June 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

[tron777]

That secondary front is moving into the region now so once it passes, dews will begin to drop quickly. Dews in the 50s aren't too far away.

[Bgoney]

NOAA in Fairbanks issued several severe thunderstorm warnings yesterday. It’s usually rare to have 1 or two issued all summer for them

[tron777]

NOAA in Fairbanks issued several severe thunderstorm warnings yesterday. It’s usually rare to have 1 or two issued all summer for them

I read about that. If I recall, they had some wind damage and some hail also near Fairbanks. Also yesterday afternoon in Livonia, MI they had an EF1 tornado that did a lot of damage. There was no warning issued by NWS Detroit. I don't even think Detroit was outlooked by the SPC either for severe wx, just Ohio. This storm literally developed out of nowhere! A tree fell thru a house and killed a 2 year old.

[Trevor]

I’ve been advertising high heat on my page for a few days now and the GFS and Euro are really falling in line. With no substantial rain between now and then we may be torching pretty good!

[tron777]

I think the mid 90s are a bit too high until we dry out but the low 90s... You Betcha! Ugh... my least favorite time of year is almost here.

[tron777]

82 here today. Soak up those 70s folks tomorrow thru Tues of next week. Those pesky 90s maybe in our future in about 10 days from now, give or take.

[MVWxObserver]

I got a beginner's luck win this afternoon of a score of 10 pts playing some bocce ball with my Dad and a friend of ours!

Currently 78 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG, DAY and CMH all got to 82 today.

[tpweather]

I think the mid 90s are a bit too high until we dry out but the low 90s... You Betcha! Ugh... my least favorite time of year is almost here.

I agree Les we need to dry out some to get the mid-90's but can we see a few days of low 90's and sure probably by Father's day and a few days afterwards.

[tron777]

I think the mid 90s are a bit too high until we dry out but the low 90s... You Betcha! Ugh... my least favorite time of year is almost here.

I agree Les we need to dry out some to get the mid-90's but can we see a few days of low 90's and sure probably by Father's day and a few days afterwards.

Good morning Tim! (And everyone else too lol) I think our 1st 90 is coming by next weekend as you mentioned. Watch us get 89'ed on Sat and get to 90 or 91 on Father's Day.

[tron777]

For now though... 58 degrees IMBY this morning and how refreshing with regards to the dry air mass! Enjoy it all! A slight chance at a shower on Sat and Sun (20-30% coverage) so no need to cancel any outdoor plans. Then bring on that heat! We shall have to wait and see if the GFS is right with some light rain Tues / Wed of next week with a low passing thru the area, or the Euro with dry conditions and the 80s as the warmer pattern begins to take shape.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and a beautiful day in store. Your forecast looks good and agree this weekend don't cancel any plans and it looks like the best shot of rain is to the southwest. Sure we can pick up a shower but my guess most of the weekend dry though it may be cloudy at times. Like you mentioned what happens early next week and many times when we see a push of warmer and moist air over top a somewhat cooler surface this can promote a period of rain. Then late next week the heat will try an push her way in here and no doubt it will get warmer but how warm is still as they say up in the air. Where does the ridging finally set up shop will be important and if we can just stay of the edge of the heat dome much better shot at some storms to move around the ridge. It seems when we see this kind of pattern set up you get that first surge of heat and the dew points are not out of control so you get a quick 90 degree day. Then the humidity rolls in and temps sort of level off in the upper 80's to near 90. The longer this ridge is in control the chances of getting several days in the 90's go up. Of course the tropics are still a problem as they tend to mess with the models and will watch that next week as well. Enjoy the weekend

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! I agree with your post 100%. Today is absolutely a perfect day esp. in June. It's just a shame that I can't enjoy it until after work. Lot of model disagreement for next week. Even in the extended as the EPS is more aggressive with the heat versus the "cooler" GEFS. All we can do is watch and wait at this point. We are on the same page though for our 1st 90 probably coming around Father's Day. Hopefully, when the heat comes, we can get into the ridge rider pattern instead of remaining dry. If we remain dry and hot, it won't take long for drought conditions to develop. If we can remain on the edge of the heat ridge, then we should make it thru just fine (provided we don't get damaging winds with those MCS complexes of course. Also.... still wondering if the tropics throw a Gulf system into the mix as well. That could spell some heat for us unless we're on the edge. Then, some of that tropical moisture could get funneled up our way which is always a nice bonus to keep things green.

[tron777]

70 as of 10am at CVG with a dew of 46! It doesn't get any better this time of year. Cannot wait until the workday is over so I can soak it up myself.

