May 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

I sure hope the 6Z GFS is wrong with regards to the upcoming weekend. Rain chances both days from a slow moving low pressure system is being shown.

[winterstormjoe]

I sure hope the 6Z GFS is wrong with regards to the upcoming weekend. Rain chances both days from a slow moving low pressure system is being shown.

Also, didn't want to get ahead of myself here, but after that it looks rather active again for next week which would take us into Memorial day weekend. Just wish we could see a week's worth of dry and warm weather for the farmers and those who need to get things done outside. Probably be complaining on the other side once we get into a long period of dryness needing some rain!

[Bgoney]

HRRR , for the moment, has shifted those 3-4”+ amounts to SE Indiana. Theme here from the HRRR is somewhere near Cvgland there is going to be a gulley washer

IMG_1747.jpeg

[rhodesman88]

I sure hope the 6Z GFS is wrong with regards to the upcoming weekend. Rain chances both days from a slow moving low pressure system is being shown.

Yea, I really have my eye on Friday as we have an outdoor show in Maineville! Looks to be scattered showers atm

[tron777]

I sure hope the 6Z GFS is wrong with regards to the upcoming weekend. Rain chances both days from a slow moving low pressure system is being shown.

Also, didn't want to get ahead of myself here, but after that it looks rather active again for next week which would take us into Memorial day weekend. Just wish we could see a week's worth of dry and warm weather for the farmers and those who need to get things done outside. Probably be complaining on the other side once we get into a long period of dryness needing some rain!

I don't see the active pattern ending for May that is for sure. In fact, I've seen CB on his blog posts posting the Euro Weeklies / Seasonal models and if they are correct, the wet pattern continues well into June too. Of course we will take that with a grain of salt mind you, but that is what it is showing.

[tron777]

HRRR , for the moment, has shifted those 3-4”+ amounts to SE Indiana. Theme here from the HRRR is somewhere near Cvgland there is going to be a gulley washer




IMG_1747.jpeg

Just checked local radar and you can see the bands of precip coming in out ahead of the very slow moving low pressure system. I can now see why that model is showing what it has been showing.

[tron777]

I sure hope the 6Z GFS is wrong with regards to the upcoming weekend. Rain chances both days from a slow moving low pressure system is being shown.

Yea, I really have my eye on Friday as we have an outdoor show in Maineville! Looks to be scattered showers atm

I have my eye on Friday also. I wanted to do a little fishing after work. It's not looking too good per the 12Z GFS anyway.

[MVWxObserver]

Good morning folks! A few scattered showers are around this morning but the best action will be this afternoon and evening as we've discussed. We will see more action overnight as well as on Wed. Some folks could pick up 1-2" of rain during this time frame. Others may only see a half inch. A few spots could see more then 2". You know how it goes with t-storms. Could we see a strong to perhaps even a severe storm this afternoon / evening? IMO it will depend on what happens today as far as clouds and / or showers go. We will keep an eye on the SPC meso page just in case. Trev has been all over this so we'll see how it goes. The threat is low as he has mentioned.

For Thurs, I have been going with a dry day as we are in between systems. ILN has a small chance in the afternoon so we'll see on that one. Next system is certainly due in by Friday, esp in the afternoon and evening with more rain and t-storms. This could linger into Sat now unfortunately. Sunday looks to be dry at this time. As we kick off next week, Monday looks good.

For temps... Low 70s today and Wed, upper 70s by Thurs - Sat then 80ish for Sunday on into next week. Fairly seasonal for May as Tim and I have previously discussed.

SPC added a 1/5 for Cincinnati and points south today so they are now in agreement with my forecast. My 1/5 risk area goes a little further north than theirs, though.

Kudos to you, bro, as you called it ahead this time of the SPC guys and gals!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 78 and both DAY / CMH 80 on Mon.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and almost made through a round of golf without rain. Around .20 so far at CVG. Expect the radar to become busy later this evening and overnight as moisture from the Tn Valley works its way into the area. Still going 1-2 for most folks before all is said and done and still watching for any higher amounts but just a tad to early to know if and where that will be . Dry day Thursday and then more rain Friday and maybe early Saturday. Still looks busy next week with more chances of rainfall. Just the opposite of last year in terms of rainfall during the spring and hopefully this will at least help in keeping the heat at bay somewhat early in the summer season.

