May 2024 Weather Discussion

[Trentonwx06]

I just checked the 6Z NAM and it's pretty slow with the whole thing for Sunday. Looks like a line of convection with the warm front passes thru IND around 5-6pm then the convection with the low / cold front, comes in by late evening. For us locally in Cincinnati, this could be primarily an overnight event for us. If the slower timing from the NAM is right, there should not be any issues getting the Indy 500 in. Models are models and that is just one models idea. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see how the early runs of the HRRR handles things. That will probably be more useful come Sunday morning anyway.

Thanks for confirming my thinking this morning, like I need the NAM to come true lol.

[MVWxObserver]

Wonder what the percentile chance (SPC) for tornadoes e.g. will be come Sun ...? That, at least for myself, is the biggest concern.

I saw a few days ago an article via Accuweather or Weather Underground where Ohio e.g. leads the country in tornadoes this year.

[tron777]

I just checked the 6Z NAM and it's pretty slow with the whole thing for Sunday. Looks like a line of convection with the warm front passes thru IND around 5-6pm then the convection with the low / cold front, comes in by late evening. For us locally in Cincinnati, this could be primarily an overnight event for us. If the slower timing from the NAM is right, there should not be any issues getting the Indy 500 in. Models are models and that is just one models idea. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see how the early runs of the HRRR handles things. That will probably be more useful come Sunday morning anyway.

Thanks for confirming my thinking this morning, like I need the NAM to come true lol.

LOL! No doubt... plus with the later arrival at night, that could potentially reduce the severe threat for us in Cincinnati also. Again, we need to see more data over the weekend for better confirmation. Baby steps...

[tron777]

Wonder what the percentile chance (SPC) for tornadoes e.g. will be come Sun ...? That, at least for myself, is the biggest concern.

I saw a few days ago an article via Accuweather or Weather Underground where Ohio e.g. leads the country in tornadoes this year.

That will start with tomorrow's Outlook since it will be Day 2.

[Bgoney]

Wonder what the percentile chance (SPC) for tornadoes e.g. will be come Sun ...? That, at least for myself, is the biggest concern.

I saw a few days ago an article via Accuweather or Weather Underground where Ohio e.g. leads the country in tornadoes this year.

CSU goes out a bit further with percentages. It’s up from yesterdays

IMG_1769.jpeg

[tron777]

Thanks Bgoney for posting that. I saw it posted on Facebook earlier this morning but I didn't get time to share it on our forum so again, thanks! From what I have read, the CSU Learning model, (pictured above) has been on a roll! It's verification scores have been excellent for the most part. So like I said earlier, it will get more interesting once we can see more hires data over the weekend. Is the 6Z NAM on to something or just "on something?" Usually, the NAM tends to overdo severe wx events so it's odd that the 6Z run had the later timing. As always, we shall see!

[tron777]

BG's video - Already in progress...

[tron777]

12Z NAM is still suggesting that the main show is in that 11pm to 1am range for us overnight Sun night.

[Bgoney]

12Z NAM is still suggesting that the main show is in that 11pm to 1am range for us overnight Sun night.

Some big time severe parameters from the NAM , from late afternoon through late evening. We’ll lose some cape if things hold off until dark but still looks to be in the 1500-2000 range, the rest of parameters still look ominous for supercells

[tron777]

12Z GFS wants to bring things in earlier with the warm front and with the late afternoon and evening convection. I think using models like the NAM and eventually the HRRR is the way to go versus a global model like the GFS. But anyway, we'll see how things trend as we get closer.

[Bgoney]

Hadn’t looked at the hi-res NAM until now . Needless to say it echos NAM severe parameters, but shows supercells developing late afternoon (5ish) in cvgland before an evolving squall line races in late evenin Sunday

[tron777]

Hadn’t looked at the hi-res NAM until now . Needless to say it echos NAM severe parameters, but shows supercells developing late afternoon (5ish) in cvgland before an evolving squall line races in late evenin Sunday

That sure is a wicked looking squall line too when the model ends at 8pm Sunday located over Central IN.

[tron777]

Good afternoon all... I made it home in one piece! YAY! As expected, the traffic is tough out there. Weatherwise... not much change. Isolated storms possible until we get to Sunday. If some of the guidance is right, storm coverage is scattered and the bulk of it comes Sun night into Memorial Day.

Tues onwards next week looks absolutely GORGEOUS! Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s with low humidity and plenty of sunshine! We may stay in the 60s on Wed for highs, at least the I-70 Crew anyway and Wed night, we could drop into the upper 40s! Enjoy!!!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 81, DAY 83 and CMH 84 today.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Looks like I may get a ground wetter this evening.

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

1954 100 La Porte La Porte IN 4161 8672 Public report of quarter size hail in La Porte. (IWX)

2005 100 La Porte La Porte IN 4161 8672 Corrects time of previous hail report from La Porte. Public report of quarter size hail in La Porte. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2055 UNK Montgomery IN 4013 8690 Corrected for updated address. Down tree across roadway. (IND)

2100 UNK 5 NW New Ross Montgomery IN 4001 8680 Trees and Powerlines down. (IND)

2200 UNK 3 SE Cutler Carroll IN 4044 8649 Hog barn damaged. (IND)

2210 UNK 4 S Deacon Cass IN 4058 8631 Report of powerlines down due to tree on E County Rd 1300 S. (IWX)

2210 UNK 3 S Deacon Cass IN 4059 8632 Several trees snapped and limbs down near a home on 12000 S CR 300 E. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2217 UNK 3 S Deacon Cass IN 4060 8632 Large tree branches down onto E Co Rd 1150 S (estimated 12 to 18 inches in diameter). (IWX)

