May 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Got the brush pile burnt. Now it's time for cold beer! Got the grill going now. Baked potato, portobella mushroom and a t-bone steak! That'll be a nice meal!

[Browneyedgirl]

Got the brush pile burnt. Now it's time for cold beer! Got the grill going now. Baked potato, portobella mushroom and a t-bone steak! That'll be a nice meal!

Sounds great! Enjoy!!

[tron777]

Got the brush pile burnt. Now it's time for cold beer! Got the grill going now. Baked potato, portobella mushroom and a t-bone steak! That'll be a nice meal!

Sounds great! Enjoy!!

Thanks Lisa! I sure will. )

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY reached 82 and CMH 86 today.

[MVWxObserver]

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...

Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely

Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter likely

Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely

Wx buffs like Jeremy Moses and Corey Ecton e.g. are under the gun in OK. Prayers and thoughts with them and scores of others down that way.

[tron777]

I hit 81 today. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Get a good night's sleep tonight just in case.

[tron777]

Good morning all! SPC has expanded the enhanced risk area further to the NE covering more of AV Country. Damaging winds will be the greatest risk for us. Hail and tornadoes are still a threat but the greatest threat for those two will be to our south and SW. Radar has round 1 already moving into St. Louis with ILL and Western KY next up on the list. This is with the warm front which will be here around midday to the early afternoon hours. Then as we've discussed, how much can we recover for the evening / overnight action? Stay tuned...

The boys had this to say for today and tonight:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Through sunrise, a weak cold front will lay out west to east
along/near the Ohio River. Some river valley fog will be found
in our eastern/southern zones. High clouds will filter in from
the west, blowing off from upstream convection across the
Plains.

For today, convective complexes occurring across IA/KS/MO early
this morning were being aided by a mid level s/wv. These
complexes will also likely result in the formation of one or
more MCVs. The s/wv and MCVs are forecast to eject east into the
middle Ohio Valley by this afternoon. This energy will couple
with an advancing warm front which will bring a plume of MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, occurring within a moderately
sheared environment. As a result, various convection allowing
models develop some type of MCS which will progress
east/northeast through the area during the afternoon. Given
shear and instability, some strong to severe storms will be
possible with damaging wind and large hail being the main severe
weather threats, although a spin up tornado can not be ruled
out given the shear environment. Have gone with categorical
PoPs. There appears that once this system moves through, there
will likely be a period where pcpn chances will decrease
substantially in the wake of this system, along with bringing a
temporary decrease in overall instability due to rain cooled air
and weak subsidence. Will talk about this more in the short
term discussion. It will be humid with highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s under a low level southerly flow pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Models continue to advertise a secondary mid level s/wv moving
into the region tonight. This feature will be associated with a
stronger low level jet and stronger wind fields. The key to CAMs
developing another MCS across the region will be how much of
the area can recover with SB/MLCAPES to result in severe weather
versus more convection that is elevated/decoupled from the
surface. Right now, it appears that our southern/southwestern
CWA will have the best chance to at least recover with some
SB/MLCAPEs as thunderstorms develop in the low level convergent
flow. As storms begin to share cold pools, the system will be
pushed forward east/southeast with the 0-3 km shear vector.
Damaging winds would be the main threat with isolated large
hail, as well as isolated/few tornadoes possible on on
individual bowing segments. Again have gone with likely to
categorical PoPs. The airmass will be the most moist tonight
with pwats in the 1.50 to 2.00 inch range. Thus, very heavy rain
may fall in a short period of time which would pose a
flood/flash flood threat. However, this should be limited if
storms move at a steady pace. Will mention all hazards for today
and tonight in the HWO. Pcpn is expected to taper off/diminish
in area coverage late as the complex moves east/southeast. Lows
tonight will fall into the lower to mid 60s.

[Trevor]

My latest thoughts and outlooks.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and great post Trev. I drove home from Nashville Saturday morning and yes some storms when I left but the radar showed nothing for southern Kentucky. That would not stay the same as showers and thundershowers exploded all the way to southern Louisville. So this morning with the sunshine and the warm front heading this way with the band of storms I believe the early afternoon could be quite active. How fast do these move out of the area will also be part of the equation for the second round. I agree most likely the strongest of these will be further south but we will still be near enough to pay attention.

