May 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

75 was all I could manage here. Felt much warmer though due to the humidity.

[Wxlrnr]

Getting a nice shower now, had a total of 0.65 after the morning showers.

Edit, shower over now. Poured, added 0.3 inches for a total of 0.95 inches.

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

[tron777]

Good morning folks! A bit foggy out there this morning due to the recent rainfall and abundant low level moisture. A decent day today, although humid with highs 75 to 80. A few showers and storms are possible but I think a lot of folks will remain dry. Then for next week, we're back into the action by Monday afternoon and evening. Then, a very high chance for rain and storms Tues and Wed. Some could be strong to severe. Then, a front passes on Thurs to bring in scattered showers Friday and next Sat with the upper level low. Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s by then can be expected.

SPC has us in a slight risk now for Tues (Day 3) and we are still outlooked for Wed, Day 4 as well.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and the forecast looks great. You mentioned in a post about a MCS. These of course can occur anytime but usually from late May through mid-August or so. Getting these you need a big high pressure and a rather strong one and we get the pieces of energy to head around the high pressure. Not sure we are there yet but the one thing that is helpful this spring is many folks in the eastern half of the country are getting wet so these systems can form and will be able to hold together quite nicely as they head east/southeast.

My final total on Saturday was 1.81 so no doubt I was one of the winners in the rain category. I agree today the rain chances are slimmer but still expect a few to pop but starting later Monday through much of the week those chances increase. I would go with 1-2 inches area wide this week but again all it takes is a complex like Saturday morning and those totals increase. Very tropical out there so the atmosphere is loaded.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and the forecast looks great. You mentioned in a post about a MCS. These of course can occur anytime but usually from late May through mid-August or so. Getting these you need a big high pressure and a rather strong one and we get the pieces of energy to head around the high pressure. Not sure we are there yet but the one thing that is helpful this spring is many folks in the eastern half of the country are getting wet so these systems can form and will be able to hold together quite nicely as they head east/southeast.

My final total on Saturday was 1.81 so no doubt I was one of the winners in the rain category. I agree today the rain chances are slimmer but still expect a few to pop but starting later Monday through much of the week those chances increase. I would go with 1-2 inches area wide this week but again all it takes is a complex like Saturday morning and those totals increase. Very tropical out there so the atmosphere is loaded.

Thanks Tim! My original call was for 1-2" from last Fri thru Wed of the upcoming week. That still looks good for many, but there will be isolated locations that will get more since some areas (such as your hood) are already closing in on the 2" mark. I mentioned the possibility of an MCS due to fronts dropping in from the NW via NW Flow in the extended range. You definitely need a good baroclinic boundary (strong temp contrast with an associated frontal boundary) and my thinking on this is that once we get past the active week this week and associated cool down (Fri thru next weekend thanks to the upper low), then as we try and warm back up again, I think that is when we could see that baroclinic boundary that I spoke of, with fronts diving in from Canada via the NW Flow then bang! Whatever happens, I do think we look to remain active either way, it's just what form will it take is the question.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 73 here in G'ville and 74 DAY.

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY 48TH BIRTHDAY LES!!

Thank you for all that you do for us here at AV and enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Also Happy Cinco de Mayo!

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

HAPPY 48TH BIRTHDAY LES!!

Thank you for all that you do for us here at AV and enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Also Happy Cinco de Mayo!

Thanks very much, Eric! I appreciate it Bro! I will be back soon to talk weather. Taking a quick break from doing yardwork. Still have to trim and then blow the driveway and patio off. Then I'm done!

[Pete1]

Happy Birthday Les, my friend!!!

[tron777]

Happy Birthday Les, my friend!!!

Thanks Pete! I appreciate it man! I finally got the lawn done so what little bit of my Birthday that I have left... I am going to do absolutely nothing other then grabbing a shower.

[tron777]

79 for the high thus far here and at CVG. It was nice to get a dry day for a change and we will have a quiet night tonight. However, that will be short lived. Our next system is already on the move currently located over AR, MO, and now getting into SW TN as well. That is going to be our rain maker for tomorrow with mod to hvy rain possible mainly S of I-70. The Cincy Tri-state area could be the big winners here. I don't expect severe wx tomorrow but Tues and Wed could certainly be a different story in that department for everyone. In Fact, I am concerned for severe wx on Wed even more so then Tues due to a strong low pressure system tracking thru the region. Once the front moves thru on Thurs, we'll get the cooler temps we have previously discussed for Fri - Sun. Afternoon and evening showers / isolated t-storms (non severe) will also be possible fir the Thurs - Sun period.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY reached 78 and CMH 77 today.

