June 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Got 0.22 inches of rain this morning so a nice slow rain which helps. Could get an isolated shower this afternoon but most folks will remain dry. Monday looks nice but starting to get a little toasty. Middle of the week looks active and Wednesday could be quite rainy. By the weekend more unsettled weather but to early to know if its a washout or just isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers. Good news is the first two weeks of June and no heat wave or even close. This helps with soil temps has any rain that falls can be soaked into the ground. Does this continue for the remainder of June and most likely not though still not seeing any long term heat at this moment.

[tron777]

Got 0.22 inches of rain this morning so a nice slow rain which helps. Could get an isolated shower this afternoon but most folks will remain dry. Monday looks nice but starting to get a little toasty. Middle of the week looks active and Wednesday could be quite rainy. By the weekend more unsettled weather but to early to know if its a washout or just isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers. Good news is the first two weeks of June and no heat wave or even close. This helps with soil temps has any rain that falls can be soaked into the ground. Does this continue for the remainder of June and most likely not though still not seeing any long term heat at this moment.

I have written off the 1st half of June for any sustainable heat. The second half is still up in the air. My thoughts currently are that in late June into early July, that is when the heat starts to get going for us and I still expect that hotter second half of summer that I keep talking about. La Nina and the record breaking -PDO should start to take more control of the pattern by then.

[Bgoney]

Thanks everyone. Up to .40” here for the weekend, perfect for the garden beds.

[tpweather]

Got 0.22 inches of rain this morning so a nice slow rain which helps. Could get an isolated shower this afternoon but most folks will remain dry. Monday looks nice but starting to get a little toasty. Middle of the week looks active and Wednesday could be quite rainy. By the weekend more unsettled weather but to early to know if its a washout or just isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers. Good news is the first two weeks of June and no heat wave or even close. This helps with soil temps has any rain that falls can be soaked into the ground. Does this continue for the remainder of June and most likely not though still not seeing any long term heat at this moment.

I have written off the 1st half of June for any sustainable heat. The second half is still up in the air. My thoughts currently are that in late June into early July, that is when the heat starts to get going for us and I still expect that hotter second half of summer that I keep talking about. La Nina and the record breaking -PDO should start to take more control of the pattern by then.

Les it should be interesting this summer and if the experts get the number of tropical systems correct I am not sure what this does to the Bermuda High this summer. Does it stay in the Atlantic but maybe further north than usual or does it come into the southeast which is often the case and yes can set up shop in the smoky mountains. Just way too early for that prediction and do we see a few systems in about 10-14 days because of the trough over the eastern half of the USA. Always fun to watch and can we get a season like 2005 which imo has been the most active season I have ever seen.

[tron777]

Got 0.22 inches of rain this morning so a nice slow rain which helps. Could get an isolated shower this afternoon but most folks will remain dry. Monday looks nice but starting to get a little toasty. Middle of the week looks active and Wednesday could be quite rainy. By the weekend more unsettled weather but to early to know if its a washout or just isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers. Good news is the first two weeks of June and no heat wave or even close. This helps with soil temps has any rain that falls can be soaked into the ground. Does this continue for the remainder of June and most likely not though still not seeing any long term heat at this moment.

I have written off the 1st half of June for any sustainable heat. The second half is still up in the air. My thoughts currently are that in late June into early July, that is when the heat starts to get going for us and I still expect that hotter second half of summer that I keep talking about. La Nina and the record breaking -PDO should start to take more control of the pattern by then.

Les it should be interesting this summer and if the experts get the number of tropical systems correct I am not sure what this does to the Bermuda High this summer. Does it stay in the Atlantic but maybe further north than usual or does it come into the southeast which is often the case and yes can set up shop in the smoky mountains. Just way too early for that prediction and do we see a few systems in about 10-14 days because of the trough over the eastern half of the USA. Always fun to watch and can we get a season like 2005 which imo has been the most active season I have ever seen.