[MJSun]

Hi all! Been enjoying the weather- was quite sticky yesterday. Hoping we don't get too severe today.

After all this rain, we need to tackle the jungle that is our back yard weed situation.

PXL_20240526_125157457.jpg

[tron777]

I like your update there Trev. I think it'll also work out as you described. You can really feel the stickiness in the air! It'll be interesting to see how much rain we see thru Monday morning. 1-2" is a good call. Some folks less some more per the usual.

[tpweather]

I like your update there Trev. I think it'll also work out as you described. You can really feel the stickiness in the air! It'll be interesting to see how much rain we see thru Monday morning. 1-2" is a good call. Some folks less some more per the usual.

Good Morning Les. Trying to figure out if we get a break between the 1st and 2nd round. Going to be an interesting day and of course I have a Reds game which has been moved up to 1210pm. Looks like the 1st round gets in here somewhere around 130pm or so but will this be enough to cancel the game or keep us in a rain delay which I am not a fan of. No matter what happens after 4pm I am out and ready to relax on Memorial Day. I will try and show one pic from the wedding on Friday in Nashville and the hint is a donkey serving beer. I will try and get that pic out once I get back from the game.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

I like your update there Trev. I think it'll also work out as you described. You can really feel the stickiness in the air! It'll be interesting to see how much rain we see thru Monday morning. 1-2" is a good call. Some folks less some more per the usual.

Good Morning Les. Trying to figure out if we get a break between the 1st and 2nd round. Going to be an interesting day and of course I have a Reds game which has been moved up to 1210pm. Looks like the 1st round gets in here somewhere around 130pm or so but will this be enough to cancel the game or keep us in a rain delay which I am not a fan of. No matter what happens after 4pm I am out and ready to relax on Memorial Day. I will try and show one pic from the wedding on Friday in Nashville and the hint is a donkey serving beer. I will try and get that pic out once I get back from the game.

Good morning Tim! That's awesome! Sounds like you had a great time at the wedding!

We all know that the key for the overnight action is how much can the atmosphere recover after the 1st round passes us by? The LLJ and wind shear will be perfect tonight for severe wx, but the instability is the piece of the puzzle we will need to keep an eye on. For now... it looks like a tornado watch for the Western half of KY as well as N TN per the latest SPC MD. Visible sat. shows the cloud shield getting ready to move into the region from the West so our heating won't be lasting too much longer. CAPE values range from 500 J/KG north of Cincy to 2000 J/KG for Central KY. All of the good shear is behind the warm front in the warm sector so I would imagine that these storms should be weakening some as they push into our area. However to help counteract that, mid level lapse rates are really steep over our region and that can certainly help to get the storms going. It'll be a wait and see game as usual.

Latest hires guidance, like the 12Z HRRR has the arrival around 1-2pm lasting until around 4-5pm. Then for this evening into the overnight, storms fire ahead of the surface low mainly S of the Ohio River so it's more of a Central and SKY event if this model is correct. 12Z 3K NAM is just coming in now so we'll see what it has to say shortly.

[Bgoney]

From SPC and our early afternoon storms.

IMG_1775.jpeg

An ongoing severe MCS, with embedded supercells and bowing segments and a history of several overnight tornadoes in the Ozarks, will continue to pose a threat for all severe hazards (including tornadoes) for at least the next several hours past midday. This threat should persist as activity exits the Ozarks, crosses the adjoining Mississippi Valley, and moves into parts of the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. Some northward expansion toward/past the warm front is possible over the Ohio Valley. This activity should only gradually outpace the most favorable buoyancy as it approaches the Appalachians, and may still have a severe threat across the higher terrain. Confidence in its persistence is heightened by the presence of at least one MCV over the eastern Ozarks, which should enhance ascent and lower/middle-tropospheric vertical wind profiles/shear on the mesoscale. Organization of these thunderstorms should continue to take advantage of forced lift with cold pools, as well as lift from internal rotational dynamics of supercells and bookend vortices, to overcome modest MLCINH this morning through midday. Inflow air will contain rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F, locally higher), and will be diurnally destabilizing from heating and warm advection near and south of the warm front. For near-term guidance, see SPC Tornado Watch 314 and related mesoscale discussions.

