April 2024 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

T-storms have arrived here in Mason! Very heavy rain and lots of thunder. Winds to 40 mph also.

[tron777]

As of 4am this morning from the boys:

There is some uncertainty with exactly how this morning`s
activity will affect how things play out for this afternoon.
However, with the strengthening surface low lifting northeast
across Illinois through this afternoon, the boundary currently
along the Ohio River should begin to lift northward across our
area as a warm front through the day, allowing for our area to
get into the warm sector, with surface based capes in the
1000-1500 J/KG range developing through the afternoon.
Impressive deep layer shear of 60-80 knots will be present
across the region, coupled with strong 0-1 km and 0-3 km shear,
leading to the potential for supercell development from mid to
late afternoon, with activity then continuing into early
evening. All severe weather types will be possible this
afternoon into early evening, including the potential for a few
stronger tornadoes.

[tron777]

MD issued by the SPC - A watch is likely to be issued for NKY and SE IN counties this morning:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0340.html

[tpweather]

Happy Birthday to you Doug! You may get a "gift" from Mother Nature also today.

Doug Happy Birthday young man. Hope you have a wonderful day!!!

[tron777]

Well folks... this afternoon is going to be conditional depending on how much CAPE we can get and how far north does the warm front make it after this morning's convection moves on to the east. Shear and helicity will be very very good so we'll see how unstable we can get as well as how steep lapse rates can get. Large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes are all hazards that are in play today.

[BookNerdCarp]

KYC023-041-077-081-161-187-191-201-021600-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.A.0073.240402T1058Z-240402T1600Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 73 IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY

BRACKEN CARROLL GALLATIN
GRANT MASON OWEN
PENDLETON ROBERTSON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF AUGUSTA, BROOKSVILLE, BUTLER,
CARROLLTON, CRITTENDEN, DRY RIDGE, FALMOUTH, MAYSVILLE,
MOUNT OLIVET, OWENTON, WARSAW, AND WILLIAMSTOWN.

[tron777]

This is not the main show just so folks don't get confused. This is the morning round and the watch box is for folks south and east of the Cincy metro area. The main show will be driven by the surface low just west of St. Louis moving NE towards the South side of Chicago / NW Indiana region. The warm front will lift north as the depending low moves NE as the day wears on.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and no doubt a busy day in the weather world. Do we get severe weather and signs with the models and current conditions say there is a really good chance. This morning some tornado warnings near Evansville. Have not seen any rain since the outburst late in the afternoon but expect a nice dose today. Overnight some places to the north and west got a nice dose of rain and some folks like myself got zero. Most folks should get at least an inch before all is said and done and yes some folks will be in the 2-3 inch range an isolated over 4 inches.Late yesterday though the temp rose the humidity did not have that muggy feeling but this morning yes you can feel that and somewhat muggy. Hope everyone stays safe and though severe weather can hit anytime today the most likely time is in the 2-7pm period locally

The current setup continues to show the storms west of here holding up quite nicely so even this morning its possible to see a few severe warnings as this line continues to move north and east though I would expect it to weaken somewhat in the next few hours.

[tpweather]

Of course with the severe weather going on my son is expecting another 4-6 inches of snow as the late season snow parade continues up there

[tron777]

Rainfall totals for the entire event as of 7am (includes rain from Easter Sunday thru now)

CVG - 0.69"
Me - 0.62"
Boone co Mesonet - 0.50"

[tpweather]

Rain has started once again

[tron777]

The back edge is pushing towards Evansville now so there should be plenty of time for the atmosphere to recover one would think. We will know more once we can get a visible satellite shot as well in terms of cloud cover. Currently still getting a t-storm here in Mason.

[tpweather]

I agree Les we have plenty of time to recover. Nice shower with a few rumbles of thunder.