It will be interesting to watch. Concerning 2005, the 04-05 winter was a weak Nino and we went into a weak Nina for the 05-06 winter. This time we had a very strong El Nino this past winter. For the upcoming winter, it looks to be a moderate La Nina, perhaps even strong. With the transition into a Nina and the very warm Oceanic SST's these are two of the main reasons why we are seeing the hyperactive tropical forecasts. Does all of the excessive tropical activity keep a heat ridge parked over us or not is certainly the ultimate question. It is too early to know with high confidence but I am putting my money on a "yes" outcome.

[tpweather]

Starting to see some changes in the extended and the main item is the heat ridge over Mexico which has led to some decent heat is on the move with a portion in central California and the southwest but towards mid-week that heat is headed for the south central states. Nothing new as this happens every late spring/early summer. Will this combine with energy over the north to form any MCS. Models are not showing this but these tend to happen quickly and models are somewhat late to the show. It may not be this week but my guess by next week you would expect this to happen as the pattern becomes cooler than normal in the great lakes but warmer than normal in the south central states. This puts us in the firing zone.

This is probably a good sign that in a couple of weeks the warm side will try and edge further north and east though again with the soil moisture in decent shape and still energy coming out of the northern plains it just may take it a bit longer to gain hold and like Les mentioned end of June and early July we could see that change.

[tron777]

Starting to see some changes in the extended and the main item is the heat ridge over Mexico which has led to some decent heat is on the move with a portion in central California and the southwest but towards mid-week that heat is headed for the south central states. Nothing new as this happens every late spring/early summer. Will this combine with energy over the north to form any MCS. Models are not showing this but these tend to happen quickly and models are somewhat late to the show. It may not be this week but my guess by next week you would expect this to happen as the pattern becomes cooler than normal in the great lakes but warmer than normal in the south central states. This puts us in the firing zone.

This is probably a good sign that in a couple of weeks the warm side will try and edge further north and east though again with the soil moisture in decent shape and still energy coming out of the northern plains it just may take it a bit longer to gain hold and like Les mentioned end of June and early July we could see that change.

Longer range GFS is showing a NW Flow pattern so that maybe our chance to cash in on the MCS Train before the heat comes and stays for a while. As usual we'll see but that is kind of how I see things playing out.

For the rest of today, we need some sun to build up the CAPE ahead of the weak low that is expected to move in this afternoon and evening. If we cannot build up any CAPE then shower and t-storm coverage will be minimal. If we can build up a little CAPE then we have a chance at seeing a bit more rain before the day is over. Per the visible satellite, we are socked in and that looks to continue for a while longer. Love the temps though, mid 60s atm.

[Wxlrnr]

Starting to get breaks in the clouds with peeks of sun. Surprised when I checked my rain guage, 0.75 inches overnight.

[tron777]

Big time overcast here after the skies brightened up for a brief moment. Looks like a small batch of showers are moving in.

[tron777]

Well shoot... that little batch of showers missed me to the south. 12Z GFS in the fantasy range shows a 594 DM ridge over us by mid June. If correct, that would be the 90s rearing their ugly head. Hopefully it's a case of delayed but not denied.

[Bgoney]

Starting to get breaks in the clouds with peeks of sun. Surprised when I checked my rain guage, 0.75 inches overnight.

Regional totals. Small bullseye of blue in eastern Hamilton

IMG_1794.png

[tron777]

Picked up a ground wetter just now. Probably added on another 0.01" or so to the total. Better then a zero!®

[tron777]

Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro have CVG in that 0.50-0.75" range for Wednesday of next week. That would be wonderful if that actually turned out to be correct.

[tpweather]

Same here. Extended and Wednesday looks wet and hopefully the whole area can get somewhere in that 1/2-1 inch range. Keeping the rain in here every 3-4 days will no doubt keep the longer term heat in check. Will watch the south central states later this week as they have been wet this past week but will we start to a longer period for them between rains. One thing to watch is the front coming across the USA this week and how far south before it stalls and it looks to be a rather strong front for early June

[tron777]

Same here. Extended and Wednesday looks wet and hopefully the whole area can get somewhere in that 1/2-1 inch range. Keeping the rain in here every 3-4 days will no doubt keep the longer term heat in check. Will watch the south central states later this week as they have been wet this past week but will we start to a longer period for them between rains. One thing to watch is the front coming across the USA this week and how far south before it stalls and it looks to be a rather strong front for early June

Right now Tim it appears that the front clears the area giving us a nice Friday but it is short lived as an upper low to our north / NE brings in some shower activity next weekend. The GFS has more rain then the Euro does at this time. It's a ways out but something I am watching with interest as I'd like to go to Lake Erie for the weekend. But if that upper low is around the trip would be a hard NO.

