June 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

The first month of Met. Summer begins this weekend and it'll begin where May left off, with an active pattern. As we pull out of the current trough, and warm back up into the U70s to L80s this weekend, t-storm chances return to the forecast. The pattern looks to get active again with daily storm chances this weekend thru the middle of next week. Too early to tell with regards to severe wx this far out, but it will be something to watch once we get closer. Then, we get another trough and shot of cool air. Wash, rinse, and repeat IMO as this pattern continues to repeat itself for the first half of June the way it looks to me.

[tron777]

0Z GEFS and EPS are in excellent agreement with ridging over the West / Troughing over the Lakes and Ohio Valley for the 1st half of June. The ensembles even show a -NAO developing as well to keep the pattern locked in place. I've said it before and I'll say it again.... why can't we get this pattern during the winter months? Anyway... we will continue to see cold fronts coming in from the NW with an active pattern as well as bouts of severe wx from time to time. No big heat for at least the next 2 weeks IMO.

[Bgoney]

0Z GEFS and EPS are in excellent agreement with ridging over the West / Troughing over the Lakes and Ohio Valley for the 1st half of June. The ensembles even show a -NAO developing as well to keep the pattern locked in place. I've said it before and I'll say it again.... why can't we get this pattern during the winter months? Anyway... we will continue to see cold fronts coming in from the NW with an active pattern as well as bouts of severe wx from time to time. No big heat for at least the next 2 weeks IMO.

It will be quite the task for a trough to set up in an area of ocean with the most positive anomaly across the globe. I’m skeptical atm at least if that can happen or can be sustained.

IMG_1784.jpeg

[tron777]

0Z GEFS and EPS are in excellent agreement with ridging over the West / Troughing over the Lakes and Ohio Valley for the 1st half of June. The ensembles even show a -NAO developing as well to keep the pattern locked in place. I've said it before and I'll say it again.... why can't we get this pattern during the winter months? Anyway... we will continue to see cold fronts coming in from the NW with an active pattern as well as bouts of severe wx from time to time. No big heat for at least the next 2 weeks IMO.

It will be quite the task for a trough to set up in an area of ocean with the most positive anomaly across the globe. I’m skeptical atm at least if that can happen or can be sustained.



IMG_1784.jpeg

I keep expecting it to change into a -PNA as that would be what you would expect with a developing La Nina, a very -PDO, etc. Yet it hasn't happened. I'm still going to stand by the idea of the ridging out west eventually coming east though as I've said before. I still expect a hotter July and Aug versus June. That is why I entered the 90 degree day contest the way I did. But for now... I still see the +PNA continuing giving us cold fronts, severe wx chances, and cooler shots of air. I for one will enjoy it while it lasts. It would be funny though if this pattern does persist and all of the "hottest summer on record" forecasts would go down in flames. I even heard BG last week in one of his blog videos mentioning a Top Ten hottest summer is possible for Louisville. We'll see I guess! I went hotter then avg for summer myself, but how hot remains to be seen.

I'm also wondering what will happen with the big ridge over Mexico. They have had an ongoing heat wave down there for a while. The only thing I could see to change that would be an active Eastern Pacific hurricane season but with the La Nina... I am not so sure that will happen. As you know, there are a lot of moving parts to our global weather patterns and sometimes, it is tough to see what feature will be in the driver's seat.

[Bgoney]

0Z GEFS and EPS are in excellent agreement with ridging over the West / Troughing over the Lakes and Ohio Valley for the 1st half of June. The ensembles even show a -NAO developing as well to keep the pattern locked in place. I've said it before and I'll say it again.... why can't we get this pattern during the winter months? Anyway... we will continue to see cold fronts coming in from the NW with an active pattern as well as bouts of severe wx from time to time. No big heat for at least the next 2 weeks IMO.

It will be quite the task for a trough to set up in an area of ocean with the most positive anomaly across the globe. I’m skeptical atm at least if that can happen or can be sustained.



IMG_1784.jpeg

I keep expecting it to change into a -PNA as that would be what you would expect with a developing La Nina, a very -PDO, etc. Yet it hasn't happened. I'm still going to stand by the idea of the ridging out west eventually coming east though as I've said before. I still expect a hotter July and Aug versus June. That is why I entered the 90 degree day contest the way I did. But for now... I still see the +PNA continuing giving us cold fronts, severe wx chances, and cooler shots of air. I for one will enjoy it while it lasts. It would be funny though if this pattern does persist and all of the "hottest summer on record" forecasts would go down in flames. I even heard BG last week in one of his blog videos mentioning a Top Ten hottest summer is possible for Louisville. We'll see I guess! I went hotter then avg for summer myself, but how hot remains to be seen.

