May 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

I just got through Brian's video and he did mention that tropical nature of these showers and thundershowers and that is why I raised the totals. Glad he mentioned that in his video and yes he is forecasting for Louisville and no doubt heavier rains are more likely further south where the moisture is even more tropical but just reminds me of a late spring pattern which can bring some decent rains. This is different than summer where much of the time the storms are much more scattered and not everyone gets hit. I believe everyone will get some rainfall through mid-day Saturday so I just pushed up the totals a tad higher. I know with the Derby and the Pig along with other activities that go along with those two outdoor is so important. Another round probably on Sunday and then next week just looks busy. How much rain over the next 7-10 days and again amounts will vary and though I believe most folks will get at least 1-2 inches I can see where a training of storms pan out and those totals can go much higher. Just way to early to get exact locations. Like Les mentioned severe weather is back in the picture next week and maybe starting Tuesday and lasting a few days.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has a 1/2" south of the river, 0.25" to the north. This is for tomorrow's system. I still think 1-2" is a good bet for the Friday thru Wednesday of next week period. I am broad brushing it due to the scattered nature of some of the heavier downpours. Some areas may get those higher amounts Tim is mentioning but if that does occur, I think it'll be more isolated. I don't think that we will see those heavier downpours on a more widespread basis until next week. I am certainly keeping a close eye towards the middle of next week for heavier rains plus severe wx potential as well which we are now beginning to discuss. SPC has the Plains highlighted for Monday (Day 5) so we will watch in future updates if we get out looked say sometime over the weekend or something.

EDIT: Until then, the forcing is rather week and the instability is also minor with these next couple of shortwaves so I am leaning towards Bgoney's thoughts for Fri - probably Mon of next week. Then, after that, some of the better action should be kicking in.

[tron777]

81 as of 1pm at CVG with a dew of 62. Forecasted high of 85-87 so far is on track.

[tron777]

85 so far at CVG today., 86 here so the high temp call worked out nicely. On to tracking rain / storm chances from tomorrow onwards.

[snwyowl]

Broke down and turned the air on. Wondering if it will be humid over the next few days? I'd love to open the windows and listen to the rain (and hopefully thunder!) but hate that sticky feeling. Thanks

[tron777]

Broke down and turned the air on. Wondering if it will be humid over the next few days? I'd love to open the windows and listen to the rain (and hopefully thunder!) but hate that sticky feeling. Thanks

Dewpoints should avg in the upper 50s to the lower 60s so a bit of stickiness to the air, but not as sticky as we get in summer thankfully. I've had the air on too for several days due to the 80s.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Rain is moving into the area now for the AM Commute and that will only increase for the PM commute. We're back to more scattered stuff this weekend with likely POPS again for most of next week. Still keeping that one eye open for severe wx for the mid week period. Hope everyone has a great Friday!!!

[tron777]

A wonderful AFD from the boys explaining why we are going to have a chance for rain / storms in the forecast over the next week and change. It's a lengthy read but a very informative one.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Embedded mid level energy in southwest flow aloft will lift
northeast across the Ohio Valley region through this afternoon.
This will be accompanied by a weak cold front that will push
into our area from the west later today. Moist southwest flow
ahead of this will allow for showers to overspread mainly our
western areas through mid morning and then the remainder of our
area heading into this afternoon. Instability will remain
fairly marginal so will just allow for a chance of some
embedded thunderstorms today. With some cooler air moving in
from the west, highs today will range from the mid 70s west to
the lower 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The mid level energy will push off to the east through tonight
as the weak cold front gradually weakens as it moves across our
eastern areas. As a result, expect an overall decreasing trend
in pcpn from the west tonight with overnight lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

Southwest flow will persist aloft through the day on Saturday
with some weak mid level energy again lifting northeast across
the region. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s
with sbcapes climbing up to around 1000 J/KG or so through the
afternoon. With forcing aloft fairly weak, will limit pops
to mainly chance category across much of the area for Saturday.
The exception may be across our east, closer to the washing out
front, where will include some likely pops across at least our
far east during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While the forecast may seem a bit muddied with a potential of
showers and thunderstorms through the period, there is good
reasoning to have them there.