2218 UNK 1 E Walton Cass IN 4066 8622 Emergency manager sent photos of a few snapped trees and large branches down on E State Road 218 just east of Walton. (IWX)

2230 UNK 2 W Burlington Carroll IN 4048 8643 Tree on house. Other trees in yard broken. (IND)

2248 UNK 1 W Frankfort Clinton IN 4029 8653 Report from mPING: 3-inch tree limbs broken; Power poles broken. (IND)

2330 UNK Hartford City Blackford IN 4045 8537 Report of small tree limbs down due to estimated 40 mph gusts. (IWX)

2333 59 2 ENE Nine Mile Allen IN 4098 8518 Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report from 2 ENE Nine Mile. ASOS station KFWA Fort Wayne International Airport. (IWX)

2350 100 1 SW Beech Grove Marion IN 3970 8610 Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.). (IND)

2355 100 3 E Southport Marion IN 3965 8606 Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.). (IND)

0000 125 3 E Southport Marion IN 3965 8606 Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.). (IND)

0005 100 2 ESE Beech Grove Marion IN 3970 8606 Reported noted a lot of quarter size hail and still hailing. (IND)

0015 UNK 4 WNW Cavett Van Wert OH 4096 8465 A 8X5 ft storage shed was destroyed by a possible gustnado along an outflow from thunderstorms. (IWX)

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Got a couple of hundredths here last night. CVG picked up 0.03" A slight chance for a t-storm today, with the best chance SE of Cincinnati. Tonight won't be so bad for those having cookouts or bonfires. It should be a nice evening! All eyes continue to be on Sunday. The enhanced risk has been bumped a little further to the NE to now include Cincinnati. 5% tornado, 30% wind, and 15% hail are the current threat hazards. We shall see! The warm front should come in during the early afternoon hours with some convection possible. Then we will get hit again overnight. For MD, tomorrow morning looks wet. Hoping things dry out for the afternoon.

Latest thinking from the boys for Sunday:

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday into Sunday night as a mid level trough moves from the
Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Embedded s/wvs or
MCVs rippling through the mean trough will help to act as
triggering mechanisms in the return flow that will be an
increasingly moist and unstable airmass. Uncertainty still
exists at this juncture for Sunday in terms of how one of those
s/wvs or MCVs will affect our forecast area. Looking at many
convection allowing models, some weaken the convection as it
moves into our area during the late morning/afternoon hours
while others try to hold the convection together as it hugs a
warm front trying to advance to the northeast. How this all
plays out will have an affect on what convection will do Sunday
evening/night and where overall severe weather will occur. At
this point, it appears that some of the convection will hold
together as it moves into our region, especially west. Some
strong to marginally severe storms may occur with this first
round. This feature has the potential, if strong enough, to
modulate the airmass by temporarily stabilizing the atmosphere
in its wake. How soon another mid level s/wv or MCV begins to
move east and interacts with a returning most/unstable airmass
with and an increasingly stronger wind field will all depend on
timing and spacing between the two entities. Right now, the SPC
seems to be thinking that enough airmass recovery across our
southwest would put this region in the highest risk for severe
(damaging winds the main threat with isolated large hail and
isolated tornadoes the secondary threats) for Sunday evening and
night, with less chances for severe farther north and east
where storms may be more elevated in nature. In addition to the
storms Sunday night, there will be a flood/flash flood risk
given pwats in the 1.50 to 1.75 range. At this time, will rely
on SPC to break down the HWO into different segments with the
southwestern CWFA having the highest threat based on the latest
model guidance. Highs on Sunday will range from the lower to mid
80s with lows Sunday night only dropping into the mid and upper
60s.

[tron777]

I checked the soundings from the 6Z NAM and it looked pretty concerning for wind and hail esp. Even a tornado threat too with winds trying to back around to the south at the surface. The 6Z HRRR keeps the activity with the warm front stronger so we don't destabilize quite as much for the overnight so the sounding was not very impressive. So that's the kicker right there. Pretty much what the boys said too in their overnight AFD posted above. Much uncertainty exists. We just won't know until we see how much convection we get with the warm frontal passage then go from there. By no means is this a slam dunk.

[tron777]

An update from the boys for the rest of your Saturday:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak cold front will push slowly east across our area today.
While the better upper level forcing will remain to our north,
as we destabilize through the afternoon, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of
the front. The best chance for these will be across our eastern
areas this afternoon. With some marginal deeper layer shear, a
few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, with the best
chance for this being across central Ohio on down through the
Scioto River Valley. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper
70s to the lower 80s.

[tron777]

Special video from BG, he is LIVE right now:

[tron777]

Nice model battle shaping up between the 12Z HRRR (keeping the warm frontal activity together, longer) versus the 12Z NAM which weakens it. The end result will be how strong the line will be for Sunday evening / overnight depending on which scenario plays out earlier in the day.

[Bgoney]

CSU has backed off a bit also from a probability standpoint. Severe parameters are still there but I think models are sensing a weaker cap and an earlier start for showers /storms and a bit less cape getting involved. Severe threat is definitely on the table still , just has been toned down a bit by models, for the moment . As many have mentioned it depends how today and tonight evolve with how bad tomorrow can be. If most of the morning and afternoon has limited activity for cape to build then the late evening squall line will be a doozy

[tron777]

Got the grass knocked down just in case we get a lot of rain so it's not a jungle by next weekend. Going to try and burn my big brush pile too. It's a collection of trimming the trees and such last Fall. It's been either too hot, too windy, or too wet so I have not been able to get it done. Hoping to do that today after I rest a bit in the A/C.