I'm also wondering what will happen with the big ridge over Mexico. They have had an ongoing heat wave down there for a while. The only thing I could see to change that would be an active Eastern Pacific hurricane season but with the La Nina... I am not so sure that will happen. As you know, there are a lot of moving parts to our global weather patterns and sometimes, it is tough to see what feature will be in the driver's seat.

With the open borders, The Mexican ridge could easily migrate into the SW US over the coming weeks /months. If that happens monsoon season for them will be down but give the eastern half of the country ridge rider activity.

[tpweather]

Good afternoon and some wonderful thoughts concerning summer. Funny I went with 30 90 degree days and 10 at 89. Just for kicks if that happen does not mean its a hot summer. What if every 90 degree day was 90 on the nose then we are only talking about a few degrees above normal. To me a hot summer can be one of two things with the first being low -mid 90's and dew points in the low-mid 70's for an extended time. Second one usually occurs later in summer and you have temps in the mid-upper 90's but dew points in the 60's. My thinking has always been 1-2 degrees either above or below normal is a normal period. Then once we get over the 2 degree difference then its a slightly warmer or cooler summer and then continue on to anything 5 degree or above is considered very warm or very cool.

[tron777]

0Z GEFS and EPS are in excellent agreement with ridging over the West / Troughing over the Lakes and Ohio Valley for the 1st half of June. The ensembles even show a -NAO developing as well to keep the pattern locked in place. I've said it before and I'll say it again.... why can't we get this pattern during the winter months? Anyway... we will continue to see cold fronts coming in from the NW with an active pattern as well as bouts of severe wx from time to time. No big heat for at least the next 2 weeks IMO.

It will be quite the task for a trough to set up in an area of ocean with the most positive anomaly across the globe. I’m skeptical atm at least if that can happen or can be sustained.



IMG_1784.jpeg

I keep expecting it to change into a -PNA as that would be what you would expect with a developing La Nina, a very -PDO, etc. Yet it hasn't happened. I'm still going to stand by the idea of the ridging out west eventually coming east though as I've said before. I still expect a hotter July and Aug versus June. That is why I entered the 90 degree day contest the way I did. But for now... I still see the +PNA continuing giving us cold fronts, severe wx chances, and cooler shots of air. I for one will enjoy it while it lasts. It would be funny though if this pattern does persist and all of the "hottest summer on record" forecasts would go down in flames. I even heard BG last week in one of his blog videos mentioning a Top Ten hottest summer is possible for Louisville. We'll see I guess! I went hotter then avg for summer myself, but how hot remains to be seen.

I'm also wondering what will happen with the big ridge over Mexico. They have had an ongoing heat wave down there for a while. The only thing I could see to change that would be an active Eastern Pacific hurricane season but with the La Nina... I am not so sure that will happen. As you know, there are a lot of moving parts to our global weather patterns and sometimes, it is tough to see what feature will be in the driver's seat.

With the open borders, The Mexican ridge could easily migrate into the SW US over the coming weeks /months. If that happens monsoon season for them will be down but give the eastern half of the country ridge rider activity.

The whole idea of a hot summer is to have the Mexican ridge migrate into Texas and the SW and then hook up with the normal summertime Bermuda high to really bake a lot of the country from what I have read from the Pro Mets out there. I was always under the impression that if the ridge comes north, we should see Western US toughing to push it more East into the Midwest and Eastern US in time. That was my whole thought process on getting a hotter second half of summer versus the first half.

[tron777]

Good afternoon and some wonderful thoughts concerning summer. Funny I went with 30 90 degree days and 10 at 89. Just for kicks if that happen does not mean its a hot summer. What if every 90 degree day was 90 on the nose then we are only talking about a few degrees above normal. To me a hot summer can be one of two things with the first being low -mid 90's and dew points in the low-mid 70's for an extended time. Second one usually occurs later in summer and you have temps in the mid-upper 90's but dew points in the 60's. My thinking has always been 1-2 degrees either above or below normal is a normal period. Then once we get over the 2 degree difference then its a slightly warmer or cooler summer and then continue on to anything 5 degree or above is considered very warm or very cool.

Very nice post Tim! Temp departures of a couple of degrees is slightly above avg but nothing really out of the ordinary as you mentioned. You start seeing +5 to +10 degree departures, that is way more noticeable for sure. Totally agree with what you're saying here in other words. In recent years, it's not so much the high temps getting us to above normal temps but more so the overnight lows. I think the nights are warmer so that is skewing the temp averages upward more then the afternoon highs in my opinion.

[Bgoney]

Curious to see when or if we can get the return of a SEridge, which has been Weak to non existent for a long time going back to last spring.

[tron777]

Curious to see when or if we can get the return of a SEridge, which has been Weak to non existent for a long time going back to last spring.

No doubt and with La Nina developing... if it gets strong enough, you'd think the SE ridge would return. We shall see what happens. The strange thing is... no matter if its trying to forecast the summer or the winter, one thing is for sure. Whatever is driving the pattern, the end results are different nowadays then they used to be making our tried and true methods difficult.

