May 2024 Weather Discussion

[BookNerdCarp]

1.38 with yesterday and last night storms

[tron777]

1.38 with yesterday and last night storms

Excellent Matt! Glad to see that you finally cashed in as well.

[Angelika]

2.5" here for me in Fairfield.

[tron777]

Awesome Ang!

I don't know if we have any posters in the Reily Township area of Butler Co, but I believe a possible tornado went thru there and ILN will be doing a storm damage survey in that area today.

[mikeyp]

2.14" of rain! This has been a wet spring!

[tron777]

Some good news.... SPC has pushed the greatest severe risk even further south for this evening. For AV Land, the enhanced risk is now well south of our forecast area and the southern half of our area is under the slight risk with a marginal risk for the northern half. This means that the warm front may indeed stay to our south and thus, the surface low should do the same. That would leave us with a more strati form look to the rainfall with perhaps some embedded t-storms. Not sure yet if this means that the I-70 Crew could actually miss out and Cincy Land gets clipped by the heavier rainfall (ala 6Z NAM solution) but the outlook from the SPC is encouraging. 12Z HRRR is in and it's pretty much like the 6Z NAM that I have already mentioned.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and received 1.11 inches last night so the total since Saturday is 3.88. I hate to say turn of the faucet because you never when its coming back on but would be nice to see a week of dry weather or at least minor rain events. Glad to see many folks getting rain and today so far is beautiful out with sun and the humidity is not bad so hopefully some drying will happen. Have not look at much for this evening but it sounds promising from the posts this morning.

[snowbo]

Checking in with exactly 3” in the last 24hrs. By far the highest 24hr period of qpf for mby in many years.

Awesome! Glad your area was able to cash in for a change. It's been a long time coming for sure.

To add a little side note, last year from May onwards to November , I didn’t have one 24 hr total that was over an inch, that’s hard to do and hope to never see that again. It’s all about the farmers now. They need a week of dryness to start promptly

I'm the new Bgoney...only 0.28 since Saturday.

[tron777]

12Z NAM clips our SW counties with some of the heavier convection but otherwise the rest of it is south of us. Some nice trends so far today folks if the data is correct.

[winterstormjoe]

12Z NAM clips our SW counties with some of the heavier convection but otherwise the rest of it is south of us. Some nice trends so far today folks if the data is correct.

Good, this means that I can take a long nap afterwork and not worry about tornado sirens going off and no alerts coming from my phone! Didn't sleep too well last night!

[tron777]

12Z NAM clips our SW counties with some of the heavier convection but otherwise the rest of it is south of us. Some nice trends so far today folks if the data is correct.

Good, this means that I can take a long nap afterwork and not worry about tornado sirens going off and no alerts coming from my phone! Didn't sleep too well last night!

I got woke up at 1am by booming thunder so I didn't sleep all that much either.

[BookNerdCarp]

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>073-077>082-088-082330-
/O.NEW.KILN.FA.A.0003.240509T0000Z-240509T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-
Lewis-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Aberdeen, Falmouth, Winchester,
Wilmington, Hillsboro, Rising Sun, Mason, Piketon, Dillsboro,
Pike Lake, Dry Ridge, Aurora, Blanchester, Georgetown, Hamilton,
Crittenden, Bright, Florence, West Union, Franklin, Owenton,
Oakbrook, Versailles, Newport, Lebanon, Fairfield, Mount Carmel,
Landen, Highland Heights, Fort Thomas, Withamsville,
Williamstown, Tollesboro, Summerside, Camp Dix, Brooksville,
Augusta, Mount Orab, Dayton, Waverly, Maysville, Vevay, Warsaw,
Springboro, Greendale, Butler, Oxford, Alexandria, Batesville,
Head Of Grassy, Portsmouth, Mulberry, Milford, Peebles,
Burlington, Osgood, Middletown, Hidden Valley, Bellevue,
Independence, Brookville, Wheelersburg, Erlanger, Carrollton,
Covington, Milan, Seaman, Day Heights, Chillicothe, Mount Olivet,
Downtown Cincinnati, Lawrenceburg, Greenfield, Ripley,
Manchester, Mount Repose, and Vanceburg
1126 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...The following counties in southeast Indiana, Dearborn,
Franklin, Ohio, Ripley and Switzerland. The following counties in
Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant,
Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson. The following
counties in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Clinton,
Hamilton, Highland, Pike, Ross, Scioto and Warren.

* WHEN...From 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
and flood-prone locations are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Soils are saturated from last night's rainfall and excessive
runoff from storms tonight will significantly increase the
potential for flooding and flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

[tron777]

12Z GFS still is more north with the low and we do get quite a bit of heavy rain tonight. Not all guidance agrees as we've mentioned. Can't blame ILN for hoisting the flood watch as any rain won't be good. Of course Bo could use the rain so let's all combine our resources and push this crap further north!

In all seriousness, looking at what's currently going on and there is a T-storm watch box out in MO with a new TOR watch that was just issued for SE MO, SW ILL, and Western KY until 5pm Central time. Cells are firing in that area along the warm front which goes SE from there into extreme SKY and Northern TN. The warm front is forecast to push a little further north, but how far remains to be seen. That will dictate if the heavier rainfall expected with the surface low tonight hits us or stays to our south.

Mesoanalysis from the SPC shows a broad or elongated low of 1000 MB over OK. Pressure falls map shows that it should track NE into SE MO as time goes on so hence the TOR watch I mentioned in that area. Closer to home, we have seen sunshine for a good chunk of the day so we have plenty of CAPE and bulk shear needed for strong to severe storms. However, we need a triggering mechanism which is the warm front and associated surface low for tonight. Where will the warm front be by late this afternoon and evening as well as the surface low's position? Those are the ultimate questions that we will need to answer by nowcasting for the rest of the day.