[tron777]

75 for my high and CVG's atm thanks to some late day sunshine. A few showers are still around as well.

[tpweather]

Well shoot... that little batch of showers missed me to the south. 12Z GFS in the fantasy range shows a 594 DM ridge over us by mid June. If correct, that would be the 90s rearing their ugly head. Hopefully it's a case of delayed but not denied.

Hey Les and my guess that is incorrect though some 594's should start showing up in the southern plains. No doubt we will see this over the summer but just hoping these are in small time periods. Of course at first the atmosphere must fight its way in so with decent soil moisture well to the west and southwest of here it will take a period of time before it gets in place. These strong highs though can be bullies so once they get a hold on the pattern they are not so easily pushed around especially later in June through at least August.

[tpweather]

I see the gfs is also trying to get a tropical system near Florida in about 10 days. Not sure this is correct but the pattern does support a system that could turn tropical. They can use the rain and especially southern Florida so not all tropical systems are bad when they hit land.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 77, DAY 75 and CMH 70 today.

[tron777]

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Significantly reduced visibility could make driving
conditions hazardous.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Be careful when going to work or traveling this morning with regards to dense fog around the region. Otherwise, a warm day along with dry conditions can be expected with highs in the mid 80s. Look for scattered late day storms tomorrow with temps again in the 80s. Wed is our wettest day of the week. For severe wx concerns I think some strong storms are possible Tues and Wed but I don't see any big time severe wx outbreaks or anything like that. We are nice again by Thurs and Fri with temps in the low 80s Thurs and in the 70s by Fri.

Still watching the location of the upper low for this weekend since that will determine clouds, temps, and how much shower coverage we see. The GFS is further west with the ULL so better shower chances this weekend on into Mon of next week. The Euro is further East with it so less in the way of coverage and it won't be a huge deal really at all. We shall have to wait and see which model solution turns out being correct once we get closer.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. Looks like Wednesday into early Thursday has a nice shot of some decent rain and .5-1.0 seems correct. Starting to see more coverage of something tropical in the GOM near Florida next week and we know when the tropics become active the models tend to have problems in the longer term especially concerning temps. Th pattern tells us the chances for tropical activity should be going higher in that area and at least the models are catching onto that though timing and placement is still in the works. If a system forms and moves northeast this could also bring us another cold front later next week to head off and extended heat but again the storm has not even formed yet

[tron777]

Good Morning Les. Looks like Wednesday into early Thursday has a nice shot of some decent rain and .5-1.0 seems correct. Starting to see more coverage of something tropical in the GOM near Florida next week and we know when the tropics become active the models tend to have problems in the longer term especially concerning temps. Th pattern tells us the chances for tropical activity should be going higher in that area and at least the models are catching onto that though timing and placement is still in the works. If a system forms and moves northeast this could also bring us another cold front later next week to head off and extended heat but again the storm has not even formed yet

Good morning Tim! Locally in my own backyard, I could use a good soaking. Hopefully those rainfall amounts this week can be realized. I've been watching the tropics too and the GFS keeps trying to cook something up. Not sure if it's the usual GFS BS, or if this is something real. We'll just have to wait and see. What I keep thinking is that once the tropics get active, that'll be when we see the heat, and I am talking sustainable heat, build into the region.

[tron777]

Man... it is very foggy here in Mason looking outside the office window. Not much in terms of visibility. Even CVG is reporting only 1/4 mile vis as of the 7am reading.

[tron777]

Fog finally lifted here in Mason. We still have a good stratus deck though. Per the visible, we should get some sun in the next hour or two as the air mixes out,