[Bgoney]

Couple of tornado warnings near Louisville

[tpweather]

Couple of tornado warnings near Louisville

Makes sense with this line of storms moving through and you can see on the radar those isolated stronger cells in the line and usually but not always the southern end of a line has a better shot of short lived tornado's. Later today we may have a bigger outbreak but again need to see how things recover though some severe weather likely this afternoon

[Bgoney]

Front still between CVG and ILN

[tron777]

Currently, that line to the west means business! We need to keep an eye on it for sure. I know we've been hit already today but with the front in the area, there could still be enough fuel for the line to maintain itself. Of course on the S end it'll be the most intense closer to the better instability to the south of the boundary.

[tron777]

From NWS LOU:

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 717 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for much of central Kentucky and
portions of far southern Indiana. Storms over the lower Wabash and
Ohio Valleys have produced damaging winds and possible tornadoes as
they head east. The roof of the EOC in Evansville was damaged by
winds that may have been in the 70-80mph range. The atmosphere ahead
of these storms continues to be very favorable for severe weather
with moderately unstable MLCAPE, very low LCLs, steep mid-level
lapse rates, and extremely strong shear. Surface winds are mostly
still from the SSW, but some backing has occurred on Mesonet sites
just ahead of the line. The only minor limiting factors are some
slightly warm temperatures showing up on ACARS soundings around
700mb and just weak to moderate low level lapse rates.

Note that while these storms must be taken very seriously as they
move in, this round of severe weather is not the expected "main
show" for the day. Supercell development this afternoon will have
the potential to produce damaging winds, very large hail, and
destructive tornadoes.


From NWS IND:

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 707 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

Latest radar imagery shows a large area of stratiform rain covering
much of the CWA. This rain is on the back edge of a large MCS which
is now south and east of our area. Though severe potential has
diminished for the time being, these stratiform regions are
notorious for producing positively charged lightning (both CG and
CC). Additionally, moderate rainfall rates of around a quarter of an
inch per hour are likely. Therefore, we can expect continued
rainfall with occasional thunder and lighting for the next few
hours. While rainfall rates are not high enough for flash flooding
concerns, some ponding of water on roadways remains possible.

Satellite imagery (GOES-16 RGB Nighttime Microphysics) shows rapid
clearing just behind the MCS. This region of clearing is just ahead
of a deepening surface low located over Missouri. As such, expect a
clearing trend not long after this morning`s rain comes to an end.
The clearing, plus a developing low-level jet, will contribute to
eroding the MCS cold pool that`s currently in place. As instability
redevelops, severe potential returns later this afternoon. Stay
tuned for further updates.

[cloudy72]

HAPPY 52ND BIRTHDAY DOUG!!

Enjoy your special day despite the storminess, Wxbuddy!

Happy Birthday, Doug!

[cloudy72]

Had a nice loud gusty storm a couple hours ago...now just a moderate rain.

I really hope we can keep this rain around longer because with the dynamics and parameters in place today, any bout of sunshine will spell big trouble this afternoon. Stay weather aware!!!

[tpweather]

Les I believe we are on the same page as the NWS. The rapid clearing behind this mornings activity is key and something we believed would happen. Like any system there is ups and downs on strength. Though the southern and central plains got hit some yesterday it was not a big outbreak for them and one reason is the system had not really got itself together. That is happening today and why I believe a decent severe outbreak will happen later today. Again Mother Nature has the final say but again will see what is happening around the noon hour and it could be partly cloudy and warm as we wait for more action to fire up. The amount of Cape is way up there between say 1p-10pm

[cloudy72]

Current temp here is 56 - total rainfall thus far 1.21" and still coming down lightly.

Check out the extremes - 70 in Lexington and 42 in Ft Wayne! Dynamic system indeed!

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 52 here in G'ville.

I wouldn't know where to begin looking in my garage packed up somewhere my rain gauge since my folks and my move this past Oct.

That's a flustering part e.g. about a move lol. Sometime this spring when there's a string of sustained mild dry days will try to look for it and finally get it mounted.

[cloudy72]

Anyone see the 03z SREF SigTor probs for this afternoon? Big ole 75% band from Cincy down to Nashville with 60% up to I-70.