tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2024 7:52 am
Good Morning and some light rain falling this morning. Les you have been touting the severe weather for several days and a great call. The main item in your post is a low getting stronger as it pushes through the area. Both Tuesday and Wednesday have chances for severe weather with Wednesday imo having a better shot of tornado's but any storm that gets severe needs to be watched. How much rain and somebody will get hard with several rounds of rainfall this week. Still going1-3 but my guess there will be totals over the 3 inch mark.
Thanks Tim and I 100% agree also with your post. Some busy times ahead this week for sure. Wind, hail, tornadoes, flash flooding, etc... are all going to be on the table. Then we get a shot of cooler air and a few showers with the upper low. 60s for highs and 40s for lows Friday - the upcoming weekend. Lots to talk about for sure this week!
So far, nothing too heavy at least at CVG with 0.03" now in the books. That will of course change as time goes on this week.
Round one moving through this morning though weakening as it heads northeast and Louisville got nearly 1/2 inch with this round but locally less with higher totals south and east. The second round is southwest of Louisville and heading this way for later this morning and afternoon.
Just looking further southwest and Paducah got over 1.25 inches overnight but east of there much less. It seems the heaviest rain wants to be rather close to the river as these bands head northeast. There could be a wide range of totals today with folks further north getting the shaft while folks either side of the river could see totals approaching 1 inch plus today. This morning light rain for the most part but the next round could bring in some moderate to heavy rainfall.Les one of the busier weeks of the year as everyday has a chance of some rainfall
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2024 8:04 am
Round one moving through this morning though weakening as it heads northeast and Louisville got nearly 1/2 inch with this round but locally less with higher totals south and east. The second round is southwest of Louisville and heading this way for later this morning and afternoon.
There is a boundary hanging out over us and as you mentioned, the current shortwave is weakening as it moves in. The bulk of today's rainfall will be S of I-70. That boundary will be lifting northward in time and thus the severe threat for Tues and Wed since we will be getting into the warm sector by then.
Catching up on posts! Def need to watch tomorrow and Wednesday! Even though Wednesday seems to have all the bells and whistles of a major outbreak, we need to pay attention tomorrow as well. Could be a sneaky tornado situation and we always seem to get hammered when less is expected. Plus Wednesday may be a mostly south of the river event.
Mike I agree Tuesday needs close attention as well. Early May but the sun angle is high and strong so getting that atmosphere to become unstable is rather easy. Of course timing is key but with this set up even overnight storms can become strong. Not sure about Wednesday for location and yes the greater chances further south but still believe severe weather can get towards I-70. We will just need to see where the boundary sets up but with a stronger low moving in this tends to lift the boundary further north. After the front comes through still can get some showers Thursday and Friday as the atmosphere is just plain loaded. The past couple of weeks the heaviest of rain has been in the plains and even my son in northern Wisconsin mentioned the pond is full and very wet so their short term drought is over. This week we are in the bullseye for heaviest rains so I believe we will see some flooding in the smaller streams and of course a heavy thundershower can see the normal ponding of water on roadways for a short period of time.
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2024 9:11 am
High risk issued for parts of Oklahoma today!
Could Moore, OK get whacked for yet a third time??? Sure hope not. Prayers for sure go out to those folks! I read the discussion from the SPC and it makes you go
As of 10am CVG is up to 0.04" and the Boone Co mesonet site has picked up 0.08" The bulk of what we're seeing on radar is light and scattered. As far as our severe wx chances go, let's take it one day at a time. So for tomorrow, we will want to check the hires models and a couple of soundings too. SPC mesopage will also be useful. We have an interesting couple of days ahead...
Watched Brian's video and 40 minutes long so tons of info during that 40 minute video. Tuesday afternoon the cape is quite high and will watch the models later today if they continue to show that. I agree with Brian we always need to see how each round plays out and how that will affect the next round. Clouds that hang around longer can reduce the severe threat but just the opposite if the sun pops up right behind a line of storms. The blocking that can happen south of us with a west to east line of storms especially overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday. If that line is constant it can block some of the GOM moisture which would help reduce the severe threat somewhat.
With the severe threat in the plains today never easy for that severe threat to continue for 3 days in a row. This case though we have different pieces of energy so its possible. Again normally severe weather happening in your backyard is slim but like Brian mentioned better to make folks aware that some severe weather is possible. Heavy rain sometimes can help in keeping the severe threat down because a round moves through with just say a quick 0.75- 1.25. Then we wait for the atmosphere to recover and even if the sun pops out its grabbing moisture from the ground and the clouds can form quicker and keep the severe threat down. Of course watching the recovery to the west the next two days is so important and many times the sun will come out sooner west of here and this is where the bigger storms can form and move eastward.