I still believe that the greatest severe threat will be south of us, but we could still see some of that heavier rainfall that I mentioned earlier. As usual, we'll have to wait and see how the rest of the day evolves.

[Bgoney]

You just never know with these warm fronts, they have a mind of their own much like cutoff lows. Models are throwing darts blindfolded in regards to low/warm-front positions for later. Another interesting weather day to watch unfold

[tron777]

You just never know with these warm fronts, they have a mind of their own much like cutoff lows. Models are throwing darts blindfolded in regards to low/warm-front positions for later. Another interesting weather day to watch unfold

To your point... the tornadoes that occurred over Southern Lower MI yesterday... some of those locations where north of the warm front and not even fully into the warm sector. So if that warm front happens to come far enough north, say for example, across our S tier counties, then the river counties / Cincinnati would be just north of the warm front itself. That would not be good at all. To avoid severe wx altogether, we would want the warm front to pretty much stay where it currently is. Unfortunately, that's probably not going to happen with a deepening surface low coming in. That should act to pull the warm front more northward. How far north is going to depend on how quickly the low gets its act together and how much it strengthens.

[tron777]

74 / 67 as of 12pm at CVG. The boys have updated their latest thinking as of 11:46am:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

Updated the pops for this afternoon through tonight with a
model blend that approximated current thinking. This generally
slowed the onset of precip but was an overall minor change. With
regards to severe potential, added a chance of severe in the
forecast for much of northern KY and far southeast IN. Threat
should diminish a few hours before daybreak. Later forecasts
will take a deeper dive on timing and severe potential.

SPC day 1 outlook morning update pulled enhanced area
south/southwest and out of the CWA. That area was where severe
potential tonight is noted in previous paragraph.

WPC has southern/southwest CWA in a slight chance for excessive
rainfall tonight. Combined with last night`s rain, a
significantly deep moist atmosphere, and expected thunderstorms,
a flash flood watch has been issued for the southern 1/2 of CWA.

Main concern for this watch is a narrow corridor running from
south of Wilmington to the Ohio River, then northwest through
metro Cincy and following I-74 through Indiana. Rainfall along
the I-74 corridor into Cincinnati was quite high, with reports
of 2-4" quite common and more than a handful over 3".

Southwest mid-level flow ahead of a persistent Western U.S.
trough will continue the warm and humid pattern today. A
shortwave will eject northeast into the middle Mississippi
Valley by the end of the period, bringing increasing clouds.
Isolated showers and storms may begin to develop toward the end
of the period near and south of the Ohio River along a
developing warm front.

[Wxlrnr]

I poured 2.65 inches of rain from my rain guage this morning. That was on top of the inch I poured out yesterday afternoon.

[tron777]

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1154 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...TORNADO CONFIRMED WEST OF NEW KNOXVILLE IN MERCER AND AUGLAIZE
COUNTY OHIO...

The National Weather Service office in Wilmington OH is currently
conducting a storm survey in Mercer and Auglaize County Ohio. The
survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved
through the area on May 7th 2024.

Very preliminary findings indicate that damage along
Guadalupe/Southland Road west of New Knoxville is tornadic in
nature. The damage begins in Mercer County, and extends into
Auglaize County.

A final assessment including results of the survey are expected
to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information
Statement by this evening.

The storm survey information will also be available on our
website at http://www.weather.gov/iln

EDIT: I believe an EF-1 was also confirmed NE of Brookville, IN.

[cloudy72]

Past 24 hour have and have nots!

mrms_qpe_024h_p.us_state_oh.png

[Bgoney]

SPC doesn’t think the warm front makes it past Lou/Lex , if that far north the way they have trimmed the severe boundaries

IMG_1730.jpeg

[tron777]

Wow! They did trim it back even more. Dang... Hopefully the SPC is correct. This would be wonderful news for most of us. Still though from a heavy rain standpoint, assuming the warm front stays down in Central KY, how far north will the rain shield be? We'll need to watch the radar of course to have that question answered.

Regional Radar:

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/day

[tron777]

Another TOR watch was just issued for areas well south and SW of our local area.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0206.html

[tron777]

I can't post images right now, but go to the SPC Mesopage and under the surface drop down, look at the dew points as well as the 3 hour dew point change. That tells the story IMO as far as severe wx prospects go. I also checked the 17Z HRRR and it by and large has the bulk of the rain staying south of CVG Land tonight, perhaps clipping our far southern counties but that would be it should that model be correct.

Regional radar has a small batch of light to mod strati form rain over South Central ILL. It'll be close to see if that moves in tonight. I'd still monitor things for a few more hours of course, but I am starting to feel better about not seeing severe wx and even perhaps not seeing too much in the way of heavy rain either. Hopefully these trends continue!

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and some great posts today. Of course how far of a northward shift with the warm front will determine severe weather for us locally. Sort of funny when the temps are warmer north of the so called warm front compared to folks south of the front. Main reason is cloud cover but really its just a wind change and sort of hard to pick out imo. Dew Points are not much different but yes dews locally low 60's compared to mid-60's in central Kentucky and near 70 in parts of southern Kentucky. Northwest though dew points are much lower and Indy near 50. So any storms should track towards the higher dew points and that will probably keep us from any severe weather. Still can get some rainfall but not sure how heavy that will in up being.

[Bgoney]

That would be one heck of a low track for mid May , that the EU has for late next week.