May 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Time to get the May thread going. Can you believe that the 5th month of the year is almost here? We will start off on the toasty side in the 80s for Wed and Thurs, then turn more active again by Friday. Daily scattered storm chances continue this weekend on into next week as well. Discuss!

[tron777]

I will kind of piggyback off of Tim's last post in the April thread. As mentioned, we certainly look to remain on the active side for the first half of the month at the very least. I see the GFS from time to time showing a cut off low in the extended range as well. Very common to see a system like that in the springtime. Whether it occurs or not, remains to be seen. The Plains states all the way down into portions of Texas, continue to get hammered with severe wx and flooding rainfall and I expect that pattern to continue for a while. For us... we should continue to see cold fronts passing thru the area giving us a dose of rain from time to time. Not the best of patterns for severe wx in the OV as I think that remains to the West for the most part, however, if we can get a strong enough front in here with decent timing, then the severe threat would absolutely be of concern. For now... I like the timing personally that we have been seeing with a lot of our rain coming at night. With newly planted grass / gardens, you really couldn't ask for a better set up in that regard.

[tron777]

After watching BG's video from today and looking at the 12Z GFS.... we know the pattern going forward looks active. Temps as a whole will also remain above avg if not well above avg at times. The only thing lacking is severe wx. Wondering if that changes a bit mid to late next week? BG did mention a signal that he was seeing showing up around May 8th or so. Today's GFS has that signal for the I-70 Crew while the 6Z run hammered the Cincy Tri-state. It's a ways off so as usual, we shall see! Until then our next chance for rain is Friday with a daily chance basically this weekend on into next week peaking around the 8th or so. With a solid -PNA, the trough will keep ejecting pieces of energy causing severe wx and flooding rains over the Plains. For us to get flooding rains like that and severe wx, we need better timing. We need to see these fronts during peak heating instead of overnight.

[tpweather]

Good evening and great post Les. The further we get into spring much harder for flooding. Sure you can get plenty of rainfall but with vegetation getting greater and more sunshine and heating that can help as well in keeping flooding down. Not saying you can't get flooding but becomes a tad tougher.

So far this year we are doing well in the rain department and though temps have been above normal for the year much of that earlier during the winter. Next 7-10 days look busy but nothing that looks bad in terms of very heavy rainfall. I know some of the models are throwing out plenty of rainfall in the next month or so but they tend to overdo the rainfall amounts. I will take 4 inches a month the next two months and then see where we are for the heart of summer. Once we get into July and August we know the amount of days with rainfall are less and we tend to get much of the rain in just a few thunderstorms.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Tim... wonderful post and I agree with regards to the rainfall. Getting above normal temps is fine as long as you get the rain to go along with it. It's bad when the faucet turns off and the heat cranks up. I keep reading doom and gloom from a lot of the Met Community out there with regards to this summer potentially being one of the hottest on record due to the transitioning from El Nino to La Nina. The strength and orientation of the Nina will be the keys to that forecast being correct or busting. I myself have mentioned that I too expect a hot summer but I think it is just plain silly to go with one of the hottest ever phrasing. Rainfall over the next couple of months will be key as Tim mentioned. If we can at least get normal rainfall then hopefully that can save us from the searing heat and drought being touted. Getting on the MCS Train would be a nice bonus. We haven't had that ring of fire pattern pan out for us in a long time.

Anyway... for the short term, no changes to what we have already discussed. A couple of warm and sunny days upcoming before rain and t-storms return on Friday. Still keeping low end POPS in the forecast for this weekend but not a washout by any means. There will be lots of dry hours in there. Same with Monday of next week before POPS ramp up ahead of our next front by Tues / Wed of next week. I don't really see any severe wx at this time until perhaps Tues or Wed of next week but that's a long ways out there and the timing of the front as always is key as well as the lift and forcing.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and Les has the forecast covered!!! I really have no thoughts on the summer and like Les mentioned the chatter of a very hot summer is floating around but just way too early for me to go that way. Over the years we can look at La Nina's,El Nino's and the changeover between the two and try to form a somewhat decent long term forecast. The problem is the overall ocean's are warmer and that must be put into the equation as well and many times its new info. I will just see how the next two months pan out here and over many parts of the country to see if we start seeing a hot summer developing. Yes it will be hot like all summers but the duration is unknown at this early stage.

