May 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Ended up with 0.31 though folks nearby got over a 1/2 inch. Sure some folks got little but that is the nature of these pieces of energy

[tron777]

CVG - 0.62"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.35"

I'm not at home mind you, but I would assume since I live in between the two reporting stations that I got probably around a 1/2". Perfect amount for the lawn and garden.

Clouds are breaking to the west so eventually, the sun will come back out to warm us back up. The question will be is where that boundary stalls for the late afternoon and evening re-development. The 12Z NAM has a couple of storms esp over NKY popping tonight but the bulk of it will be south of our local area. The 3KM NAM has a bit better coverage for the Cincy area versus the Operational but the best coverage and most intense storms are still well south. The 12Z HRRR has most of it SE of I-71 tonight as well.

Bottom line... the severe threat is reduced but not zero for this evening and tonight. However, the best chance will be for those locations S / SE of Cincy. Locations to the north, like our I-70 Crew, I am expecting to remain dry. Then, we'll see what happens for tomorrow. I think we'll get another complex esp for the Tri-state Area sometime late morning thru the afternoon hours. Hires models vary on timing.

[Pepper]

In reading post for Sunday's 500 race it isn't sounding to good so far any chances this will miss. I will be attending this year for the first time in years as my daughter was selected to be a Indy 500 princess and will be taking part in the pre-race festivities. I hope it stays dry for that at least lol

[Trentonwx06]

In reading post for Sunday's 500 race it isn't sounding to good so far any chances this will miss. I will be attending this year for the first time in years as my daughter was selected to be a Indy 500 princess and will be taking part in the pre-race festivities. I hope it stays dry for that at least lol

Back in 2019 they said be a complete washout and ended up being a 74 and sunny all day. Yes this year most likely different set up but there is still a chance to get it in. This system needs to get out the way then can focus on the weekend system.

[Pepper]

We will pray for sunny and 74 but doubt it. We went last weekend in for qualifications and the heat on the track was awful. We had a great time however.

[tron777]

In reading post for Sunday's 500 race it isn't sounding to good so far any chances this will miss. I will be attending this year for the first time in years as my daughter was selected to be a Indy 500 princess and will be taking part in the pre-race festivities. I hope it stays dry for that at least lol

Back in 2019 they said be a complete washout and ended up being a 74 and sunny all day. Yes this year most likely different set up but there is still a chance to get it in. This system needs to get out the way then can focus on the weekend system.

The models vary on the timing of the low pressure system. I'm with Jamie. It's a little too early to know if the race will be impacted. I've seen the timing range from the morning hours for a start time which would be bad to later in the afternoon which would be good.

[tpweather]

Timing will be key and if and yes a big if a low pressure is heading this way during the day on Sunday no doubt chances go up for rain and yes some storms as well. That may be a day where it does not matter if you had any sun during the day as a much wider band of showers and thundershowers are possible. Will be on here very little over the next week as activity after activity is happening which is usually not the case. Will be watching for severe weather in Nashville over the next two days as well. Hope everyone has a great Memorial Day Weekend and hopefully what rain we get happens in the overnight hours.

[tron777]

Timing will be key and if and yes a big if a low pressure is heading this way during the day on Sunday no doubt chances go up for rain and yes some storms as well. That may be a day where it does not matter if you had any sun during the day as a much wider band of showers and thundershowers are possible. Will be on here very little over the next week as activity after activity is happening which is usually not the case. Will be watching for severe weather in Nashville over the next two days as well. Hope everyone has a great Memorial Day Weekend and hopefully what rain we get happens in the overnight hours.

Safe travels Tim! Hope you and the family have a memorable and great time! We'll be here when you get back.

[tron777]

At this time, most of the action is nowhere close to our forecast area. We will have to see what happens, if anything, by this evening. 79 / 69 as of 1pm at CVG. We have some CAPE but wind shear is lacking as well as lapse rates.

[MVWxObserver]

In reading post for Sunday's 500 race it isn't sounding to good so far any chances this will miss. I will be attending this year for the first time in years as my daughter was selected to be a Indy 500 princess and will be taking part in the pre-race festivities. I hope it stays dry for that at least lol

Hey Pepper,

Congratulations to you, your daughter, and family on her being selected the 2024 Indy 500 princess! Prayerfully the weather will be at least halfway decent.

