May 2024 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

The outlook for Sunday, Day 4 from the SPC:


day4prob.gif

As usual , how much convection dominates early in the day will determine how extensive severe chance will be. Looking at the parameters at this stage , I’m hoping we get plenty of early day showers, otherwise it could get ugly in our region

[tron777]

The outlook for Sunday, Day 4 from the SPC:


day4prob.gif

As usual , how much convection dominates early in the day will determine how extensive severe chance will be. Looking at the parameters at this stage , I’m hoping we get plenty of early day showers, otherwise it could get ugly in our region

Agreed. Timing always seems to be an issue for our region but that is a good thing as you mentioned. That is usually the case for us getting morning convection that ruins the set up for when we are at peak heating. Hires guidance will be interesting once we get closer to the event,

[tron777]

One thing that I continue to keep seeing on the models is a push of cooler air / below avg temps for the region towards the end of this month on into early June. We're talking highs in the low 70s with lows in the upper 50s. That is for Cincinnati. Could even see temps staying in the 60s and lows deep into the 50s (maybe a rural upper 40s?) for the I-70 Crew. This is part of the cool start to Met Summer I keep mentioning which we all need to enjoy before we start baking later on down the road.

[tpweather]

One thing that I continue to keep seeing on the models is a push of cooler air / below avg temps for the region towards the end of this month on into early June. We're talking highs in the low 70s with lows in the upper 50s. That is for Cincinnati. Could even see temps staying in the 60s and lows deep into the 50s (maybe a rural upper 40s?) for the I-70 Crew. This is part of the cool start to Met Summer I keep mentioning which we all need to enjoy before we start baking later on down the road.

Good Morning Les and great post. I agree about the cool start to Met Summer but then will the heat invade. Yes it may take a little time as much of the eastern USA has been wet this spring but I do believe we will have a hot summer overall. I was not sure just a few weeks back but plenty of things to say its going to get hot down the road. I just hope we don't go from plenty of rain to nothing in a short period of time because this kind of change tends to bring a sudden drought as vegetation as done well early and needs the water and then boom you turn of the faucets and everything seems to dry up quickly.

[tron777]

One thing that I continue to keep seeing on the models is a push of cooler air / below avg temps for the region towards the end of this month on into early June. We're talking highs in the low 70s with lows in the upper 50s. That is for Cincinnati. Could even see temps staying in the 60s and lows deep into the 50s (maybe a rural upper 40s?) for the I-70 Crew. This is part of the cool start to Met Summer I keep mentioning which we all need to enjoy before we start baking later on down the road.

Good Morning Les and great post. I agree about the cool start to Met Summer but then will the heat invade. Yes it may take a little time as much of the eastern USA has been wet this spring but I do believe we will have a hot summer overall. I was not sure just a few weeks back but plenty of things to say its going to get hot down the road. I just hope we don't go from plenty of rain to nothing in a short period of time because this kind of change tends to bring a sudden drought as vegetation as done well early and needs the water and then boom you turn of the faucets and everything seems to dry up quickly.

No doubt Tim and that is always my fear every summer lol This one is no different. Honestly, it has been a while since we've had the MCS Train during the summer months. Would love to see that occur, but at the same time, you can't bet on it happening either.

[tron777]

In the short term, the latest radar shows a scattered area of showers and t-storms approaching the area from the SW. Nothing severe but some folks will see some rain later on this morning.

[tpweather]

In the short term, the latest radar shows a scattered area of showers and t-storms approaching the area from the SW. Nothing severe but some folks will see some rain later on this morning.

Les leaving at 11am heading to Nashville. Maybe I get lucky and miss the morning rain. Nashville does not bode well over the next few days in regards to severe weather and at least heavy rain. They show more scattered storms today but on Friday they are expecting a nice line of storms in the afternoon that no doubt can bring severe weather including tornado's. Hopefully Saturday turns out well locally as the second wedding will be at Holy Cross and then Sunday another baseball game and that could be quite wet depending on timing. Glad to have the rainfall this time of year but can we have it at night. Enjoy the weekend and by Monday I may end up taking a long nap lol

[tron777]

In the short term, the latest radar shows a scattered area of showers and t-storms approaching the area from the SW. Nothing severe but some folks will see some rain later on this morning.