[tron777]

For the 1st day of June, which is Sat, I think most of the day is dry. I can't rule out a storm late in the day though. Then, we have scattered chances for Sunday and on into next week with Tues right now looking to have a pretty good chance. Being a week away that can change of course. Just trying to give folks a heads up for plan making purposes.

[Bgoney]

Looks like a welcome break from severe weather for much of the country starting in a couple days as the jet shifts more northward along the US/Canada border over the weekend and next week

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and Bgoney. Was about to comment on the jet stream but Bgoney beat me to it. That time of year when the jet normally moves northward. Many times this starts a drier period for us but in this case we still have a trough digging into the Ohio Valley. Yes this usually decreases chances for severe weather and the USA can use a break. We will need to see if the heat out west will start to creep eastward in the next week or so plus will the central and southern plains become drier as well. The one good thing is the soil moisture is doing well and hopefully make it easier to help in the rainfall department. Though we are above normal for the year things can dry out quickly and this does concern me for later June.

The heat in Mexico and does the main area of heat remain out west or will that head up through Texas and then north and east. Start looking for the Bermuda high as well and see what position that may take this summer.

Hope everyone gets in on the contest by Friday

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! Looks like we're all just kind of waiting to see how the features we have been discussing materialize down the road.

[tron777]

12z GFS looks a little busy to start June (rain chances on Sat, and a decent portion of next week) but the last 2 runs have backed off on the cooler temps and troughiness. The overnight Ensemble guidance hasn't backed off whatsoever, so we'll see what the 12z Ensembles do here soon.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS and EPS keep the Ridge West / Trough East pattern pretty much intact for the next 2 weeks so for now... discard the 12Z OP GFS (as usual)

[Bgoney]

EU trended much wetter for the OV over the weekend, I don’t know if I’m buying those widespread regional amounts atm

[tpweather]

EU trended much wetter for the OV over the weekend, I don’t know if I’m buying those widespread regional amounts atm

Saw that and quite a bit of rain next week. Interesting to say the least and its like spring and summer combined and this makes it a little more complicated in forecasting. Still seeing quite a bit of action in the central and southern plains which is more a mid-spring item but we are getting plenty of increased moisture like late spring/early summer. The more rain in those areas plus if that expands into the Ohio Valley it will take time to get any long term heat to stay in place. Again we are not to June yet and many folks still throwing out a hot summer and sure that can be correct but need to watch June and see if the rainfall becomes more isolated like you normally see later in the month or do we continue with several chances of rain every week. I made need to lower my totals on the 90 degree contest but will wait until Friday and some of the signs I thought would start to show has really not done that. One item thrown out there is a higher than normal Atlantic hurricane season and if that is true then most likely some of those would hit the mainland USA in August would again may knock down the 90 degree temps. Very complicated and like Les mentioned we may be headed into a La NIna but that does not mean it will act like previous ones that start gaining strength in the summer

[tron777]

Good morning folks! 0Z GFS isn't very impressive for this weekend minus a chance Sat afternoon and evening. But it did bring the troughiness and active pattern back on this run overall as a whole. 0Z Euro continues the wetter weekend forecast and it's still pretty active for next week.

[Trevor]

Curious to see when or if we can get the return of a SEridge, which has been Weak to non existent for a long time going back to last spring.

No doubt and with La Nina developing... if it gets strong enough, you'd think the SE ridge would return. We shall see what happens. The strange thing is... no matter if its trying to forecast the summer or the winter, one thing is for sure. Whatever is driving the pattern, the end results are different nowadays then they used to be making our tried and true methods difficult.

I was talking about this with a colleague recently. Forecasting long term has become much more difficult than it used to be.

[tron777]

Curious to see when or if we can get the return of a SEridge, which has been Weak to non existent for a long time going back to last spring.

No doubt and with La Nina developing... if it gets strong enough, you'd think the SE ridge would return. We shall see what happens. The strange thing is... no matter if its trying to forecast the summer or the winter, one thing is for sure. Whatever is driving the pattern, the end results are different nowadays then they used to be making our tried and true methods difficult.

I was talking about this with a colleague recently. Forecasting long term has become much more difficult than it used to be.

It has Trev! I mean we all know that Meteorology is an imperfect science and it always will be due to how fluid our atmosphere is and the chaos theory. But years ago, we had a pretty good understanding on some of the long range / climate indicators. It just seems that these days, those same indicators are yielding different results. I'm not trying to turn this into a climate change debate. I'm not going down that road. But facts are facts and the fact is.... that we've got to figure out what's going on so we can correct our long term forecasting mistakes.

[tpweather]

Great Posts guys and like Les mentioned not going down the road of a climate change because sure the climate changes all the time but the reasons behind this are many and some that make no sense at all. Where do I pay my carbon tax and what the heck is that lol.

