May 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Unless something pops up ahead of time... based on the current radar picture, we maybe okay for another hour or so. After that... I'd really start paying attention. I'm going to take a dinner break right now. Please keep the posts going by all means and post something when and if you see it. I assume that the tornado watch for us should be coming out from the SPC about any time now.

[BookNerdCarp]

INC029-041-047-115-137-155-161-177-KYC015-023-037-041-077-081-117-
135-161-187-191-201-OHC001-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-041-
045-047-049-057-061-065-071-073-089-091-097-107-109-113-129-131-
135-141-145-149-159-165-080500-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.A.0197.240507T2201Z-240508T0500Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 197 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA

FAYETTE UNION WAYNE

IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA

DEARBORN FRANKLIN OHIO
RIPLEY SWITZERLAND

IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY

LEWIS

IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY

BOONE BRACKEN CAMPBELL
CARROLL GALLATIN GRANT
KENTON MASON OWEN
PENDLETON ROBERTSON

IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 32 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OHIO

DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE
FRANKLIN HOCKING LICKING
MADISON PICKAWAY UNION

IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO

ADAMS HIGHLAND PIKE
ROSS SCIOTO

IN SOUTHWEST OHIO

BROWN BUTLER CLERMONT
CLINTON HAMILTON WARREN

IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO

AUGLAIZE CHAMPAIGN CLARK
DARKE GREENE HARDIN
LOGAN MERCER MIAMI
MONTGOMERY PREBLE SHELBY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN, ADA, ALEXANDRIA, AUGUSTA,
AURORA, BATESVILLE, BEAVERCREEK, BELLEFONTAINE, BELLEVUE,
BLANCHESTER, BRIGHT, BROOKSVILLE, BROOKVILLE, BURLINGTON, BUTLER,
CAMDEN, CAMP DIX, CARROLLTON, CELINA, CHILLICOTHE, CIRCLEVILLE,
COLDWATER, CONNERSVILLE, COVINGTON, CRITTENDEN, DAY HEIGHTS,
DAYTON, DELAWARE, DILLSBORO, DOWNTOWN CINCINNATI,
DOWNTOWN COLUMBUS, DOWNTOWN DAYTON, DRY RIDGE, EATON, ERLANGER,
FAIRBORN, FAIRFIELD, FALMOUTH, FLORENCE, FORT THOMAS, FRANKLIN,
GEORGETOWN, GREENDALE, GREENFIELD, GREENVILLE, HAMILTON,
HEAD OF GRASSY, HIDDEN VALLEY, HIGHLAND HEIGHTS, HILLSBORO,
INDEPENDENCE, KENTON, KETTERING, LANCASTER, LANDEN, LAWRENCEBURG,
LEBANON, LIBERTY, LOGAN, LONDON, MANCHESTER, MARYSVILLE, MASON,
MAYSVILLE, MIDDLETOWN, MILAN, MILFORD, MINSTER, MOUNT CARMEL,
MOUNT OLIVET, MOUNT ORAB, MOUNT REPOSE, MULBERRY, NEW BREMEN,
NEWARK, NEWPORT, OAKBROOK, OSGOOD, OWENTON, OXFORD, PEEBLES,
PICKERINGTON, PIKE LAKE, PIKETON, PIQUA, PLAIN CITY, PORTSMOUTH,
RICHMOND, RIPLEY, RISING SUN, SEAMAN, SIDNEY, SPRINGBORO,
SPRINGFIELD, ST. MARYS, SUMMERSIDE, TIPP CITY, TOLLESBORO, TROY,
URBANA, VANCEBURG, VERSAILLES, VEVAY, WAPAKONETA, WARSAW,
WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE, WAVERLY, WEST COLLEGE CORNER,
WEST JEFFERSON, WEST UNION, WHEELERSBURG, WILLIAMSTOWN,
WILMINGTON, WINCHESTER, WITHAMSVILLE, AND XENIA.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

CVG, DAY and CMH all reached 77 today.

[tron777]

Mostly sunny skies and currently 77 / 70 here. The atmosphere continues to grow more and more unstable. The 3000 J/KG contour on the SPC mesopage for CAPE is almost up to my hood now. Bulk shear is between 60-70 knots now depending on your location. DCAPE is at 1000 N of Cincy, 1100 for the Metro and 1200 down by LOU. Helicity is in the 150-200 range across the area. Supercell Comp index is now up to a 12 for us and VTP (Violent tornado parameter) is now up to 7 for Cincinnati. 11 over SW IN and Western KY.