First, overnight lows are only 5-10 degrees below normal. Normal
high temperatures. A clear signal where temperatures across the
region drop below 60 overnight doesn`t seem to come about until
Friday night (beyond this forecast). Thursday night looks to be
within a few degrees of 60 across the CWA, but until then, 60-65 is
expected. The warmest nights will be Tuesday and Wednesday where
some locations to the southeast might only drop into the upper 60s.

This prolonged period of overnight warmth leads to/stems from an
abundance of moisture in the area. Couple this moisture with high
temperatures generally running from the mid 70s to around 80 and
forcing mechanisms at the surface or aloft at one time or another,
and you just can`t rule out shower and thunderstorm activity. More
like summer, only without the blisteringly higher temperatures one
might expect.

During the period, Tuesday will see everyone within a few degrees of
80 but Wednesday will be the warmest with lower 80s expected, and
some mid 80s possible in the southern CWA. Both high and low
temperatures from the Euro ensembles show a fairly tight standard
deviation of 2-3 through the entire forecast, meaning a higher
confidence in narrowing the expected range in both high and low
temps.

Second, lifting mechanisms of one sort or another remain a larger
than average threat to be over the Ohio Valley and CWA for this
period. Saturday night will start with lingering storms that should
be decaying after initiation from daytime heating. A cold front is
pushing in overnight and while weakening, is still moving into a
relatively moist environment and could propagate any lingering
storms through the night. This front stretches and weakens on
Sunday, but maintains a moisture boundary due to a strong high
pressure center to the north. This could lead to showers over the
southern CWA during the day and more overnight as the remnant
boundary becomes more pronounced from w-e. Monday/Monday night keeps
the boundary stretched through the CWA. It exits north-northeast on
Tuesday and NBM pops given are much too high with likely in the
west. A simple chance of showers/storms would be the better middle
ground forecast.

Now on Wednesday, warm sector showers/storms on southwest flow are
more likely and could continue overnight. A surface low/front is
progged on Thursday with the mean sw flow aloft not showing much
change. Friday`s potential of storms is focused on the potential of
a surface low developing near/west of the CWA ahead of a l/w H5
trough, with the low dropping a front through the region.

The cumulative pattern suggests potential rainfall/flooding issues
either with individual MCS episodes or from repeated rounds of
convection. This is as the upper ridge slowly flattens and low-mid
level flow lines up wsw by mid week. Starting Friday, an effective
frontal passage should begin to settle south of the area with
cooler/drier conditions possible for the weekend.

[tron777]

Light rain now being reported at CVG per the 9am reading. The rain has not started up here in Mason yet but per radar, it will do so shortly.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and nothing here yet as we see the first round moving through this morning. Some moderate showers involved with this but not everyone getting those. Good way to moisten up the atmosphere though for later rounds. Still going .5-0.75 by midday Saturday and yes some higher totals with a decent thundershower.Next week still very busy but this far away timing will not be exact. Many of the short term droughts we have is when we get a decent amount of rain for the vegetation and then the rain becomes hard to get during the summer. Many folks are talking about a hot summer and still not sure yet but no doubt at least through May and maybe June it should be warm and muggy and the more rain we get the muggier overnights we see.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! The longer the faucet stays on, IMO the better to keep the real deal summer time heat at bay. But at the same time, My Dome could kick in too and the faucet can easily turn itself off just as fast. The main reason a lot of folks are forecasting a hot summer is due to the transition from El Nino to La Nina. the -PDO, and the warmer then avg oceanic SST's. I keep hearing about a hyperactive hurricane season too for those same reasons. We'll see I guess, but I am more confident on a warmer then avg summer versus a very active hurricane season. With regards to summer, I still don't think it'll be "the hottest of all time" that I keep hearing about, but I do think we will see an above avg of 90 degree days which is now 22 for a seasonal avg at CVG. I do like the fact that we are seeing a lot of rain in Texas / Plains so hopefully that can help somewhat to keep the big time heat at bay even for just a little while.

