March 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

No changes to the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook. Still a marginal risk for us, and a slight risk well to the north. We shall see! We need to get a few peeks of sun in here otherwise IMO it probably isn't going to happen. A band of showers exists lifting NE over Central ILL and there in lies the cold front.

[Bgoney]

Snow amounts so far . Much needed moisture for the Northern plains

IMG_1605.jpeg

[tron777]

BG StormTalk!

[tron777]

A really nice update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
988mb surface cyclone in southwest Wisconsin this morning will
continue to lift north through the day. As the closed mid level
low opens up into the a progressive shortwave trough, this wave
will move quickly from eastern Iowa into western lower Michigan
this evening, driving height falls into the Ohio Valley, but
especially across our northern forecast area this evening. Thus,
arcing cold front across western Illinois this morning will move
more robustly northeastward than it will eastward, surging more
toward northern Indiana and lower Michigan while the southern
portions of the front will slow somewhat, but the front should
clear the entire forecast area by midnight. Threats are two-fold
today as detailed below...

1) Non-convective winds - as 75kt H85 jet rotated across the ILN
forecast area this morning on the back end of warm conveyor rain
band, transient/brief mixing and subsidence allowed a couple of
35-40kt gusts to the surface at CVG/ILN/DAY etc. This low level
jet core is pulling east of the area now, and gusts have settled
back somewhat. Forecast soundings indicate that as areas of low
clouds mix out into more of a general broken mid cloud deck, low
level lapse rates may steepen enough to allow for more ~40mph
gusts to reach the surface, especially north/west of the I-71
corridor. Have no plans to hoist a Wind Advisory at this moment,
but will likely extend the Special Weather Statement through the
afternoon hours to cover additional strong wind gusts that will
develop as the cold front approaches. Tempering the gust
potential on the east side of the forecast area will be a second
surge of light rain/deeper moisture which won`t support as much
warming/mixing as further west. Bottom line - expect many gusts
from 30-35kts today, with gusts exceeding 40kts remaining more
localized/episodic and tied to areas of sunshine and/or
momentum transfer via convective precipitation.

2) Strong/severe storm threat - this will be relegated to
immediately along/ahead of the front as it enters the forecast
area after 4 PM. As mentioned above, best frontal
surge/convergence will develop across southwest
Michigan/northeast Indiana, with an extension down toward west-
central Ohio. Scattered shallow/low topped storms should fill
in to form a quasi-linear shallow convective line by 5 PM as it
enters the Ohio/Indiana border area. Dewpoints are likely to mix
out somewhat ahead of the line, so the CAPE axis will be
extremely narrow, and will remain < 300 j/kg. In fact, it is
questionable if enough low level moistening will allow deep
enough buoyancy for charge separation/lightning. Low level flow
remains strong...and adequate enough for a non-zero convective
wind gust threat with any shower or thunderstorm, and feel best
relative threat in the ILN CWA will be west central Ohio
counties west of I-75 in the 5P-7P timeframe. Further south,
have questions on the amount of convergence and more potential
for low level flow to veer and reduce effective SRH a little as
the front enters. In addition, 0-3km shear vector orientation
has a considerable line-parallel component, however the
magnitude of that vector is still strong enough to overcome that
limitation somewhat. Overall feel the threat categories are
well placed in space and magnitude. Expect as the line further
enters the forecast area past I-75 diurnal instability will wane
quickly and threats diminish.

[tpweather]

Snow amounts so far . Much needed moisture for the Northern plains




IMG_1605.jpeg Yes and brings most places up to normal for the year as they get very little in precip totals during the Dec-Feb period and usually most of that is snow but not this season. Many places up there average less than 2 inches for the period Jan-March so these last couple of systems has been very beneficial. My son in Wausau from the two systems got just over a foot of snow so hopefully his pond is getting fuller. Even the central plains has done well in the last few weeks. Can we keep this up for the next 3 months is key and yes the south and east have done well all year because the stj tended to stay further south and east than a normal El Nino year.

[tron777]

12Z GFS just has a small rain chance on Sat with the warm front. Best chance north of the river. For Easter Sunday, periods of rain / t-storms is being shown. There is some dry time in there but not a ton of it as the front stalls over the area. This is something to watch as the week progresses for those with outdoor plans for the big holiday.

[tron777]

SPS as of 12pm from the boys:

...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON...

Gusty south winds of 35 to 45 mph will be possible through the
middle afternoon hours. The winds will begin to diminish later
this afternoon into the 25 to 35 mph range. Use extra caution
when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle.
Secure loose outdoor items.

[tron777]

So far, severe wx is going to be tough to come by this evening when the front passes. So far, there is only 100 J/KG of CAPE to our West ahead of the cold front. I'd like to see at least 500-1000 which probably isn't happening due to the cloud cover over the area.