My Dad went to the 2011 Indy 500 as part of a grade school reunion from Anderson, IN outing with some friends. He was born and raised in Anderson but had never been to an Indy 500 until that year. He brought me back a souvenir race t-shirt which I still have and wear from time to time. I also have an Indy 500 history chronology book of races and events.

My Dad has a younger sister named Neva who is a lifelong Anderson resident and my sister and some cousins of ours have had a long time joke that if my Aunt Neva had married Indy racer Tom Sneva, she'd be Neva Sneva!

[MVWxObserver]

Hey Tim,

Have a great trip!

My nephew and his wife reside in Columbia, TN and her folks reside in Nashville.

Both G'ville and DAY are at 82.

[Bgoney]

Still early , but models have remained very consistent for a severe threat for Sunday. Here’s what SPC is saying atm,


Day 5/Sun - Ozarks to the Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys
A synoptically concerning pattern is evident on Sunday across a broad region of the central U.S. The upper trough from the Day 4/Sat period will continue to shift east across the Midwest on Sunday. This will allow strong mid/upper southwesterly flow to overspread the region as a deepening surface low moves from MO toward Lake Michigan. Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO/the Ozarks vicinity. Ahead of this activity, a rapidly moistening boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints is expected to envelop much of the Mid-MS/OH/TN Valleys. Strong destabilization and favorable vertical shear, along with an eastward-progressing cold front will support both supercell storms, and possibly a developing QLCS, capable of all hazards. While details regarding morning convection and storm mode remain somewhat uncertain, higher-end severe potential appears possible with this pattern across portions of the region from midday into the nighttime hours.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

Here's the MD discussion....

Mesoscale Discussion 0896
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...Southern Indiana into north-central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 222018Z - 222215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and large hail are possible with storms
that develop along the cold front. Timing of development and storm
coverage are not certain. A watch is possible this afternoon as
convective trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...Heating behind earlier convection associated with an
MCV has allowed the airmass ahead of the cold front to destabilize.
Cumulus along the front have become more vertically developed,
particularly in southeastern Indiana. Winds are quite veered in the
vicinity of the front and convergence is weak. Some modest mid-level
ascent from the Upper Midwest shortwave trough may be needed to
initiate thunderstorms later this afternoon. Other than timing,
storm coverage is somewhat uncertain as well. Storms that do develop
will be capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail. A watch is
possible this afternoon, but timing and spatial extent are not
clear.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 83, DAY 86 and CMH 82 today.

[Wxlrnr]

FWIW, picked up 0.6 inches this morning along with a lot thunder and lightning.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A relative minimum in convection is expected through the bulk
of the afternoon hours. CAMs continue to be fairly meager with
any initiation during peak heating hours when CAPE and lapse
rates (particularly in the lower levels) will be more conducive
for strong/severe storm potential. Thus, while the afternoon
period will still have to be monitored for any CI, it does not
appear favorable. If any storms do happen to materialize, the
primary threats would be localized downbursts and large hail -
wind shear is not strong/favorable enough to warrant a tornado
concern.

There is a better signal in CAMs for convection during the
evening and overnight period, with slightly better forcing.
Minor improvement to wind shear values expected as well, which
could lead to a better window of severe potential mainly during
the late evening and early overnight period. However, this
potential will likely still be limited given the lack of strong,
dynamic forcing. Additionally, the cold front that tries to work
through our CWA becomes pretty washed out and thus doesn`t
provide the best surface mechanism for organized convection.

Storm activity will begin to wane around the middle of the
night, mainly around 12AM - 2AM. A few light showers may linger
a bit longer, particularly in portions of central OH down
through northern KY.

[snowbo]

In reading post for Sunday's 500 race it isn't sounding to good so far any chances this will miss. I will be attending this year for the first time in years as my daughter was selected to be a Indy 500 princess and will be taking part in the pre-race festivities. I hope it stays dry for that at least lol

Hey Pepper,

Congratulations to you, your daughter, and family on her being selected the 2024 Indy 500 princess! Prayerfully the weather will be at least halfway decent.