So at this moment the severe threat both Tuesday and Wednesday is probably a 3 or 4 on a scale 10 which is quite high 24-48 hours in advance. Hopefully by this time on Tuesday we can either reduce or increase the chances of severe weather. Been a busy spring and many times when you see an El Nino event weakening it becomes very active in the eastern half of the USA. Is this Mother Nature telling us that the La Nina is coming and the summer could be hot and dry so take advantage of the spring rains. I have no ideal but have seen some of the worst short term droughts occur after a couple of months with well above normal rainfall and then we turn bone dry quickly. No way of knowing that but this has happened in the past but once again overall ocean water are warmer and more widespread than say 40 years ago.
Another 0.11 this morning. Watching the weak low pressure between Louisville and Owensboro this afternoon and it has weaken but still has its core around. Normally after 9am or so these do weaken to a certain extent. As it moves northeast will watch and see if there is a build up of rain once again say after 4pm or so. Still cloudy but if the sun pops up then yes and isolated strong storm could form but nothing severe today.
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2024 11:40 am
Watched Brian's video and 40 minutes long so tons of info during that 40 minute video. Tuesday afternoon the cape is quite high and will watch the models later today if they continue to show that. I agree with Brian we always need to see how each round plays out and how that will affect the next round. Clouds that hang around longer can reduce the severe threat but just the opposite if the sun pops up right behind a line of storms. The blocking that can happen south of us with a west to east line of storms especially overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday. If that line is constant it can block some of the GOM moisture which would help reduce the severe threat somewhat.
With the severe threat in the plains today never easy for that severe threat to continue for 3 days in a row. This case though we have different pieces of energy so its possible. Again normally severe weather happening in your backyard is slim but like Brian mentioned better to make folks aware that some severe weather is possible. Heavy rain sometimes can help in keeping the severe threat down because a round moves through with just say a quick 0.75- 1.25. Then we wait for the atmosphere to recover and even if the sun pops out its grabbing moisture from the ground and the clouds can form quicker and keep the severe threat down. Of course watching the recovery to the west the next two days is so important and many times the sun will come out sooner west of here and this is where the bigger storms can form and move eastward.
So at this moment the severe threat both Tuesday and Wednesday is probably a 3 or 4 on a scale 10 which is quite high 24-48 hours in advance. Hopefully by this time on Tuesday we can either reduce or increase the chances of severe weather. Been a busy spring and many times when you see an El Nino event weakening it becomes very active in the eastern half of the USA. Is this Mother Nature telling us that the La Nina is coming and the summer could be hot and dry so take advantage of the spring rains. I have no ideal but have seen some of the worst short term droughts occur after a couple of months with well above normal rainfall and then we turn bone dry quickly. No way of knowing that but this has happened in the past but once again overall ocean water are warmer and more widespread than say 40 years ago.
I am by no means an expert, but I do think this is a contributing factor to the busy severe wx season that a lot of the country has been seeing.
Been very busy at work today so at some point later today, I will try my best to take a look at tomorrow's set up a little more closely and make another post. Thanks all! Oh and BTW, if anyone else cares to make some posts, by all means please do so!
Another round of showers and thundershowers moving into the area at this time. These are not moving southwest to northeast but more south to north and even a little southeast to northwest and those can get strong. Expect lightning and thunder with some heavy downpours with the upcoming round.
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2024 9:11 am
High risk issued for parts of Oklahoma today!
Could Moore, OK get whacked for yet a third time??? Sure hope not. Prayers for sure go out to those folks! I read the discussion from the SPC and it makes you go
Hi Les,
Moore is where our weather friend Jeremy Moses e.g. resides. He's a northern KY native.
Hey Eric and hope all is well with you and your family. Love those graphics you posted and much of that will be near the warm front. Tuesday the tornado chances will probably be further north and closer to I-70 but again everyone should stay alert. Wednesday that threat is probably near the Ohio River but again Mother Nature has a mind of her own and need to stay alert. Could see hail either day and so far this spring we have had hail a few times so its just one of those springs that hail has an easy time forming. Rainfall probably in the 1-3 inch range for most though if you get some training over a certain area some folks could exceed that total. So far since Saturday morning I have 1.92 inches but of course its a nice steady rain falling at the moment so that total will easily exceed 2 inches before the afternoon is over.
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2024 3:46 pm
Hey Eric and hope all is well with you and your family. Love those graphics you posted and much of that will be near the warm front. Tuesday the tornado chances will probably be further north and closer to I-70 but again everyone should stay alert. Wednesday that threat is probably near the Ohio River but again Mother Nature has a mind of her own and need to stay alert. Could see hail either day and so far this spring we have had hail a few times so its just one of those springs that hail has an easy time forming. Rainfall probably in the 1-3 inch range for most though if you get some training over a certain area some folks could exceed that total. So far since Saturday morning I have 1.92 inches but of course its a nice steady rain falling at the moment so that total will easily exceed 2 inches before the afternoon is over.