[tron777]

Currently, there are 3 t-storm warnings for the IND forecast area and a couple of TOR warnings for IWX's forecast area (Northern IN). Our NW counties such as Connersville will be the locations that are going to be first at risk after 7pm. For the Metro Cincy area, I would say in that 8-11pm window to be on the safe side should be prime time for us. Later of course the further SE you go. Most locations should be winding down after midnight minus the far SE.

[Buckeye]

Tornado warned storm near Connersville headed towards Liberty. Just called my staff in Oxford to tell them to prepare for possible sirens. And the sirens have gone off. One TWarned storm to the north in Preble County, one to the south moving into Butler.

[Angelika]

Take cover Eric! One is headed towards Greenville.

[MVWxObserver]

1720 UNK 1 NE Norwood Hamilton OH 3917 8444 Large Tree and wires down near Ridgeland Place and Montgomery Road. (ILN)

2345 UNK 4 N Fort Recovery Mercer OH 4047 8478 Tree uprooted and branches down on SR49 and Siegrist-Jutte Road. Time estimated from RADAR. Possible tornado. (ILN)

2351 UNK 5 NNE Fort Recovery Mercer OH 4048 8475 Structural damage in Macedon. Time estimated from RADAR. Possible tornado. (ILN)

0001 UNK 4 WSW Union City Randolph IN 4019 8488 Thunderstorm winds downed 2 foot diameter tree onto road. (IND)

0018 1 E Milroy Rush IN 3950 8545 Touched down in a field east of Milroy. Nearby trees and power lines damaged. (IND)

0019 100 2 S Greenville Darke OH 4008 8463 Mostly pea-sized hail ... but a few stones as large as a quarter mixed in. (ILN)

0028 UNK 1 NNE Greenville Darke OH 4011 8463 Damage to Harmon Field and press box is destroyed. Time estimated from RADAR. (ILN)

0031 UNK 2 NE Greenville Darke OH 4012 8460 Multiple trees down ... structural damage. Roofs destroyed. Possible tornado. (ILN)

0035 UNK 1 N Greenville Darke OH 4011 8463 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 1 N Greenville. Roof Damage. Trees down on Parkside Drive. (ILN)

0044 UNK 2 N Gettysburg Darke OH 4014 8450 Damage to multiple farm buildings. Possible tornado. (ILN)

0235 UNK Greenhills Hamilton OH 3927 8452 Tree fell into two houses. Time estimated from radar data. (ILN)

[MVWxObserver]

Take cover Eric! One is headed towards Greenville.

Hi Angelika,

My folks sheltered in a walk-in closet and I was in our no-windowed laundry room.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[Bgoney]

Flash flooding due to to training looks to be the highest threat for cvgland atm

[MVWxObserver]

I have a public service announcement courtesy via local law enforcement that traveling through the city of Greenville is not advised with the exception of emergency personnel, for the time being, because of multiple power lines and trees down blocking streets e.g. So truck drivers etc. will want to plan accordingly their routes if they have scheduled business here in the area.

https://www.whio.com/news/local/storm-r ... AH256YEDA/

[tron777]

Good morning all and WOW! What a noisy night! The action took a little longer to get here then what the data showed but man... those storms woke me up about 1am this morning and the rain just ended here a short time ago. Flood warnings are in effect for many areas due to the training storms as Bgoney mentioned. Recall that CVG picked up 1.08" from that first wave. Tack on an additional 1.93" from overnight for a storm total of 3.01"

We will briefly dry out today but lo and behold... another round of potentially strong to severe t-storms is on tap for tonight. Highest risk areas will be as one works south of the river. Enhanced risk S of the River, slight risk north. There is even a moderate risk area out for SE MO,. Western KY / TN. Rain will wind down on Thurs with the passage of a cold front. Winds will pick up with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon. It will be breezy for Fri - weekend as well. Sat is our next cold front with a shot of rain. After a cool start, Mother's Day looks great with some sunshine and highs around 70! We turn warmer and active again next week but to what extent remains to be seen.