[tron777]

Only 65 for today at CVG and in my hood due to the persistent clouds / light rain most of the day. Much, much cooler then even I expected since I had the low 70s. 1002 MB low is now over Paducah with a severe t-storm watch down in TN ahead of the low. We only have 500 J/KG of CAPE and 30 knots of bulk shear so I don't think severe wx will be an issue for us. (Watch as I say that, something will pop LOL)

Anyway, looking at the local radar and there are a few storms off to the West / SW so we'll see what happens as the evening wears on. Tim's above post has us covered nicely so that's about it for me as far as this post goes right now.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 65, DAY 67 and CMH 69 today.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Another rainy morning in progress for parts of the area including the Tri-state. 0.32" so far at CVG for the event total. Glad to see the HRRR was dead wrong. We shall see how much we can muster up today! Thurs is still dry but Fri looks like another wet one esp in the afternoon and evening. Sat is looking more wet now too but still hope we can get in a dry Sunday and Monday before POPS return by Tues of next week. No changes to the temp forecast other then we could start to put together another string of 80s by Sunday on into next week.

[Trevor]

Last part of May and into June has major severe potential for the Central US. We will likely get in on some of the action as well. Been noticing this on the models for a while now. Could be a wicked period coming up especially west of our region.

[Bgoney]

Good morning folks! Another rainy morning in progress for parts of the area including the Tri-state. 0.32" so far at CVG for the event total. Glad to see the HRRR was dead wrong. We shall see how much we can muster up today! Thurs is still dry but Fri looks like another wet one esp in the afternoon and evening. Sat is looking more wet now too but still hope we can get in a dry Sunday and Monday before POPS return by Tues of next week. No changes to the temp forecast other then we could start to put together another string of 80s by Sunday on into next week.

Those 2-3” amounts stayed well to our west yesterday/overnight. Judging how radar is shaping up this morning, some of those amounts will be much closer to ILNs FA

IMG_1751.png

[tron777]

Last part of May and into June has major severe potential for the Central US. We will likely get in on some of the action as well. Been noticing this on the models for a while now. Could be a wicked period coming up especially west of our region.

We will most likely get the leftovers as per our usual. We'll see though, because as you know it's all about the timing.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Another rainy morning in progress for parts of the area including the Tri-state. 0.32" so far at CVG for the event total. Glad to see the HRRR was dead wrong. We shall see how much we can muster up today! Thurs is still dry but Fri looks like another wet one esp in the afternoon and evening. Sat is looking more wet now too but still hope we can get in a dry Sunday and Monday before POPS return by Tues of next week. No changes to the temp forecast other then we could start to put together another string of 80s by Sunday on into next week.

Those 2-3” amounts stayed well to our west yesterday/overnight. Judging how radar is shaping up this morning, some of those amounts will be much closer to ILNs FA




IMG_1751.png

Your post made me look and no doubt! It'll be very close for our western counties for sure,

[tpweather]

Good Morning and yes the heavier rains stayed to the west and south as well with Lexington heading towards 2 inches. Overnight the rains were not as widespread as I thought would happen and the further north and east the lesser amounts occurred. Still will have some rain today and there are a few bands that have plenty of rain but not widespread. If you get under one of those bands for a few hours no doubt your totals really go up but if you stay away from those rain totals much less. Models sometimes have problems especially when there are these systems that have tons of energy and moisture but sometimes spreads the energy over a greater area than sometimes happens like overnight. Of course by midnight if you were awake you can adjust the forecast as things develop. Good thing we did get a nice light rain which once again soaked into the ground

[tpweather]

Last part of May and into June has major severe potential for the Central US. We will likely get in on some of the action as well. Been noticing this on the models for a while now. Could be a wicked period coming up especially west of our region.