[tron777]

CVG still reporting light rain as of 10am but it must be extremely light as I have yet to see their rain gauge record anything measurable so I guess we'll call it a trace. Boone Co Mesonet is actually on the board now with 0.01"

[Bgoney]

A few sprinkles finally here in East Hamilton where I’m at . Not enough to keep from working. Some of what was showing on radar was virga in many places

[tron777]

A few sprinkles finally here in East Hamilton where I’m at . Not enough to keep from working. Some of what was showing on radar was virga in many places

It's been a virga fest here in Mason thus far.

[winterstormjoe]

A few sprinkles finally here in East Hamilton where I’m at . Not enough to keep from working. Some of what was showing on radar was virga in many places

It's been a virga fest here in Mason thus far.

When will the more beneficial rains move in? Today's so far have been a dud!

[tron777]

A few sprinkles finally here in East Hamilton where I’m at . Not enough to keep from working. Some of what was showing on radar was virga in many places

It's been a virga fest here in Mason thus far.

When will the more beneficial rains move in? Today's so far have been a dud!

My forecast was for increasing rain this afternoon but at this point, that call could turn into a dud. Radar does not currently look very promising. The frontal boundary is weak and the energy is not very impressive. This weekend, I think will be similar with regards to scattered activity. Next week is when we should get more widespread, heavier coverage. Still standing by my 1-2" call thru Wed of next week. I think we stand the chance honestly for all of next week, even on into next weekend as the upper low finally swings thru.

[Bgoney]

I think the hi- res models from yesterday had it right so far. Spotty hit and miss light showers during the day with Very light amounts . Then overnight and into the morning , spotty isolated light to moderate showers possible. Overall a light event until we get into next week

[tron777]

I think the hi- res models from yesterday had it right so far. Spotty hit and miss light showers during the day with Very light amounts . Then overnight and into the morning , spotty isolated light to moderate showers possible. Overall a light event until we get into next week

Completely agree. Great call!

[tron777]

Just had a nice 10-15 min downpour here... the heaviest rain of the day lol CVG is up to 0.07" now, I picked up a quick tenth of an inch myself.

[Wxlrnr]

Got back from eating with friends and walked the dog. Sprinkles and 0.45 in the rain guage. SURPRISED!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 85, DAY 86 and CMH 87 on Thurs.

CVG reached 72, DAY 74 and CMH 75 on Fri.

[Bgoney]

Just a trace here .

IMG_1725.jpeg

[tron777]

Good morning all! Radar is showing a nice little cluster of storms (non severe) over NKY heading into my hood and the Downtown Cincy area here soon. It's a slow mover at only 15-20 mph.

Current event totals:

CVG - 0.13"
Me - 0.10"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.03"

[tron777]

The SPC has us outlooked for severe wx on Tues and Wed of next week per the latest Day 4-8 outlook. We will need to hone in on this once we get closer to work out the finer details.

day4prob.gif

day5prob.gif

[tpweather]

Good Morning and some moderate to heavy rain with thunder this morning. The air mass is very tropical and when you get under one of these areas of showers and thundershowers rainfall totals go up quickly. Yesterday was much more isolated than I expected and I believe I had 5 raindrops. Making up for that this morning. These are slow movers but not widespread so totals will vary quite a bit though I expected a more widespread of rain yesterday and today so my forecast of .5-0.75 will not happen for many it will happen for some and in a quick manner. Any sun later today and this will help ignite more showers later today but as we saw yesterday very little sun and saw just isolated action in the afternoon.