May 2024 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

Awesome Ang!

I don't know if we have any posters in the Reily Township area of Butler Co, but I believe a possible tornado went thru there and ILN will be doing a storm damage survey in that area today.

Heading home from Cincy (Clifton) on Wed afternoon after a routine appt I had at UC Health, my Dad, while we were passing through Seven Mile saw a downed tree.

I hope your appointment went well Bro!

Thank you very much for asking Bro! I got a very favorable report re my liver PTL!

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/we-need ... 657IV3ANQ/

One of the areas in Greenville that took a heavy hit was our beautiful city park e.g.

[dce]

Some decent scattered storms for the I-70 Crew... Dayton Metro may see some beneficial rains here shortly. Just had a few showers on the way home from work, nothing major. A few sprinkles here at home, now the sun is back out. 72 so far for my high temp today.

About 1.6 inches in my gauge from last night and today. Like Bo, I was glad that we did not miss out on beneficial rains up here on I-70.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 73 and both DAY / CMH 71 today.

[Bgoney]

.60” in 20 minutes

[MVWxObserver]

2307 UNK 1 NW Chillicothe Ross OH 3934 8299 Time estimated based on radar. Trees down on Church Street and Carlisle Place in Chillicothe. (ILN)

2346 UNK 2 ENE Mount Orab Brown OH 3905 8389 Tree and large limbs down. Wooden fence blown over. (ILN)

[tron777]

Good morning all and awesome news for our Out East and I-70 Crew posters! Glad to see everyone pretty much has cashed in now. A break for today with temps 65 to 70 then we get a front for tomorrow but this is not a big deal for rainfall amounts or duration. Then a wonderful Mother's Day with highs in the low 70s! Lows in the 40s the next couple of nights. I think Monday should be dry until late in the day when scattered storms reappear. We go likely for POPS again for Tues into Wed of next week as more bouts of heavy rain look like a good bet. Looks like another big rain maker towards the end of next week also. It's too early to talk about severe wx prospects but this time of year, we all know to keep that one eye open.

[tron777]

I picked up a nice downpour too before I went to bed last night. Totals from that action:

CVG - 0.27"
Me - 0.12"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.01"

[tron777]

The boys have a complete listing now of all of the storm related damage and reports from the last severe wx outbreak. It looks like 12 tornadoes occurred. Five EF0's, five EF1's and two EF-2's! That is very significant for our region IMO.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20240507

[tpweather]

Good Morning just 0.02 from last night. Les has got the extended forecast laid out in great fashion so I will talk a little about the continue stormy pattern not just for us but many in the eastern half of the USA. Really started in January where the southeast and east coast dealt with plenty of rain and then in April the plains started receiving plenty of rain which switched to the Ohio Valley in the past 10 days or so. Looking ahead the OV along with the east coast and southeast are expecting another wet period. This is great news and especially to see the states near the GOM getting more rainfall because by this time of year they are sometimes in the summer mode which is only a isolated storm here and there.

The models are forecasting the changeover from El Nino to La Nina this summer but does this mean a hot and dry summer. I not sold either way and at the moment with tons of vegetation over the eastern half of the country hard to build up the heat and the best place for that at the moment is in the southwest. We know in summer patterns form as well and heat looks for areas that are drier than normal to try and take hold. Again we just heading into mid-May so at least a month before we can start predicting a hot or cool summer but during the next 30 days of so we can start gathering information and if the wet pattern continues I believe some of the models that are predicting a hot summer may need to trim that down especially early in the summer season. This could still end up being a hot summer but it may be on the back end.

[tron777]

Nice post Tim! May is certainly looking to remain active and with shots of cool air coming in from time to time. No big heat in other words and I am certainly expecting no 90s for this month. My original call for the summer was to see a hot and drier then normal for rain, but not to the extent that the internet Mets would lead you to believe. "This is going to be the hottest summer on record, blah blah blah". No, I did not forecast that! I'm all for adjusting my forecast to be cooler, but with the warm oceans, a -PDO, and the developing La Nina, I will keep the hot and drier call going for the time being.

Speaking of the 90s, don't forget folks to enter the contest before the end of May. Eric has been the first to enter and I thank him for that.

[tron777]

Clouds are finally breaking up a bit here in Mason. The sun is still blocked, but you can see quite a bit of blue sky mixed in. Visible shows that we should see increasing amounts of sunshine as the day wears on. Much drier air in place too with dews in the upper 40s at the moment and a nice northerly wind. IMO, not a bad day at all!

[Bgoney]

Plenty of saturated soils for a good chunk of the region , so count me out of the it can keep raining club. It’s wasted water until we can dry out . Virtually been a whole week now that farmers haven’t been able to get into the fields, and not much hope for that to change anytime soon , so the upcoming weeks are crucial for a dry spell for them to commence planting

[tron777]

In addition to the above... the cooler temps will also help to keep the moisture in the ground longer. BTW, my comments for let's keep the rain going is purely an IMBY perspective. I totally understand that the farmers absolutely need a dry spell to get their crops in. The end result of this pattern could certainly mean higher veggie prices at the grocery store (what else is new in that regard). But anyway, I just wanted to clarify my own personal reasoning for that statement.