Les, I wonder if they'll readjust CVG to 79 late tonight ...? We'll see ...

UPDATE: CVG / DAY / CMH all reached 79.

[tpweather]

Happy Birthday Les!!! I hope you had a wonderful day and again thanks for everything you do with the forum.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and a nice muggy day but not horrible. So what are we seeing for the upcoming week and models have moved a tad further south and east with the heaviest rains which puts us in a good place to get a nice amount over the next 4 days. Severe weather and yes heavy rains are possible but what about some hail and even tornado's and hail. At the moment Wednesday looks the best for severe weather but will need to watch Tuesday afternoon depending on timing. Still a lot of energy floating around and the models tend to move these over time but since we are getting closer to a busy stretch they are getting close to the same forecast. Monday looks wet and very slow moving system but if you go further north and west there will be some drier air involved which would hold totals down. This is a week where totals are going to vary much like Saturday and if you are in the strike zone over an inch but if you are on the northern end of this system maybe .10 is possible. For the week though I believe 1-3 is a good call but some folks yes will fall short and some folks may exceed that 3 inch mark. Late in the week and next weekend a nice cool shot of air.

[tron777]

Both CVG / DAY reached 78 and CMH 77 today.

Les, I wonder if they'll readjust CVG to 79 late tonight ...? We'll see ...

Sometimes, when I use that Mesowest Data website, I have seen the numbers every once and a while be off by a degree versus the ILN Climate report. I'll go with the 78 per the 5pm climate report at this time.

[tron777]

Happy Birthday Les!!! I hope you had a wonderful day and again thanks for everything you do with the forum.

Thanks so much Tim! Always glad when you are here posting!

[tron777]

Good Evening and a nice muggy day but not horrible. So what are we seeing for the upcoming week and models have moved a tad further south and east with the heaviest rains which puts us in a good place to get a nice amount over the next 4 days. Severe weather and yes heavy rains are possible but what about some hail and even tornado's and hail. At the moment Wednesday looks the best for severe weather but will need to watch Tuesday afternoon depending on timing. Still a lot of energy floating around and the models tend to move these over time but since we are getting closer to a busy stretch they are getting close to the same forecast. Monday looks wet and very slow moving system but if you go further north and west there will be some drier air involved which would hold totals down. This is a week where totals are going to vary much like Saturday and if you are in the strike zone over an inch but if you are on the northern end of this system maybe .10 is possible. For the week though I believe 1-3 is a good call but some folks yes will fall short and some folks may exceed that 3 inch mark. Late in the week and next weekend a nice cool shot of air.

Looks like our thoughts are pretty much lock 'n' step for this week Tim! Tues could be interesting with a pocket of dry air aloft for down burst winds, but Wed certainly should have our full attention with a strong surface low moving thru the region. Could be a rough Wed evening / overnight IMO for some area of the forum, if not us! That cool shot of air will feel cooler then it actually is since our bodies have kind of gotten use to the 70s and 80s.

[MVWxObserver]

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the Mid-South northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes, large
to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible.

[MVWxObserver]

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi,
Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur.
Some of the tornadoes may be strong.

[tron777]

Good morning all! The busy week has already begun with rain beginning to move into the region. When I left for work this morning, a few sprinkles were already occurring. For today... just some rain / a few storms, with no severe wx expected. We'll see how things evolve for Tues with regards to the severe threat there. Wed evening is still looking to be prime time for severe wx and the highest chance for it to occur. All hazards are on the table. More later...

[tron777]

CVG is on the board now with 0.01" as of 7am. Look for a wet AM Commute this morning for the Cincy Tri-state. After today, the 6Z HRRR has 3 lines of strong to severe storms for tomorrow. The first line comes in around midday to early afternoon tomorrow. The second for the PM Commute with a third round during the evening hours. Flooding will be a major concern this week for sure in addition to the severe threat tomorrow and esp on Wed.

Wind and hail are the primary threats tomorrow with again, all severe wx hazards including tornadoes for Wed as a strengthening surface low moves thru the region. Wed afternoon and evening and honestly into the overnight hours needs to be watched very closely IMO.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and some light rain falling this morning. Les you have been touting the severe weather for several days and a great call. The main item in your post is a low getting stronger as it pushes through the area. Both Tuesday and Wednesday have chances for severe weather with Wednesday imo having a better shot of tornado's but any storm that gets severe needs to be watched. How much rain and somebody will get hard with several rounds of rainfall this week. Still going1-3 but my guess there will be totals over the 3 inch mark.