Trev this is a great post and one I have been thinking to myself over the past several days as the upcoming pattern has the chance for some severe weather. Why is the question an first the heat will start to build and with that dew points should have no problem getting to 70 and above. Second the hot and dry air in the southwest will try and move eastward and getting that dry air involve is nice for severe and yes tornado activity. Third a strong push of cooler air in the northern plains with plenty of energy as well. Getting these 3 items is like baking a cake and when they come together you need to be careful and not leave it in the oven to long because it will explode sooner or later.

[tron777]

SPC has a marginal risk clipping our extreme SW counties for this coming Friday (Day 3).

[tron777]

Flood advisory issued from the boys for Boone, Grant, and Gallatin co's in NKY until 10:15am ET.

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...The following counties, in northern Kentucky, Boone,
Gallatin and Grant.

* WHEN...Until 1015 AM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Some low-water crossings may become impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 715 AM EDT, radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and
2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of
0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible.
- Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Warsaw, Glencoe,
Corinth, Sparta, Stewartsville, Twin Bridges, Elliston,
Sherman, Holbrook, Munk, Lawrenceville, Ryle, Northcutt,
Cherry Grove, Verona, Napoleon and Williamstown Lake.

[tron777]

he National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
South Central Boone County in northern Kentucky...
Eastern Gallatin County in northern Kentucky...
Northwestern Grant County in northern Kentucky...

* Until 1115 AM EDT.

* At 802 AM EDT, radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
2 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts
of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that may experience flash flooding include...
Ryle, US Routes 42 and 127 at State Route 562, Elliston, Napoleon,
Munk, Steele Bottom and Verona.

[tpweather]

Barrow,Alaska expected to get above 32 today. Spring has sprung lol. Of course on the western coast of Alaska winter continues with blizzard warnings and some decent snow with 3-7 inches expected for the Nome area.

[tron777]

Most of the rain that prompted the FFW's in NKY missed my hood and CVG (not complaining lol) Latest thinking from the boys for the rest of today and into this evening:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
Recent update adjusted high temperatures today to be within 7-8
degrees of morning low/current temperatures. Diurnal yesterday
over much of the forecast area was 5-6 degrees (much more in the
east where it was clear and dropped a good bit lower than the
rest of the CWA). Believe that today will be similar but was
hesitant to drop the forecast by more than 4-5 degrees which was
the resultant temperature adjustment.

Additionally, used a model blend of CAPE values and adjusted
thunderstorm chances based on increasing values. Did not want to
have much if any thunder northwest of I-71, but the instability
seemed to push at least a slight chance over most of CWA with
exception of far northwest portions. Precip will diminish
rapidly in the evening and exit from the northwest as well. A
few lingering showers are noted by CAM models through about 10
PM. Did not adjust pops/wx by any significance this evening but
think that future updates will speed up the diminishing nature
of showers in the late day and evening, of course based on
updated models used in the afternoon forecast package.

[tron777]

Sorry all for the lack of me posting sometimes. My workload is increasing and it usually does this time of year and throughout the summer months. The customer I support hires a lot of summer interns my team gets a ton more tickets as a result. We'll slowly simmer down come Fall and be back to normal by then.

Anyway... weather wise, 70 as of 2pm at CVG with cloudy skies. I saw a peak of the sun for about 2 mins earlier here in Mason. It looks like the sky could open up about anytime when I look out the office window. Radar shows scattered showers / storms rotating around a large upper low that is pretty much right over the region. We do have some CAPE but absolutely zero wind shear (along with poor lapse rates) so I am not expecting severe wx or anything like that. This is also why the coverage is more scattered and not widespread. As is usually the case, some folks will get hit and others won't. It's just the way it goes with this set up. Once the low moves away, we are looking good for tomorrow before our next slow moving low comes in to impact us Friday and Saturday. Hopefully for a dry Sunday as stated earlier so we'll see how that goes when we get closer for those with weekend plans.