[tron777]

6Z NAM has scattered showers, maybe an isolated t-storm arriving by midday to early Fri afternoon. The GFS is much faster having the rain arriving Fri morning just before the AM Rush begins. A break then more showers possible later on Sat into Sun morning as a cold front passes. The front comes back north as a warm front next week with scattered storms possible as a result. Decent signal is still there for some heavier t-storms on Wed as well. Then we get the upper low or back lash showers Thurs of next week. The 0Z Euro is slower for Fri like the NAM and is also the most aggressive model for POPS over the weekend. So while it won't be raining non stop, you can clearly see that the pattern will be getting more active starting on Friday and honestly throughout most of next week too.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and the front will be nearby for an extended period so chances of showers and thundershowers will be around and will hopefully be able to narrow some of the rounds the closer we get to Friday. I agree no severe weather but you may here thunder at time but the severe weather should stay to the west.

Alaska especially the north remains very cold even for them with more snow. They have long winters anyway but this year extended more than normal. Just had to get my winter fix by mentioning Alaska

[tron777]

Great Post Les and the front will be nearby for an extended period so chances of showers and thundershowers will be around and will hopefully be able to narrow some of the rounds the closer we get to Friday. I agree no severe weather but you may here thunder at time but the severe weather should stay to the west.

Alaska especially the north remains very cold even for them with more snow. They have long winters anyway but this year extended more than normal. Just had to get my winter fix by mentioning Alaska

That is a good observation Tim.... when Alaska is colder then avg we are usually warmer then avg and vice versa. We've had a lot of 80s already occurring for April so it makes sense that AK is still very cold. I checked NWS Fairbanks, and where Barrow is on the North Slope, highs in the teens and lows in the single digits are expected over the next week with periods of freezing fog and light snow as well. Definitely below avg for early May even up there per the NWS.

[tron777]

As of 4/29, you can clearly see the -PDO signature developing with very warm SST's off the Japanese Coast and a horse shoe shaped area of below normal SST's developing from the Gulf of Alaska and off the West Coast of North America. Also, you can easily see the developing La Nina getting underway with that area of colder SST's along the equatorial Pacific.


https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ ... urrent.png


On the Atlantic side, we can see cooler waters off the East Coast of the US, but the MDR (Main Development Region) of the tropical Atlantic continues to run well above normal. Tis includes the Caribbean all the way over towards the African Coast. We shall have to wait and see how the tropics respond as we get towards the summer months. The Saharan Dust Layer or SAL, seems to usually have a say early on in the season with regards to tampering down T-storm development. Click on the below link to see the latest SAL map. Wow.... there is sure a ton of dust out there at this time. Until we see that clean up some, I would expect a slow start to the season despite the hyperactive forecasts you maybe reading on the internet right now.


https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... plit&time=


All of these things contribute to our overall weather pattern for May as well as the upcoming summer. Interesting IMO to say the least.

[tron777]

[tron777]

After a refreshing low of 52 at CVG this morning, despite some high clouds, we've managed to get up to 73 with a dew of 57 as of 11:35 am. Most folks should be on either side of 80 for the high today. Low to mid 80s for everyone tomorrow so it'll be a toasty one for early May! The record high at CVG for 5/2 is 90 degrees set back in 1957. We will fall short of that, but I could see us hitting 86 or 87 potentially. Then, we shall see what happens on Friday. Does the rain hold off until the second half of the day, or as the GFS continues to advertise, we see the rain in the morning instead.

[tron777]

I took a peak at the 12Z GEFS and 0Z EPS and per the ensemble guidance, there are hints at a more +PNA pattern trying to show up in model fantasy land. This would be for around mid month. Maybe some blocking over Canada too. That would mean cooler temps more 60s and 70s versus the string of 80s we have been seeing for a while now. Maybe some cut off lows too? Again, it is model la la land so being cautious if not a bit skeptical is a wise move at this early stage of the game. IMO for at least the next 10 days or so, the current -PNA pattern we have been talking about should continue.