[winterstormjoe]

Good morning Tim! I agree with your post 100%. Today is absolutely a perfect day esp. in June. It's just a shame that I can't enjoy it until after work. Lot of model disagreement for next week. Even in the extended as the EPS is more aggressive with the heat versus the "cooler" GEFS. All we can do is watch and wait at this point. We are on the same page though for our 1st 90 probably coming around Father's Day. Hopefully, when the heat comes, we can get into the ridge rider pattern instead of remaining dry. If we remain dry and hot, it won't take long for drought conditions to develop. If we can remain on the edge of the heat ridge, then we should make it thru just fine (provided we don't get damaging winds with those MCS complexes of course. Also.... still wondering if the tropics throw a Gulf system into the mix as well. That could spell some heat for us unless we're on the edge. Then, some of that tropical moisture could get funneled up our way which is always a nice bonus to keep things green.

Probably going to ignore the 06z GFS as it wants to knock down the heat dome towards the end of the run with increasing chances of those MCS's. Hopefully it's a beginning of a trend, but we'll have to wait and see?

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! I agree with your post 100%. Today is absolutely a perfect day esp. in June. It's just a shame that I can't enjoy it until after work. Lot of model disagreement for next week. Even in the extended as the EPS is more aggressive with the heat versus the "cooler" GEFS. All we can do is watch and wait at this point. We are on the same page though for our 1st 90 probably coming around Father's Day. Hopefully, when the heat comes, we can get into the ridge rider pattern instead of remaining dry. If we remain dry and hot, it won't take long for drought conditions to develop. If we can remain on the edge of the heat ridge, then we should make it thru just fine (provided we don't get damaging winds with those MCS complexes of course. Also.... still wondering if the tropics throw a Gulf system into the mix as well. That could spell some heat for us unless we're on the edge. Then, some of that tropical moisture could get funneled up our way which is always a nice bonus to keep things green.

Probably going to ignore the 06z GFS as it wants to knock down the heat dome towards the end of the run with increasing chances of those MCS's. Hopefully it's a beginning of a trend, but we'll have to wait and see?

I agree Joe... we need a lot more then a 6Z GFS run to make it believable.

[tpweather]

Les and Joe. I believe the tropical activity near the gulf will have the models back and forth. The NWS shows no tropical activity for the next 7 days but my guess that means a storm has not formed but still can get plenty of rainfall. Southern Florida which can use the rain and this could end up perfect for them with decent amounts of rain without the strong winds.

Concerning the near term and many times when you get these nice shots of cool air in the summer they warm back up very quickly because the air is dry but this is not case with the current set up. Getting the big low over eastern Canada to sort of stall like we see quite often in the winter will throw spokes of cool air into the eastern say 1/3 of the country. Sooner of later that will move on and then the warm to hot weather will make it in here but for the next several days enjoy the lovely temps and though it won't be sunny all the time rainfall over the weekend looks light at best and many folks will not see a drop because the dry air is just going to zap the moisture heading this way from the west.

[tpweather]

Heat Advisory for southeast Florida. Though they don't get a lot of them because temps are usually not rising much above 90 degrees because of the high humidity it does happen especially if the tropics are starting to build up and you get a little ridging in that part of the world. Seems like Mother Nature is trying to guide us in the direction of some tropical activity in the next week or so and see if models start picking up on that in the next few days.

[tron777]

The 12Z GFS is trying to get us a bit more active late in its run. As usual, we shall see!

[tron777]

78 here currently which is also my high for the day. CVG topped out at 80. Look for 30% coverage for rain tomorrow and Sunday. Again, nothing to cancel your plans over but a few showers could impact a few locations.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 80, DAY 79 and CMH 77 today.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Soak up these temps! 54 this morning IMBY, currently 58 at CVG. An MCS will slide by to our SW today and with dry air in place, we may get clipped by a shower this afternoon but otherwise not a big deal. Highs will warm into the mid 70s today with some clouds this afternoon. A small shower chance tomorrow morning but not a big deal with temps in the upper 70s! On Monday, one last trough moves thru and highs we stay in the 60s for some of you with cloudy skies, low 70s possible in NKY. A small shower chance possible. Then, the sun comes out and the temps come up. The 70s Tues, low to mid 80s Wed, upper 80s Thurs and our 1st 90 may come on Friday now ahead of a weak cold front that washes out over the area. Another small shower / t-storm chance. Then we bake into the low 90s for Father's Day Weekend. Rainfall over the next 7 days will be sparse unfortunately.

[tron777]

Happy Birthday to Browneyedgirl!!! Hope you have a wonderful day Lisa! Enjoy the nice temps!

[tpweather]

Happy Birthday Lisa. Hope its a wonderful day and love your posts because of the passion for the weather