neutral or a Weak Nina at best. Typically, second year Nina's are not as strong as the first year. It is only August, but already seeing some interesting signals emerge.



ssta.daily.current.png



You can see the La Nina developing, but a warm North Pacific certainly grabs my eye as well as the warmth around Greenland in the North Atlantic. A by-product of all the ridging this summer / blocking? We shall see if it can continue and what impacts the developing second year cool ENSO event may have. Watch the crashing QBO as well. When does it bottom out and begin to rise again?

Great Post Les and when you look at the summer of 95 the pacific northwest was hot and very similar to this year. That is my current season to follow for the winter and sure there are many other factors but that is one that seems very similar at this point in time.

[tron777]

That was an awfully good winter for the East Coast and OV Tim. 95-96 still ranks in the top 5 for snowfall at CVG and Jan of 96 was great the first week of the month with the big Blizz that got everyone in the Eastern US. 27" for the month total. Had a nice ice storm in Feb of 96 and 8.4" of snow in March of 96. I'd take it again.

[cloudy72]

Down to 56 in my hood this morning.

[tron777]

Not really seeing a lot of rain until we get into the second week of the month. Like after the 10th. GFS has been showing this idea for a few runs now, including right now. Until then, slow building warmth and humidity will be the rule, with only spotty rain chances expected.

[tron777]

12Z Euro agrees... gets more active post 8/10.

[tron777]

83 here today. Currently 79 with cloudy skies and nice NE breeze. A lot out there will disagree with me but to me, this is summer.

[MVWxObserver]

That was an awfully good winter for the East Coast and OV Tim. 95-96 still ranks in the top 5 for snowfall at CVG and Jan of 96 was great the first week of the month with the big Blizz that got everyone in the Eastern US. 27" for the month total. Had a nice ice storm in Feb of 96 and 8.4" of snow in March of 96. I'd take it again.

I was a snowed-in maintenance / custodian 2nd shift employee at the Roanoke Rapids, NC Sleep Inn beside I-95 during the January 1996 Blizzard!! At the peak of the storm the whole front lobby and toward the continental breakfast area was absolutely packed wall to wall!! A "sister" hotel Hampton Inn up the lane from the Sleep Inn, their GM has a nephew who is a native of Michigan and he shuttled employees to and from that hotel and the Hampton from work to home and vice versa. I got a ride to my house via him and then returned to the Sleep Inn a couple days later to retrieve my car at the parking lot.

The employees and guests were like one big happy family for a few days there at those hotels!

[MVWxObserver]

What a stellar afternoon it was for a Redlegs vs Twinkies Business Day Special matinee!

Got bumpy in the 8th via relievers Brad Brach and newbie Luis Cessa, but great to see Michael Lorenzen back as he got it done in the 9th for a 1-1 split vs Minnesota!

Currently 81 here in G'ville and progged for around 58 Thurs morning.