[tron777]

3KM NAM's arrival time is similar to the HRRR's but the storms pack a punch! The sounding shows conditions favorable for all severe wx hazards including tornadoes as winds veer with heights and they try and back more to the SE at the surface. Large hail and wind is also of concern per this model. Pretty amazing to see the model differences even this close to the event but that is why nowcasting will be so important from now thru tonight.

The NAM is much further north with the surface low for tonight versus the HRRR so the atmosphere is able to recover nicely for round 2. It is also much slower with the arrival of round 2 as well. The convection looks to be more elevated versus surface based which is good as far as tornadoes are concerned (meaning the chance is low) but straight line winds will still be of concern along with some hail as well. Round 2 looks to be mainly a Cincy area on south thing too per this model. Anyway, we watch and wait like we always do.

[Bgoney]

As far as our first batch goes, I’m currently thinking maybe an isolated severe storm but not an organized widespread event, UNLESS new storms can fire in front of the current batch in the outflow as they enter our area, then I think it could be more widespread

[tpweather]

Heading to the game and though we may not get a severe storm with the first batch and extended period of moderate to sometimes heavy rain seems likely with some thunder and lightning. Will worry about the 2nd round when I get back but no doubt heavy rain once again and then see how the severe weather is setting up. The week ahead looks nice though with lower temps and humidity and maybe some lows in the upper 40's.

[tron777]

CAPE has now increased to 2000 - 2500 J/KG range for the Cincy Metro, NKY and SE counties.

[kywthrluvr]

Heading to Florence Y’alls to celebrate my son and his friend’s 30th birthdays. They did the opposite of the Reds and moved to a later start time-from 1:00 to 2:45. Hoping it works out. I’m watching Indy 500 coverage and they’re under a severe thunderstorm warning so the grandstands have been evacuated.

[Bgoney]

Heading to Florence Y’alls to celebrate my son and his friend’s 30th birthdays. They did the opposite of the Reds and moved to a later start time-from 1:00 to 2:45. Hoping it works out. I’m watching Indy 500 coverage and they’re under a severe thunderstorm warning so the grandstands have been evacuated.

Haven’t seen any warnings from KIND, but with all the lightning I’m sure the Track has there own warning criteria for fans

[kywthrluvr]

Heading to Florence Y’alls to celebrate my son and his friend’s 30th birthdays. They did the opposite of the Reds and moved to a later start time-from 1:00 to 2:45. Hoping it works out. I’m watching Indy 500 coverage and they’re under a severe thunderstorm warning so the grandstands have been evacuated.

Haven’t seen any warnings from KIND, but with all the lightning I’m sure the Track has there own warning criteria for fans

Yes and they need a lot of lead time to evacuate 350,000 people.

[tron777]

T-storm warning now out for most of the tri-state. It is in effect until 2:15pm for penny sized hail and winds to 70 mph! Nice bow echo in NKY per radar! The line is racing NE at 50 mph. T-storm watch also in effect until 8pm.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Mason County in northern Kentucky...
Robertson County in northern Kentucky...
Kenton County in northern Kentucky...
Boone County in northern Kentucky...
Bracken County in northern Kentucky...
Campbell County in northern Kentucky...
Northeastern Grant County in northern Kentucky...
Pendleton County in northern Kentucky...
Eastern Gallatin County in northern Kentucky...
Southwestern Butler County in southwestern Ohio...
Clermont County in southwestern Ohio...
Hamilton County in southwestern Ohio...
Brown County in southwestern Ohio...
Southwestern Adams County in south central Ohio...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 100 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles northeast of Madison to 8 miles north of
Georgetown, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Fairfield, Covington, Florence, Independence, Norwood,
Forest Park, Erlanger, Fort Thomas, Newport, Sharonville, Blue Ash,
Springdale, Reading, Montgomery, Harrison, North College Hill,
Maysville, Madeira, and Edgewood.

[tron777]

T-storm Watch info:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0316.html

[tron777]

I do not hear any thunder nor do I see any lightning. Wind is light right now but it will get cranking shortly as the line moves in. Sky is getting dark so you know it's closing in.