June 2024 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

CVG, DAY and CMH all got to 87 today.

[tron777]

The Dome held strong today. We'll try again tomorrow.

[Bgoney]

Shutout here. Those southern plains thunderstorm complexes are just a different breed from anything we see in 90% of our thunderstorms. It’s amazing how they regenerate like clockwork from boundaries created the day before. They’re normal complexes would be considered a severe derecho in our hood

[tron777]

Good morning all! Since we aren't getting any morning convection, the chance for a strong to severe storm goes up for this afternoon and evening. SPC has us in a marginal risk from the River northbound. It is a low end risk but a few storms could certainly go severe ahead of the cold front. Radar shows an area of t-storms from Chicago to the west of St Louis then down into the S Plains as Bgoney was just mentioning. OK and TX sure have been getting rocked over the last month and change. Incredible rainfall amounts, wind, monster sized hail, tornadoes, etc. Anyway for us, we shall see what happens once the front gets closer later on today. This maybe it for a bit as for as significant rain chances go so hopefully everyone can cash in!

The chances with the upper low this weekend on into early next week aren't that great so todays chance is probably it until 6/12 or 6/13 when we get our next cold front. Good luck to all and my your domes spring a leak!

[Bgoney]

Good morning all! Since we aren't getting any morning convection, the chance for a strong to severe storm goes up for this afternoon and evening. SPC has us in a marginal risk from the River northbound. It is a low end risk but a few storms could certainly go severe ahead of the cold front. Radar shows an area of t-storms from Chicago to the west of St Louis then down into the S Plains as Bgoney was just mentioning. OK and TX sure have been getting rocked over the last month and change. Incredible rainfall amounts, wind, monster sized hail, tornadoes, etc. Anyway for us, we shall see what happens once the front gets closer later on today. This maybe it for a bit as for as significant rain chances go so hopefully everyone can cash in!

The chances with the upper low this weekend on into early next week aren't that great so todays chance is probably it until 6/12 or 6/13 when we get our next cold front. Good luck to all and my your domes spring a leak!

HIRES models continue to show the hit and miss(haves and have nots) nature of today’s activity. Sooo, yes, luck is needed.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Since we aren't getting any morning convection, the chance for a strong to severe storm goes up for this afternoon and evening. SPC has us in a marginal risk from the River northbound. It is a low end risk but a few storms could certainly go severe ahead of the cold front. Radar shows an area of t-storms from Chicago to the west of St Louis then down into the S Plains as Bgoney was just mentioning. OK and TX sure have been getting rocked over the last month and change. Incredible rainfall amounts, wind, monster sized hail, tornadoes, etc. Anyway for us, we shall see what happens once the front gets closer later on today. This maybe it for a bit as for as significant rain chances go so hopefully everyone can cash in!

The chances with the upper low this weekend on into early next week aren't that great so todays chance is probably it until 6/12 or 6/13 when we get our next cold front. Good luck to all and my your domes spring a leak!

HIRES models continue to show the hit and miss(haves and have nots) nature of today’s activity. Sooo, yes, luck is needed.

It's a shame we can't get any wind shear until the front is right on top of us. That is a big reason why the coverage will be scattered.

[Bgoney]

At least some models are showing two periods of higher chance for isolated showers, one early/mid afternoon and the other with the cold front activity in the evening

[tpweather]

Good Morning and Mother Nature threw a shutout in my place. Expect a better shot of more widespread showers and thundershowers later today but how far south will this extend has the main piece of energy will be moving away from the area. Could use the rain and yes a few folks got hit yesterday but more like a mid-summer kind of day as the sun set the storms stopped.

Les has everything covered for the extended and upper lows this time of year can bring decent rains but being in the correct area is key as they tend to almost stop and rain themself out. Starting Friday though some nice mid-June weather temp wise and this gives us about a week before a ridge sets up over the east. Will this be one that decides to spend time with us or just a quick visit.

[tron777]

Good Morning and Mother Nature threw a shutout in my place. Expect a better shot of more widespread showers and thundershowers later today but how far south will this extend has the main piece of energy will be moving away from the area. Could use the rain and yes a few folks got hit yesterday but more like a mid-summer kind of day as the sun set the storms stopped.

Les has everything covered for the extended and upper lows this time of year can bring decent rains but being in the correct area is key as they tend to almost stop and rain themself out. Starting Friday though some nice mid-June weather temp wise and this gives us about a week before a ridge sets up over the east. Will this be one that decides to spend time with us or just a quick visit.

Good morning Tim! It'll be interesting to see how things evolve in the extended range once we're done with the cool spell. Hopefully, we'll get into the ridge rider pattern that Trev continues to talk about. That is the best case scenario for us. However, the tropics are trying to spin something up in the Gulf at the same time and you know how that usually goes. Poor model performance and lots of chaos!