[tpweather]

So far, severe wx is going to be tough to come by this evening when the front passes. So far, there is only 100 J/KG of CAPE to our West ahead of the cold front. I'd like to see at least 500-1000 which probably isn't happening due to the cloud cover over the area.

I agree Les and with this second batch of rain covering much of the local area this afternoon not seeing much in the way of sun. Best shot of more rains is south and east but even folks northwest of the CVG may have a few showers.

[tron777]

So far, severe wx is going to be tough to come by this evening when the front passes. So far, there is only 100 J/KG of CAPE to our West ahead of the cold front. I'd like to see at least 500-1000 which probably isn't happening due to the cloud cover over the area.

I agree Les and with this second batch of rain covering much of the local area this afternoon not seeing much in the way of sun. Best shot of more rains is south and east but even folks northwest of the CVG may have a few showers.

Agreed Tim.... most everything rain wise is going to remain SE of I-71 minus the cold front itself. Currently, I only expect a few gusty showers with the front later. Still only seeing 100-250 J/KG of CAPE to our West.

[tpweather]

Just a heads up for Thursday morning as I expect a decent frost as we have moisture in the ground and the dew points will not be like we saw last week. Not sure if this is the last frost of the season but I know some folks have plants outside

[MVWxObserver]

Les, currently 69 here in Cleveland, those strong winds held that lake breeze off nicely today.

Looks like CVG topped out at 69 also. Hope you are doing well Bro!

Hi Les,

Both CVG and DAY reached 70 and CMH 71.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

Just a heads up for Thursday morning as I expect a decent frost as we have moisture in the ground and the dew points will not be like we saw last week. Not sure if this is the last frost of the season but I know some folks have plants outside

I do not think we are anywhere near close to being done with frost. I caution those who plant early (non hearty plants).

[tron777]

Nice little broken line of storms coming into the area with the cold front. Good luck to all! Nothing severe is expected. Winds to 40 mph and pea sized hail would be worst case scenario.

[tron777]

I'm actually seeing a touch of sunshine ahead of the line.

I checked the SPC Mesopage and there is 100-250 j/KG for CAPE here, a pocket of 500 down towards LOU. I suspect the isolated severe threat, if there was any, would be done to our SW.

[Bgoney]

.35” for event here

[tron777]

Mark me down for a quarter.

[MVWxObserver]

One SVR warning that was se Darke Co heading into Miami Co.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG / DAY both got to 63 and CMH 60 today.

[tron777]

Good morning! We will see what the hi-res models show later on this week but for now, the globals have a small rain chance Sat mainly in the afternoon as a front drops in. The front then sinks south of us and comes back north on Easter. Rain returns during the afternoon and evening hours. So right now, most folks maybe good on Sat for Easter Egg Hunts or early Sun morning. Looking wet for Sun night thru Tues of next week. So April starts off on a wet note. The front sinks south of us during the water off by Wed of next week. Let's see if we can get an inch or so of rain out of this next multiday event.

[Bgoney]

IMG_1611.jpeg

[Bgoney]

Reading up on the ongoing switcheroo to LaNina and looks like a fairly rapid one at that . Sub-surface cool pool has rapidly intensified/expanded since the new year with mostly easterlies dominating. Next 3 months those cool waters will finally break to the surface and spread across 3.4 region. Right now conditions on par with strong/ moderately strong LaNina by fall. Not exactly what we what to see.

IMG_1612.gif

[tron777]

Reading up on the ongoing switcheroo to LaNina and looks like a fairly rapid one at that . Sub-surface cool pool has rapidly intensified/expanded since the new year with mostly easterlies dominating. Next 3 months those cool waters will finally break to the surface and spread across 3.4 region. Right now conditions on par with strong/ moderately strong LaNina by fall. Not exactly what we what to see.



IMG_1612.gif

Not at all. A weak to mod event would put us more on a 95-96 or 2010-2011 note, but a strong one could spell more mild and snowless conditions. The Triple Dip La Nina winters weren't all that good to us either.

[Bgoney]

Reading up on the ongoing switcheroo to LaNina and looks like a fairly rapid one at that . Sub-surface cool pool has rapidly intensified/expanded since the new year with mostly easterlies dominating. Next 3 months those cool waters will finally break to the surface and spread across 3.4 region. Right now conditions on par with strong/ moderately strong LaNina by fall. Not exactly what we what to see.



IMG_1612.gif

Not at all. A weak to mod event would put us more on a 95-96 or 2010-2011 note, but a strong one could spell more mild and snowless conditions. The Triple Dip La Nina winters weren't all that good to us either.

I hope the PDO region stops cooling, that combo of -PDO/LaNina just hasn’t been kind to the mid section of the country as far as drought conditions go