Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion 2024

[tron777]

Hello all....

With an El Nino to La Nina transition and above avg SST's in the MDR (Main Development Region) of the ATL basin.... it is expected that we will be having a well above avg hurricane season. However.... will the Saharan Dust Layer (SAL) have a thing or two up its sleeve to slow the activity down or at least delay the formation of systems for a while? Something worth watching that is for sure. I have seen a couple of seasonal tropical models (Euro and UKMET) and both seem to be going with above avg tropical activity. As far as the storm tracks go, the models are showing that the SE and East Coasts will be at risk from more West to East moving systems instead of recurving systems like we saw last year, As usual, we shall see! Thoughts?

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and no nothing forming at this point. We have a trough digging into the eastern USA late in the week and next week. This will promote some decent rainfall for Florida but south of there can we get an early tropical system to develop. Again its just when you see these troughs dig rather far south in May sometimes you can get a system to develop or least some added moisture as Florida will become active. The pacific is calm once again and it seems year after year we are seeing less activity in the pacific ocean and you got wonder with the waters being warm in so much of the ocean this is one reason with the lower numbers.

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and no nothing forming at this point. We have a trough digging into the eastern USA late in the week and next week. This will promote some decent rainfall for Florida but south of there can we get an early tropical system to develop. Again its just when you see these troughs dig rather far south in May sometimes you can get a system to develop or least some added moisture as Florida will become active. The pacific is calm once again and it seems year after year we are seeing less activity in the pacific ocean and you got wonder with the waters being warm in so much of the ocean this is one reason with the lower numbers.

IMO wind shear is the killer for t-storm development and convection which is needed for tropical development. The upper level winds over the Pacific Basin have not been good for tropical development. If the developing La Nina has an influence, the Pacific should have lower activity as well this year. As far as the Atlantic basin goes, La Nina, Saharan dust etc, will [play a role. The warmer then normal SST's are most certainly there which will can help if the other factors are working correctly.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season started June 1st. Most of the experts are predicting an above normal amount of tropical systems. The waters are no doubt very warm and already starting to see the models showing some activity south of Cuba in about 10 days. Normally we get a few systems early in June but of course the main course is in August and September .

Concerning the amount of tropical systems and we know they love to name storms even if the criteria is really not meant. So yes we may get above the normal amount of systems but we must weigh each system and does it really need to be named.

[tron777]

Here are the list of names for the 2024 season:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

NOAA's call:

17-25 named storms
8-13 of those becoming hurricanes
4-7 of those becoming major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher)

The folks at Colorado State are going with:

23 named storms
11 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

ACE of 210

Remember ACE stands for Accumulated Cyclone Energy and you can gauge the season by ACE. A storm will get a low ACE score if it is weak in intensity or doesn't last very long. The stronger the storm and the longer it lasts, the higher the ACE score. The avg ACE for the Atlantic basin for the season is 123.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and the ACE is probably a better way to guage the energy. Really at the end of the day how many systems caused damage is the main concern. The heavy rains are many times beneficial so not all systems are bad. Still believe they name to many but at the end of the day the lives that are lost really matter the most.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and the ACE is probably a better way to guage the energy. Really at the end of the day how many systems caused damage is the main concern. The heavy rains are many times beneficial so not all systems are bad. Still believe they name to many but at the end of the day the lives that are lost really matter the most.

Totally agree Tim. You can have an active season but if none of them make landfall or hit high population centers, then nobody will remember the season. Even in an inactive season like 1992 was, all it takes is 1 storm to make it memorable. In that season it was Hurricane Andrew.

[tron777]

NHC has a 20% chance now in the next 5 days of a Gulf system developing into something tropical.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[Bgoney]

This is good news because models are taking tropical moisture into severe drought areas in Mexico

[tron777]

This is good news because models are taking tropical moisture into severe drought areas in Mexico

Same with Florida. From drought to flooding in a matter of just a few days.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and watching the radar and surface reports south Florida getting hammered. Been the same area over and over and folks just north of there where the drought is worse is getting little if any rain. This may not be a named storm but its producing tons of rain and even a tornado.

[tron777]

NHC still has that disturbance off the FL Coast at 20%. I'd be watching the S Gulf or Bay of Campeche over the next week or so for possible development.

[tron777]

NHC now has a tropical wave at a 70% chance for development over the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

This is the Bay of Campeche potential that I mentioned last week. We might get our 1st named storm of the season out of it. Current indications that it moves WNW and potentially gets Texas. This is a very very early preliminary look so I wouldn't get too caught up in some of the modeling just yet.

[tron777]

NHC now has the S Gulf wave at a 60% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance in the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico. A broad
area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of
the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on
those warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service. Interests along the western and
northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[tron777]

We now have PTC 1 in the S Gulf.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
100 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS
LIKELY TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.0W
ABOUT 360 MI...585 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

This one looks to turn into Mexico and clip Deep S Texas with heavy rains. There should be another Gulf system down the road though in the extended range which could move further to the north to become more of a problem for the US.

[Bgoney]

The much needed rain’s from this system perfectly line up with where some of the worst droughts are in the US and Mexico.

[tron777]

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 93.8W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[tron777]

We're on the board now with TS Alberto.

Tropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
100 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...ALBERTO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ALONG
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 95.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

[MVWxObserver]

2348 2 WNW Rockport Aransas TX 2804 9708 Reports of significant roof damage and several trees down. Multiple reports of the public seeing the tornado. (CRP)

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
100 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...ALBERTO APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 96.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

We also have another disturbance that will be moving into the S Gulf in the days to come that the NHC has pegged at 50% chance of development over the next 5 days. The one off the SE Coast is only at a 30% chance.