My Dad went to the 2011 Indy 500 as part of a grade school reunion from Anderson, IN outing with some friends. He was born and raised in Anderson but had never been to an Indy 500 until that year. He brought me back a souvenir race t-shirt which I still have and wear from time to time. I also have an Indy 500 history chronology book of races and events.

My Dad has a younger sister named Neva who is a lifelong Anderson resident and my sister and some cousins of ours have had a long time joke that if my Aunt Neva had married Indy racer Tom Sneva, she'd be Neva Sneva!

Hey Eric, my dad was a mechanic on an Indy car for four years starting in 1948. That car, the "Iddings Special", is now at the Garst Museum in Greenville.

[tron777]

Radar has a little activity trying to push in from the SW. It's like the little engine that could.

[tron777]

That line is filling in nicely. We should get a bit of rain / t-storms this evening over the next hour or two. The front is moving slowly as is the line itself.

[MVWxObserver]

1723 UNK 1 N Franklin Furnace Scioto OH 3865 8285 Numerous trees and large branches down in the Franklin Furnace area. (ILN)

1724 UNK Franklin Furnace Scioto OH 3862 8285 Large tree uprooted ... damaging house on Walburn Ave. (ILN)

2251 UNK 1 ENE Scottsburg Scott IN 3869 8577 Multiple reports of tree damage from 2nd Street and Washington Street within Scottsburg city limits. At least one power line down in the road as well. (LMK)

2254 UNK Cannelton Perry IN 3791 8674 Tree down on a house. (LMK)

2257 UNK 2 E Tell City Perry IN 3795 8672 Tree down over Chestnut Grove Road. (LMK)

2257 UNK 2 E Tell City Perry IN 3795 8673 Tree down on State Road 237 just south of Mozart Street. (LMK)

2309 UNK 2 NE Vienna Scott IN 3867 8574 Tree down at Lovers Ln and Prewitt Ln. (LMK)

2329 100 Potsdam Miami OH 3996 8442 (ILN)

2340 100 2 N Tipp City Miami OH 4000 8418 (ILN)

[MVWxObserver]

In reading post for Sunday's 500 race it isn't sounding to good so far any chances this will miss. I will be attending this year for the first time in years as my daughter was selected to be a Indy 500 princess and will be taking part in the pre-race festivities. I hope it stays dry for that at least lol

Hey Pepper,

Congratulations to you, your daughter, and family on her being selected the 2024 Indy 500 princess! Prayerfully the weather will be at least halfway decent.

My Dad went to the 2011 Indy 500 as part of a grade school reunion from Anderson, IN outing with some friends. He was born and raised in Anderson but had never been to an Indy 500 until that year. He brought me back a souvenir race t-shirt which I still have and wear from time to time. I also have an Indy 500 history chronology book of races and events.

My Dad has a younger sister named Neva who is a lifelong Anderson resident and my sister and some cousins of ours have had a long time joke that if my Aunt Neva had married Indy racer Tom Sneva, she'd be Neva Sneva!

Hey Eric, my dad was a mechanic on an Indy car for four years starting in 1948. That car, the "Iddings Special", is now at the Garst Museum in Greenville.

Way cool, Bo!

[tron777]

Good morning all! It was pretty noisy here for a bit in that 8:30-9:30pm window last night. More bark then bite. CVG only picked up 0.04" of rain and the Boone Co mesonet site got around 0.25". I was as usual right in between and got around a tenth of an inch.

For today, expect scattered storms with a 50 / 50 chance you'll get wet. Fri and Sat I think look to be scattered too. Sunday is the day to watch as we've been saying for more widespread coverage as well as severe wx too. SPC has a marginal risk out just S of the Metro for today and for all areas tomorrow. Slight risk on Fri is off to our West. Nothing outlooked for Sat but by Sunday, we are still outlooked in that 15% area. We shall see, it is still a ways off to figure out the timing as most of you have outdoor plans as well as the big race at The Brickyard. For MD itself, it will depend on how Sunday goes. If Sunday isn't too bad, then MD will have more coverage. If Sunday produces esp in the overnight, then MD may not be too bad at all. The chances continue into next week too. Active, active, active....

[Bgoney]

Totals so far this week. Once you get away from counties bordering the river , not much in the way of soaking rains.

IMG_1764.png

[tron777]

The outlook for Sunday, Day 4 from the SPC:

day4prob.gif