[tron777]

Here is CB's blog post from overnight. It is more for Kentucky mind you, but you'll get the basic idea. Three items of interest in the blog post. The first, is a map of 48 hour rainfall amounts from all of the KY Mesonet sites. The second, is a rainfall accumulation map over the last 30 days. The last is a map since January 1st.


https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=64998

[tpweather]

Here is CB's blog post from overnight. It is more for Kentucky mind you, but you'll get the basic idea. Three items of interest in the blog post. The first, is a map of 48 hour rainfall amounts from all of the KY Mesonet sites. The second, is a rainfall accumulation map over the last 30 days. The last is a map since January 1st.


https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=64998

Les I saw his post and though he is one to go sort of overboard especially on winter weather but he made one post about how the drought index is what we call a joke. I have always thought the drought index is terrible and leans towards drought conditions way too often. First of all I have never seen a long term drought (more than 1 year) in our area. The short term drought( less than 3 months) happens from time to time and is no big concern imo. To me a long term drought is one that has lasted more than 1 year and is 20p/c below normal in rainfall for the entire time. Short term droughts happen especially in the summer and early fall but these are very common and not something out of the ordinary.

We just live in an area that has many influences and long term drought very hard to get. So that is my 2 cents worth and see better than I hear so the folks may say we are in a drought but my eyes usually tell me a different story. Funny with the oceans being warmer over the past few decades this means more water vapor to help with rainfall. I believe the amount of folks on earth is nearing 9 billion and sure we need to feed so many more folks but its not the weather for the most part but governments that tend to starve their people. We have so much land that can be used for farming and that has expanded and we need to use this to feed more folks. We don't need government oversight which almost always is a bad call.

Earth has tons of resources and we just get out of the way. 9 billion people sounds big but I believe its one of the islands in the pacific and I forgot which one but we could have all 9 billion folks stand next to each other and still have room on the island. Mother Nature is leading the way like always and though you may have times that are drier,hotter,colder,etc she does end up balancing things out. Can we be better at keeping the earth in good shape and sure we can and believe me air pollution in the USA is so much better than say 50 years ago but countries that started late in the Industrial age like India and China are way behind in keeping the air clear but are usually the first to complain.

Don't forget to pay your carbon tax and what the hell is that all about. Love when folks make up stuff and then prosper (Al Gore) to just name one person.

[tron777]

I agree Tim! Even during the drought of 2007 when we had the hottest August on record for Cincinnati as an example, it was still short term drought as we had a very active late fall and winter season with numerous cutters! So the rain came back in other words as it always does. I could name plenty of other examples, but that one popped into my head first.

[tron777]

[MVWxObserver]

The boys have a complete listing now of all of the storm related damage and reports from the last severe wx outbreak. It looks like 12 tornadoes occurred. Five EF0's, five EF1's and two EF-2's! That is very significant for our region IMO.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20240507

Hi Les,

My folks and I took a driving "tour" of some of the damage in north Greenville this morning. Saw a few roofs with tarps covering parts of them including a restaurant. Trees in various statuses, split, snapped off in the middle or top and some uprooted. Some crews out and about and closed off routes, too. Passed part of the city park from a main thoroughfare and trees snapped off at the trunk or uprooted in the same direction on the park grounds. Always interesting is Ma Nature and the behavior of such storms. A local museum also had tree damage in spots on its property.

I read recently at some site that nationwide so far there's been a total of 670 tornadoes in 2024!

[tron777]

The boys have a complete listing now of all of the storm related damage and reports from the last severe wx outbreak. It looks like 12 tornadoes occurred. Five EF0's, five EF1's and two EF-2's! That is very significant for our region IMO.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20240507

Hi Les,

My folks and I took a driving "tour" of some of the damage in north Greenville this morning. Saw a few roofs with tarps covering parts of them including a restaurant. Trees in various statuses, split, snapped off in the middle or top and some uprooted. Some crews out and about and closed off routes, too. Passed part of the city park from a main thoroughfare and trees snapped off at the trunk or uprooted in the same direction on the park grounds. Always interesting is Ma Nature and the behavior of such storms. A local museum also had tree damage in spots on its property.

I read recently at some site that nationwide so far there's been a total of 670 tornadoes in 2024!

Wow! Reminds me of some similar scenes we saw in the Day Heights area around my Brother's Hood when they got whacked a few years ago. The tops of most of the big trees, including pine trees were snapped off including some in my Brother's yard. There was damage to the kids playset too that my Brother had to fix. The worst of the damage we saw was near Goshen off of Wolfpen-Pleasant Rd as far as structural damage was concerned.

It absolutely has been an active spring across the country as you mentioned. The SPC keeps track of those stats and you can go here, if interested, to check it out.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

[tron777]

Some better news guys with regards to Saturday. The best chance for showers will be in the morning hours. The afternoon should see skies clearing out, but breezy. With regards to coverage and rainfall amounts, it still looks to be on the light side. In fact the 12Z GFS is pretty much dry for NKY and only has very light rain for folks north of the river. The "heavier" totals will be as one works north bound in our forecast area but still, for most folks, it's not going to be a huge deal at all. After a cool start, Mother's Day continues to look wonderful especially in the afternoon hours. Hope all can enjoy their day with Mom, or if you are a Mom yourself, Mother Nature is cooperating with you this year.

[tpweather]

Just looking around the country and the only winter storm warning is in Hawaii.

[tron777]

Just looking around the country and the only winter storm warning is in Hawaii.

On top of the Summit.... always a classic spot for WSW's and Blizzard warnings as well.

[tron777]

The wind has calmed down IMBY and it's really turned out to be a nice evening! Got the grill going with a baked potato, then it'll be time to throw a ribeye on. The beer is always cold too.

[Angelika]

Amazing! We went north of Dayton to see the aurora borealis. It did not disappoint.