[Bgoney]

Looks like models are coming together for Friday’s light rain to begin in cvgland near the noon -3pm range.

[tpweather]

I agree Bgoney and the Euro wants to hang on longer for the rain to end on Saturday. Sort of disjointed with the rain but I will go 0.25-.5 for most but like any system if you get a quick thundershower the totals can be somewhat higher. If the Euro is correct the higher totals may be the way to go

[tron777]

I think those amounts look good Tim. Friday throughout most of next week looks busy from time to time. Still thinking Wednesday of next week offers up a possible day for severe wx but we have plenty of time to keep an eye on that. I don't expect any severe wx before then though. 80 at CVG, 81 here for today. Let's see how high we can go tomorrow. Thinking 85 to 87 degree range for CVG ought to do it.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 80, DAY 81 and CMH 83 today.

[airwolf76]

id say the frost and freezes are done for. time to get planting guys

[tron777]

id say the frost and freezes are done for. time to get planting guys

See the Outdoor and Nature subforum. We are way ahead of you around here! I planted last weekend. I have not planted in April for many years. Just goes to show how mild it's been in the OV. Everything has been running weeks ahead of schedule.

[tron777]

Well folks... today is the last forecasted completely dry day so if you need to mow or get something done outside, today is your day to do so. Let's see how my 85-87 call does at CVG for the high today. As has been well advertised, the active pattern begins Friday with likely POPS. 50 / 50 POPS over the weekend then back to likely for the majority of next week. Again, as far as severe wx goes, I continue to keep one eye open for Wed of next week. From Friday thru Wed of next week, most folks should pick up 1-2" of rain thru the period.

[tron777]

The boys are also keeping one eye open for the middle of next week.

The next somewhat stronger signal for storms arrives mid-week as the
upper level trough in the northern stream occludes with its surface
low, pulling the cold front through the Ohio Valley. Interestingly,
both CIPS Analog Guidance and Colorado State Machine Learning both
light up during this time. However, right now we`re still too early
to really have much confidence. Will be something to watch.

[tron777]

ILN has raised highs for CVG Land into the upper 80s! Their thinking:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Ongoing fcst remains on track for today, with an unseasonably
warm afternoon on tap as highs reach into the mid to upper 80s.
Did bump up temps a degree or two across the board given
plentiful sunshine, especially through the first half of the
day.

A residual boundary remains draped across the heart of the ILN
FA this morning, with sfc DPs ranging from the lower 60s near/S
of the OH Rvr to the upper 40s near the I-70 corridor. Amidst
light southerly sfc flow, would expect that the richer LL
moisture should slowly drift back to the N through the
afternoon. But as it does so, the shallow moisture should also
mix out somewhat (especially for the southern half of the ILN
FA), leading to lower sfc DPs (lower 50s) S of I-70 by late day,
with mid/upper 50s near/N of I-70 toward late afternoon. So with
this in mind, the potential for a few spotty late
afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA should be confined to areas near/W
of I-75 and near/N of I-70, likely "maxing out" in EC IN and WC
OH this evening. Even with this being said, the overall
potential for spotty activity is somewhat low, with the best
coverage centered in the 22z-02z time frame near a corridor from
Fayette/Union Cos IN to Shelby/Auglaize Cos OH. Gusty winds in a
favorable DCAPE environment will be the primary threat with any
stronger cores, but there are questions regarding the intensity
of any storm that is able to develo

[tron777]

[Bgoney]

Looks like hi-res models are going with spotty sprinkles or light rain in the afternoon Friday and then spotty moderate showers overnight into Saturday morning. Not to impressive for most of the region

[tpweather]

Looks like hi-res models are going with spotty sprinkles or light rain in the afternoon Friday and then spotty moderate showers overnight into Saturday morning. Not to impressive for most of the region

Hey Bgoney, I believe they are underestimating the possible rainfall. This is more of a late spring system and the rainfall can be be more tropical in nature. I had 0.25-.5 but I believe that is underdone so going .5-0.75 through midday Saturday with some folks getting more if you get under a nice thundershower. Will see what the models show later today