Getting back to weather and yes weather and climate intertwine as we know. Over the past say 20-30 years no doubt the oceans have got warmer and why is that is up for debate but I do believe volcano activity in the oceans have caused some of this warming. If you think about it volcano's on the surface of earth that erupt can cause weather pattern to change for a period of time and many times if the eruption is big enough it can keep parts of the earth cooler for an extended period. If those volcano's are going off in the oceans that would create a warmer surface and that seems to have expanded. This is not the only item causing warmer oceans and maybe just maybe this is Mother Nature once again balancing things out and with warmer oceans you get more water vapor and this produces more precip and further north which also leads to milder winter in parts of the arctic.

Again no perfect answer and that is fine but folks who love trying to figure out the puzzle will need to work harder which again is not a bad thing at all. Everybody has a bias just like the models but able to see the bias in your own forecasting is never easy.

Enough of the rant and to me its making this old guy use his brain more which is always a good sign as we age

[tpweather]

Good morning folks! 0Z GFS isn't very impressive for this weekend minus a chance Sat afternoon and evening. But it did bring the troughiness and active pattern back on this run overall as a whole. 0Z Euro continues the wetter weekend forecast and it's still pretty active for next week.

Which way to go when the two major models are not quite seeing eye to eye this close to a period of active weather. Not sure of the higher totals of the Euro but believe its closer to reality than the gfs. Next week could be quite stormy and here is where some decent rains could fall and if we get an upper low in the correct position then somebody could get a dumping of rain as these lows can move quite slow and get stuck under and trough. I believe models have a hard time showing the exact location this far out and sort of spread the rain totals out over a larger area but in reality once we get closer the models can zoom on certain areas for the bigger amounts. As I see it t this moment for rain totals starting Saturday and lasting until next Friday I am going overall 1-2 inches but my gut tells me if somebody gets in the correct position with an upper system that area can easily double those number. I know the last couple of weeks I had one really nice rainfall but most of the others I was on the short end of the stick.

[tron777]

Great Posts guys and like Les mentioned not going down the road of a climate change because sure the climate changes all the time but the reasons behind this are many and some that make no sense at all. Where do I pay my carbon tax and what the heck is that lol.

Getting back to weather and yes weather and climate intertwine as we know. Over the past say 20-30 years no doubt the oceans have got warmer and why is that is up for debate but I do believe volcano activity in the oceans have caused some of this warming. If you think about it volcano's on the surface of earth that erupt can cause weather pattern to change for a period of time and many times if the eruption is big enough it can keep parts of the earth cooler for an extended period. If those volcano's are going off in the oceans that would create a warmer surface and that seems to have expanded. This is not the only item causing warmer oceans and maybe just maybe this is Mother Nature once again balancing things out and with warmer oceans you get more water vapor and this produces more precip and further north which also leads to milder winter in parts of the arctic.

Again no perfect answer and that is fine but folks who love trying to figure out the puzzle will need to work harder which again is not a bad thing at all. Everybody has a bias just like the models but able to see the bias in your own forecasting is never easy.

Enough of the rant and to me its making this old guy use his brain more which is always a good sign as we age

Glad that you brought up the volcanic eruptions Tim. It's interesting because the Tonga–Hunga back in 2022 sent a ton of water vapor into the stratosphere. Then we continue to see regular volcanoes in Iceland and Papa New Guinea that keeps releasing ash and sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. There is no doubt in my mind that these things can and do impact our climate but to what extent is currently unknown at this time.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! 0Z GFS isn't very impressive for this weekend minus a chance Sat afternoon and evening. But it did bring the troughiness and active pattern back on this run overall as a whole. 0Z Euro continues the wetter weekend forecast and it's still pretty active for next week.

Which way to go when the two major models are not quite seeing eye to eye this close to a period of active weather. Not sure of the higher totals of the Euro but believe its closer to reality than the gfs. Next week could be quite stormy and here is where some decent rains could fall and if we get an upper low in the correct position then somebody could get a dumping of rain as these lows can move quite slow and get stuck under and trough. I believe models have a hard time showing the exact location this far out and sort of spread the rain totals out over a larger area but in reality once we get closer the models can zoom on certain areas for the bigger amounts. As I see it t this moment for rain totals starting Saturday and lasting until next Friday I am going overall 1-2 inches but my gut tells me if somebody gets in the correct position with an upper system that area can easily double those number. I know the last couple of weeks I had one really nice rainfall but most of the others I was on the short end of the stick.

The weekend forecast is up for grabs too, let alone next week. If you believe the GFS then you need POPS for Sat then a dry Sunday where the Euro has POPS very late Sat and more so for Sunday. We've got to get that right so we can get next week right which does look active to me also as you mentioned.