[Bgoney]

There is very little agreement from models for the track and speed of the low for this evening, which will determine exactly how far north heavy rains return to our area. No doubt another now cast kind of day

[Bgoney]

Checking in with exactly 3” in the last 24hrs. By far the highest 24hr period of qpf for mby in many years.

[tron777]

There is very little agreement from models for the track and speed of the low for this evening, which will determine exactly how far north heavy rains return to our area. No doubt another now cast kind of day

I see what you mean. The NAM has the low tracking across SKY and the Cincy Metro just gets clipped by some decent rains. North of us gets nothing. HRRR has the low tracking N of I-70 LOL What a spread for being so close to the event. Reminds me of trying to pin down a snow storm!

I would assume that the southern track maybe the way to go (probably not as far south as the NAM though). We do know that the better severe threat will be south of us with this round of convection but it will be interesting to see exactly where the next warm front sets up shop not only for the low track / heavy rain threat but for severe wx as well. As we saw last evening in Southern Lower Mich, they had a lot of big storms up there with large hail and tornadoes and that was all thanks to the warm front.

[tron777]

Checking in with exactly 3” in the last 24hrs. By far the highest 24hr period of qpf for mby in many years.

Awesome! Glad your area was able to cash in for a change. It's been a long time coming for sure.

[tron777]

The GFS and Euro are a good compromise as they both track the low right over us for this evening.

[Bgoney]

Checking in with exactly 3” in the last 24hrs. By far the highest 24hr period of qpf for mby in many years.

Awesome! Glad your area was able to cash in for a change. It's been a long time coming for sure.

To add a little side note, last year from May onwards to November , I didn’t have one 24 hr total that was over an inch, that’s hard to do and hope to never see that again. It’s all about the farmers now. They need a week of dryness to start promptly

[tron777]

Checking in with exactly 3” in the last 24hrs. By far the highest 24hr period of qpf for mby in many years.

Awesome! Glad your area was able to cash in for a change. It's been a long time coming for sure.

To add a little side note, last year from May onwards to November , I didn’t have one 24 hr total that was over an inch, that’s hard to do and hope to never see that again. It’s all about the farmers now. They need a week of dryness to start promptly

I remember. Your Dome was worse then mine or Mike's.

I wish I had better news with regards to drying out, esp. for local farmers. That +PNA pattern I mentioned a while back looks to potentially come to fruition so we get fronts diving in from the NW to keep the trough going over us. These are slow moving systems to so they can scoop up plenty of moisture from the Gulf. GEFS / EPS are both showing the +PNA in the extended range and a nice block over Eastern Canada on up into S Greenland, The trough is locked in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with no where to go. It's just too bad that we can never get that jet stream pattern to occur for long periods when we would want it most... during the winter!

[tron777]

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1220 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...STORM SURVEYS PLANNED FOR WEDNESDAY...

Due to recent severe weather across our area, the National Weather
Service will be conducting storm damage surveys later today,
Wednesday, May 8th. The surveys may be limited though due to
additional severe weather and hydrological concerns.

A more detailed plan on the exact locations of the surveys will
be made later this morning as we continue to review damage
reports.

If you have observed any weather-related damage, please report it
to the National Weather Service via severe weather reporting
methods or by calling 937-383-0031.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and what a busy late evening and overnight. Glad to more folks got in on the rain but like Bgoney mentioned the farmers need a stretch of dry weather to plant the crops. Will start looking at more info but have a doctors appt at 9am so once I get back time to look at the remainder of the day.

[tron777]

Good luck with your appointment, Tim! Hope all goes well. We should have a relatively quiet day with good heating taking place. I expect low to mid 80s for highs. Then depending on where the warm front is as the low approaches (wherever it ends up tracking), we should see storms fire up by late this afternoon and into the evening hours. The position as the warm front and track of the low will depend on how much rain we get as Bgoney has also mentioned. That's kind of where we're at right now. The warm front is currently located just a bit N of I-64 in KY as most of the better CAPE and juicer dews exists currently over Central and SKY. We will need to keep an eye on (as mentioned) where the boundary is later today.

[tron777]

In case anyone missed it:

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.

* WHERE...The following counties in southeast Indiana, Dearborn,
Ohio and Ripley. The following counties in northern Kentucky,
Boone, Campbell and Kenton. The following counties in Ohio, Brown,
Clermont, Hamilton and Highland.

* WHEN...Until 1000 AM EDT.