Hi Tim,
We're all faring well and prayerfully you and yours are, too, bro.
My folks and I will be making a trip to the Clifton area of Cincy on Wed as I have a routine appt at 11:15 at UC Health. Glad my appt is then rather than in the afternoon and after a lunch stop at a favorite eatery landmark in Hamilton we can then get back home to Greenville before activity starts more so that evening.
The one thing I forgot to mentioned is the flood chances. Some areas over the past two days have seen some decent rain and if those same areas get hit again you may see some flood advisory's for streams and creeks. The flooding chances should continue through Thursday and though this is not one where the Ohio River becomes a problem but your smaller areas creeks and streams. Most folks who live near them know the routine. I can tell you with the rain I had Saturday morning I went out for a drive on Saturday evening and once again on Sunday and the rain just sitting on the ground was still there in Independence but once I traveled north those areas were just wet as the water had seeped into the ground. Have no ideal where the heavy rain may set up the next few days but if some areas get 3 or 4 rounds of decent rain then flooding is possible.
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2024 4:09 pm
The one thing I forgot to mentioned is the flood chances. Some areas over the past two days have seen some decent rain and if those same areas get hit again you may see some flood advisory's for streams and creeks. The flooding chances should continue through Thursday and though this is not one where the Ohio River becomes a problem but your smaller areas creeks and streams. Most folks who live near them know the routine. I can tell you with the rain I had Saturday morning I went out for a drive on Saturday evening and once again on Sunday and the rain just sitting on the ground was still there in Independence but once I traveled north those areas were just wet as the water had seeped into the ground. Have no ideal where the heavy rain may set up the next few days but if some areas get 3 or 4 rounds of decent rain then flooding is possible.
There's an area that leads to a cul-de-sac from our neighborhood street e.g. that tends to pond, too, at times.
The Reds vs Diamondbacks series at the GAB could be interesting esp Tues and Wed evenings given the potential for strong / severe. Could be a makeup date or two in the series.
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2024 4:09 pm
The one thing I forgot to mentioned is the flood chances. Some areas over the past two days have seen some decent rain and if those same areas get hit again you may see some flood advisory's for streams and creeks. The flooding chances should continue through Thursday and though this is not one where the Ohio River becomes a problem but your smaller areas creeks and streams. Most folks who live near them know the routine. I can tell you with the rain I had Saturday morning I went out for a drive on Saturday evening and once again on Sunday and the rain just sitting on the ground was still there in Independence but once I traveled north those areas were just wet as the water had seeped into the ground. Have no ideal where the heavy rain may set up the next few days but if some areas get 3 or 4 rounds of decent rain then flooding is possible.
There's an area that leads to a cul-de-sac from our neighborhood street e.g. that tends to pond, too, at times.
The Reds vs Diamondbacks series at the GAB could be interesting esp Tues and Wed evenings given the potential for strong / severe. Could be a makeup date or two in the series.
At the moment the Reds could not hit out of wet paper bag. The offense is horrible at the moment
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2024 4:09 pm
The one thing I forgot to mentioned is the flood chances. Some areas over the past two days have seen some decent rain and if those same areas get hit again you may see some flood advisory's for streams and creeks. The flooding chances should continue through Thursday and though this is not one where the Ohio River becomes a problem but your smaller areas creeks and streams. Most folks who live near them know the routine. I can tell you with the rain I had Saturday morning I went out for a drive on Saturday evening and once again on Sunday and the rain just sitting on the ground was still there in Independence but once I traveled north those areas were just wet as the water had seeped into the ground. Have no ideal where the heavy rain may set up the next few days but if some areas get 3 or 4 rounds of decent rain then flooding is possible.
There's an area that leads to a cul-de-sac from our neighborhood street e.g. that tends to pond, too, at times.
The Reds vs Diamondbacks series at the GAB could be interesting esp Tues and Wed evenings given the potential for strong / severe. Could be a makeup date or two in the series.
At the moment the Reds could not hit out of wet paper bag. The offense is horrible at the moment
I know what you mean, bro. When the Brew Crew comes to town e.g. you'd probably rather root for them. Or with your son and fam at Miller Park.
Def need to watch tomorrow and Wednesday! Even though Wednesday seems to have all the bells and whistles of a major outbreak, we need to pay attention tomorrow as well. Could be a sneaky tornado situation and we always seem to get hammered when less is expected. Plus Wednesday may be a mostly south of the river event.
Or with your son and fam at Miller Park. 