[Trevor]

Shutout here. Those southern plains thunderstorm complexes are just a different breed from anything we see in 90% of our thunderstorms. It’s amazing how they regenerate like clockwork from boundaries created the day before. They’re normal complexes would be considered a severe derecho in our hood

That’s what 4000+ CAPE will do for ya! Agreed it’s wild how intense their storms get.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. I agree 100p/c and not only the tropics getting involved near Cuba but even out in the Atlantic we are seeing some signs as well. The oceans are very warm as we know so could this be a early active season like we saw in 2005. Usually you get a few systems in first half of June but then in a normal year we tend to slow down until August. This year may be different. Have not turned on the A/C except to make sure its working and was almost forced yesterday as it got quite toasty but will wait to late next week and then it seems once you turn it on it stays on until September

[tron777]

Good Morning Les. I agree 100p/c and not only the tropics getting involved near Cuba but even out in the Atlantic we are seeing some signs as well. The oceans are very warm as we know so could this be a early active season like we saw in 2005. Usually you get a few systems in first half of June but then in a normal year we tend to slow down until August. This year may be different. Have not turned on the A/C except to make sure its working and was almost forced yesterday as it got quite toasty but will wait to late next week and then it seems once you turn it on it stays on until September

Hopefully this link works: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... plit&time=

It should be showing a map of the Saharan Dust Layer (SAL). A little early of course for the Cape Verde season, but the Caribbean has cleared out so what the GFS keeps showing is not totally far fetched IMO.

If the above link doesn't work, then use this one: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/

[tpweather]

I agree Les a little early for the Cape Verde season but I wonder if this will follow the steps of the monsoon season in India and surrounding areas since it started earlier than normal. I have no ideal if any connection but at least food for thought.

[tron777]

I agree Les a little early for the Cape Verde season but I wonder if this will follow the steps of the monsoon season in India and surrounding areas since it started earlier than normal. I have no ideal if any connection but at least food for thought.

Not sure either Tim but it's certainly possible. Definitely something worth keeping an eye on since things that occur on the other side of the world, can certainly have an impact down the road with regards to our future weather patterns. It's aways good to think outside the box, and you always seem to have a knack for doing that very thing.

[tron777]

In the short term, per the visible satellite pic, we should see some sun breaks poking thru the clouds here shortly. All we can do is watch and wait to see how things develop off to our SW.

[tpweather]

Fun to see some of the extended models and ones 1-3 months out and the one item I noticed is the models expect the southeast 1/4 of the country to be wet. My guess is they expect a big time tropical season with some storms at least providing rain even if they don't become a named storm. Southern Florida could use the rain and really besides just a few places with drought conditions and parts of the pacific northwest but that should change over the next few months an then in the southwest especially New Mexico and west Texas which really missed out this past winter on precip. The only other area is western Kansas which surprised me as the plains have been hit quite often and will need to look at that area and see if they just have been unlucky this spring.

[tron777]

Radar shows a nice little bow echo over East Central ILL. That will of course miss our area. Our weather will be coming from the SW. At this time, radar isn't all that impressive. We are seeing a little sun now which should help prime the atmosphere for later on. Again, due to the lack of wind shear, things shouldn't get too out of hand. SPC updated about an hour ago. No change, still a low end severe risk for strong winds.

[tpweather]

Radar shows a nice little bow echo over East Central ILL. That will of course miss our area. Our weather will be coming from the SW. At this time, radar isn't all that impressive. We are seeing a little sun now which should help prime the atmosphere for later on. Again, due to the lack of wind shear, things shouldn't get too out of hand. SPC updated about an hour ago. No change, still a low end severe risk for strong winds.

I agree Les and with the echo over East Central Ill is moving mainly northeast even though we have that echo at the moment. Very possible that we have a spit in storms today with one to our north and one to the south. Hopefully the front itself can move in this afternoon with the prime heating and this sets off at least some storms. Will watch the radar after 1 or 2 and see if the front itself is producing some storms and should be near Indy by then heading southeast.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Increasing moisture, instability, and lift ahead of a cold
front will result in isolated to scattered showers this morning,
with thunderstorms also possible. While an initial batch of
showers is exiting east, additional showers are moving up from
Central Kentucky.

Stronger convection is expected this afternoon as the cold front
arrives. A line of thunderstorms currently over Eastern Illinois
will reach Northwest Ohio around 4 pm. Additional storms are
likely to develop and push across the Dayton and Cincinnati
areas by around 6 pm. From an environment holding upwards of
1000 J/KG CAPE and moderately strong winds aloft, there will be
a chance for isolated damaging winds with some of the storms,
though the latest HRRR keeps gusts below severe limits. Heavy
downpours are also probable with PWAT over 1.5 inches and warm
cloud depth over 10000 ft.

Highs will be a touch lower than yesterday, ranging from near
80 in the southwest to the mid 80s in the north and northeast.

[tpweather]

Les I believe Brian had a nice take on how the front itself may lay down west to east for a period of time later today and this can bring some training of storms. Exactly where that is will determine how much some areas receive . The hrrr model has it rather close to us compared to the nam. Will watch this carefully because this could end up being a rainy evening

[tron777]

Les I believe Brian had a nice take on how the front itself may lay down west to east for a period of time later today and this can bring some training of storms. Exactly where that is will determine how much some areas receive . The hrrr model has it rather close to us compared to the nam. Will watch this carefully because this could end up being a rainy evening

We sure could use it Tim! Hoping things line up correctly, but at the same time, I am equally prepared for the classic split as The Dome holds serve.

[tron777]

Looks like we've got a little action in our western counties now.

[winterstormjoe]

Ouch, the extended GFS is looking hotter and hotter, the 594 looks to be building in big time!