Les leaving at 11am heading to Nashville. Maybe I get lucky and miss the morning rain. Nashville does not bode well over the next few days in regards to severe weather and at least heavy rain. They show more scattered storms today but on Friday they are expecting a nice line of storms in the afternoon that no doubt can bring severe weather including tornado's. Hopefully Saturday turns out well locally as the second wedding will be at Holy Cross and then Sunday another baseball game and that could be quite wet depending on timing. Glad to have the rainfall this time of year but can we have it at night. Enjoy the weekend and by Monday I may end up taking a long nap lol

Have a good trip and a good time Tim with your family! Hopefully the weather will play nice with your plans. I'm sure there will be a disruption or two just like for us here at home locally. Unfortunately, that it how it goes sometimes when you're in an active pattern. Timing as well as location are always key as you know.

[MVWxObserver]

Have a great trip and time, Tim and family!

[tron777]

[tron777]

71 / 65 as of 12pm at CVG with a little sunshine trying to get thru the clouds. We have a little bit of CAPE now about 1000 J/KG and a little pocket of 50 knot shear over us. Looking at radar, Watching the next little batch moving NE into SE MO, now getting into SW ILL. We'll have to see how much that activity can develop as the afternoon wears on.

[tron777]

75 currently... Watching radar as it is trying to get a little more busy over SW IN.

[winterstormjoe]

75 currently... Watching radar as it is trying to get a little more busy over SW IN.

Les, I've noticed this bow on radar that's west of Bowling Green KY moving NE but may just affect northern KY in a few hours unless we can get some further development in southern IN?

[Bgoney]

I think models from yesterday did a good job with this evenings organized storms staying to our south , with just an isolated shower in our southern counties

[tron777]

75 currently... Watching radar as it is trying to get a little more busy over SW IN.

Les, I've noticed this bow on radar that's west of Bowling Green KY moving NE but may just affect northern KY in a few hours unless we can get some further development in southern IN?

We just didn't get quite enough instability to keep it going. They had more sun to the south which is where the best action is.

[tron777]

I think models from yesterday did a good job with this evenings organized storms staying to our south , with just an isolated shower in our southern counties

Agreed. I backed off in a few of my posts from earlier and went with scattered activity for today, tomorrow, and Sat. I think that is going to work out just fine. The main day for potential widespread action IMO still appears to be Sunday.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 77, DAY 79 and CMH 80 on Thurs.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Only expecting scattered coverage until we get to Sunday. All eyes are on Sunday now and the SPC has the enhanced risk further North and East to include our NKY counties. For us, I think we'll need to see what happens in the morning esp with the warm front then sometime in the evening into the overnight hours is when I believe our best coverage arrives. Could be a bumpy night!

day3otlk_0730.gif

day3prob_0730.gif

[tron777]

Dense fog advisory has been issued for all NKY counties until 10am. I did not see any on the drive into work from NKY.

..DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana and northeast and northern
Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

[Bgoney]

Much of Ohio/Indiana will be welcoming that rain by Sunday as by then it will have been a week since appreciable rain has fallen for a good chunk of that region

[tron777]

Much of Ohio/Indiana will be welcoming that rain by Sunday as by then it will have been a week since appreciable rain has fallen for a good chunk of that region

Very true, but it will also come at a price.... well potentially anyway.

[Bgoney]

Still 50/50 for the Indy500 atm. Looks like there will be windows of opportunity to get it in. I believe an official race is around a hundred miles or roughly 90 minutes. I think that is doable

[Trentonwx06]

Still 50/50 for the Indy500 atm. Looks like there will be windows of opportunity to get it in. I believe an official race is around a hundred miles or roughly 90 minutes. I think that is doable

Yes, need 101 laps completed to be an official race.
Last week it took 77 mins to dry the track.
It’s been a good 14 year run with no weather issues, see what happens.

[tron777]

Once we get into the hires model range probably by tomorrow, we should be able to see when the warm front is supposed to pass thru IND then how much of a dry window does that area see before the late afternoon / evening convection ahead of the surface low moves in.

[tron777]

I just checked the 6Z NAM and it's pretty slow with the whole thing for Sunday. Looks like a line of convection with the warm front passes thru IND around 5-6pm then the convection with the low / cold front, comes in by late evening. For us locally in Cincinnati, this could be primarily an overnight event for us. If the slower timing from the NAM is right, there should not be any issues getting the Indy 500 in. Models are models and that is just one models idea. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see how the early runs of the HRRR handles things. That will probably be more useful come Sunday morning anyway.