tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2024 10:22 am
Good Morning and back from the tundra. Wild up there and on Saturday temp got to 64 but a strong southeast coming from Lake Michigan and the feel like temp was in the mid 40's. Got some work done but the winds were a problem the whole time and even on the drive back until we got to Indy or so. Have not looked at much so far but will have a chance later this afternoon
Welcome Home, Tim! Glad that you got back safely. It was very windy here also on Sat and a bit breezy yesterday as well. However, with temps in the 80s outside, it actually felt very nice.
Okay got to look at info and Brian's video. Busy week for him in Louisville of course but another wonderful video. Late tonight and early Tuesday is the first problem and once again I always look at that 4-9A period when you can get a nice dose of rainfall. Where will that area will be focused is still hard to figure this far in advance and like Brian mentioned its a rather narrow band of heavy rainfall. Maybe this evening the models converge on that area but sometimes its just a few hours ahead before we know exactly there this happens. Hard to forecast as the amounts could be anywhere under a 1/4 of an inch if unlucky to over 1 inch if you are in the prime area. Not even sure if any area has a greater shot of more rain but the further south imo gives you better odds. That of course is not the end of the busy weather this week and several chances over the next 7-10 days. We are still okay on rainfall this year but would be nice to see a good 1-3 inches over the next 10 days but not all at once.
Agreed Tim... 1-2" over the next week would be ideal for my hood especially with the crops in for the season. Hopefully, we will see the bulk of the rain at least with this first system at night. I just think our lawns and gardens benefit more due to less in the way of evaporation that we can see during the daytime hours.
76 / 60 as of 1pm at CVG so nice to see the dew point come up a little. The lower levels are trying to moisten up a bit now which is good. Most of the rain is still located over the Wabash River Valley well to our West and SW. A few isolated light showers (probably sprinkles) are currently located over the I-70 Crew zone.
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2024 1:11 pm
76 / 60 as of 1pm at CVG so nice to see the dew point come up a little. The lower levels are trying to moisten up a bit now which is good. Most of the rain is still located over the Wabash River Valley well to our West and SW. A few isolated light showers (probably sprinkles) are currently located over the I-70 Crew zone.
Hey Les and I see where the dews are really not that high to the southwest either. Timing once again will play a part of how the rain pans out overnight into Tuesday morning. If a low pressure and not that strong rides up the front this can do two things and one is slow the front down somewhat plus add a little more lift and probably why some models are spitting out higher amounts. I am not saying this is the final outcome but I understand why you will see these models throw higher totals out. The problem is one run it may be 50 miles west of there,then the next on top us and then the next 50 miles east. So yes somebody can get some amounts over 1 inch with the correct timing but also many folks may stay well below that total and that is because of timing. I believe probably the best way to forecast is between 0.25 and .50 with isolated amounts higher. Again that early morning period is key and where will the front be at that time
Like your amounts Tim for the majority of CVGland (.25-.50”) . I don’t see much thunder getting involved, so any higher amounts as you stated will be isolated. I see the front slowing down as indicative to it weakening and due to the ridging to the SE overpowering its advancement
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Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Good morning all! CVG is checking in with 0.41" as of 4am. Same here for me and at the Boone Co Mesonet. We got a nice drink of water here! Glad I was able to get the mowing in yesterday. The back edge is moving thru the area now. Look for decreasing clouds this afternoon from NW to SE. Then, the 80s return for Wed and Thurs with our next rain and t-storm chance coming on Friday. Scattered storm chances continue this weekend on into next week as well.
Good Morning and Les like you mentioned a nice drink of water overnight. Rather widespread as well and perfect to happen at night. Give me 2 of these systems a week for the next 8 weeks and that would be perfect.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2024 6:19 am
Good Morning and Les like you mentioned a nice drink of water overnight. Rather widespread as well and perfect to happen at night. Give me 2 of these systems a week for the next 8 weeks and that would be perfect.
Good morning Tim! I wish Mother Nature would work that way too! 0.64" as of 6am at CVG, Perfect!
Good Morning Les!! That would be perfect and at least for the next 7-10 days the pattern is busy for us and folks in the plains which is great news for them as well. So far this spring its the mountain west states that are dry and some of the longer term models showing this area to remain dry into early summer. Of course models see the area is already dry and just getting normal rainfall for them which is not much will keep the areas dry and most likely hotter than normal. Locally we need to watch the plains states because if they get dry once again then the hot air can spread rather quickly but if they remain wet which some longer term models show then that helps in keeping the heat down somewhat. Again way to early and usually its not until June before we have some decent agreement on the summer forecast.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Awesome!!! Glad to see everyone cashing in for a change. Good deal! The May thread has been started for us to discuss the new month and as you mentioned Tim, the 1st half of the month certainly looks active and I am perfectly okay with that.
CVG tacked on a bit more so now we are up to 0.70" as of 8am. Per radar, the last batch of showers are pushing thru now. Clear skies and drier air has already pushed its way into the NW half of Indiana so by late morning, we could see some sun breaks in our NW and around lunchtime for the Cincy Metro. Early afternoon or so for those out East,
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Seeing some blue sky now in Mason with a bit of sun as well. N winds behind the front will continue to usher in drier air so a nice afternoon is ahead. 67 as of the 11am reading at CVG. Low to mid 70s should work for most locations.
I think the grass here at work just grew an inch during lunch
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Love the reports guys! Thanks! Once we get some heat applied tomorrow and Thurs, things will really be taking off! Glad I was able to get my mowing in yesterday late afternoon prior to the rains coming in.
71 with a dew of 54 at CVG per the 2pm reading. A nice and refreshing air mass this afternoon! We should drop into the 50 to 55 degree range by morning with a drier air mass in place. Nice way to kick off May!
EDIT: Forgot to mention.... look out for patchy dense fog in the morning as well for the AM commute.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Glad that you got back safely. It was very windy here also on Sat and a bit breezy yesterday as well. However, with temps in the 80s outside, it actually felt very nice. 
0.64" as of 6am at CVG, Perfect! 
